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Aim: The field of biogeography is often described as a hub between research disciplines. Here we apply science mapping to study how biogeography has changed and evolved between 1995 and April 2022, and to analyse the mix of disciplines used in this field. We explore how research foci have changed over time and if biogeographical topics have entered the public discourse. Location: Local to global. Taxon: All taxa. Methods: We created a semantic map of the field based on co‐occurrences of keywords or composite keywords from 40,000+ scientific papers published between the 1970s and April 2022, structuring these data into three hierarchical sets. A fourth set of Top 100 researchers was constructed in September 2022. To address our public‐discourse question, we used the Factiva archive of global media. Results: Five core journals contained 14,386 papers (or 35.7% of the full set), while the remaining papers appeared in 2247 journals of which 59% included only one or two biogeographical papers. Since 1995, frequencies of keywords related to core concerns of biogeography have remained stable or even decreased, while 'computing' and 'climate change' have increased. There is an increasing association with Mathematics & Statistics, Computer Sciences, and Planning & Management, and a decreased association with Physical Geography. Biogeography‐related terms increasingly appearing in the public discourse are 'biodiversity', 'urban nature', 'conservation', 'extinction' and 'rewilding', while more technical concepts, such as 'ecoregions', 'macroecology' and 'island biogeography' remain at very low rates. Main Conclusions: Biogeographical research is moving towards the social sciences, probably linked to a growing concern over global environmental issues and the Anthropocene. It is difficult to disentangle to what extent the public discourse is influenced by biogeographical research or vice versa, but 'rewilding' and 'extinction' are examples of topics that began in basic ecological‐biogeographical research and are now debated publicly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following our critique, Chan et al. defend the approach used in their original paper. They reveal their "iterative strategy of SEM" (structural equation modelling), which they claim is "standard" (we show otherwise) and "required for the proper and most effective use of SEM" for hypothesis testing. However, publishing their detailed procedure exposes fundamental flaws: capitalizing on chance and violating important assumptions and principles of SEM. They used the same data to first explore numerous correlations, then fit 29 candidate models (all failed) using the best correlates, then fix model parameters to gain degrees of freedom, then evaluate the "best" model. In producing the "best" model, they fixed five parameters using estimates from regression on the same dataset. They further argue that their stationary bootstrap cures the problems of bias and pseudoreplication; we disagree. At best, Chan et al. developed a hypothesis; they did not perform a valid test of one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Contemporary and projected shifts in global fire regimes highlight the importance of understanding how fire affects ecosystem function and biodiversity across taxa and geographies. Pyrodiversity, or heterogeneity in fire history, is often an important driver of biodiversity, though it has been largely overlooked until relatively recently. In this paper, we synthesise previous research to develop a theoretical framework on pyrodiversity–biodiversity relationships and propose future research and conservation management directions. Theoretical Framework: Pyrodiversity may affect biodiversity by diversifying available ecological niches, stabilising community networks and/or supporting diverse species pools available for post‐fire colonisation. Further, pyrodiversity's effects on biodiversity vary across different spatial, temporal and organismal scales depending on the mobility and other life history traits of the organisms in question and may be mediated by regional eco‐evolutionary factors such as historical fire regimes. Developing a generalisable understanding of pyrodiversity effects on biodiversity has been challenging, in part because pyrodiversity can be quantified in various ways. Applying the Pyrodiversity Concept: Exclusion of Indigenous fire stewardship, fire suppression, increased unplanned ignitions and climate change have led to dramatic shifts in fire regimes globally. Such shifts include departures from historic levels of pyrodiversity and add to existing challenges to biodiversity conservation in fire‐prone landscapes. Managers navigating these challenges can be aided by targeted research into observed contemporary pyrodiversity–biodiversity relationships as well as knowledge of historical reference conditions informed by both Indigenous and local ecological knowledge and western science. Future Research Directions: Several promising avenues exist for the advancement of pyrodiversity science to further both theoretical and practical goals. These lines of investigation include but are not limited to (1) testing the increasing variety of pyrodiversity metrics and analytical approaches; (2) assessing the spatial and temporal scale‐dependence of pyrodiversity's influence; (3) reconstructing historical pyrodiversity patterns and developing methods for predicting and/or promoting future pyrodiversity; and (4) expanding the focus of pyrodiversity science beyond biodiversity to better understand its influence on ecosystem function and processes more broadly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The global distribution and diversity of mites, including the species rich and highly host plant‐specific eriophyoid mites, are important questions in biogeography and biodiversity conservation. Here we critique the paper of Li et al. (2023) titled 'Global patterns and drivers of herbivorous eriophyoid mite species diversity'. Location: Global Taxon: Eriophyoid mites (Acari: Eriophyoidea) Methods: We assert that the data set utilized (less than 4,500 eriophyoid species) consisted of only the described extant species, not all extant species. We then provide evidence that the utilised data set represents only a small proportion of the likely global total of eriophyoid species and therefore provides a far from complete representation of their global distribution. Results: Most collections of extant eriophyoid mites have been conducted in temperate regions where most taxonomic specialists have been active, and not in the largely unstudied tropical regions which contain a very substantial majority of all plant diversity. Most undescribed eriophyoid diversity is therefore highly likely to be found in the tropics. This suggests that the global modelling analyses of Li et al. (2023) were very likely applied to a highly inaccurate data set. Main Conclusions: The actual global distribution and total number of eriophyoid mite species can only be more reliably estimated by systematic taxonomic studies that cover the entire global distribution of plant diversity, which implies a strong focus on the tropical regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological networks are increasingly studied at large spatial scales, expanding their focus from a conceptual tool for community ecology into one that also addresses questions in biogeography and macroecology. This effort is supported by increased access to standardized information on ecological networks, in the form of openly accessible databases. Yet, there has been no systematic evaluation of the fitness for purpose of these data to explore synthesis questions at very large spatial scales. In particular, because the sampling of ecological networks is a difficult task, they are likely to not have a good representation of the diversity of Earth's bioclimatic conditions, likely to be spatially aggregated, and therefore unlikely to achieve broad representativeness. In this paper, we analyse over 1300 ecological networks in the mangal.io database, and discuss their coverage of climates, and the geographic areas in which there is a deficit of data on ecological networks. Taken together, our results suggest that while some information about the global structure of ecological networks is available, it remains fragmented over space, with further differences by types of ecological interactions. This causes great concerns both for our ability to transfer knowledge from one region to the next, but also to forecast the structural change in networks under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The Expansion‐Contraction model has been used to explain the responses of species to climatic changes. During periods of unfavourable climatic conditions, species retreat to refugia from where they may later expand. This paper focuses on the palaeoecology of red deer over the past 54 ka across Europe and the Urals, to reveal patterns of change in their range and explore the role of environmental conditions in determining their distribution. Location: Europe and western Asia to 63°E. Taxon: Red deer (Cervus elaphus). Methods: We collected 984 records of radiocarbon‐dated red deer subfossils from the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, including 93 original dates. For each deer sample we compiled climatic and biome type data for the corresponding time intervals. Results: During the last 54 ka changes in red deer range in Europe and the Urals were asynchronous and differed between western and eastern Europe and western Asia due to different environmental conditions in those regions. The range of suitable areas for deer during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was larger than previously thought and covered vast regions not only in southern but also in western and eastern Europe. Throughout the period investigated the majority of specimens inhabited forests in the temperate climatic zone. The contribution of forests in deer localities significantly decreased during the last 4 ka, due to deforestation of Europe caused by humans. Mean January temperature was the main limiting factor for species distribution. Over 90% of the samples were found in areas where mean January temperature was above −10°C. Main conclusions: Red deer response to climatic oscillations are in agreement with the Expansion‐Contraction model but in contradiction to the statement of only the southernmost LGM refugia of the species. During the last 54 ka red deer occurred mostly in forests of the temperate climatic zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is a consequence of evolutionary and ecological mechanisms acting over long history, and thus is best investigated with organisms that have rich fossil records. However, combined neontological‐palaeontological investigations are mostly limited to large, shelled invertebrates, which keeps our mechanistic understanding of LDGs in its infancy. This paper aims to describe the modern meiobenthic ostracod LDG and to explore the possible controlling factors and the evolutionary mechanisms of this large‐scale biodiversity pattern. Location: Present‐day Western North Atlantic. Taxon: Ostracoda. Methods: We compiled ostracod census data from shallow‐marine environments of the western North Atlantic Ocean. Using these data, we documented the marine LDG with multiple metrics of alpha, beta (nestedness and turnover) and gamma diversity, and we tested whether macroecological patterns could be governed by different environmental factors, including temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH and primary productivity. We also explored the geologic age distribution of ostracod genera to investigate the evolutionary mechanisms underpinning the LDG. Results: Our results show that temperature and climatic niche conservatism are important in setting LDGs of these small, poorly dispersing organisms. We also found evidence for some dispersal‐driven spatial dynamics in the ostracod LDG. Compared to patterns observed in marine bivalves, however, dispersal dynamics were weaker and they were bi‐directional, rather than following the 'out‐of‐the‐tropics' model. Main conclusions: Our detailed analyses revealed that meiobenthic