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To determine the extent to which excess mortality after fractures attributable to particular causes at specific skeletal sites can be predicted using data about all medical diagnoses, we conducted a historical cohort study among 1991 Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents aged ≥ 50 years who experienced any fracture in 1989 to 1991 and who were followed passively for up to 22 years for death from any cause. We used a machine learning approach, gradient boosting machine (GBM) modeling, to determine whether the comorbid conditions present at the time of fracture and those that arose subsequently could, in aggregate, identify patients at the greatest increased risk of death. During 21,867 person-years of follow-up, 1245 deaths were observed when 1061 were expected (standardized mortality ratio, 1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-1.2). Patients presented with a median history of 26 comorbid conditions each as assessed by the Clinical Classification Software system and 57 each over the total duration of follow-up. Using all available information, the excess deaths could be predicted with good accuracy (c-index ≥ 0.80) in 89% of the GBM models built for patients with different types of fracture; in one-third of the models, the c-index was ≥ 0.90. The conditions most prominent in the GBM prediction models were also reflected in the specific causes of death that were elevated, suggesting the influence of confounding on the relationship. However, the predominant comorbid conditions were mainly those responsible for mortality in the general population, rather than the specific diseases most closely associated with secondary osteoporosis. To reduce long-term deaths in the fracture population as a whole, a more general approach to the fracture patient is indicated.

To assess recent trends in fracture incidence from all causes at all skeletal sites, we used the comprehensive (inpatient and outpatient) data resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to estimate rates for Olmsted County, MN, USA, residents in 2009 to 2011 compared with similar data from 1989 to 1991. During the 3-year study period, 2009 to 2011, 3549 residents ≥50 years of age experienced 5244 separate fractures. The age- and sex-adjusted (to the 2010 US white population) incidence of any fracture was 2704 per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 2614 to 2793) and that for all fractures was 4017 per 100,000 (95% CI 3908 to 4127). Fracture incidence increased with age in both sexes, but age-adjusted rates were 49% greater among the women. Overall, comparably adjusted fracture incidence rates increased by 11% (from 3627 to 4017 per 100,000 person-years; p = 0.008) between 1989 to 1991 and 2009 to 2011. This was mainly attributable to a substantial increase in vertebral fractures (+47% for both sexes combined), which was partially offset by a decline in hip fractures (-25%) among the women. There was also a 26% reduction in distal forearm fractures among the women; an increase in distal forearm fractures among men aged 50 years and over was not statistically significant. The dramatic increase in vertebral fractures, seen in both sexes and especially after age 75 years, was attributable in part to incidentally diagnosed vertebral fractures. However, the fall in hip fracture incidence, observed in most age groups, continues the steady decline observed among women in this community since 1950. More generally, these data indicate that the dramatic increases in the incidence of fractures at many skeletal sites that were observed decades ago have now stabilized.

Advanced bone imaging with quantitative computed tomography (QCT) has had limited success in significantly improving fracture prediction beyond standard areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measurements. Thus, we examined whether a machine learning paradigm, gradient boosting machine (GBM) modeling, which can incorporate diverse measurements of bone density and geometry from central QCT imaging and of bone microstructure from high-resolution peripheral QCT imaging, can improve fracture prediction. We studied two cohorts of postmenopausal women: 105 with and 99 without distal forearm fractures (Distal Forearm Cohort) and 40 with at least one grade 2 or 3 vertebral deformity and 78 with no vertebral fracture (Vertebral Cohort). Within each cohort, individual bone density, structure, or strength variables had areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) ranging from 0.50 to 0.84 (median 0.61) for discriminating women with and without fracture. Using all possible variables in the GBM model, the AUCs were close to 1.0. Fracture predictions in the Vertebral Cohort using the GBM models built with the Distal Forearm Cohort had AUCs of 0.82-0.95, while predictions in the Distal Forearm Cohort using models built with the Vertebral Cohort had AUCs of 0.80-0.83. Attempts at capturing a comparable parametric model using the top variables from the Distal Forearm Cohort resulted in resulted in an AUC of 0.81. Relatively high AUCs for differing fracture types suggest that an underlying fracture propensity is being captured by this modeling approach. More complex modeling, such as with GBM, creates stronger fracture predictions and may allow deeper insights into information provided by advanced bone imaging techniques.

