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In Canada and other countries, osteoporosis is monitored as part of chronic disease population surveillance programs. Although fractures are the principal manifestation of osteoporosis, very few algorithms are available to identify individuals at high risk of osteoporotic fractures in current surveillance systems. The objective of this study was to derive and validate predictive models to accurately identify individuals at high risk of osteoporotic fracture using information available in healthcare administrative data. More than 270,000 men and women aged ≥66 years were randomly selected from the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System. Selected individuals were followed between fiscal years 2006-2007 and 2015-2016. Models were constructed for prediction of hip/femur and major osteoporotic fractures for follow-up periods of 5 and 10 years. A total of 62 potential predictors measurable in healthcare administrative databases were identified. Predictor selection was performed using a manual backward algorithm. The predictive performance of the final models was assessed using measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance. Between 20 and 25 predictors were retained in the final prediction models (eg, age, sex, social deprivation index, most of the major and minor risk factors for osteoporosis, diabetes, Parkinson's disease, cognitive impairment, anemia, anxio-depressive disorders). Discrimination of the final models was higher for the prediction of hip/femur fracture than major osteoporotic fracture and higher for prediction for a 5-year than a 10-year period (hip/femur fracture for 5 years: c-index = 0.77; major osteoporotic fracture for 5 years: c-index = 0.71; hip/femur fracture for 10 years: c-index = 0.73; major osteoporotic fracture for 10 years: c-index = 0.68). The predicted probabilities globally agreed with the observed probabilities. In conclusion, the derived models had adequate predictive performance in internal validation. As a final step, these models should be validated in an external cohort and used to develop indicators for surveillance of osteoporosis. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR)., (© 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).)

Whether fracture prediction tools developed for the management of osteoporosis can be used in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is poorly known. We aimed to compare the performance of fracture prediction tools in non-CKD and CKD. We analyzed CARTaGENE, a population-based survey of 40-year-old to 69-year-old individuals recruited between 2009 and 2010. Renal function was assessed using baseline creatinine and categorized according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines (non-CKD, stage 2, stage 3). Individuals without creatinine measurements or with advanced CKD (stage 4 or 5; prevalence <0.25%) were excluded. Predicted 5-year fracture probabilities (using Fracture Risk Assessment Tool [FRAX], QFracture, and Garvan) were computed at baseline. Fracture incidence (major fracture [MOF] or any fracture) was evaluated in administrative databases from recruitment to March 2016. Discrimination (hazard ratios [HRs] per standard deviation [SD] increase in Cox models; c-statistics) and calibration (standardized incidence ratios [SIRs] before and after recalibration) were assessed in each CKD strata. We included 19,393 individuals (9522 non-CKD; 9114 stage 2; 757 stage 3). A total of 830 patients had any fracture during follow-up, including 352 MOF. FRAX (HR = 1.89 [1.63-2.20] non-CKD; 1.64 [1.41-1.91] stage 2; 1.76 [1.10-2.82] stage 3) and QFracture (HR = 1.90 [1.62-2.22] non-CKD; 1.57 [1.35-1.82] stage 2; 1.86 [1.19-2.91] stage 3) discriminated MOF similarly in non-CKD and CKD. In contrast, the discrimination of Garvan for any fracture tended to be lower in CKD stage 3 compared to non-CKD and CKD stage 2 (HR = 1.36 [1.22-1.52] non-CKD; 1.34 [1.20-1.50] stage 2; 1.11 [0.79-1.55] stage 3). Before recalibration, FRAX globally overestimated fracture risk while QFracture and Garvan globally underestimated fracture risk. After recalibration, FRAX and QFracture were adequately calibrated for MOF in all CKD strata whereas Garvan tended to underestimate any fracture risk in CKD stage 3 (SIR = 1.31 [0.95-1.81]). In conclusion, the discrimination and calibration of FRAX and QFracture is similar in non-CKD and CKD. Garvan may have a lower discrimination in CKD stage 3 and underestimate fracture risk in these patients. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research., (© 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.)