organisms, which comprise two‐thirds of marine diversity, do not always follow the same rules as larger, better‐studied organisms. Our findings suggest that the understudied majority of biodiversity may be more sensitive to climate than well‐studied, large organisms. This implies that the impacts of ongoing Anthropocene climatic change on marine ecosystems may be much more serious than presently thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In their recent critique, Qian et al. stated that the results of structural equation modeling analysis (SEM) in Chan et al. were flawed. Here, we show that the source of the difference, in their reanalysis, is that Qian et al. did not follow the standard, iterative strategy of SEM, which allows researchers to evaluate which model offers the best account of the data in both absolute and relative terms. Here, we provide step‐by‐step instructions to reproduce our published results. We address—and aim to resolve—Qian et al.'s concerns regarding SEM. Moreover, in our original paper, we used three distinct statistical methods—hierarchical partitioning, SEM and stationary bootstrap—to show that different temporal scales of environmental variability differentially impact the elevational range size (ERS) of species. We believe it is time to move on to probing the pressing issue of how and why climatic variability impacts ERS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Within the past few decades, seven of the 25 historically described populations of American pikas ( Ochotona princeps) in the Great Basin of arid western North America appear to have become extinct. In this paper, the prehistoric record for pikas in the Great Basin is used to place these losses in deeper historical context. Location The Great Basin, or area of internal drainage, of the western United States. Methods The location, elevation, and age of all reported prehistoric Great Basin specimens of American pikas were extracted from the literature. Elevations of extinct pika populations were arrayed through time, and latitudes and longitudes of those populations used to determine changing distances of those populations from the nearest extant populations. Results The average elevation of now-extinct Great Basin pika populations during the late Wisconsinan ( c. 40,000–10,000 radiocarbon years ago) and early Holocene ( c. 10,000–7500 years ago) was 1750 m. During the hot and dry middle Holocene ( c. 7500–4500 years ago), the average elevation of these populations rose 435 m, to 2168 m. All prehistorically known late Holocene ( c. 4500–200 years ago) populations in the Great Basin are from mountain ranges that currently support populations of this animal, but historic period losses have caused the average elevation of pika populations to rise an additional 152 m. The total elevational increase, from the late Wisconsinan and early Holocene to today, has been 783 m. As lower elevation pika populations were lost, their distribution increasingly came to resemble its modern form. During the late Wisconsinan, now-extinct pika populations were located an average of 170 km from the nearest extant population. By the late Holocene, this distance had declined to 30 km. Main conclusions Prehistoric alterations in the distribution of pika population in the Great Basin were driven by climate change and attendant impacts on vegetation. Today, Great Basin pikas contend with both climate change and anthropogenic impacts and thus may be on the brink of extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractBIOME 6000 is an international project to map vegetation globally at mid-Holocene (6000 14C yr bp) and last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr bp), with a view to evaluating coupled climate-biosphere model results. Primary palaeoecological data are assigned to biomes using an explicit algorithm based on plant functional types. This paper introduces the second Special Feature on BIOME 6000. Site-based global biome maps are shown with data from North America, Eurasia (except South and Southeast Asia) and Africa at both time periods. A map based on surface samples shows the method’s skill in reconstructing present-day biomes. Cold and dry conditions at LGM favoured extensive tundra and steppe. These biomes intergraded in northern Eurasia. Northern hemisphere forest biomes were displaced southward. Boreal evergreen forests (taiga) and temperate deciduous forests were fragmented, while European and East Asian steppes were greatly extended. Tropical moist forests (i.e. tropical rain forest and tropical seasonal forest) in Africa were reduced. In south-western North America, desert and steppe were replaced by open conifer woodland, opposite to the general arid trend but consistent with modelled southward displacement of the jet stream. The Arctic forest limit was shifted slighly north at 6000 14C yr bp in some sectors, but not in all. Northern temperate forest zones were generally shifted greater distances north. Warmer winters as well as summers in several regions are required to explain these shifts. Temperate deciduous forests in Europe were greatly extended, into the Mediterranean region as well as to the north. Steppe encroached on forest biomes in interior North America, but not in central Asia. Enhanced monsoons extended forest biomes in China inland and Sahelian vegetation into the Sahara while the African tropical rain forest was also reduced, consistent with a modelled northward shift of the ITCZ and a more seasonal climate in the equatorial zone. Palaeobiome maps show the outcome of separate, independent migrations of plant taxa in response to climate change. The average composition of biomes at LGM was often markedly different from today. Refugia for the temperate deciduous and tropical rain forest biomes may have existed offshore at LGM, but their characteristic taxa also persisted as components of other biomes. Examples include temperate deciduous trees that survived in cool mixed forest in eastern Europe, and tropical evergreen trees that survived in tropical seasonal forest in Africa. The sequence of biome shifts during a glacial-interglacial cycle may help account for some disjunct distributions of plant taxa. For example, the now-arid Saharan mountains may have linked Mediterranean and African tropical montane floras during enhanced monsoon regimes. Major changes in physical land-surface conditions, shown by the palaeobiome data, have implications for the global climate. The data can be used directly to evaluate the output of coupled atmosphere-biosphere models. The data could also be objectively generalized to yield realistic gridded land-surface maps, for use in sensitivity experiments with atmospheric models. Recent analyses of vegetation-climate feedbacks have focused on the hypothesized positive feedback effects of climate-induced vegetation changes in the Sahara/Sahel region and the Arctic during the mid-Holocene. However, a far wider spectrum of interactions potentially exists and could be investigated, using these data, both for 6000 14C yr bp and for the LGM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim In contrast to the attention given to southern Europe both as a centre of speciation and differentiation and as a Pleistocene refugium of Western Palaearctic taxa, North Africa has been relatively neglected. In this paper, we set out to address this shortfall. Location North-West Africa and the Mediterranean. Methods We reviewed the existing literature on the biogeography of North Africa, and carried out analyses of species distribution data using parsimony, nestedness and co-occurrence methods. Results In many cases, distribution patterns of non-flying mammals, bats, amphibians, reptiles, butterflies, zygaenid moths and odonates demonstrated important biogeographical affinities between Europe and North Africa at the species level. On the other hand, species co-occurrence, nestedness and parsimony analysis also revealed some deep splits between the Maghreb and Europe; yet even in these cases the closest affinities were found between the Iberian Peninsula and the Maghreb. Furthermore, North Africa harbours the highest proportion of endemic taxa (13.7%) across all groups analysed. Many molecular studies demonstrated a strong genetic cohesiveness between North Africa and Europe despite the potential barrier effect of the Mediterranean Sea. In other taxa, however, remarkable splits were detected. In addition, southern European genetic lineages were often nested within North African clades, and many taxa showed exceptionally high genetic variability and differentiation in this region. Main conclusions The Maghreb was an important differentiation and speciation centre for thermophilic organisms during the Pliocene and Pleistocene with high relevance as a colonization source for Europe. The regions around the sea straits of Gibraltar and Sicily have acted as important biogeographical links between North Africa and Europe at different times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Species distribution models have been widely used to tackle ecological, evolutionary and conservation problems. Most species distribution modelling techniques produce continuous suitability predictions, but many real applications (e.g. reserve design, species invasion and climate change impact assessment) and model evaluations require binary outputs, and thresholds are needed for these transformations. Although there are many threshold selection methods for presence/absence data, it is unclear whether these are suitable for presence-only data. In this paper, we investigate mathematically and empirically which of the existing threshold selection methods can be used confidently with presence-only data. Location We used real spatially explicit environmental data derived from the western part of the state of Victoria, south-eastern Australia, and simulated species distributions within this area. Methods Thirteen existing threshold selection methods were investigated mathematically to see whether the same threshold can be produced using either presence/absence data or presence-only data. We further adopted a simulation approach, created many virtual species with differing prevalences in a real landscape in south-eastern Australia, generated data sets with different proportions of pseudo-absences, built eight types of models with four modelling techniques, and investigated the behaviours of four threshold selection methods in these situations. Results Three threshold selection methods were not affected by pseudo-absences, including max SSS (which is based on maximizing the sum of sensitivity and specificity), the prevalence of model training data and the mean predicted value of a set of random points. Max SSS produced higher sensitivity in most cases and higher true skill statistic and kappa in many cases than the other methods. The other methods produced different thresholds from presence-only data to those determined from presence/absence data. Main conclusions Max SSS is a promising method for threshold selection when only presence data are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence and extent of past climatic changes on South American biota. To this end, we establish phylogeographical hypotheses for a monophyletic group of four cactophilic species of Drosophila (the Drosophila serido haplogroup) found in xeromorphic vegetation in Brazil. The effects of Quaternary palaeoclimatic oscillations on the demographic fluctuations of our biological model and its sister group Drosophila antonietae are investigated. Location Areas of eastern Brazil with open vegetation, including seasonally dry tropical forest ( SDTF) areas and montane savannas, which are disjunctly distributed in eastern Brazil. We also analysed populations of sand dune vegetation from littoral areas in Brazil. Methods Nucleotide information from 630 bp of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene from 441 individuals was used to perform a series of statistical analyses to infer a phylogeographical hypothesis for each species and to date the divergence time between the D. serido and D. antonietae haplogroups. Results All of the analysed species experienced population expansion during the Pleistocene, probably following the historical migratory routes