Although age-related variations in areal bone mineral density (aBMD) and the prevalence of osteoporosis have been well characterized, there is a paucity of data on femoral strength in the population. Addressing this issue, we used finite-element analysis of quantitative computed tomographic scans to assess femoral strength in an age-stratified cohort of 362 women and 317 men, aged 21 to 89 years, randomly sampled from the population of Rochester, MN, and compared femoral strength with femoral neck aBMD. Percent reductions over adulthood were much greater for femoral strength (55% in women, 39% in men) than for femoral neck aBMD (26% in women, 21% in men), an effect that was accentuated in women. Notable declines in strength started in the mid-40s for women and one decade later for men. At advanced age, most of the strength deficit for women compared with men was a result of this decade-earlier onset of strength loss for women, this factor being more important than sex-related differences in peak bone strength and annual rates of bone loss. For both sexes, the prevalence of "low femoral strength" (

Bone structure, strength, and load-strength ratios contribute to forearm fracture risk independently of areal BMD. Introduction: Technological and conceptual advances provide new opportunities for evaluating the contributions of bone density, structure, and strength to the pathogenesis of distal forearm fractures. Materials and Methods: From an age-stratified random sample of Rochester, MN, women, we compared 18 with a distal forearm fracture (cases) to 18 age-matched women with no osteoporotic fracture (controls). High-resolution pQCT was used to assess volumetric BMD (vBMD), geometry, and microstructure at the ultradistal radius, the site of Colles' fractures. Failure loads in the radius were estimated from microfinite element (μFE) models derived from pQCT. Differences between case and control women were assessed, and the risk of fracture associated with each variable was estimated by logistic regression analysis. Results: Given similar heights, estimated loading in a fall on the outstretched arm was the same in cases and controls. However, women with forearm fractures had inferior vBMD, geometry, microstructure, and estimated bone strength. Relative risks for the strongest determinant of fracture in each of the five main variable categories were as follows: BMD (total vBMD: OR per SD change, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.4–12), geometry (cortical thickness: OR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.4–11), microstructure (trabecular number: OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.02–5.1), and strength (axial rigidity: OR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.4–10); the factor-of-risk (fall load/μFE failure load) was 24% greater (worse) in cases (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.2–7.5). Areas under ROC curves ranged from 0.72 to 0.82 for these parameters. Conclusions: Bone geometry, microstructure, and strength contribute to forearm fractures, as does BMD, and these additional determinants of risk promise greater insights into fracture pathogenesis.

In an age- and sex-stratified population sample (n = 700), we estimated fall-related loads and bone strength indices at the UDR and FN. These load/strength ratios more closely simulated patterns of wrist and hip fractures occurring in the same population than did measurement of vBMD. Introduction: Areal BMD measurements, although associated with fracture risk, incompletely explain patterns of fragility fractures. Moreover, population-based assessments relating applied loads and whole bone strength to fracture patterns have not been made. Materials and Methods: Using QCT, we assessed volumetric BMD (vBMD), cross-sectional geometry, and axial (EA) and flexural (EI) rigidities (indices of bone's resistance to compressive and bending loads, respectively) at the ultradistal radius (UDR) and femoral neck (FN) and estimated the loads applied to the wrist and hip during a fall. We used fall load (FL)/bone strength ratios to estimate fracture risk. Results: vBMD in young adults was similar between sexes. Decreases in vBMD over life were also similar (30% and 28%) at UDR but were somewhat greater (46% and 34%) at FN in women versus men, respectively. In young adults, FL/strength ratios at UDR were 32–51% lower (better) in men than in women and increased (worsened) over life less in men (+4% to +22%) than in women (+20% to +33%). In young adults, FL/strength ratios at FN were only marginally better in men than in women but worsened less over life in men (+22% to +36%) than in women (+40% to +62%). Conclusions: The 6:1 female preponderance and the virtual immunity of men for age-related increases in wrist fractures are largely explained by the more favorable FL/strength ratios at UDR in young adult men (because of larger bone size and more favorable geometry) versus women and to maintaining this advantage over life. The 2-fold lower incidence of hip fractures in men versus women is largely explained by age-related increases (worsening) of FL/bone strength ratios that are only one-half of the increases in women. The moderate increases in these ratios with aging are insufficient to explain the >4-fold increase in hip fracture incidence after age 75 in both sexes, suggesting contributions of other factors, especially the well-documented increased frequency of injurious falls among the elderly.