Prognostic tools are available to identify individuals at high risk of osteoporotic fracture and to assist physicians in management decisions. Some authors have suggested improving the predictive ability of these tools by integrating characteristics of prior fractures (number, location, and time since prior fracture). The objectives of this study were: (1) to evaluate the sex- and age-specific associations between characteristics of prior fractures and the occurrence of a future osteoporotic fracture; and (2) to assess whether the characteristics of prior fractures could increase the discriminative ability of fracture risk prediction tools. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using administrative data. Men and women aged ≥66 years were selected and grouped into two cohorts. In cohort #1 (N = 759,500), history of fractures was measured between fiscal years 1997-1998 and 2003-2004, and future fractures were identified between 2004-2005 and 2013-2014. In cohort #2 (N = 807,245), history of fractures was measured between 1997-1998 and 2008-2009, and future fractures were identified between 2009-2010 and 2013-2014. Time until a first hip/femur and major osteoporotic fracture were the outcomes of interest. Adjusted HRs and c-indices were calculated. The association between history of prior fractures and future fracture was stronger in men and younger individuals. The locations of prior fractures associated with the lowest and highest risks were foot/ankle/tibia/fibula (maximal HR = 1.64) and hip/femur (maximal HR = 9.02), respectively. The association was stronger for recent fractures (maximal HR = 4.93), but was still significant for fractures occurring 10 to 12 years prior to the beginning of follow-up (maximal HR = 1.99). Characteristics of prior fractures did not increase model discrimination. Our study confirms that the risk of future fracture increases with the number of prior fractures, varies according to prior fracture location, and decreases with time since prior fracture. However, the integration of these characteristics in current fracture risk prediction tools is not required because it does not improve predictive ability. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research., (© 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.)

Despite the multitude of studies published on atypical femoral fractures (AFFs), a profile for patients at risk does not exist. This study aimed first at estimating AFF incidence over a 19-month-period in Quebec City using the ASBMR Task force criteria to define AFF. The medical records of patients hospitalized for hip or femoral fracture between June 1, 2009, and December 31, 2010, were reviewed. Thirty-six cases of atypical fractures were identified during the 19-month period, representing an AFF incidence of 7.0 (range, 4.7 to 9.3) cases per 100,000 person-years. In the second part of the study, data regarding the characteristics suspected of increasing the risks of AFF were collected from medical and pharmacological records, proximal femur radiographs, and patient interviews. The data regarding each patient with an AFF during years 2008-2011 were compared to two controls with a hip or femoral fragility fracture or a traumatic fracture, paired for age and sex. Twenty patients with AFF were added to the 36 patients with AFF selected in the first part, thereby 56 patients with AFF were investigated. The association between the occurrence of AFF and bisphosphonates (BPs) use was proven statistically significant in multivariate analysis, odds ratio (OR) = 10.39 (95% CI, 2.22 to 48.58; p = 0.0029). Compared to controls, patients with AFF had excessive femoral offset (43.1 mm versus 38.3 mm, p = 0.0007), proximal femoral neck angle in varus (128.9 degrees versus 134.0 degrees, p < 0.0001), and had greater proximal cortical thickness. This retrospective study confirms the low incidence of AFF, confirms its significant association with exposure to BPs, and reveals the possible contribution of proximal femoral geometry in AFF occurrence., (© 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.)

Age-standardized rates of hip fracture in Canada declined during the period 1985 to 2005. We investigated whether this incidence pattern is explained by period effects, cohort effects, or both. All hospitalizations during the study period with primary diagnosis of hip fracture were identified. Age- and sex-specific hip fracture rates were calculated for nineteen 5-year age groups and four 5-year calendar periods, resulting in 20 birth cohorts. The effect of age, calendar period, and birth cohort on hip fracture rates was assessed using age-period-cohort models as proposed by Clayton and Schiffers. From 1985 to 2005, a total of 570,872 hospitalizations for hip fracture were identified. Age-standardized rates for hip fracture have progressively declined for females and males. The annual linear decrease in rates per 5-year period were 12% for females and 7% for males (both p < 0.0001). Significant birth cohort effects were also observed for both sexes (p < 0.0001). Cohorts born before 1950 had a higher risk of hip fracture, whereas those born after 1954 had a lower risk. After adjusting for age and constant annual linear change (drift term common to both period and cohort effects), we observed a significant nonlinear birth cohort effect for males (p = 0.0126) but not for females (p = 0.9960). In contrast, the nonlinear period effect, after adjustment for age and drift term, was significant for females (p = 0.0373) but not for males (p = 0.2515). For males, we observed no additional nonlinear period effect after adjusting for age and birth cohort, whereas for females, we observed no additional nonlinear birth cohort effect after adjusting for age and period. Although hip fracture rates decreased in both sexes, different factors may explain these changes. In addition to the constant annual linear decrease, nonlinear birth cohort effects were identified for males, and calendar period effects were identified for females as possible explanations., Competing Interests: All authors state that they have no conflicts of interest. All authors had no restrictions on access to raw data or statistical analyses., (Copyright © 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.)