that have been proposed for the expansion of SDTFs in Brazil. A bottleneck event in the Holocene was inferred for Drosophila seriema, probably due to ecological factors related to the geographical distribution of the host plant. The divergence time for the D. serido and D. antonietae haplogroups was calculated to have occurred during the early Pleistocene. Main conclusions Geographical and chronological evidence suggests that the major vicariant events between the D. serido and D. antonietae haplogroups, as well as the demographic fluctuations in each of the species within these lineages, could be related to the causal effects of Quaternary palaeoclimatic changes on the spatial dynamics of the SDTFs in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial distribution of a species is determined by dynamic processes such as reproduction, mortality and dispersal. Conventional static species distribution models (SDMs) do not incorporate these processes explicitly. This limits their applicability, particularly for non-equilibrium situations such as invasions or climate change. In this paper we show how dynamic SDMs can be formulated and fitted to data within a Bayesian framework. Our focus is on discrete state-space Markov process models which provide a flexible framework to account for stochasticity in key demographic processes, including dispersal, growth and competition. We show how to construct likelihood functions for such models (both discrete and continuous time versions) and how these can be combined with suitable observation models to conduct Bayesian parameter inference using computational techniques such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. We illustrate the current state-of-the-art with three contrasting examples using both simulated and empirical data. The use of simulated data allows the robustness of the methods to be tested with respect to deficiencies in both data and model. These examples show how mechanistic understanding of the processes that determine distribution and abundance can be combined with different sources of information at a range of spatial and temporal scales. Application of such techniques will enable more reliable inference and projections, e.g. under future climate change scenarios than is possible with purely correlative approaches. Conversely, confronting such process-oriented niche models with abundance and distribution data will test current understanding and may ultimately feedback to improve underlying ecological theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distribution and abundance of plant species are intimately related to their reproductive success, which in turn is affected by a large number of environmental variables. Yet, reproductive success is rarely taken into account in species distribution models ( SDMs). In this paper we examine the extent to which consideration of the reproduction niche and its relationship with temperature could improve SDMs. We review the literature on plant reproductive responses to temperature and the influence of these relationships on species range delimitation. We define the reproduction niche and discuss how temperature influences several stages of the reproductive process. Furthermore, we review examples that illustrate how the reproduction niche influences species distributions and discuss how aspects of the reproduction niche could be considered in SDMs. We show that the reproduction niche fundamentally influences species distributions and that in principle it is easy to include aspects of the reproduction niche in SDMs, although sufficient data are only available for a restricted number of species. Bayesian methods and inverse parameterization may be the most efficient way to use existing data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic vegetation models provide process-based explanations of the dynamics and the distribution of plant ecosystems. They offer significant advantages over static, correlative modelling approaches, particularly for ecosystems that are outside their equilibrium due to global change or climate change. A persistent problem, however, is their parameterization. Parameters and processes of dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are traditionally determined independently of the model, while model outputs are compared to empirical data for validation and informal model comparison only. But field data for such independent estimates of parameters and processes are often difficult to obtain, and the desire to include better descriptions of processes such as biotic interactions, dispersal, phenotypic plasticity and evolution in future vegetation models aggravates limitations related to the current parameterization paradigm. In this paper, we discuss the use of Bayesian methods to bridge this gap. We explain how Bayesian methods allow direct estimates of parameters and processes, encoded in prior distributions, to be combined with inverse estimates, encoded in likelihood functions. The combination of direct and inverse estimation of parameters and processes allows a much wider range of vegetation data to be used simultaneously, including vegetation inventories, species traits, species distributions, remote sensing, eddy flux measurements and palaeorecords. The possible reduction of uncertainty regarding structure, parameters and predictions of DVMs may not only foster scientific progress, but will also increase the relevance of these models for policy advice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the potential changes in species distributions under climate change scenarios. We suggest that we need to revisit the conceptual framework and ecological assumptions on which the relationship between species distributions and environment is based. We present a simple conceptual framework to examine the selection of environmental predictors and data resolution scales. These vary widely in recent papers, with light inconsistently included in the models. Focusing on light as a necessary component of plant SDMs, we briefly review its dependence on aspect and slope and existing knowledge of its influence on plant distribution. Differences in light regimes between north- and south-facing aspects in temperate latitudes can produce differences in temperature equivalent to moves 200 km polewards. Local topography may create refugia that are not recognized in many climate change SDMs using coarse-scale data. We argue that current assumptions about the selection of predictors and data resolution need further testing. Application of these ideas can clarify many issues of scale, extent and choice of predictors, and potentially improve the use of SDMs for climate change modelling of biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Feedbacks between climate warming and fire have the potential to alter Arctic and sub-Arctic vegetation. In this paper we assess the effects and interactions of temperature and wildfire on plant communities across the transition between the Arctic and sub-Arctic. Location Mackenzie Delta region, Northwest Territories, Canada. Methods We sampled air temperatures, green alder ( Alnus viridis ssp. fruticosa) cover, growth, reproduction and age distributions, and overall plant community composition on burned and unburned sites across a latitudinal gradient. Results Mean summer temperature across the study area decreased by 3 °C per degree of increasing latitude (6 °C across the study area). In the northern part of the study area, where seed viability was low, alder was less dominant than at southern sites where seed viability was high. The age structure of alder populations across the temperature gradient was highly variable, except in the northern part of the forest–tundra transition, where populations were dominated by young individuals. Alder growth and reproduction were significantly greater on burned sites (38–51 years following fire) than on unburned sites. North to south across the temperature gradient, vegetation changed from a community dominated by dwarf shrubs and fruticose lichens to one characterized by black spruce ( Picea mariana), alder and willows ( Salix spp.). Regardless of the position along the temperature gradient, burned sites were dominated by tall shrubs. Main conclusions Temperature limitation of alder abundance and repro-duction, combined with evidence of recent recruitment on unburned sites, indicates that alder is likely to respond to increased temperature. Elevated alder growth and reproduction on burned sites shows that wildfire also has an important influence on alder population dynamics. The magnitude of alder’s response to fire, combined with observations that burns at the southern margin of the low Arctic are shrub dominated, suggest that increases in the frequency of wildfire have the potential to alter northern vegetation on decadal scales. By creating new seedbeds, fire provides opportunities for colonization that may facilitate the northward movement of tall shrubs. Feedbacks between the global climate system and low Arctic vegetation make understanding the long-term impact of increasing fire frequency critical to predicting the response of northern ecosystems to global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim There remains some uncertainty concerning the causes of extinctions of Madagascar’s megafauna. One hypothesis is that they were caused by over-hunting by humans. A second hypothesis is that their extinction was caused by both environmental change and hunting. This paper systematically addresses the second hypothesis through examination of two new pollen records from south-eastern Madagascar alongside other published records across the island. Location South-eastern Madagascar. Methods We reconstructed past vegetation and fire dynamics over the past 6000 years at two sites in south-eastern Madagascar (Ste-Luce) using fossil pollen and charcoal contained in sedimentary sequences. We investigated drivers of vegetation changes and how these, in turn, influenced faunal species in the south-east, using published climatic, archaeological and faunal records. Further, we also used published records to provide a synthesis of environmental changes on the whole island. Results Vegetation reconstructions indicate that the mosaic vegetation in the region of Ste-Luce was highly dynamic in response to climatic changes. The open woodland, surrounding the littoral forest, transformed into an ericoid grassland between c. 5800 and 5200 cal. yr bp, possibly in response to a moderate drought recorded during this period. The littoral forest was more stable between c. 5100 and 1000 cal. yr bp, with only some minor compositional changes c. 2800 cal. yr bp and between c. 1900 and 1000 cal. yr bp. Significant forest decline, however, is observed at c. 950 cal. yr bp, coinciding with a drought and a marine surge. A comparison of these results with a synthesis of published vegetation records across the island shows asynchronous vegetation changes in response to various droughts during the Holocene, except for the 950 cal. yr bp drought event, with evidence of widespread vegetation transformations and fires across the island. Main conclusions Pronounced climatic desiccation between 1200 and 700 cal. yr bp may have been the slow driver framing and triggering vegetation transformations and decline in megafaunal populations. In addition, hunting by drought-impacted human inhabitants and competition with newly introduced cattle would have amplified the impacts on megafaunal populations, leading to numerous extinctions in this period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The spatial extent of western Canada’s current epidemic of mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is increasing. The roles of the various dispersal processes acting as drivers of range expansion are poorly understood for most species. The aim of this paper is to characterize the movement patterns of the mountain pine beetle in areas where range expansion is occurring, in order to describe the fine-scale spatial dynamics of processes associated with mountain pine beetle range expansion. Location Three regions of Canada’s Rocky Mountains: Kicking Horse Pass, Yellowhead Pass and Pine Pass. Methods Data on locations of mountain pine beetle-attacked trees of predominantly lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta var. latifolia) were obtained from annual fixed-wing aircraft surveys of forest health and helicopter-based GPS surveys of mountain pine beetle-damaged areas in British Columbia and Alberta. The annual (1999–2005) spatial extents of outbreak ranges were delineated from these data. Spatial analysis was conducted using the spatial–temporal analysis of moving polygons (STAMP), a recently developed pattern-based approach. Results We found that distant dispersal patterns (spot infestations) were most often associated with marginal increases in the areal size of mountain pine beetle range polygons. When the mountain pine beetle range size increased rapidly relative to the years examined, local dispersal patterns (adjacent infestation) were more common. In Pine Pass, long-range dispersal (> 2 km) markedly extended the north-east border of the mountain pine beetle range. In Yellowhead Pass and Kicking Horse Pass, the extension of the range occurred incrementally via ground-based spread. Main conclusions Dispersal of mountain pine beetle varies with geography as well as with host and beetle population dynamics. Although colonization is mediated by habitat connectivity, during periods of low overall habitat expansion, dispersal to new distant locations is common, whereas during periods of rapid invasion, locally connected spread is the dominant mode of dispersal. The propensity for long-range transport to establish new beetle populations, and thus to be considered a driver of range expansion, is likely to be determined by regional weather patterns, and influenced by local topography. We conclude that STAMP appears to be a useful approach for examining changes in biogeograpical ranges, with the potential to reveal both fine- and large-scale patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses some of the conceptual issues involved in the analysis of the age and origin of mediterranean-climate plant taxa, paying particular attention to three topics: (1) the importance of an explicit time frame in the definition of biogeographical origins, (2) the distinction between the age of traits and the age of taxa, and (3) the idea of mediterranean-type ecosystems as environmental islands. (1) In California, recent analyses demonstrate that the diversity of species derived from different biogeographical origins is significantly correlated with temperature and precipitation gradients. These patterns support the hypothesis that niche conservatism is an important factor structuring modern diversity gradients. However, depending on how far back in time one looks, a species may be assigned to different origins; future discussions of biogeographical origins need to address the appropriate time frame for analysis. (2) Past research has demonstrated distinctive trait syndromes among woody plants of the Mediterranean, Chile, California and Mexico, and proposed that the syndromes are associated with lineages of different age in these floras. Reanalysis of individual traits demonstrates greater variability among regions than previously reported. The classification of plants into ‘old’ and ‘new’ genera is re-evaluated, and it is suggested that greater attention be paid to the age of traits, rather than to the age of taxa, especially at an arbitrary rank such as genus. (3) The idea of mediterranean-climate regions as ‘climatic islands’ is examined. Space–time diagrams of climate enable one to view the emergence of distinctive climatic regions in a continental context. The terms ‘synclimatic’ and ‘anticlimatic’ are proposed, referring to migration routes that parallel climate contours in space and time versus those that cross contours (including the case of geographic stasis in the face of climate change), respectively. Mediterranean-climate regions have served as important case studies in plant ecology and evolution, and merit continued close examination in the light of continued advances in phylogenetics and palaeoecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The aims of this paper are to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history over the past 2000 years in a well-preserved rain-forest area, to understand interactions between climate, fire, and vegetation, and to predict how rain forest responds to global warming and increased intensity of human activity. Location Xishuangbanna, south-west China, 21–22° N, 101–102° E. Methods Phytolith (plant opal silica bodies) morphotypes, assemblages, and indices were used to reconstruct palaeovegetation and palaeoclimate changes in detail. Micro-charcoal particles found in phytolith slides, together with burnt phytoliths and highly weathered bulliform cells, were employed to reconstruct a record of past fire occurrence. A survey of field sediments, lithology, and 14C dating were also employed. Results Phytoliths were divided into 11 groups and classified into 33 well-described morphotypes according to their shape under light microscopy and their presumed anatomical origins and ecological significance. The phytolith assemblages were divided into six significant zones that reveal a complete history of vegetation changes corresponding to climate variation and fire occurrence. Phytolith assemblages and indices show that the palaeoclimate in the study area is characterized by the alternation of warm–wet and cool–dry conditions. Phytolith and charcoal records reveal that 12 fire episodes occurred. Comparison of burnt phytoliths with an aridity index (Iph) shows that fire episodes have a strong relationship with drought events. Main conclusions Our results indicate that fire occurrence in the tropical rain forest of Xishuangbanna is predominantly under the control of natural climate variability (drought events). Nearly every fire episode is coupled with a climatic event and has triggered vegetation composition changes marked by a pronounced expansion of grasses. This indicates that drought interacts with fire to exert a strong influence on the ecological dynamics of the rain forest. However, the impact of human activity in recent centuries is also significant. Our results are important for understanding the interactions between climate, fire, and vegetation, and for predicting how rain forest responds to global warming and increased human activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Understanding the driving forces and mechanisms of changes in past plant distribution and abundance will help assess the biological consequences of future climate change scenarios. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether modelled patterns of climate parameters 6000 years ago can account for the European distribution of Fagus sylvatica at that time. Consideration is also given to the role of non-climatic parameters as driving forces of the Holocene spread and population expansion of F. sylvatica. Location Europe. Methods European distributions were simulated using a physiologically-based bioclimatic model (STASH) driven by three different atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) outputs for 6000 years ago. Results The three simulations generally showed F. sylvatica to have potentially been as widespread 6000 years ago as it is today, which gives a profound mismatch with pollen-based reconstructions of the F. sylvatica distribution at that time. The results indicate that drier conditions during the growing season 6000 years ago could have caused a restriction of the range in the south. Poorer growth conditions with consequently reduced competitive ability were modelled for large parts of France. Main conclusions Consideration of the entire European range of F. sylvatica showed that no single driving force could account for the observed distributional limits 6000 years ago, or the pattern of spread during the Holocene. Climatic factors, particularly drought during the growing season, are the likely major determinants of the potential range. Climatic factors are regionally moderated by competition, disturbance effects and the intrinsically slow rate of population increase of F. sylvatica. Dynamic vegetation modelling is needed to account for potentially important competitive interactions and their relationship with changing climate. We identify uncertainties in the climate and pollen data, as well as the bioclimatic model, which suggest that the current study does not identify whether or not climate determined the distribution of F. sylvatica 6000 years ago. Pollen data are better suited for comparison with relative abundance gradients rather than absolute distributional limits. These uncertainties from a study of the past, where we have information about plant distribution and abundance, argue for extreme caution in making forecasts for the future using equilibrium models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines body size variation in both recent and Quaternary populations of the Japanese field mouse Apodemus argenteus in order to assess the relative effects on body size of climate change, isolation and competitive interactions with its congeneric A. speciosus. Both temporal (since the Last Glacial Maximum, LGM) and spatial (over the Japanese archipelago) scales are considered. The small field mouse is widespread in Japan, and the specimens examined were collected from 10 localities on islands of widely differing area (from 4 km2 to 230,510 km2) and at latitudes ranging from 30.3° N to 45.1° N. The effects of geographical factors such as latitude and island area on the size variation of A. argenteus were investigated, using the lower incisor size. In addition, the size of some specimens from two Quaternary localities was compared with the size of the extant specimens. Evolutionary rates of size change since the LGM were calculated in darwins. Hutchinson size ratios were used to examine the pattern of variation of the size segregation between the two Japanese field mice, A. argenteus and A. speciosus, in relation to time and space. There was a negative relationship between size and latitude among living A. argenteus populations. In addition, there was no effect of island area on body size, especially at higher latitudes. At lower latitudes, A. argenteus were larger on smaller islands, although this trend was not statistically significant. Quaternary specimens of A. argenteus were smaller in size than their living representatives. The interspecific size ratio between the two Japanese Apodemus was larger on smaller islands and at higher latitudes, and there has been a decrease in the size ratio between the two Apodemus since the LGM. Lastly, in accordance with the theory of character displacement, the small A. argenteus was larger in allopatry than in sympatry, whereas the large A. speciosus was smaller in allopatry than in sympatry. These results indicate that A. argenteus does not conform to Bergmann's rule or to the island rule. The variation in size for the small Japanese field mouse at both spatial and temporal scales may be related to climate change, with an additional effect of competition with the large field mouse, especially on smaller islands. The size convergence between the two Japanese Apodemus observed over the last 21,000 years may be explained by the diminution of available food resources due to the reduction of land mass areas following the LGM. It may also be the result of an evolution towards an optimal body size; a hypothesis previously proposed to explain the evolution of body size in island mammals. Lastly, the evolutionary rates of body size calculated for A. argenteus since the LGM are typical of rates calculated for other Quaternary mainland mammals, thus suggesting that the evolution in this species was not particularly rapid, as is often thought for island mammals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vegetation of subantarctic Campbell Island consists mainly of lowland Dracophyllum scrub and upland tussock grassland and tundra. Soon after the island was discovered in 1810, occupation by sealers and whalers led to localized burning and cutting of scrub. Further burning and cutting took place as a result of sheep farming between 1894 and 1931. Since the earliest photographs and vegetation descriptions of the island in the late nineteenth century, scrub cover has expanded markedly. Also, since the 1960s, the island has become warmer and drier. The aim of this paper is to quantify scrub changes as depicted in photo-sequences from the island, and to establish if the spread of scrub is a result of the cessation of anthropogenic activities or a response to global warming. Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°33.7′S, 169°09′E). Changes in scrub cover in the island were established through analysis of 33 photographic sequences in the island, the earliest photos dating back to 1888. Visual estimates were made of percentage woody cover in matching areas of repeat photographs, and of changes in scrub distribution with altitude and landscape type. Dracophyllum scrub was restricted at the time of the first photographs (1888) relative to its present extent, and earlier written observations suggest that there had been little change from the 1840s. Scrub cover has subsequently increased in most areas. Most of the spread occurred after the cessation of farming. Change has mostly consisted of a thickening and expansion of pre-existing scrub patches. There is no indication that the upper elevational limit of scrub has increased. Initial reduction of scrub was probably due to anthropogenic fire in the early nineteenth century, although it is possible that less favourable climates had also restricted its distribution. Failure of the scrub to regenerate significantly between 1840 and c. 1895 may also have been a consequence of generally cooler, wetter climates at this time. Rapid scrub expansion began between the end of farming and burning in 1931 and 1988 when the remaining feral sheep were removed. Sheep grazing in the absence of fire reduced competition, and encouraged regeneration and growth of woody scrub. Spread was probably assisted by a pronounced shift to warmer, drier climates in the second half of the twentieth century. Upper elevational limits of scrub have not increased, suggesting that factors other than summer temperature are controlling scrub line in this superoceanic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Aim: The Nearctic is a complex patchwork of habitats and geologic features that form barriers to gene flow resulting in phylogeographic structure and speciation in many lineages. Habitats are rarely stable over geologic time, and the Nearctic has undergone major climatic changes in the past few million years. We use the common kingsnake species complex to study how climate, geography, and history influence lineage formation over a large, complex landscape. Location: Nearctic/North America. Taxon: Common kingsnake, Lampropeltis getula, species complex. Methods: We analysed genome‐wide sequence data from 51 snakes spanning the majority of the species complex's range. We used population clustering, generalized dissimilarity modelling and coalescent methods to identify the number of genetic clusters within the L. getula complex, infer the environmental correlates of genetic differentiation, and estimate models of divergence and gene flow among lineages. Results: We identified three major lineages within the L. getula complex and further continuous spatial structure within lineages. The most important ecological correlates of genetic distance in the complex are related to aridity and precipitation, consistent with lineage breaks at the Great Plains/Desert ecotone and the Cochise filter barrier. Lineages are estimated to have undergone multiple rounds of isolation and secondary contact, with highly asymmetric migration occurring at present. Main conclusions Changing climates combined with a large and geologically complex landscape have resulted in a mosaic of discrete and spatially continuous genetic structure. Multiple rounds of isolation and secondary contact as climate fluctuated over the past ~4.4 My have likely driven the evolution of discrete lineages that maintain high levels of gene flow. Continuous structure is strongly shaped by aridity and precipitation, suggesting roles for major precipitation gradients in helping to maintain lineage identity in the face of gene flow when lineages are in geographic contact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Differences in realized and fundamental thermal niches can reveal how temperature constrains species distributions. Because climate‐induced range shifts assume that temperature influences distribution limits (i.e. climate equilibrium assumption), understanding the factors that determine the realized thermal niche of species is critical for understanding their climate tracking abilities. Location: Global, and the Great Plains–Rocky Mountain region, U.S.A. Taxon: Marine and freshwater fishes. Methods: Thermal niches were evaluated for two scales: Globally (n = 95 species) andacross the Great Plains–Rocky Mountain region, U.S.A (n = 28 species). We used a combination of realized and fundamental cold limit, thermal niche data to investigate how fish species overfill or underfill their distribution limit along elevation and latitudinal gradients in the context of four hypotheses about dispersal and movement. Results: First, freshwater species were not more likely than marine species to underfill their latitudinal cold‐edge limit, despite restricted dispersal in freshwater environments from biogeographic barriers. Second, biological traits of dispersal ability were not associated with patterns of overfilling or underfilling along latitudinal gradients, aside from migratory species being more likely to overfill their cold‐edge limits. Third, similar biological traits were not associated with freshwater fishes overfilling or underfilling their cold‐edge, elevation limit with respect to their cold‐edge latitudinal limit. Fourth, 78% of freshwater fish species (22 of 28) were observed underfilling their elevation limit relative to their latitudinal limit. Main conclusions Our results reveal that the climate equilibrium assumption is not satisfied for half of marine and freshwater fishes along thermal‐spatial gradients and is largely unrelated to dispersal and movement. Freshwater fishes appear particularly limited in their distribution potential along elevation gradients, given the strong patterns of elevation underfilling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Amazonian floodplains include distinct types of seasonally flooded habitats, determined by the flooding regime and sedimentation dynamics. Some bird species prefer specific habitat types within the floodplains. To investigate whether distinct habitats are differentially affected by geologic and climatic history, we compare population history in a sympatric and closely related pair of ovenbird species with different habitat associations. Location: Amazonian floodplains. Taxa: Synallaxis albigularis and Mazaria propinqua (Aves; Furnariidae). Methods: Occurrence records were obtained from museums and public databases. Genomic data included nuclear loci (UCE) and the mitogenome for 49 samples. SNPs from UCE data were used to infer population genetic structure and effective migration. Mitogenomes were used to build phylogenetic trees and chronograms. Both datasets were used to infer historical demographic changes and test demographic scenarios. Results: S. albigularis includes geographically structured mtDNA clades with a crown age of 250 ka, whereas M. propinqua includes a single clade with a crown age of 38 ka. Effective migration is lower at the base of the Andes for S. albigularis and at the lower Negro River for M. propinqua. Population expansion is detected for both species during the Quaternary, but was steeper and more recent in M. propinqua. Main conclusions: The differences in population histories relate to distinct habitat associations along Amazonian floodplains. Preference of M. propinqua for more ephemeral island habitats may favour local extinctions, leading to demographic change, low genetic variability, no population structure and smaller effective population size. In contrast, more resilient habitats along the floodplains inhabited by S. albigularis may sustain local populations, generating and maintaining local diversity. Our results suggest that climatic variations of the late Pleistocene and Holocene caused changes in distribution and connectivity of the different types of habitats along the Amazonian floodplains, affecting gene flow and population sizes of associated bird populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Reef fishes are commonly recognized as sentinels of the ongoing tropicalization in biogeographic transition zones between temperate and tropical areas. Despite the reliance of these marine ectotherms on the benthos, the importance of benthic habitat has rarely been considered as a factor constraining fish distribution. Therefore, our study aims at examining the consequences of both temperature and benthic variations on the fish fauna and diagnosing potential sentinels of these environmental changes. Location: Taiwan, West Pacific. Taxon: Teleostei (184 species). Methods: We examined how the partitioning of habitats can influence the specialization of fish fauna along a latitudinal gradient. We diagnosed 'specialist' and 'generalist' fishes in this partitioning. For each specialist, we further evaluated whether its distribution is constrained by temperature, benthic habitat or both factors combined. The change in sea surface temperature over the last three decades was also monitored. Results: Fish fauna showed the highest specialization when tropical and subtropical partitions of habitat were considered. Fifty‐one tropical specialists, 7 subtropical specialists and 21 possible generalists were identified. Among specialists, 13 species were associated with temperature, 19 with habitat and 26 with both factors. Steady warming occurred across latitudes, but was accentuated in the winter of subtropical habitat. Main Conclusions: Our results suggested that the distribution of some specialist fishes was constrained only by temperature while the distribution of some others also depended on the availability of benthic habitats. Consequently, under global warming, the distribution of some specialists might shift in a manner that follows the movement of isotherms, while the distribution of others might also be conditioned by the poleward shifts of benthos. A temporal mismatch between the emergence of suitable thermal environments and the arrival of some specialists may exist. Therefore, the tropicalization of high‐latitude areas may be characterized by different waves of colonization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate change is expected to impact mountain biodiversity by shifting species ranges and the biomes they shape. The extent and regional variation in these impacts are still poorly understood, particularly in the highly biodiverse Andes. Regional syntheses of climate change impacts on vegetation are pivotal to identify and guide research priorities. Here we review current data, knowledge and uncertainties in past, present and future climate change impacts on vegetation in the Andes. Location: Andes. Taxon: Plants. Methods: We (i) conducted a literature review on Andean vegetation responses to past and contemporary climatic change, (ii) analysed future climate projections for different elevations and slope orientations at 19 Andean locations using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, and (iii) calculated changes in the suitable climate envelope area of Andean biomes and compared these results to studies that used species distribution models. Results: Future climatic changes (2040–2070) are projected to be stronger at high‐elevation areas in the tropical Andes (up to 4°C under RCP 8.5), while in the temperate Andes temperature increases are projected to be up to 2°C. Under this worst‐case scenario, temperate deciduous forests and the grasslands/steppes from the Central and Southern Andes are predicted to show the greatest losses of suitable climatic space (30% and 17%–23%, respectively). The high vulnerability of these biomes contrasts with the low attention from researchers modelling Andean species distributions. Critical knowledge gaps include a lack of an Andean wide plant checklist, insufficient density of weather stations at high‐elevation areas, a lack of high‐resolution climatologies that accommodates the Andes' complex