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Aim: The Expansion‐Contraction model has been used to explain the responses of species to climatic changes. During periods of unfavourable climatic conditions, species retreat to refugia from where they may later expand. This paper focuses on the palaeoecology of red deer over the past 54 ka across Europe and the Urals, to reveal patterns of change in their range and explore the role of environmental conditions in determining their distribution. Location: Europe and western Asia to 63°E. Taxon: Red deer (Cervus elaphus). Methods: We collected 984 records of radiocarbon‐dated red deer subfossils from the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, including 93 original dates. For each deer sample we compiled climatic and biome type data for the corresponding time intervals. Results: During the last 54 ka changes in red deer range in Europe and the Urals were asynchronous and differed between western and eastern Europe and western Asia due to different environmental conditions in those regions. The range of suitable areas for deer during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was larger than previously thought and covered vast regions not only in southern but also in western and eastern Europe. Throughout the period investigated the majority of specimens inhabited forests in the temperate climatic zone. The contribution of forests in deer localities significantly decreased during the last 4 ka, due to deforestation of Europe caused by humans. Mean January temperature was the main limiting factor for species distribution. Over 90% of the samples were found in areas where mean January temperature was above −10°C. Main conclusions: Red deer response to climatic oscillations are in agreement with the Expansion‐Contraction model but in contradiction to the statement of only the southernmost LGM refugia of the species. During the last 54 ka red deer occurred mostly in forests of the temperate climatic zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populations whose dynamics are driven by correlated environmental stochasticity face increased risk of extinction. Forests in particular are being pushed to their physiological limits under global change; hence, the analysis of common patterns of tree performance across scales becomes crucial to discern early warning signals and tipping points. Here, we critically evaluate customary and recent approaches for the analysis of time series of radial growth based on simple correlations as measure of direction and signal strength shared by spatially segregated forests (synchrony). By accounting for changes in spatial distribution of populations and temporal coverage of tree‐ring records, we show that growth synchrony has not substantially augmented for the past 150 years across Europe, a continent with high availability of tree‐ring series. We guard against the use of absolute correlations as a metric of synchrony and stress that robust analytical methods should be applied to evaluate synchrony trends when using biased spatiotemporal databases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: When modelling future or past geographic distributions of a species, attention should be paid to the possible differentiated responses to climate changes between lineages. Dispersal also plays an important role in the capacity of species to track suitable climate, which is particularly relevant for amphibians with limited dispersal ability. In this study, we included different lineages and dispersal distances into species distribution models to make them more biologically relevant in face of climate change scenarios. Location: Europe. Taxa: Bombina variegata and its lineages. Methods: Using MaxEnt, we fitted correlative niche models for B. variegata lineages and also for the species level (B. variegata sensu lato) that we projected under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5). A comparison of projections was conducted considering both unlimited and limited dispersal abilities. Results: We found that the B. variegata lineages differed in their bioclimatic niches. In general, models run without discriminating the lineages showed reduced suitable areas compared to models run at each lineage, especially those for B. variegata pachypus and B. variegata scabra (southern lineages). Suitable areas identified for the LGM match with the climatic refugia identified in phylogeographic studies. Projections for the mid‐Holocene showed the increase of suitable areas for the lineages B. variegata variegata "Carpathians" and "Western" while they decreased for the southern lineages. In the future (2040–2080), only models under limited dispersal predict the extinction of the Carpathian lineage and a reduction in suitable areas for the other lineages, regardless of periods and scenarios. Main conclusions: We demonstrated important shifts in habitat suitability in Europe suggesting range‐shifts about hundreds of kilometres in response to past climate changes. However, rapid and unprecedented changes in suitability are expected in the future due to the accelerated climate warming during the 21st. According to their limited dispersal abilities, the persistence of all B. variegata lineages over time appears uncertain. We further recommend to integrate the intraspecific levels, when available, in modelling process to catch local variations and obtain more accurate results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Many