UNLABELLED: The relationship between BMD and fracture risk was estimated in a meta-analysis of data from 12 cohort studies of approximately 39,000 men and women. Low hip BMD was an important predictor of fracture risk. The prediction of hip fracture with hip BMD also depended on age and z score. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to quantify the relationship between BMD and fracture risk and examine the effect of age, sex, time since measurement, and initial BMD value. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We studied 9891 men and 29,082 women from 12 cohorts comprising EVOS/EPOS, EPIDOS, OFELY, CaMos, Rochester, Sheffield, Rotterdam, Kuopio, DOES, Hiroshima, and 2 cohorts from Gothenburg. Cohorts were followed for up to 16.3 years and a total of 168,366 person-years. The effect of BMD on fracture risk was examined using a Poisson model in each cohort and each sex separately. Results of the different studies were then merged using weighted coefficients. RESULTS: BMD measurement at the femoral neck with DXA was a strong predictor of hip fractures both in men and women with a similar predictive ability. At the age of 65 years, risk ratio increased by 2.94 (95% CI = 2.02-4.27) in men and by 2.88 (95% CI = 2.31-3.59) in women for each SD decrease in BMD. However, the effect was dependent on age, with a significantly higher gradient of risk at age 50 years than at age 80 years. Although the gradient of hip fracture risk decreased with age, the absolute risk still rose markedly with age. For any fracture and for any osteoporotic fracture, the gradient of risk was lower than for hip fractures. At the age of 65 years, the risk of osteoporotic fractures increased in men by 1.41 per SD decrease in BMD (95% CI = 1.33-1.51) and in women by 1.38 per SD (95% CI = 1.28-1.48). In contrast with hip fracture risk, the gradient of risk increased with age. For the prediction of any osteoporotic fracture (and any fracture), there was a higher gradient of risk the lower the BMD. At a z score of -4 SD, the risk gradient was 2.10 per SD (95% CI = 1.63-2.71) and at a z score of -1 SD, the risk was 1.73 per SD (95% CI = 1.59-1.89) in men and women combined. A similar but less pronounced and nonsignificant effect was observed for hip fractures. Data for ultrasound and peripheral measurements were available from three cohorts. The predictive ability of these devices was somewhat less than that of DXA measurements at the femoral neck by age, sex, and BMD value. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that BMD is a risk factor for fracture of substantial importance and is similar in both sexes. Its validation on an international basis permits its use in case finding strategies. Its use should, however, take account of the variations in predictive value with age and BMD.