topography and climatic processes, insufficient data to model demographic and ecological processes, and low use of palaeo data for distribution modelling. Main conclusions: Climate change is likely to profoundly affect the extent and composition of Andean biomes. Temperate Andean biomes in particular are susceptible to substantial area contractions. There are, however, considerable challenges and uncertainties in modelling species and biome responses and a pressing need for a region‐wide approach to address knowledge gaps and improve understanding and monitoring of climate change impacts in these globally important biomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Understanding speciation mechanisms requires disentangling processes that promote and erode population‐level divergence. Three hypotheses are raised that contemporary population structure is mainly shaped by refugial isolation, gene flow or both. Testing these hypotheses requires range‐wide phylogeography and integrative analyses across scales. Here we aimed to (1) re‐estimate the previously unresolved nuclear divergence within a widespread bat; (2) test the above three phylogeographical hypotheses and (3) inform conservation management under climatic change. Location: North America including the Caribbean. Taxon: The big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus). Methods: We collected range‐wide samples and genome‐wide markers using restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing. Population structure was analysed by clustering methods and spatial estimations. Nuclear phylogeographical divergence was estimated using tree methods (concatenation and coalescence) and network analyses (TreeMix). Phylogeographical hypotheses were tested by comparing alternative evolutionary scenarios using demographic modelling. Species distribution modelling was used to help identify Pleistocene refugia and predict future range shifts under climatic change. Results: We identified three populations in the Caribbean, eastern and western North America. The western population further split into three phylogeographical clades: Pacific, southwestern North America and Mexico. Discordance among mitochondrial and nuclear topologies reflected strong impacts of gene flow without sex bias. Demographic modelling supported scenarios of historical isolation followed by secondary gene flow and estimated Holocene divergence times. Species distribution was essentially continuous during glaciation with possible regional isolation, and northward range shifts were predicted under future climatic change. Main Conclusions: Contemporary population divergence of big brown bats was shaped by both historical isolation and secondary gene flow, supporting the third phylogeographical hypothesis. While climatic change likely triggered initial divergence, ongoing gene flow has largely impacted the dynamic within‐species evolution and generated population divergence without speciation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Range shifts are a key process that determine species distributions and genetic patterns. A previous investigation reported that Juglans cinerea (butternut) has lower genetic diversity at higher latitudes, hypothesized to be the result of range shifts following the last glacial period. However, genetic patterns can also be impacted by modern ecogeographical conditions. Therefore, we re‐investigate the genetic patterns of butternut with additional northern population sampling, hindcasted species distribution models and fossil pollen records to clarify the impact of glaciation on butternut. Location: Eastern North America. Taxon: Juglans cinerea (L., Juglandaceae) (butternut). Methods: Using 11 microsatellites, we examined range‐wide spatial patterns of genetic diversity (allelic richness, heterozygosity, FST) for 1004 previously studied butternut individuals and an additional 757 samples. We constructed hindcast species distribution models and mapped fossil pollen records to evaluate habitat suitability and evidence of species' presence throughout space and time. Results: Contrary to previous work on butternut, we found that genetic diversity increased with distance to range edge, and previously observed latitudinal clines in diversity were likely due to a few outlier populations. Populations in New Brunswick, Canada were genetically distinct from other populations. At the Last Glacial Maximum, pollen records demonstrate butternut likely persisted near the glacial margin, and hindcast species distribution models identified suitable habitat in the southern United States and near Nova Scotia. Main conclusions: Genetic patterns in butternut may be shaped by both glaciation and modern environmental conditions. Pollen records and hindcast species distribution models combined with genetic distinctiveness in New Brunswick suggest that butternut may have persisted in cryptic northern refugia. We suggest that thorough sampling across a species range and evaluating multiple lines of evidence are essential to understanding past species movements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Macroevolutionary analysis is increasingly being used to study biodiversity responses to climate change, for example by using phylogenetic node ages to infer periods of diversification, or phylogenetic reconstruction of traits to infer adaptation to particular stresses. Here we apply a recently developed macroevolutionary method to investigate the responses of a diverse plant genus, Acacia, to increasing aridity and salinity in Australia from the Miocene to the present. We ask whether increase in tolerance of aridity and salinity coincided with periods of aridification, and if it allowed the radiation of Acacia into a wide range of niches. Taxon Acacia. Location: Australia. Methods: We applied the Niche Evolution Model (NEMo), which combines environmental (or ecological) niche modelling (ENM) with phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) in a single statistical framework, to a large database of Acacia presence‐only records and presence–absence survey sites in order to infer current environmental tolerances of Australia Acacia species and reconstruct the evolution of environmental tolerance to increasing aridity and salinity. Results: We find that patterns in evolution of Acacia, over time and across different habitat types, are consistent with the aridification history of Australia and suggests substantial ability to adapt to high aridity and salinity. Main conclusions Our results suggest that many Acacia lineages have been able to exploit new environments created during the aridification of Australia through evolution of environmental tolerance, resulting in their current dominance of many habitats across the continent. This study demonstrates that phylogenetic studies of the evolution of responses to changing environment can move beyond the application of simple trait‐based models, allowing the underlying processes of speciation, adaptation and dispersal to be explicitly modelled in a macroecological and macroevolutionary context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: A long history of isolation coupled with complex landscapes makes Madagascar ideal for exploring the historical factors that have shaped patterns of population diversity and endemism. Many species‐level studies have suggested Late Quaternary climate change may have influenced population dynamics in the tropics, but unique biomes and individual species properties may have driven idiosyncratic responses to these shifts. Here, we use community‐scale population genetic data to investigate the impact of Quaternary climate cycles on shared demographic response and investigate the contributions of both biotic and abiotic factors which shape these demographic trajectories. Location: Madagascar. Taxon Reptiles and Amphibians. Methods: Using community‐scale population genetic data, we implement a hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation approach to evaluate the degree of synchronous population expansion during glacial cycles across herpetofaunal assemblages both within and across discrete biomes and taxonomic groups. We use Bayesian model averaging to identify intrinsic and extrinsic conditions predictive of individualistic demographic change. Results: We find that demographic responses are not uniform across groups, with more than 50% of all populations showing signal of recent expansion. Our explanatory models indicate species occupying narrow elevational ranges had a higher probability of expansion, while amphibian assemblages showed higher genetic diversity and greater departures from population neutrality. Expansion events were largely asynchronous, with coexpansion found in less than half of all populations. Exceptionally, 69%–74% of all humid‐restricted populations coexpanded during the start of the Last Glacial Period at around 100 kya, supporting the hypothesis of a more extensive humid forest cover for Madagascar during this time. Main conclusions: We show that differences in life history and regional biogeography have contributed to patterns of richness and endemism found across Madagascar, and historical connectivity across humid forests has been an important factor in shaping present‐day diversity and endemism on Madagascar, particularly for amphibians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Invasive species provide an opportunity to study biogeography in action, allowing us to observe how species adapt and fill their environmental niche when introduced to new ecological settings. Here we use sea spurge—a foredune specialist plant species native to Europe which has recently spread across Australia's southern coasts—as a model system to explore species' environmental niches adaptations and potential for future spread following introduction outside their native range. Location: Europe and Australia. Taxon: Sea spurge, Euphorbiaparalias, Euphorbiaceae. Methods: We compiled presence‐absence data of E.paralias from >190,000 vegetation surveys in the native and invaded range. We combined presence‐absence data with information on climate, soil, coastal morphology and human pressure, to test whether E.paralias' environmental niche has shifted following invasion and used species distributions models (SDMs) to map its invasion potential under current and future climatic conditions. Results: The environmental niche of E.paralias has shifted since reaching Australia, expanding into areas further away from people, closer to the shoreline and with higher temperatures. SDMs revealed that alongside broad‐scale gradients in temperature and rainfall, the distribution of E.paralias is also constrained by soil substrate and dune morphology—highlighting the importance of these fine‐scale drivers in shaping invasion dynamics in coastal environments. Moreover, SDMs suggest that future expansion in Australia will result from continued niche filling, not changes in climatic suitability. Main conclusions: Despite its impressive dispersal ability, E.paralias has not yet reached equilibrium in its invaded range and is likely to continue to expand its distribution in Australia regardless of climate change. E.paralias' key to success has been its ability to suit novel environments. We provide one of the first examples of how to leverage distribution data and SDMs to test hypotheses about niche conservatism and expansion in coastal dune invasive plant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Genetic connectivity is a key component of species resilience to climate change in terms of recovery capacity following disturbance and capacity to disperse to novel locations as the climate warms and isotherms shift poleward. We aimed to strengthen our understanding of resilience in this context by characterizing patterns of connectivity and genetic diversity in a broadcast spawning coral across a tropical-- temperate transition zone. We hypothesize genetic differentiation between tropical and temperate populations and decreasing genetic diversity with higher latitudes. Location: Western Australia (WA). Taxon: Turbinaria species complex. Turbinaria reniformis' Oken, 1815 (Scleractinia: Dendrophylliidae). Methods: A total of 930 target corals were sampled from 10 locations between 13 and 32° latitude spanning a 9°C mean temperature range. In situ species identification of T. reniformis is hindered by morphological plasticity and homoplasy with sister species. We combined Sanger sequencing of two mitochondrial DNA markers and high-throughput genotyping by sequencing (GBS) to isolate a single genetic Turbinaria lineage from our dataset through which patterns of genetic flow and diversity along the WA coastline could be explored using population- and individual-based clustering analyses. Results: Mitochondrial DNA sequence variation was low among Turbinaria samples and could not resolve individual species. Using GBS, we identified three genetically distinct lineages. Subsequent analyses within one of these lineages revealed strong spatial subdivision with 2-3 genetic clusters. While temperate populations were genetically diverged from more tropical sites, we did not observe declines in genetic diversity with latitude. Main conclusions: Tropical populations of T. 