rare species are dispersal‐limited; their colonization capacity can be impacted by land use and climate changes. Most ecological niche models predict the distribution of species under future climate and land use change scenarios without incorporating species‐specific dispersal abilities. Here we investigate the effect of climate and land use change on low vagile species accounting for their dispersal capacity and define accessible areas in the future. Location: Europe. Taxon: Saproxylic beetles. Methods: We used the current (2007–2012) occurrences of six endangered saproxylics to develop ecological niche models using current climate and land use conditions. We projected species distributions under four future climate and land use change scenarios to estimate their potential occurrences. Finally, accounting for species‐specific dispersal, we limited their distributions to accessible areas in 2040–2050. Results: Without accounting for dispersal abilities we found a strong and positive impact of climate change on the distribution of Cerambix cerdo, Cucujus cinnaberinus, Morimus funereus and Rosalia alpina and a positive effect of land use change on the distribution of Lucanus cervus and Osmoderma eremita. When species‐specific dispersal was included, we found a strong and positive impact of land use change on the distribution of all the species. In this case climate change had a lower but positive effect on the distribution of C. cerdo, C. cinnaberinus, L. cervus and R. alpina, and a negative effect on the distribution of O. eremita. Main conclusion: We found that climate change would promote the expansion of saproxylic beetles only in the unrealistic case of unlimited dispersal. Accounting for dispersal abilities, the expansion of our species would be mainly conditioned by the effect of land use change. Thus, we encourage researchers to combine climate and land use change with dispersal when projecting species distribution under future scenarios to accurately identify areas with fundamental species‐specific resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are the most common tool to predict the impact of climate change on biodiversity. They can be tuned to fit relationships at various levels of complexity (defined here as parameterization complexity, number of predictors, and multicollinearity) that may co‐determine whether projections to novel climatic conditions are useful or misleading. Here, we assessed how model complexity affects the performance of model extrapolations and influences projections of species ranges under future climate change. Location: Europe. Taxon: 34 European tree species. Methods: We sampled three replicates of predictor sets for all combinations of 10 levels (n = 3–12) of environmental variables (climate, terrain, soil) and 10 levels of multicollinearity. We used these sets for each species to fit four SDM algorithms at three levels of parameterization complexity. The >100,000 resulting SDM fits were then evaluated under environmental block cross‐validation and projected to environmental conditions for 2061–2080 considering four climate models and two emission scenarios. Finally, we investigated the relationships of model design with model performance and projected distributional changes. Results: Model complexity affected both model performance and projections of species distributional change. Fits of intermediate parameterization complexity performed best, and more complex parameterizations were associated with higher projected loss of current ranges. Model performance peaked at 10–11 variables but increasing number of variables had no consistent effect on distributional change projections. Multicollinearity had a low impact on model performance but distinctly increased projected loss of current ranges. Main conclusions: SDM‐based climate change impact assessments should be based on ensembles of projections, varying SDM algorithms as well as parameterization complexity, besides emission scenarios and climate models. The number of predictor variables should be kept reasonably small and the classical threshold of maximum absolute Pearson correlation of 0.7 restricts collinearity‐driven effects in projections of species ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: We use cluster analysis to delimit climatically and functionally distinct mammalian faunal clusters. These entities form regional species pools and are relevant to community assembly processes. Similar clusters can be differentiated in the fossil record, offering the potential for use as palaeoenvironmental proxies. Location: North America within W178°, W14°, N83°, N7° and Europe within W32°, E35°, N80°, N35°. Major taxa studied: 575 and 124 land mammal species from North America and Europe. Methods: K‐means clustering was used to subdivide North America and Europe into distinct faunas ranging in number from 3 (largest scale) to 21 (smallest scale). Each set of faunas was tested for significant differences in climate (mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature) and functional traits (body mass, locomotion and diet). Results: In North America, climatic differentiation exists at the scale where mammals are divided into 11 or fewer distinct faunas and, in Europe, at the scale where there are five or fewer faunas. Functional trait differentiation in body mass occurs at a larger spatial scale in North America (8 distinct faunas), but locomotor differentiation