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While social determinants of health have been perennially linked to child survival in resource-limited countries, the precise and tested pathways to effect are not clearly understood. The objective of this study was therefore to identify the critical pathways as posited a priori in a model through which social factors (at maternal, household, and community levels) determine neonatal, infant, and under-five mortalities in Nigeria. Using a novel analytic approach (hierarchical path modelling for predicting accelerated failure time) to estimate (in)direct and total effects of social determinants of child survival, we analysed 30,960 live births (weighted data for representativeness), obtained from the 2016/2017 Nigeria Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey. There were three outcome variables: time until occurrence of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortalities. The independent variables were layered factors related to child, maternal, household and community. Geographical region, rurality of residence, infrastructural development, maternal education, contraceptive use, marital status, and maternal age at birth were found to operate more indirectly on neonatal, infant, and under-five survival. Child survival is due to direct effects of child's sex (female), gestational type (singleton), birth spacing (children whose mothers delivered at least two years apart), and maternal age at delivery (20–34 years). According to the path coefficients, the indirect effects of geographical regions are the most influential determinants of child survival, accounting for 30% (neonatal), 37.1% (infant) and 39.9% (under-five) of the total effects. This study offers comprehensive set of factors, and linked pathways, at the maternal, household, and community levels that are associated with child survival in Nigeria. To accelerate progress towards Sustainable Development Goal targets for child survival and reduce geographical inequities, stakeholders should implement more impactful policies that promote maternal education, contraceptive use and improve living conditions of women (especially in rural areas of northern Nigeria). Future research should focus on identifying the most effective interventions for addressing these social determinants of child survival in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to assess the changes in neonatal and infant mortality rates in Nigeria over the period 1990 to 2018 using Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) data, and assess their socio-demographic determinants using data from the most recent survey conducted in 2018. The infant mortality rate was 87 per 1000 live births in 1990, and this increased to 100 per 1000 live births in 2003 - an increase of around 15% over 13 years. Neonatal and infant mortality rates started to decline steadily thereafter and continued to do so until 2013. After 2013, neonatal morality rose slightly by the year 2018. Information for 27,465 infants under 1 year of age from the NDHS-2018 was analysed using bivariate and multivariate analysis and the Cox proportional hazard technique. In 2018, infant deaths decreased as wealth increased, and the incidence of infant deaths was greater among those of Islam religion than among those of other religions. A negative association was found between infant deaths and the size of a child at birth. Infant mortality was higher in rural than in urban areas, and was higher among male than female children. Both neonatal and infant death rates varied by region and were found to be highest in the North West region and lowest in the South region. An increasing trend was observed in neonatal mortality in the 5-year period from 2013 to 2018. Policy interventions should be focused on the poor classes, women with a birth interval of less than 2 years and those living in the North West region of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interval between successive pregnancies (birth interval) is one of the main indexes used to evaluate the health of a mother and her child. This study evaluated birth intervals in Iran using data from the Iranian Multiple Indicators Demographic and Health Survey (IrMIDHS) conducted in 2010-2011. A total of 20,093 married Iranian women aged 15-54 years from the whole country constituted the study sample. Based on the nature of sampling and the unobserved population heterogeneity for birth intervals in each city and province, a multilevel survival frailty model was applied. Data were analysed for women's first three birth intervals. The median first and second birth intervals were 30.3 and 39.7 months respectively. Higher education, Caesarean delivery, contraceptive use and exposure to public mass media were found to decrease the hazard rate ratio (HRR) of giving birth. Meanwhile, higher monthly income increased the hazard of giving birth. The results suggest that public mass media can play an effective role in encouraging women to have the recommended birth interval. Furthermore, increasing family income could encourage Iranian couples to decrease the time to their next birth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The positive effect of women's empowerment on the use of contraceptives is well established. However, the reverse effect, i.e. the potential effect of use of contraceptives on women's empowerment, is relatively unexplored. This study examined the direct impact of contraceptive use on women's empowerment in currently married women aged 15-49 years in India using data from the National Family Health Survey-4 conducted in 2015-16. A