'reniformis' in Western Australia exhibit strong genetic connectivity, which extends to a southern limit at sub-tropical Shark Bay. Temperate populations are genetically isolated from their tropical counterparts but have relatively high genetic diversity. While the maintenance of genetic variation in temperate populations may provide some resilience to future climate scenarios, their isolation may increase their vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Species ranges are highly dynamic, shifting in space and time as a result of complex ecological and evolutionary processes. Disentangling the relative contribution of both processes is challenging but of primary importance for forecasting species distributions under climate change. Here, we use the spectacular range expansion (ca. 1000 km poleward shift within 10 years) of the butterfly Pieris mannii to unravel the factors underlying range dynamics, specifically the role of (i) niche evolution (changes in host-plant preference and acceptance) and (ii) ecological processes (climate change). Location: Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, France; North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate and Hesse, Germany. Taxon: Insect and angiosperms. Methods: We employed a combination of (i) common garden experiments, based on replicated populations from the species' historical and newly established range and host-plant species representative for each distribution range, co-occurrence analyses and (ii) grid-based correlative species distribution modelling (SDM) using Maxent. Results: We observed changes in oviposition preference, with females from the newly established populations showing reduced host-plant specialization and also an overall increased fecundity. These changes in behaviour and life history may have enabled using a broader range of habitats and thus facilitated the recent range expansion. In contrast, our results indicate that the range expansion is unlikely to be directly caused by anthropogenic climate change, as the range was not constrained by climate in the first place. Main conclusions: We conclude that evolution of a broader dietary niche rather than climate change is associated with the rapid range expansion, and discuss potential indirect consequences of climate change as trigger for the genetic differences found. Our study thus illustrates the importance of species interactions in shaping species distributions and range shifts, and draws attention to indirect effects of climate change. Embracing this complexity is likely the key to a better understanding of range dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The interconnectedness and biotic interchange among Neotropical biomes are thought to play an important role in driving adaptation and diversification. However, how these processes are in synteny to trait evolution in species of open and xeric areas is poorly studied. Here, we investigate the spatial and temporal dimensions of evolution and candidate traits associated with biome shifts in xeric vegetation, focusing on the family Cactaceae. Location: Xeric and open areas of South America. Taxon: Genus Cereus Mill. (Cactaceae, Cereeae). Methods: We applied biogeographical reconstructions on a time-calibrated phylog- eny inferred from multilocus data (ddRAD-Seq) using Bayesian analyses on BEAST2, species distribution modelling in Maxent, the reconstruction of biome affinities and niche shift analyses based on abiotic traits (climate and soil) using Mk-model in BioGeoBEARS, and phenotypic trait-based analysis in Mesquite. Results: The Cerrado domain is the ancestral area of Cereus, with most diversification events occurring in a time of intense orogenesis, climatic changes, and marine regressions within the last 5 Mya. Events of biome transition from the seasonally dry tropical forest (SDTF) were also associated with trait and niche shifts. Main conclusions: The diversification of the xerophyte genus Cereus is associated with the climatic and geomorphological instabilities of the Pliocene and Pleistocene epochs. The Cerrado domain states an important region of dispersal for the genus. Some geographical range movements involved biome shifts associated with niche evolution while others were restricted to a simple biogeographical transition without niche change. Particular clades that experienced biome shifts displayed some phenotypic state changes, suggesting a role of biotic traits for environment transition. The results observed in Cereus may be a biogeographical pattern that should be tested with other cactus species, such as Pilosocereus spp., or species of xeric habitats, such as Annonaceae and Vochysiaceae. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical climates and the biodiversity associated with them have long interested natural historians. Alexander von Humboldt inspired a generation of scientists, such as Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace, to observe and study tropical ecosystems. More recently, the mid-20th century saw Theodosius Dobzhansky and Daniel Janzen lay the foundations for studying adaptation to tropical climates. Now in the 21st century, we are beginning to realize the threats posed by current and future climate change to tropical populations which, despite relatively low levels of projected warming for low-latitude regions, face potentially significant detrimental impacts. Building on the insights of researchers in decades and centuries past, improved understanding of tropical ecology, evolution and biogeography will help us to conceive how future global change will impact on biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) remains an enigmatic period in southeast Australia due to the limited spatial and temporal resolution of its palaeoclimatic records. A major feature of the LGM landscape was the existence of the Bassian Land Bridge, joining Tasmania with the mainland of Australia during periods of low sea level, and potentially facilitating increased biotic movement between these regions. To better understand biogeographical changes on the land bridge and in southeast Australia generally during the LGM, we present a 35 ka‐year palaeoecological record from one of the larger islands of Bass Strait. Location: Bass Strait, southeast Australia. Taxon: Eucalyptus, Poaceae, Monotoca, Myriophyllum, Zygnemataceae, Botryococcus, Pediastrum. Methods: Pollen, charcoal, and non‐pollen palynomorphs were analysed in a 1.75‐m sediment core from truwana/Cape Barren Island, Bass Strait, to reconstruct changes in vegetation, fire regimes and lake levels on the Bassian Land Bridge. Results were then compared to existing palaeoenvironmental studies in the region to develop a broader context of the prevailing land bridge environment and the potential influence on biotic dispersals in Australia during the last glacial period. Results: Results suggest a major vegetation shift on the Bassian Land Bridge in response to the establishment of the LGM climate, with grassland expansion at the expense of woodland from ~29–11 ka. Floristic richness, biomass burned and lake levels also markedly decreased through this period, with the driest interval being ~25–18 ka. Dryland herbaceous taxa dispersed between the mainland and Tasmania when the landbridge was fully exposed. Main conclusions: In agreement with previous studies, our results show that the dry grassland that dominated southeast Australia (and Southern Hemisphere mid‐latitude areas) during the LGM also extended across the Bassian Land Bridge. The prevailing environment on the land bridge is likely to have exerted a selective influence on biotic dispersals in Australia during glacial periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populations whose dynamics are driven by correlated environmental stochasticity face increased risk of extinction. Forests in particular are being pushed to their physiological limits under global change; hence, the analysis of common patterns of tree performance across scales becomes crucial to discern early warning signals and tipping points. Here, we critically evaluate customary and recent approaches for the analysis of time series of radial growth based on simple correlations as measure of direction and signal strength shared by spatially segregated forests (synchrony). By accounting for changes in spatial distribution of populations and temporal coverage of tree‐ring records, we show that growth synchrony has not substantially augmented for the past 150 years across Europe, a continent with high availability of tree‐ring series. We guard against the use of absolute correlations as a metric of synchrony and stress that robust analytical methods should be applied to evaluate synchrony trends when using biased spatiotemporal databases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Past pollen records reveal the changes in latitudinal distribution of plants in relation to climate, particularly their expansion in response to global warming. The maximum northward expansion of the mangrove genus Avicennia since the Early Eocene is known, but this information is missing for other mangrove taxa. Here, we evaluate the diversity of past mangroves with respect to latitude during three Cenozoic thermal maxima (PETM: 56 Ma; EECO: 54–49 Ma; MMCO: 17–14 Ma). Location: North Atlantic, Mediterranean. Taxa: Avicennia, other mangrove taxa (Rhizophoraceae, Nypa, Xylocarpus, Pelliciera, etc.). Method: We collected well‐dated marine sediments along a Northern Hemisphere latitudinal transect and we analysed their pollen content in order to compare the past distribution of mangrove taxa with the present. The analysis of 89 samples (PETM: 13; EECO: 31; MMCO: 45) was performed and interpreted using a robust botanical background for identification of pollen grains and their representativeness in marine sediments. Results: During the Early Eocene, two palaeolatitudinal thresholds at 65–70°N and 35°N, respectively, delimited the Avicennia‐only mangrove from a diversified but scrawny mangrove and finally from a diversified and well‐developed mangrove. The Avicennia threshold was selective at 40°N during the Mid‐Miocene. The Avicennia range limit was up to 10–15° poleward of the limit for other mangrove taxa during the Early Eocene and the Mid‐Miocene compared with 9° at present. Main conclusions: A buffer zone characterised by a diversified but scrawny mangrove co‐occurring with a few megathermal plants occurred in the Early Eocene between 35°N and 65–70°N. This finding questions the relative influence of a more 'equable' climate and/or the ability of some taxa to expand towards areas with cooler conditions in the past. Mangrove provincialism, which was established progressively after the Early Eocene, was probably forced by plate tectonics. The taxonomic impoverishment of the Atlantic East Pacific province was probably caused by successive periods of global cooling. These results support the Tethyan origin of the mangroves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Shaped by climate change and sea‐level rise, tidal salt marshes represent ephemeral systems that are home to only a few species. The dynamic ecological histories of these habitats, however, render it challenging to reconstruct the complete biogeographical histories of their endemic taxa. To better understand