We studied whether oophorectomy performed after menopause is associated with an increased risk of hip or vertebral fractures in 6295 Study of Osteoporotic Fractures participants. There was no association between postmenopausal oophorectomy and the risk of hip or vertebral fractures. Introduction: Bilateral oophorectomy after natural menopause has been associated with an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures, potentially because of a decline in serum estradiol and testosterone levels after the oophorectomy. We prospectively tested this hypothesis in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF). Materials and Methods: We studied 6295 white women ⩾65 years of age participating in the SOF who were not taking estrogen therapy at baseline. Hip fracture analyses included 708 hip fractures; vertebral fracture analyses included 267 incident vertebral fractures. Baseline serum estradiol and free testosterone values were available in a small subset of participants. Results and Conclusion: There were no significant differences in age, weight, or BMD between the women who underwent postmenopausal oophorectomy (n = 583) and those who did not (n = 5712). Free testosterone levels were significantly lower among women who had a postmenopausal oophorectomy. A history of postmenopausal oophorectomy was not associated with an increased risk of hip (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.1; 95% CI = 0.9-1.5) or vertebral fracture (HR = 0.7; 95% CI = 0.5-1.2). The relationship between oophorectomy and hip fracture was not altered by adding serum estradiol level (HR = 1.3; 95% CI = 0.5-3.2) or serum free testosterone level (HR = 1.7; 95% CI = 0.8-3.7) to the model. In summary, postmenopausal oophorectomy was not associated with an increased risk of hip or vertebral fracture in this cohort. These results are in contrast to previous findings, suggesting that the relationship between postmenopausal oophorectomy and fractures is not fully elucidated and that incidental oophorectomy after menopause should still be considered carefully in each potential patient.

UNLABELLED In a population-based, cross-sectional study, we assessed age- and sex-specific changes in bone structure by QCT. Over life, the cross-sectional area of the vertebrae and proximal femur increased by approximately 15% in both sexes, whereas vBMD at these sites decreased by 39-55% and 34-46%, respectively, with greater decreases in women than in men. INTRODUCTION The changes in bone structure and density with aging that lead to fragility fractures are still unclear. MATERIALS AND METHODS In an age- and sex-stratified population sample of 373 women and 323 men (age, 20-97 years), we assessed bone geometry and volumetric BMD (vBMD) by QCT at the lumbar spine, femoral neck, distal radius, and distal tibia. RESULTS In young adulthood, men had 35-42% larger bone areas than women (p < 0.001), consistent with their larger body size. Bone area increased equally over life in both sexes by approximately 15% (p < 0.001) at central sites and by approximately 16% and slightly more in men at peripheral sites. Decreases in trabecular vBMD began before midlife and continued throughout life (p < 0.001), whereas cortical vBMD decreases began in midlife. Average decreases in trabecular vBMD were greater in women (-55%) than in men (-46%, p < 0.001) at central sites, but were similar (-24% and -26%, respectively) at peripheral sites. With aging, cortical area decreased slightly, and the cortex was displaced outwardly by periosteal and endocortical bone remodeling. Cortical vBMD decreased over life more in women ( approximately 25%) than in men (approximately 18%, p < 0.001), consistent with menopausal-induced increases in bone turnover and bone porosity. CONCLUSIONS Age-related changes in bone are complex. Some are beneficial to bone strength, such as periosteal apposition with outward cortical displacement. Others are deleterious, such as increased subendocortical resorption, increased cortical porosity, and, especially, large decreases in trabecular vBMD that may be the most important cause of increased skeletal fragility in the elderly. Our findings further suggest that the greater age-related decreases in trabecular and cortical vBMD and perhaps also their smaller bone size may explain, in large part, why fragility fractures are more common in elderly women than in elderly men.

Fracture risk among patients diagnosed with asthma in childhood is greater in males and oral corticosteroid users, but most fractures are of the appendicular skeleton and may relate to impaired skeletal development. Introduction: There are no population-based data on fracture outcomes among the growing number of patients with asthma diagnosed in childhood. Materials and Methods: We conducted a population-based retrospective (historical) cohort study among 279 Rochester, Minnesota, residents who were