two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression model was used to account for the issue of endogeneity that appears in a general logit model. The use of contraceptives by the sample women was found to be associated with greater women's empowerment in terms of both their mobility and decision-making power. The pathways to greater women's empowerment are often presumed to be factors such as changing perception of their domestic role and sense of control over their own body. While these are integral, this paper highlights how the possible control over family size and birth interval through use of contraception may also be critical pathways to increasing women's empowerment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies have focused on the effect of short birth spacing on childhood mortality, yet very little attention has been paid to the possibility of an inverse relationship such that child mortality might also positively or negatively affect birth spacing. In Nigeria, where both fertility and child mortality are high, this inverse relationship is a possible reason for the country's high fertility. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of child death on time to birth of the next child. Data were drawn from the 2013 Nigerian Demographic Health Survey. The study sample comprised 188,986 live births born to women aged 15-49 years within the five years preceding the survey. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model was fitted to the data, and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals calculated. More than half of the mothers (68%) already had a next birth by 36 months after the death of the index child. Controlling for other covariates, the Cox regression model showed that the likelihood of next birth was higher when the index child had died compared with when the index child survived (HR: 2.21; CI: 2.03-2.41). Sub-group analysis by geo-political regions in Nigeria showed that in all regions there was a higher likelihood of having a next birth following the death of a preceding child. Death of the index child was found to be a major factor that shortens the length of birth intervals in Nigeria. It is therefore important that the Government of Nigeria intensifies efforts aimed at reducing infant mortality and encouraging adequate birth spacing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unwanted and mistimed pregnancies impose threats on the health and well-being of the mother and child and limit the acquisition of optimal sexual and reproductive health services, especially in resource-constrained settings like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This study aimed to determine the prevalence and correlates of mistimed and unwanted pregnancies among women in the DRC. Data were drawn from the 2013-14 DRC Demographic Health Survey (EDS-RDC II). Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify correlates of mistimed and unwanted pregnancies. Sequential logistic regression modelling including distal (place of residence), intermediate (socio-demographic and socioeconomic factors) and proximal (reproductive health and family planning) factors was performed using multivariate analysis. More than a quarter (28%) of pregnancies were reported as unintended (23% mistimed and 5% unwanted). Women who wanted no more children (aOR 1.21; CI: 1.01, 1.44) had less than 24 months of birth spacing (aOR 2.14; CI: 1.80, 2.54) and those who intended to use a family planning method (aOR 1.24; CI: 1.01, 1.52) reported more often that their last pregnancy was mistimed. Women with five or more children (aOR 2.13; CI: 1.30, 3.49), those wanting no more children (aOR 13.07; CI: 9.59, 17.81) and those with more than 48 months of birth spacing (aOR 2.31; CI: 1.26, 4.23) were more likely to report their last pregnancy as unwanted. The high rate of unintended pregnancies in the DRC shows the urgency to act on the fertility behaviour of women. The associated intermediate factors for mistimed and unwanted pregnancy indicate the need to accelerate family planning programmes, particularly for women of high parity and those who want no more children. Likewise, health promotion measures at the grassroots level to ensure women's empowerment and increase women's autonomy in health care are necessary to address the social factors associated with mistimed pregnancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Childbearing intentions among women in high-fertility contexts are usually classified into those wanting to have a baby, those wanting to 'space' a birth and those wanting to 'limit' their family size. However, evidence from Africa increasingly suggests that women's intentions are more complex than this classification suggests, and that there is fluidity in these intentions. This research explores women's accounts of their childbearing intentions and decisions in order to examine how this fluidity plays out in a low-fertility context in urban Africa. Six focus group discussions were conducted in April and May 2012 with women of reproductive age in Nairobi, Kenya. Participants were recruited using random and purposive sampling techniques. The focus group discussions had an average of seven participants each. Data were coded thematically and analysed using Nvivo software. The analysis explored the factors that women consider to be influential for childbearing and found that the health of the mother and child, costs of raising a child and relationships were commonly reported to be important. Evidence of intentions to space births and limit family size was found. However, the data also showed that there is