is present at all spatial scales, and dietary differentiation is not present at any scale. No significant differentiation in any functional trait at any scale was found in Europe. Main conclusions: Faunal clusters can be constructed at any spatial scale, but clusters are climatically and functionally meaningful only at larger scales. Climatic (and environmental) differences and their associated functional trait specialisations are likely to be barriers to large‐scale mixing. We argue, therefore, that functionally and climatically distinct faunal clusters are the entities that form regional species pools for community assembly processes. In North America, there are eight such mammal pools, but only one in Europe. Since the functional traits in our study are observable in the fossil record, functional trait analysis can potentially be used to diagnose climatically distinct regions in the past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim In the alpine life zone, plant diversity is strongly determined by local topography and microclimate. We assessed the extent to which aspect and its relatedness to temperature affect plant species diversity, and the colonization and disappearance of species on alpine summits on a pan-European scale. Location Mountain summits in Europe's alpine life zone. Methods Vascular plant species and their percentage cover were recorded in permanent plots in each cardinal direction on 123 summits in 32 regions across Europe. For a subset from 17 regions, resurvey data and 6-year soil temperature series were available. Differences in temperature sum and Shannon index as well as species richness, colonization and disappearance of species among cardinal directions were analysed using linear mixed-effects and generalised mixed-effects models, respectively. Results Temperature sums were higher in east- and south-facing aspects than in the north-facing ones, while the west-facing ones were intermediate; differences were smallest in northern Europe. The patterns of temperature sums among aspects were consistent among years. In temperate regions, thermal differences were reflected by plant diversity, whereas this relationship was weaker or absent on Mediterranean and boreal mountains. Colonization of species was positively related to temperature on Mediterranean and temperate mountains, whereas disappearance of species was not related to temperature. Main conclusions Thermal differences caused by solar radiation determine plant species diversity on temperate mountains. Advantages for plants on eastern slopes may result from the combined effects of a longer diurnal period of radiation due to convection cloud effects in the afternoon and the sheltered position against the prevailing westerly winds. In northern Europe, long summer days and low sun angles can even out differences among aspects. On Mediterranean summits, summer drought may limit species numbers on the warmer slopes. Warmer aspects support a higher number of colonization events. Hence, aspect can be a principal determinant of the pace of climate-induced migration processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Climate changes in the past had a deep impact on the evolutionary history of many species and left genetic signatures that are often still detectable today. We investigated the geographical pattern of mitochondrial DNA diversity in the European wild boar ( Sus scrofa). Our final aims were to clarify the influence of present and past climatic conditions, infer the geographical position of glacial refugia, and suggest post-glacial spatial dynamics. Location Europe. Methods D-loop sequences were obtained for 763 individuals from Portugal to western Russia. Phylogenetic, multivariate and interpolation methods were used to describe the genetic and geographical patterns. Climatic suitability during the Last Glacial Maximum ( LGM) was predicted using MaxEnt. The effect of present and past suitability on the observed patterns of diversity was evaluated by multiple linear regression. Results We confirmed the existence of a ubiquitous mitochondrial clade in Europe (E1), an endemic clade in Italy (E2) and a few East Asian haplotypes (A), presumably introgressed from domestic pigs. No Near Eastern haplotypes were detected. Genetic divergence was not simply related to geographical distance. A clear south-north decreasing gradient of diversity was observed, with maximum levels in putative glacial refugia. Latitudinal variation in climatic conditions during the LGM was shown to be a good predictor of current genetic diversity. Moreover, an unexpected similarity between Iberia and eastern Europe was observed, while central European populations showed a higher affinity to the Italian gene pool. Main conclusions The current distribution of mitochondrial genetic diversity was highly influenced by past climatic events, especially those related to the LGM, and is consistent with a major contribution of the Italian peninsula and the Balkans to the post-glacial recolonization of northern areas. More recent processes, such as restocking and extensive hunting, probably acted at rather local scales, without great impact on the global pattern of mitochondrial diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During recent and future climate change, shifts in large-scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress-gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad-scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co-occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates. Europe. We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech ( Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species ( Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co-occurrence patterns. Correlation analyses supported the stress-gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co-occurrence patterns may play a major role. Our results demonstrate the importance of species co-occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate-induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a short synthesis of the Pleistocene distribution dynamics and phylogeographic recolonization hypotheses for two temperate European mammal species, the red deer ( Cervus elaphus) and the roe deer ( Capreolus capreolus), for which high-resolution patterns of fossil evidence and genetic data sets are available. Such data are critical to an understanding of the role of hypothesized glacial refugia. Both species show a similar pattern: a relatively wide distribution in the southern part of Central Europe 60,000–25,000 years ago, and a strong restriction to areas in southern Europe for nearly 10,000 years during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the early Late Glacial (25,000–14,700 years ago). With the beginning of Greenland Interstadial 1 (Bølling/Allerød warming, c. 14,700–11,600 years ago) a sudden range expansion into Central Europe is visible, but the colonization of most of Central Europe, including the northern European Lowlands, only began in the early Holocene. In a European context, regions where the species were distributed during the LGM and early Late Glacial are most relevant as potential origins of recolonization processes, because during these c. 10,000 years distribution ranges were smaller than at any other time in the Late Quaternary. As far as the present distribution of temperate species and their genetic lineages is concerned, so-called ‘cryptic refugia’ are important only if the species are actually confirmed there during the LGM, as otherwise they could not possibly have contributed to the recolonization that eventually resulted in the present distribution ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim  To explore the potential impacts of climatic change on species with different migratory strategies using Sylvia warblers breeding in Europe as a ‘model’ species group. Location  Europe and Africa. Methods  Climate response surfaces and generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to model relationships between species recorded breeding and non-breeding ranges and recent climate. Species potential future breeding and non-breeding ranges were simulated for three scenarios of late 21st-century climate. The simulated potential future and present ranges were compared in terms of their relative extent and overlap, as well as their location. The impact of any shifts in potential range location on migration distance were quantified. Results  Potential breeding ranges consistently showed a shift northwards, whereas potential non-breeding ranges showed no consistent directional shift, even when trans-Saharan migrants were considered separately from resident/short-distance or partial migrants. Future potential range extent relative to simulated recent range extent varied considerably among species, although on average range extent increased. Overlap between future and recent simulated range was generally low, averaging < 36% for both breeding and non-breeding ranges. Overlap was consistently less for range-restricted than for widespread species. Migration distance increased generally, by about twice as much in the case of trans-Saharan migrant species than for short-distance migrants. In many cases potential future non-breeding areas were simulated in regions far from the species present non-breeding area, suggesting that new migration strategies and routes may need to be developed in response to climatic change. Main conclusions  Migratory species can be expected to suffer greater negative impacts from climatic change than species that are resident or undertake only short-distance or partial migrations. Trans-Saharan migrants face the greatest potential increases in migration distances, whereas range-restricted species are expected to experience major population reductions because of the limited, or in some cases lack of, overlap between their present and potential future ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Climatic changes and fluctuations in the past have strongly influenced the distribution of animal and plant species. Such fluctuations are also reflected in the patterns of genetic diversity on both local and global scales. The genetic pattern of the pearly heath butterfly, Coenonympha arcania, was used to evaluate the genetic differentiation of isolated (in north-western Europe), peripheral (in north-eastern Europe) and central (in southern Europe) populations in the context of post-glacial distributional changes of the species. Location Europe (Sweden, Germany, the Baltic states, Italy, Slovenia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria). Thus, samples were collected from large parts of the species’ distribution representing the three categories mentioned above. Methods We analysed 18 loci of 569 individuals from 28 populations by allozyme electrophoresis. We used both individual-based and population-based analyses, including