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Climate change adaptation and mitigation remain critical to achieving sustainable development while reducing climate vulnerability, particularly among climate-exposed and sensitive regions. Yet, achieving a balance between climate-resilience pathways, high economic productivity, high human development, and energy efficiency appears complex, leading to potential trade-offs. Here, we examine the overarching effect of the diversified energy portfolio, socio-economic drivers, and governance adaptation readiness on Climate change vulnerability across 212 economies. Contrary to the poor conventional panel techniques reported in the existing literature, we employ novel machine learning and dynamic panel estimation techniques that control for chaos, nonlinearity, mutual coupling, and heterogeneity in dynamic systems. The convergent cross-mapping causality technique reveals mutual coupling effects between energy portfolio, governance readiness, socio-economic drivers, and climate change vulnerability. The rapidly increasing population and increasing demand for resources under the business-as-usual society and economic structure that normalizes unsustainable development pathways due to weak governance structures create ineffective climate-resilient policies that lead to unabated emissions with consequences on climate change. The effect of social and governance readiness leads the transformation process to attain sustainable development. Thus, high social and governance readiness spurs climate resilience through climate change adaptation and mitigation to achieve sustainable development. Alternative (renewables) and nuclear energy have displacement effects on fossil fuels, yet, the magnitude of displacement is not large enough to replace future fossil fuel consumption. Conversely, a low-carbon future is still attainable by replacing the fossil energy portfolio with more natural gas and carbon-abatement technologies. Our study demonstrates that energy innovations are useful climate-resilience pathways that lessen climate change vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future projections indicate an expansion for both food and energy demands, which can increase pressure on land use, while there is an urgent global need for climate change mitigation. Bioenergy is foreseen as key option to meet future energy demands and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, however its sustainability depends on locations and regional characteristics. Simultaneously, agricultural production models that co-produce food, feed, and energy offer sustainability synergies and co-benefits, but site-specific sustainability assessments of their large-scale implementation are missing. This study presents a bottom-up approach to assess spatially explicit sustainability aspects of bioenergy-livestock integrated systems (BLI) in Brazil and shed light on their contribution to future energy demands, to climate change mitigation targets, and their impacts on selected ecosystem services, including bioenergy production, climate change mitigation, reduction of food competition, biodiversity conservation, and avoided deforestation. The proposed integration considers livestock intensification and use of biofuels by-products as animal feed supplement, taking advantage of synergies between these two value chains. The expansion of the BLI system in the Center-South region of Brazil produce up to 89 billion liters of ethanol, enough to meet future domestic ethanol demands from multiple shared socioeconomic pathways and generating surpluses for export. This production takes place on 16 million hectares of pastureland within the Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning, excluding the Amazon and Pantanal biomes, and biodiversity hotspots. BLI expansion mitigate up to 250 million tonnes of CO 2 eq and generate 15 billion dollars of profits. The best locations to maximize the selected ecosystem services are west of São Paulo, east of Mato Grosso do Sul, and the south-central region of the states of Goiás. This study may encourage the formulation of enhanced public policies for the integration of bioenergy and livestock value chains and guide a sustainable large-scale deployment of BLI systems. • Bioenergy and livestock integration (BLI): co-production of food, feed and energy. • BLI systems: 89 billion liters of ethanol and 250 million tonnes of CO 2 eq mitigated. • Enough ethanol to meet future Brazilian demands and surplus to be exported. • Biomass expansion only on pastureland inside Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning. • Without land displacement and deforestation of native vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mitigation of climate change is the main issue for environmental policymakers. A large number of authors analysed the impact of various factors on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this paper, we proposed a multiplicative approach to use 2- and 3-way interactions simultaneously in order to analyse the effects of energy efficiency, renewable energy and sector mix as the moderators that shape the economic activity – environmental degradation nexus. The results encompassing global panel data show that the turning point increased from 1990 to 1995 to 2002–2007 and decreased afterwards. Considering the analysis of moderators, a high share of agriculture and industry sectors make the curve flat with a positive slope and a high level of economic activity was associated with more GHG emissions with no turning point. The marginal effect of energy efficiency to reduce the negative impact of agriculture and industry sectors was growing. Meanwhile, the marginal effect of renewables to reduce the negative impact of agriculture and industry sectors was diminishing. Service sector and energy efficiency, service sector and renewables worked as the substituting forces reducing GHG emissions with a diminishing marginal rate of substitution. Therefore, this study confirms that the economic activity – environmental degradation relationship is very complex and further studies should consider the role of the moderators of this nexus. [Display omitted] • Technique, composition effects should be considered as moderators of HGH emissions. • The multiplicative approach was applied to model interactions of GHG factors. • Agriculture, industry sectors made the economic activity GHG emissions curve flat. • Marginal effect of renewables to reduce GHG emissions was diminishing. • Service sector and renewables worked as substituting forces reducing emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]