fluidity in women's family planning intentions, driven by changes in relationships or household finances, which often result in a desire to avoid pregnancy in the present moment. The fluidity observed in women's childbearing intentions cannot be accounted for by the concepts of either 'spacing' or 'limitation' but is best explained by the concept of 'postponement'. The research reveals the need for family planning clinics to provide a full method mix, as well as high-quality counselling, to enable women to choose a method that best suits their needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short Birth Interval (SBI) is one of the main causes of adverse maternal and child health outcomes. A 33-month birth-to-birth interval between two successive live births should be followed to minimize the risk of adverse maternal and child health. This study aimed to examine the prevalence of SBI and the associated factors in rural India. Information on 98,522 rural mothers from the fourth round of National Family Health Survey data was analyzed. Bivariate statistics, logistic regression, Moran's I , and Cluster and Outlier Analysis have been used to assess the prevalence and spatial pattern of SBI in rural India. Results revealed that about half of the mothers in rural India had experienced SBI. Rural Indian mothers whose child was not alive (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.63-1.90), were not using any contraceptive methods (OR = 1.42, 95 % CI = 1.37-1.48) and not breastfeeding (OR = 2.73, 95% CI = 2.50-2.97) were more likely to experience SBI. On the other hand, rural mothers from the middle, richer and richest wealth quintiles (OR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.86-0.97; OR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.80-0.92; OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.55-0.66) and of age over 30 years (OR = 0.38., 95% CI = 0.36-0.39) were less likely to experience SBI. Analysis of spatial patterns revealed clear east-west differences in the prevalence of SBI. There was strong clustering of high values of SBI in most districts across the central, northern, western, and southern regions. The study suggests the need to introduce appropriate interventions and programs focused on reducing the prevalence of SBI in rural India.

The enduring sub-replacement level of fertility in Iran is the result of changing timing of births. Using data from the 2015 Hamedan Survey of Fertility, conducted in a representative sample of 3000 married women aged 15-49, this study examined variations in median lengths of birth intervals employing cumulative survival functions, and investigated the determinants of birth interval lengths using regression hazard models. The results showed that the median first, second and third birth intervals, estimated at 28, 74 and 136 months respectively, doubled between 1995 and 2015. The multivariate analysis results indicated the strong impact of contraceptive use and higher education on lengthening birth intervals, with greater effects on the timing of second and third births. The relative risks of second and third births were higher among rural migrants, unemployed women and those with shorter periods of breast-feeding and the death of a preceding birth. Only timing of the third birth was influenced by son preference. The implications of the results for low fertility and maternal and child health in Iran are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Child undernutrition remains a major child health and developmental issue in low- and middle-income countries. The concentration (clustering) of underweight children among siblings at the family level is known to exist in India. This study examined the extent and covariates of clustering of underweight children at the sibling and family level in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state of northern India. Clustering of underweight (low weight-for-age) children was assessed using data on 7533 under-five children from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted in 2005–06, analysed using binary logistic and binomial regression models. Related bio-demographic, socioeconomic and health care variables were used as covariates in the models. The odds of being underweight for the index child were about two times higher (OR=2.34, p<0.001) if any of the siblings within the household was malnourished or underweight. A longer birth interval increased the odds of a child being underweight. The odds of underweight were significantly lower (OR=0.69, p<0.001) for children born to normal-weight mothers compared with those born to underweight mothers. Similarly, the odds of underweight were significantly lower (OR=0.49, p=0.01) for children born to educated mothers (high school and above) compared with those born to illiterate mothers. The results of the binomial regression model suggested that the deviations between observed and expected number of children were positive (3.09, 3.78 and 2.71) for 1, 2 and 2+ underweight children within the households of underweight women, indicating the concentration of underweight children among underweight/malnourished mothers. Underweight children were found to be clustered among underweight mothers with multiple underweight siblings. The findings suggest that policy interventions need to focus on underweight mothers with multiple underweight children. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Over 2 million abortions occur annually in Pakistan, mostly in a clandestine and unsafe environment. This is an area of grave concern for the reproductive health of women. A dearth of credible data and incomplete information make the problem more difficult to address. This qualitative study was conducted in semi-urban settings in Pakistan to record perceptions and practices concerning care seeking, experiences and outcomes regarding induced abortions and post-abortion care services. Women who had had induced abortions and abortion service providers were interviewed. Unwanted pregnancies and poverty were found to be the main reasons for seeking an abortion. Moreover, the unwanted pregnancies occurred due to low use of contraceptives, mainly due to a fear or past experience of their side-effects, unfamiliarity with correct usage and perceived inefficacy of the methods, especially condoms. There is an obvious need for practical and innovative interventions to address unmet need for birth spacing through improved access to contraceptives. Contraceptive providers should be provided with up-to-date and detailed training in family planning counselling, and perhaps allowed unrestricted provision of contraceptives. As a long-term measure, improvement in access to education and formal schooling could increase young girls' and women's knowledge of the benefits of family planning and the risks of unsafe abortion practices. Males must be involved in all the initiatives so that both partners are in agreement on correct and consistent contraceptive use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most studies on birth intervals and infant mortality ignore pregnancies that do not result in live births. Yet, fetal deaths are important in infant mortality analyses for three reasons: ignoring fetal deaths between two live births lengthens the measured interval between births, implying that short intervals are underestimated; the recommended inter-pregnancy interval (IPI) after a fetal loss is shorter (6 months) than after a live birth (24 months), as the effect of IPI on outcomes might differ according to the previous type of pregnancy outcome; fetal death will selectively reduce the population at risk of neonatal mortality, leading to biased results. This study uses the Heckman selection model to simultaneously estimate the combined effect of IPI duration and the type of pregnancy outcome at the start of the interval on pregnancy survival and neonatal mortality. The analysis is based on retrospective data from the Rwanda Demographic Health Surveys of 2000, 2005 and 2010. The results show a significant selection effect. After controlling for the selection bias, short (<6 months) and long (>60 months) intervals after a fetal death reduce the chances of pregnancy survival, but no longer have an effect on neonatal mortality. For intervals starting with a live birth, the reverse is true. Short intervals (<24 months) do not affect pregnancy survival but increase the odds of neonatal mortality. If the previous child died in infancy, the highest odds are found for neonatal death regardless of the IPI duration. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In life history theory, early life adversity is associated with an accelerated reproductive tempo. In harsh and unpredictable conditions in developing societies fertility is generally higher and the reproductive tempo faster than in more secure environments. This paper examines whether differences in female anthropometry, particularly adult height, are associated with fertility intentions of women in urban environments in India. The study population consists of women aged 15-29 (N=4485) in slums and non-slums of eight Indian cities in the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) of 2005-2006. Adult height is taken as a proxy for early childhood health and nutritional condition. Fertility intentions are examined by using two variables: the desire to have a child or another child, and to have it relatively soon, as indicative of accelerated reproductive scheduling. Evidence supporting the acceleration hypothesis is found in two urban frames out of 26 examined in a two-staged multinomial logistic model. In three cases, the relationship between fertility intentions and height is the opposite than expected by the acceleration hypothesis: taller women have a higher predictive probability of desiring a(nother) child and/or narrower birth spacing. Potential explanations for the partly contradictory relationship between the childhood health indicator and fertility intentions are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Guatemala, especially in rural areas, gender norms contribute to high fertility and closely spaced births by discouraging contraceptive use and constraining women from making decisions regarding the timing of their pregnancies and the size of their families. Community workshops for men, women and couples were conducted in 30 rural communities in Guatemala to test the hypothesis that the promotion of gender equity in the context of reproductive health will contribute to gender-equitable attitudes and strengthen the practice of family planning. Communities were randomly assigned to intervention and control groups. Pre/post surveys were conducted. Odds ratios estimated with mixed effect models to account for community-level randomization and repeated measures per participant were compared. The analyses showed statistically significant effects of the intervention on two of the three outcomes examined: gender attitudes and contraceptive knowledge. Findings regarding contraceptive use were suggestive but not significant. The results suggest that it is possible to influence both inequitable gender norms and reproductive health knowledge and, potentially, behaviours in a short span of time