F-statistics, various clustering methods and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. Results All loci, except Fum, were polymorphic. The mean FST for all samples was 0.18. The mean genetic distance among populations was 0.046. Two major genetic lineages were distinguished. Populations from the centre of the distributional range in southern Europe and the northern periphery of the distributional range differed significantly in their level of genetic variability. The central populations of south-eastern Europe showed high levels of genetic diversity and no differentiation among populations. Main conclusions Most probably the two major genetic lineages evolved during glacial isolation in two disjunct Mediterranean refugia. The lack of genetic differentiation across south-eastern Europe implies a continuous Würm ice age distribution in this area, thus supporting the functional existence of steppe forests throughout this region. The peripheral-isolated populations in Sweden seem to have suffered from one or more severe bottlenecks, resulting in substantial genetic impoverishment. The peripheral-connected eastern Baltic populations, on the other hand, are affected by post-glacial and possibly recurrent gene flow from more central parts of the distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The southern European peninsulas (Iberian, Italian and Balkan) are considered to have been refugia for many European species of plants and animals during the climatic extremes of the Pleistocene ice ages. A number of recent studies (fossil and genetic), however, have provided evidence for full-glacial survival of some species beyond these peninsulas. Here we explore the biogeographical traits of these species, and ask whether they possessed certain characteristics that enabled them to persist in more northerly refugia. Location Europe. Methods Fossil and genetic evidence for refugial localities of species that survived in Europe during the last full-glacial was obtained from the literature (totalling 90 species: 34 woody plants and 56 vertebrates). Forty-seven of these species (23 woody plants and 24 vertebrates) had fossil evidence, whereas the remaining 43 species (11 woody plants and 32 vertebrates) had only genetic evidence. All species were scored according to their present geographical distribution, habitat preference and life-history traits. The species were classified on the basis of these traits using hierarchical cluster analysis. Analysis of similarities was used to examine differences in vertebrate and woody plant species groups that survived only in southerly refugia and those that also persisted in more northerly locations. Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling was used to examine patterns observed between and within groups. Results Results from our analysis of species with fossil and genetic evidence for survival in refugia reveal that species that survived only in southerly refugia were large-seeded trees or thermophilous vertebrates. In contrast, species that had a full-glacial distribution, including more northerly locations, were wind-dispersed, habitat-generalist trees with the ability to reproduce vegetatively, and habitat-generalist mammals with present-day northerly distributions. Main conclusions Analysis of the geographical distribution, habitat preference and life-history traits of the species studied suggests that underlying biogeographical traits may have determined their response to Pleistocene glaciation. The traits most commonly found in present populations with a northerly distribution in Europe enabled the same species to exist much farther north than the southern European peninsulas during the full-glacial. It is possible that many of these species are now in restricted populations, within the ‘warm-stage’ refugia of the current interglacial. The northerly full-glacial survival of a number of woody plants and vertebrate species has significant implications for understanding migration rates of these species in response to climate change. It also has important implications for understanding current patterns of genetic diversity of European species. We suggest that both fossil and genetic evidence should be used to identify and prioritize for conservation of refugial localities in southern and northern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We explore the relationship between current European distributions of amphibian and reptile species and observed climate, and project species potential distributions into the future. Potential impacts of climate warming are assessed by quantifying the magnitude and direction of modelled distributional shifts for every species. In particular we ask, first, what proportion of amphibian and reptile species are projected to lose and gain suitable climate space in the future? Secondly, do species projections vary according to taxonomic, spatial or environmental properties? And thirdly, what climate factors might be driving projections of loss or gain in suitable environments for species? Location Europe. Methods Distributions of species are modelled with four species—climate envelope techniques (artificial neural networks, generalized linear models, generalized additive models, and classification tree analyses) and distributions are projected into the future using five climate-change scenarios for 2050. Future projections are made considering two extreme assumptions: species have unlimited dispersal