To assess fractures in monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), the precursor of multiple myeloma, we followed 488 Olmsted County, MN, residents with MGUS in a retrospective cohort study. There was a 2.7-fold increase in the risk of axial fractures but no increase in limb fractures. The pathophysiologic basis for the increased axial fractures should be determined. Introduction: Multiple myeloma is often preceded by monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Fractures are common in myeloma as a result of lytic bone lesions, generalized bone loss, and elevated bone turnover from excessive cytokine production. Whether fractures are also increased in MGUS is unknown. Materials and Methods: In a population-based retrospective cohort study, 488 Olmsted County, MN, residents with MGUS first diagnosed in 1960–1994 (52% men; mean age, 71.4 ± 12.8 years) were followed for 3901 person-years; follow-up was censored at progression to myeloma. The relative risk of fractures was assessed by standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), and risk factors were evaluated in proportional hazards models. Results and Conclusions: Altogether, 200 patients experienced 385 fractures. Compared with expected rates in the community, statistically significant increases were seen for fractures at most axial sites, for example, vertebrae (SIR, 6.3; 95% CI, 5.2–7.5). There was a slight increase in hip (SIR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2–2.2) but not distal forearm fractures (SIR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.4–1.5). The relative risk (SIR) of any axial fracture was 2.7 (95% CI, 2.3–3.1) compared with only 1.1 (95% CI, 0.9–1.4) for all limb fractures combined. In a multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of any subsequent fracture were age (hazard ratio [HR] per 10-year increase, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2–1.6) and corticosteroid use (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2–2.6); greater weight at diagnosis (HR per 10 kg, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.8–0.9), and IgG monoclonal protein (HR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5–0.97) were protective. Baseline monoclonal protein level, a determinant of myeloma progression, did not predict fracture risk. Thus, the risk of axial, but not peripheral, fractures is increased among MGUS patients even before progression to myeloma. The pathophysiologic basis for this should be determined because elevated bone turnover, for example, might be treatable.

Osteoporotic fractures exact a terrible toll on the population with respect to morbidity and cost, and to a lesser extent mortality, which will increase dramatically with the growing elderly population. Attention has focused on the 12-20% excess deaths after hip fracture, but most are caused by underlying medical conditions unrelated to osteoporosis. More important is fracture-related morbidity. An estimated 10% of patients are disabled by hip fracture, and 19% require institutionalization, accounting for almost 140,000 nursing home admissions annually in this country. Distal forearm and vertebral fractures less commonly result in nursing home placement, but about 10% of postmenopausal women have vertebral deformities that cause chronic pain, and a substantial minority have poor function after forearm fracture. These fractures interfere greatly with the activities of daily living, and all of them can have a substantial negative impact on quality of life. Annual expenditures for osteoporotic fracture care in the United States (dollar 17.5 million in 2002 dollars) are dominated by hip fracture treatment, but vertebral fractures, distal forearm fractures, and importantly, the other fractures related to osteoporosis contribute one-third of the total. Although all fracture patients are at increased risk of future fractures, few of them are currently treated for osteoporosis, and only a subset (i.e., those with vertebral fractures) are considered candidates for many clinical trials. Eligibility criteria should be expanded and fracture end-points generalized to acknowledge the overall burden of osteoporotic fractures.

Elderly women with the lowest serum estrogen levels are at the greatest risk of bone loss and fractures, but it is controversial whether the ovaries contribute to estrogen production after menopause, and therefore, whether bilateral oophorectomy in postmenopausal women might have adverse skeletal effects. To address this potential problem, we estimated long-term fracture risk among 340 postmenopausal Olmsted County, MN, women who underwent bilateral oophorectomy for a benign ovarian condition in 1950-1987. In over 5632 person-years of follow-up (median, 16 years per subject), 194 women experienced 516 fractures (72% from moderate trauma). Compared with expected rates, there was a significant increase in the risk of any osteoporotic fracture (moderate trauma fractures of the hip, spine, or distal forearm; standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 1.54; 95% CI, 1.29-1.82) but almost as large an increase in fractures at other sites (SIR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.13-1.59). In multivariate analyses, the independent predictors of overall fracture risk were age, anticonvulsant or anticoagulant use foror = 6 months, and a history of alcoholism or prior osteoporotic fracture; obesity was protective. Estrogen replacement therapy was associated with a 10% reduction in overall fracture risk (hazard ratio [HR], 0.90; 95% CI, 0.64-1.28) and a 20% reduction in osteoporotic fractures (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.52-1.23), but neither was statistically significant. The increase in fracture risk among women who underwent bilateral oophorectomy after natural menopause is consistent with the hypothesis that androgens produced by the postmenopausal ovary are important for endogenous estrogen production that protects against fractures.