using appropriately designed communications interventions that engage communities in re-thinking the inequitable gender norms that act as barriers to health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates inequalities at the province level of the use of modern contraception and the proportion of short birth intervals among women in the DRC using data from the 2007 Demographic and Health Survey. Logistic regression and Bayesian geo-additive models were used. The posterior odds ratio and the associated 95% credible interval (95% CI) were estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Posterior spatial effects were mapped at the province level with the associated posterior probability maps showing statistical significance at 5%. The overall rates of modern contraception use among the entire sample of women (15–49 years old; N=7172) and youth (15–24 years old; N=1389) were 5.7% and 6.0% respectively. However, there was striking variation in contraceptive use between the two groups across provinces with a clear east-to-west gradient. The highest use in the total sample was in Nord-Kivu (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.12, 1.55) and Bas Congo provinces (1.47; 1.22, 1.78). For the youth, the highest use was observed in Nord-Kivu (1.19; 0.92, 1.65). In multivariate Bayesian geo-additive regression analyses among the entire sample of women, factors consistently associated with lower use of modern contraception were living in rural areas (0.71; 0.62, 0.82), living in low-income households (0.67; 0.54, 0.80) and having no education (0.83; 0.67, 0.97). For the youth sample, living in low-income households (0.57; 0.41, 0.84) and no breast-feeding (0.64; 0.47, 0.86) were consistently associated with a lower use of modern contraception. The study shows a distinct geographic pattern in the use of modern contraception in youth and the entire sample of women in the DRC, suggesting a potential role for socioeconomic factors, such as accessibility, affordability and availability, as well as environmental factors at the province level beyond individual-level risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The analysis of fertility in colonizing populations is of great interest, since its individuals experience a major environmental change, and fertility rates can reflect the level of adaptation of the population to its new conditions. Using Northrop's genealogical compilations, this paper examines the fertility pattern of California's early Spanish-Mexican colonists between 1742 and 1876, their fitness levels and their trend across time throughout the colonizing period. A total of 197 women from 599 compiled families who had completed their reproductive period and had at least one child were analysed. The correlations among variables were also analysed in order to infer the relationship between longevity and fertility, and the influence of fertility determinants. The results show a natural fertility pattern, with a very young age at marriage and birth of first child (17.2 and 19.1 years respectively), and also a young age at last childbirth (38.8 years). The population's fitness showed greater values than for contemporary European populations, with 8 of 9.2 children surviving to adulthood, in comparison with 55% of newborns in Finland for the same period, suggesting a good adaptation of the population to their new environmental conditions. No relationship between fertility and lifespan was observed, as has been reported by other authors and in opposition to classical theories. A temporal trend in the number of children, consisting of three different phases, was observed, in accordance with the stability of living conditions in the region.

There are substantial regional disparities in under-five mortality in Nigeria, and evidence suggests that both individual- and community-level characteristics have an influence on health outcomes. Using 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data, this study (1) examines the effects of individual- and community-level characteristics on infant/child mortality in Nigeria and (2) determines the extent to which characteristics at these levels influence regional variations in infant/child mortality in the country. Multilevel Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed on a nationally representative sample of 28,647 children nested within 18,028 mothers of reproductive age, who were also nested within 886 communities. The results indicate that community-level variables (such as region, place of residence, community infrastructure, community hospital delivery and community poverty level) and individual-level factors (including child's sex, birth order, birth interval, maternal education, maternal age and wealth index) are important determinants of infant/child mortality in Nigeria. For instance, the results show a lower risk of death in infancy for children of mothers residing in communities with a high proportion of hospital delivery (HR: 0.70, p < 0.05) and for children whose mothers had secondary or higher education (HR: 0.84, p < 0.05). Although community factors appear to influence the association between individual-level factors and death during infancy and childhood, the findings consistently indicate that community-level characteristics are more important in explaining regional variations in child mortality, while individual-level factors are more important for regional variations in infant mortality. The results of this study underscore the need to look beyond the influence of individual-level factors in addressing regional variations in infant and child mortality in Nigeria.