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Carbon emissions elimination in the rapid urbanization areas contributes to regional sustainable development and global climate change mitigation. With the target of carbon neutrality, the global top-class Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration which confronts with the dual pressure of excess carbon emissions and shrink ecological space has increased its carbon reduction coordination cooperation, among which energy consumption carbon emission control and natural resource sink maintenance have been recognized as the key strategy. However, the study on carbon balance prediction is lack and the amount of energy consumption carbon emissions in the future can be offset by the ecological carbon sink is still unknown. To estimate the gap to carbon neutrality, this study proposes a framework for carbon offset analysis and prediction which takes various carbon emission scenarios and the potential of natural resource on carbon reduction into consideration. After the framework conduction in the agglomeration, it is revealed that the regional least carbon emissions of 29.51 Mt mainly derive from the population and economic growth brought by urbanization process, while the carbon sink predicted to be 2552.31 Kt is still far to cover the emissions. With the regional carbon offset rate decline from 0.68% to 0.63%, the ecological carbon sink in Beijing will offset 1.21% of its carbon emission, while the least ecological space keep city Tianjin is predicted to suffer the lowest offset rate of 0.09%. The research results contribute to recognize the key factors on carbon emission control and key areas for carbon maintenance in following years, as well as narrowing the gap to neutrality with both consideration of carbon emission reduction and sink maintenance. [Display omitted] • Framework on energy consumption carbon offset analysis was established. • Regional carbon emissions, sinks and offset rate were predicted. • Drop from 0.68% in 2020 to 0.63% in 2030, the declining offset rate indicates the gap to neutrality is still large. • Implications for each area's carbon emission offset rate improvement were discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy consumption is a crucial aspect of global sustainability efforts, particularly in light of climate change mitigation and the pursuit of energy security. Technological innovation can play a pivotal role in driving the advancement and adoption of renewable energy. However, geopolitical risks can exert profound influences on the landscape of renewable energy deployment, posing challenges to energy security and the transition to a sustainable energy future. This study contributes to the existing literature by providing new empirical evidence on how geopolitical risk, along with technological innovation, environmental taxes, and environmental degradation affect renewable energy consumption in G7 countries. The findings indicate that geopolitical risks exert a negative influence on renewable energy consumption in G7 countries, whereas environmental degradation, technological advancements, and environmental taxes have positive effects. The results further indicate that at different quantile levels, the impact of each variable on renewable energy consumption has heterogeneous characteristics. Panel Grager causality results revealed a one-way causal relationship between environmental taxes and renewable energy consumption, while other variables have a two-way causal relationship with renewable energy consumption. Based on the results, the study suggests design policies to address geopolitical tension, increased funding for research and development to drive technological innovation, and supportive regulatory frameworks that incentivize renewable energy investment and innovation to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7). • Explored the determinants of renewable energy consumption in G7 countries. • Advanced panel data estimation methods are employed. • Geopolitical risk negatively affects renewable energy consumption. • Technological innovation and taxes promote renewable energy consumption. • Designed a policy framework to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]