Long-term fracture prediction using bone mineral density remains controversial, as does the additional contribution from assessing bone turnover or clinical risk factors. We measured bone mineral density at various sites, along with biochemical markers of bone turnover, sex steroid levels, and over 100 clinical variables, at baseline on an age-stratified sample of 304 Rochester, MN women in 1980. The 225 postmenopausal women were subsequently followed for 3146 person-years (median, 16.2 years per subject), wherein they experienced 302 new fractures: 81% resulted from minimal or moderate trauma and 60% of these involved the proximal femur, thoracic or lumbar vertebrae, or distal forearm. Accounting for multiple fractures per subject, these osteoporotic fractures together were best predicted by baseline femoral neck bone mineral density (age-adjusted hazard ratio [HR] per SD decrease, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.10–1.70); 19 moderate trauma forearm fractures were best predicted by distal radius bone mineral content, whereas 28 hip fractures and 100 vertebral fractures were best predicted by femoral neck bone mineral density. Femoral neck bone mineral density performed comparably in predicting osteoporotic fracture risk within the first decade of follow-up (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.10–1.74) as well as more than 10 years after baseline (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.05–1.84). The older biochemical markers were not associated with fractures, but serum “free” estradiol index was independently predictive of short- and long-term fracture risk. Consistent clinical risk factors were not identified, but statistical power was limited. Identifying patients at increased long-term risk of fracture is challenging, but it is reassuring that femoral neck bone mineral density can predict osteoporotic fractures up to 20 years later.

To meet expectations for the participation of minority populations in research, we committed to enroll 140 minority subjects in addition to a random sample of Olmsted County, Minnesota residents (90% white) for a study of risk factors for age-related bone loss and fractures. We successfully enrolled 597 additional minority subjects but encountered specific problems with respect to identification of potential subjects, recruitment, obtaining informed consent, transportation to the study site, and collecting study data. These problems were resolved by observing the tenets of outreach to a diverse study population, namely (1) understand the target population; (2) establish explicit recruitment goals; (3) agree on research plans between study staff and minority communities; (4) continuously evaluate the recruitment process; and (5) maintain lines of communication. Success depended especially on the recruitment of cultural advisors from the different ethnic groups. These special efforts increased the recruitment cost substantially; the total expense of $122,000 for recruiting 550 Asian, Hispanic, and Somali subjects was almost 5-fold higher than the $26,000 required to recruit 699 mostly white study subjects from the population who were contacted by mail. Although it is not impossible to recruit minority subjects, investigators (and grant reviewers) should recognize that significant resources are required to gain access to ethnic communities for research. These results should contribute to more realistic budgets for recruiting minority subjects into clinical research studies.

The impact of primary hyperparathyroidism (HPT) on the population has not been well documented, particularly with respect to asymptomatic HPT. Only 83 deaths were attributed to hyperparathyroidism in the United States in 1999, for a reported death rate of just 0.3 per million per year. Many more patients are affected, of course, and the national hospitalization rate for HPT was 8.0 per 100,000 in 1999, counting 22,000 "all-listed" diagnoses, and 1.8 per 100,000 counting only the 5000 admissions where HPT was the first-listed discharge diagnosis. Surgery was performed on approximately 12,000 hospitalized patients in the United States in 1999, for a parathyroidectomy rate of about 4.4 per 100,000 per year. Overall, the annual incidence of HPT was 20.8 per 100,000 in Rochester, MN, during 1983-1992, although this represented a substantial decline from incidence rates reported a decade earlier. There are no estimates of HPT prevalence from this country, but the figure was 4.3 per 1000 in one Swedish survey. By any of these measures, HPT is more common in women than men and increases with aging in both sexes. Other risk factors are obscure. The cost of parathyroidectomies for HPT has been estimated at $282 million annually in the United States, but no reliable estimate of overall expenditures for HPT has been made, and no formal assessment of the cost-effectiveness of any treatment approach has been carried out. Better data on the disability and costs related to HPT and its treatment will be needed to devise the most efficient approaches to patient management.