A patient-level Markov decision model was used to simulate a virtual cohort of 500,000 women 40 years old and over, in relation to osteoporosis-related hip, clinical vertebral, and wrist bone fractures events. Sixteen different screening options of three main scenario groups were compared: (1) the status quo (no specific national prevention program); (2) a universal primary prevention program; and (3) a universal screening and treatment program based on the 10-year absolute risk of fracture. The outcomes measured were total directs costs from the perspective of the public health care system, number of fractures, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Results show that an option consisting of a program promoting physical activity and treatment if a fracture occurs is the most cost-effective (CE) (cost/fracture averted) alternative and also the only cost saving one, especially for women 40 to 64 years old. In women who are 65 years and over, bone mineral density (BMD)-based screening and treatment based on the 10-year absolute fracture risk calculated using a Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) tool is the best next alternative. In terms of cost-utility (CU), results were similar. For women less than 65 years old, a program promoting physical activity emerged as cost-saving but BMD-based screening with pharmacological treatment also emerged as an interesting alternative. In conclusion, a program promoting physical activity is the most CE and CU option for women 40 to 64 years old. BMD screening and pharmacological treatment might be considered a reasonable alternative for women 65 years old and over because at a healthcare capacity of $50,000 Canadian dollars ($CAD) for each additional fracture averted or for one QALY gained its probabilities of cost-effectiveness compared to the program promoting physical activity are 63% and 75%, respectively, which could be considered socially acceptable. Consideration of the indirect costs could change these findings., (Copyright © 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.)

The purposes of this study were to assess direct medical resource utilization related to the treatment of nonvertebral osteoporotic fractures within 1 year postfracture and to evaluate whether age impacts resource utilization. A previously-validated algorithm for physician claims databases identified 15,327 women aged 50 years or older with incident fracture at nonvertebral osteoporotic sites between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2005. Administrative databases of the health services available to all residents in Quebec served to study fracture-related health resource utilization in the year after fracture. Data were linked by a unique personal identifier, creating a longitudinal cohort of all fracture cases for health resource utilization. The proportions of fractures treated by open reduction, closed reduction, immobilization or follow-up by an orthopedic surgeon (OS) were evaluated. The mean number of claims for consultation with an OS or other clinicians in inpatient and outpatient visits, the hospitalization rate and length of stay (LOS) were assessed. Hip/femur fractures represented the highest rate of resource utilization because the majority of them required surgery (91.1%) and hospitalization (94.5%) with a mean (median) LOS of 39.2 (31) days. However, other nonvertebral fracture types needed significant clinical care related to surgery (27.9%), follow-up consultation with an OS (77.6%), and hospitalization (27.3% of total LOS). Even pelvic fractures, which often do not require surgical treatment, commanded high resource utilization due to the high hospitalization rate (67.4%) with mean (median) LOS of 34.2 (26) days. Moreover, age was an important determinant of health resource utilization, being associated with an increased number of visits to other physicians, hospitalization, and length of hospitalization (LOS), admissions to long term care (LTC), and death. Osteoporosis-related fractures accounted for substantial healthcare resource utilization. With an aging population and increased prevalence of fractures, strategies for osteoporosis management need to be introduced to reduce the healthcare burden., (Copyright © 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.)