the evolutionary history of tidal marsh endemic sparrows, we employ genomic data to evaluate the timing and direction of tidal marsh colonization events and leverage these data to test a series of models describing the biogeographical history of our study taxa. Location: North America. Taxon: Ammospiza Sparrows. Methods: We sampled 54 individuals from the Ammospiza clade from freshwater and saltwater habitats. We sequenced whole genomes and generated a dataset containing 21 million SNPs. Detailed phylogenomic analyses were conducted to identify relationships between tidal marsh and freshwater species. These phylogenies were then used to date divergence times and reconstruct the biogeographical history of the clade as well as identify historic signals of introgression. Results: Phylogenies based on several million SNPs supported well‐resolved clades that correspond to all previous species designations. Demographic modelling within A. nelsoni provided further resolution into the subspecies topology. Phylogenetic and biogeographical reconstructions support a series of saltwater to freshwater colonization events, with some endemic taxa exhibiting associations with tidal marsh habitat over longer evolutionary time‐scales and some habitat transitions occurring as recently as 5,000 years ago. Main Conclusions: Biogeographical and phylogenomic reconstructions support an original freshwater origin of the Ammospiza sparrows currently inhabiting tidal marshes in North America. We also found strong evidence for a saltwater to freshwater transition in A. n. subvirgatus as opposed to the long hypothesized freshwater origin of this group. We conclude that the increased resolution from genomic data paired with an integrative framework of phylogenomic, demographic and biogeographical reconstructions is important for resolving evolutionary histories in complex and ephemeral environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: We investigate how plant distributions are shaped by current and palaeoclimate regimes. We specifically use global conifer biodiversity to test if palaeoclimatic signatures are stronger in range‐restricted taxa relative to widespread taxa. Location: Global. Taxon: Coniferales. Methods: We combine global geographical occurrences for 606 conifer species and 69 conifer genera with climate information (modern day and palaeoclimate) to examine the predictors of current conifer distribution. We test how climate predicts the richness of range‐restricted taxa and influences turnover of widespread taxa using generalized dissimilarity models and a zeta diversity framework. We also construct ensemble distribution models to test if palaeoclimates differentially influence the current distribution of range‐restricted versus widespread taxa. Results: Generalized dissimilarity models suggest that palaeoclimatic variation is associated with richness differences among small‐range species and genera; specifically, most occur in areas with little temporal climatic variation. Turnover among more widespread taxa, in contrast, is more strongly related to broad modern and palaeoclimatic temperature gradients. Ensemble distribution models also suggest that palaeoclimatic variation contributes more to the current range of genera with restricted ranges. Main conclusions: The most widespread conifers broadly follow past and current temperature gradients, leading to latitudinal sorting of genera based on their physiological adaptations. Range‐restricted species and genera, however, preferentially occur in climatically stable regions where they contribute to richness hotspots. History, rather than current climate patterns, likely exerts a disproportionate influence on global richness patterns in the group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The centre‐periphery hypothesis (CPH) states that peripheral populations exhibit lower genetic diversity, abundance and size, and higher differentiation compared to central populations, due to a decline in environmental suitability towards range margins. Here, we tested if neutral genetic diversity and functional leaf trait diversity fit the predicted patterns of the CPH. Location: Cerrado, Brazil. Taxon: Qualea grandiflora (Vochysiaceae) and Annona crassiflora (Annonaceae). Methods: Variation in eight functional leaf traits and nine or eight microsatellite loci were analysed in 37 populations (777 individuals) of Q. grandiflora and 21 populations (397 individuals) of A. crassiflora. We tested CPH using three distinct centres of species' range: geographical (centre of species' geographic occurrence), historical (centre of species' refugia) and ecological (centre of species' current suitability areas). Generalised linear regressions were performed between genetic diversity and differentiation, coefficients of variation and means of leaf metamer traits of populations and their distances from each centre. Results: A decrease in allele richness was observed from central towards peripheral populations for ecological (both species) and geographical centres (Q. grandiflora). Overall, the results for both species pointed to a decrease in metamer vigour towards marginal populations, pattern consistent with a decrease in environmental suitability towards periphery as predicted by CPH. Besides geographical and ecological centres, leaf traits fitted CPH considering historical centre. Main Conclusions: Results for leaf traits and genetic diversity of two phylogenetically distant species indicate the consistency of the CPH for Cerrado species. Our results highlight the importance of considering distinct centres and a great number of populations along species' range to better determinate the processes underlying the distribution of genetic diversity and functional traits. The low genetic diversity and metamer vigour in marginal populations can explain the Cerrado endemism of studied species and suggest that the ongoing climatic changes can be critical for their survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Species respond to environmental conditions and so reliable assessments of climate suitability are important for predicting how climate change could alter their distributions. Long‐term average climate data are often used to evaluate the climate suitability of an area, but in these aggregated climate datasets, inter‐annual variability is lost. Due to non‐linearity in species' biological responses to climate, estimates of long‐term climate suitability from average climate data may be biased and so differ from estimates derived from the average annual suitability over the same period (average response). We investigate the extent to which such differences manifest in a regional assessment of climate suitability for 255 plant species across two 17‐year time periods. Location: Cornwall in South‐West England provides a case study. Taxon: Plantae. Methods: We run a simple mechanistic climate suitability model and derive quantitative estimates of climate suitability for 1984–2000 and 2001–2017. For each period, we run the model using climate data representing average monthly values for that period. We then run the model for each year using monthly climate data for that year and average the annual suitability scores across each period (average response). We compare estimates of climate suitability from these two approaches. Results: Average climate data gave higher estimates of suitability than the average response, suggesting bias against years of poor suitability in temporally aggregated climate datasets. Differences between suitability estimates were larger in areas of high climate variability and correlated with species' environmental requirements, being larger for species with small thermal niches and narrow ranges of precipitation tolerance. Main Conclusions: Incorporating inter‐annual variability into climate suitability assessments or understanding the extent to which average climate data might obscure this variance will be important to predict reliably the impacts of climate change on species distributions and should be considered when using mechanistic species distribution models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: In the face of global change, understanding causes of range limits are one of the most pressing needs in biogeography and ecology. A prevailing hypothesis is that abiotic stress forms cold (upper latitude/altitude) limits, whereas biotic interactions create warm (lower) limits. A new framework – Interactive Range‐Limit Theory (iRLT) – asserts that positive biotic factors such as food availability can ameliorate abiotic stress along cold edges, whereas abiotic stress can have a positive effect and mediate biotic interactions (e.g., competition) along warm limits. Location: Northeastern United States Taxon: Carnivora Methods: We evaluated two hypotheses of iRLT using occupancy and structural equation modeling (SEM) frameworks based on data collected over a 6‐year period (2014–2019) of six carnivore species across a broad latitudinal (42.8–45.3°N) and altitudinal (3–1451 m) gradient. Results: We found that snow directly limits populations, but prey or habitat availability can influence range dynamics along cold edges. For example, bobcats (Lynx rufus) and coyotes (Canis latrans) were limited by deep snow and long winters, but the availability of prey had a strong positive effect. Conversely, snow had a strong positive effect on the warm limits of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), countering the negative effect of competition with the phylogenetically similar bobcat and with coyotes, highlighting how climate mediates competition between species. Main conclusions: We used an integrated dataset that included competitors and prey species collected at the same spatial and temporal scale. As such, this design, along with a causal modeling framework (SEM), allowed us to evaluate community‐wide hypotheses at macroecological scales and identify coarse‐scale drivers of species' range limits. Our study supports iRLT and underscores the need to consider direct and indirect mechanisms for studying range dynamics and species' responses to global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Palaeoecological data provide an essential long‐term perspective of ecological change and its drivers in oceanic islands. However, analysing the effects of multi‐scalar and potentially co‐occurring disturbances is particularly challenging in dry islands. Here, we aim to identify the ecological consequences of the integrated impacts of a regional drying trend, volcanic eruptions and human mass migrations in a spatially constrained environment—a small, dry oceanic island in Macaronesia. Location: Brava Island, Republic of Cabo Verde. Taxa: Terrestrial vegetation and fungi. Methods: We use palaeoecological analyses applied to a caldera soil profile that dates back to 9700 cal yr BP (calibrated years before the present). Analyses include pollen (vegetation history), non‐pollen palynomorphs (changes in fern and fungal communities), grain‐size distribution, loss‐on‐ignition and geochemistry (sedimentology and erosion regimes), microscopic tephra shards (volcanic ash deposition) and charcoal (fire regime). Results: A regional drying trend after c. 4000 cal yr BP caused increased erosion but had limited immediate impacts on highland grassland vegetation. The expansion of fern‐rich woody scrubland was contemporaneous with significant deposition of volcanic ash and erosion between 1800 and 650 cal yr BP. About 300 cal yr BP, exogenous plants expanded, grazing and fires increased, and there was a decrease of native vegetation cover. Main conclusions: Throughout the Holocene, highland vegetation in Brava was characterized by the presence of open landscapes dominated by herbaceous species (e.g. Poaceae, Forsskaolea), with some presence of woody native taxa (e.g. Ficus, Dodonaea). A regional drying trend was a driver of erosion since the Mid Holocene but did not have an immediate influence on highland vegetation. Tephra deposition is a possible driver of vegetation change. Inter‐island mass migration after volcanic events in Fogo Island c. 1680 CE potentially triggered land use change and intensification, causing a reduction of native vegetation in Brava. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]