Although median levels of bone turnover are increased in postmenopausal women, it is unclear whether the low circulating levels of endogenous estrogen exert a regulatory role on these levels. This issue was evaluated by assessing the effect of a blockade of estrogen synthesis on bone turnover markers in 42 normal women (mean age +/- SD, 69 +/- 5 years) randomly assigned to groups receiving the potent aromatase inhibitor letrozole or placebo for 6 months. Letrozole treatment reduced serum estrone (E1) and estradiol (E2) to near undetectable levels (p < 0.0001). This treatment did not affect bone formation markers but, as compared with the placebo group, increased bone resorption markers (urine 24-h pyridinoline [PYD] by 13.3% [p < 0.05] and 24-h urine deoxypyridinoline [DPD] by 14.2% [p < 0.05]) and decreased serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) by 22% (p = 0.002). These data indicate that in late postmenopausal women even the low serum estrogen levels present exert a restraining effect on bone turnover and support the concept that variations in these low levels may contribute to differences in their rate of bone loss.

While severe primary hyperparathyroidism (HPT) is clearly associated with osteitis fibrosa cystica, it remains uncertain whether mild, asymptomatic primary HPT adversely affects the skeleton. Thus, we assessed the incidence of age-related fractures in a large, population-based inception cohort of 407 cases of primary HPT (93 men and 314 women) recognized during the 28-year period, 1965-1992. Fracture risk was assessed by comparing new fractures at each site to the number expected from gender- and age-specific fracture incidence rates for the general population (standardized incidence ratios, SIRs). These community patients with primary HPT mostly had mild disease (mean +/- SD serum calcium, 10.9 +/- 0.6 mg/dl). Altogether, 471 fractures occurred during 5766 person-years of follow-up. Overall fracture risk was significantly increased in these patients (SIR 1.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-1.5). Primary HPT was associated with an increased risk of vertebral (SIR 3.2, 95% CI 2.5-4.0), distal forearm (SIR 2.2, 95% CI 1.6-2.9), rib (SIR 2.7, 95% CI 2.1-3.5), and pelvic fractures (SIR 2.1, 95% CI 1. 1-3.5). The risk of proximal femur fractures was only marginally increased (SIR 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-2.0). By univariate analysis, increasing age and female gender were significant predictors of fracture risk, although higher serum calcium levels were also associated with increased fracture risk, and parathyroid surgery may have had a protective effect. By multivariate analysis, however, only age (relative hazard [RH] per 10-year increase, 1.6, 95% CI 1. 4-1.9) and female gender (RH 2.3, 95% CI 1.2-4.1) remained significant independent predictors of fracture risk. Thus, primary HPT among unselected patients in the community is associated with a significant increase in the risk of vertebral, Colles', rib, and pelvic fractures. These data have important implications for the current trend to recommend nonsurgical management for patients with mild primary HPT.

Osteoporotic fractures are a significant public health problem, resulting in substantial morbidity and mortality. Previous estimates of the economic burden of osteoporosis, however, have not fully accounted for the costs associated with treatment of nonhip fractures, minority populations, or men. Accordingly, the 1995 total direct medical expenditures for the treatment of osteoporotic fractures were estimated for all persons aged 45 years or older in the United States by age group, sex, race, type of fracture, and site of service (inpatient hospital, nursing home, and outpatient). Osteoporosis attribution probabilities were used to estimate the proportion of health service utilization and expenditures for fractures that resulted from osteoporosis. Health care expenditures attributable to osteoporotic fractures in 1995 were estimated at $13.8 billion, of which $10.3 billion (75.1%) was for the treatment of white women, $2.5 billion (18.4%) for white men, $0.7 billion (5.3%) for nonwhite women, and $0.2 billion (1.3%) for nonwhite men. Although the majority of U.S. health care expenditures for the treatment of osteoporotic fractures were for white women, one-fourth of the total was borne by other population subgroups. By site-of-service, $8.6 billion (62.4%) was spent for inpatient care, $3.9 billion (28.2%) for nursing home care, and $1.3 billion (9.4%) for outpatient services. Importantly, fractures at skeletal sites other than the hip accounted for 36.9% of the total attributed health care expenditures nationally. The contribution of nonhip fractures to the substantial morbidity and expenditures associated with osteoporosis has been underestimated by previous researchers.

Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured at the lumbar spine and cervical and intertrochanteric regions of the proximal femur by dual-photon absorptiometry and bone mineral content was assessed at the distal and midradius by single-photon absorptiometry in an age-stratified random sample of 304 Rochester, Minnesota women aged 30-94 years. Over follow-up extending to 10 years (median 8.3 years), 93 women experienced 163 new fractures. After adjusting for age, these bone mineral measurements predicted the likelihood of any incident fracture due to moderate trauma, with relative hazards varying from 1.4 to 1.6 per SD decrease in baseline bone mineral. A 1 SD decrease in lumbar spine BMD increased the risk of a new vertebral fracture comparably to a 17 year increase in age; a 1 SD decrease in femoral BMD was comparable to a 13-14 year increase in age on the risk of a hip fracture. We conclude that bone mineral measurements made at a variety of skeletal sites can predict the occurrence for at least 8-10 years of moderate trauma fractures of the sort that might be related to osteoporosis.

In a series of postmenopausal women previously studied by our group, pernicious anemia was associated with reduced bone mineral density of the spine and with vertebral fractures. To determine whether osteoporotic fractures represent an important clinical problem for such patients, we conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of all Rochester, Minnesota residents newly diagnosed with pernicious anemia from 1950 through 1979. These 131 individuals were followed through the inpatient and outpatient records of all medical care providers in the community for 1550 person-years. In comparison with fracture rates from the general community, patients with pernicious anemia had a 1.9-fold increase in proximal femur fractures, a 1.8-fold increase in vertebral fractures, and a 2.9-fold increase in distal forearm fractures (all p less than 0.05). Increases in the risk of proximal humerus and pelvis fractures were not statistically significant. Clinicians should be aware that pernicious anemia is associated with an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures, but the mechanism is unknown.

High caffeine consumption has been proposed as a risk factor for osteoporotic fracture, but the evidence associating high caffeine intake with low bone density is inconsistent. We therefore examined the influence of caffeine consumption on bone mineral at six skeletal sites in an age-stratified random sample of white women residing in Rochester, Minnesota. After age adjustment, there was no association between overall caffeine consumption and bone mineral at five of the six sites. In the femoral shaft, however, there was a statistically significant interaction between age and caffeine consumption so that high caffeine intake was associated with slight reductions in bone mineral among elderly subjects but with modestly increased bone mineral at younger ages. When caffeine intake was categorized by source, no consistent influence of coffee, tea, or other caffeinated beverage consumption could be detected on bone mineral. Caffeine intake was, however, positively associated with cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption. After adjusting for age, caffeine consumption was not correlated with biochemical indices of bone turnover, circulating concentrations of estradiol and estrone, or other dietary and musculoskeletal variables. These data suggest that caffeine intake in the range consumed by a representative sample of white women is not an important risk factor for osteoporosis. Among elderly women, however, in whom calcium balance performance is impaired, high caffeine intake may predispose to cortical bone loss from the proximal femur.

Age-related fractures, especially hip fractures, produce sufficient morbidity and mortality to make osteoporosis a disease worth preventing, and accurate techniques exist to identify groups at high risk of fracture by virtue of low bone mass. While the need for prevention is evident, no specific program of fluoride use for this purpose has been devised, and epidemiologic data provide little support for the notion that exposure to fluoride reduces hip fracture incidence. At present, fluoride cannot be recommended as a prophylactic agent for the fractures that are the primary adverse health outcome of osteoporosis.