ability and species have no dispersal ability. A novel hybrid approach for combining ensembles of forecasts is then used to group linearly covarying projections into clusters with reduced inter-model variability. Results We show that a great proportion of amphibian and reptile species are projected to expand distributions if dispersal is unlimited. This is because warming in the cooler northern ranges of species creates new opportunities for colonization. If species are unable to disperse, then most species are projected to lose range. Loss of suitable climate space for species is projected to occur mainly in the south-west of Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, whilst species in the south-east are projected to gain suitable climate. This is because dry conditions in the south-west are projected to increase, approaching the levels found in North Africa, where few amphibian species are able to persist. Main conclusions The impact of increasing temperatures on amphibian and reptile species may be less deleterious than previously postulated; indeed, climate cooling would be more deleterious for the persistence of amphibian and reptile species than warming. The ability of species to cope with climate warming may, however, be offset by projected decreases in the availability of water. This should be particularly true for amphibians. Limited dispersal ability may further increase the vulnerability of amphibians and reptiles to changes in climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We explored the relative contributions of climatic and land-cover factors in explaining the distribution patterns of butterflies in a boreal region. Location Finland, northern Europe. Methods Data from a national butterfly atlas survey carried out during 1991-2003, with a 10-km grain grid system, were used in these analyses. We used generalized additive models (GAM) and hierarchical partitioning (HP) to explore the main environmental correlates (climate and land-cover) of the realized niches of 98 butterfly species. The accuracy of the distribution models (GAMs) was validated by resubstitution and cross-validation approaches, using the area under the curve (AUC) derived from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots. Results Predictive accuracies of the 98 individual environment—butterfly models varied from low to very high (cross-validated AUC values 0.48-0.99), with a mean of 0.79. The results of both the GAM and HP analyses were broadly concordant. Most of the variation in butterfly distributions is associated with growing degree-days, mean temperature of the coldest month and cover of built-up area in all six phylogenetic groups (butterfly families). There were no statistically significant differences in predictive accuracy among the different butterfly families. Main conclusions About three-quarters of the distributions of butterfly species in Finland appear to be governed principally by climatic, predominantly temperature-related, factors. This indicates that many butterfly species may respond rapidly to the projected climate change in boreal regions. By determining the ecological niches of multiple species, we can project their range shifts in response to changes in climate and land-cover, and identify species that are particularly sensitive to forecasted global changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Aim This study aims to assess the sensitivity of calcareous grassland vegetation to climate change and to indicate the most probable direction of change. Location The study area was a region of Britain, Ireland, France and Spain, centred on the Bay of Biscay, which was defined using a land classification based on climatic criteria. Methods Vegetation was sampled in the field, with additional data collected on soils, climate, management and land cover. The vegetation samples were ordinated by detrended correspondence analysis in order to explore the main gradients present and as a basis for modelling changes. Environmental data were summarized by ordination techniques, with the scores generated used to predict the current vegetation score on the first two ordination axes by multiple regression. The model was then manipulated to represent a 2 °C increase in temperature and resulting shifts in the vegetation samples in terms of their species composition assessed. Results There was a good general agreement between the original vegetation ordination axis scores and those predicted by the model, the latter of which were based on environmental data alone. Following a 2 °C increase in temperature, the predicted changes in the ordination space were demonstrated to be subtle, consisting of small shifts towards vegetation associated with warmer conditions, representing distances 100 km or less on the ground. Main conclusions The models are simple but nevertheless provide a useful basis for the investigation of potential vegetation change. The shifts in the ordination space represent more minor changes than those predicted in previous studies. This suggests that the potential for major change is lower when environmental factors such as soil and management are considered in addition to climate. The potential for change is also reduced when vegetation is considered as a whole rather than on an individual species basis, due to both interspecific interactions and interactions with environmental factors acting as constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]