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Restoration of anthropogenically altered habitats has often focused on management for umbrella species—vulnerable species whose conservation is thought to benefit co‐occurring species. Woody plant encroachment is a form of habitat alteration occurring in grasslands and shrublands around the globe, driven by anthropogenic shifts in disturbance regimes. Conifer encroachment is a pervasive threat to historically widespread sagebrush communities, as trees outcompete sagebrush and can negatively affect sagebrush‐obligate animal species. Degradation and loss of sagebrush plant communities in western North America have been associated with drastic declines in wildlife populations. The imperilled Greater Sage‐Grouse is assumed to be an umbrella species for the sagebrush community, so habitat restoration, including removal of encroaching conifers, is commonly targeted towards sage‐grouse. How this conservation action affects the demography of species other than sage‐grouse is largely unknown.We quantified the demographic effects of landscape‐level restoration of sagebrush communities through conifer removal on an assemblage of sagebrush‐obligate, shrubland generalist and woodland‐associated songbirds. We compared songbird density and reproduction between adjacent restored and uncut conifer‐encroached sagebrush plots in southwest Montana. We found and monitored nests to record nest fate and number of offspring produced.We found demographic benefits for sagebrush‐obligate species in restored areas. Sage Thrashers colonized restored areas. Brewer's Sparrow density was 39% higher and nest success was 63% higher in removal treatments, resulting in 119% higher fledgling production compared with uncut areas. The density of Vesper Sparrows, a shrubland generalist, was 308% higher and fledgling production was 660% higher in restored areas.Another shrubland generalist, the White‐crowned Sparrow, experienced 55% lower density and 37% lower fledgling production in conifer removal areas. Two woodland‐associated species, Chipping Sparrows and Dark‐eyed Juncos, were nearly extirpated following conifer removal. A third woodland associate, the Green‐tailed Towhee, experienced 57% lower density and 69% lower fledgling production in removal than non‐removal areas.Synthesis and applications. Our study demonstrates the benefits of conifer removal for sagebrush‐obligate species, while highlighting species that may be sensitive. Umbrella species management can benefit co‐occurring species with similar habitat associations, but demographic analyses for all impacted species are essential for effective conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation policy for the high mountains of Asia increasingly recognises the need to encompass large multi‐use landscapes beyond the protected area network. Due to limited long‐term research in this region, our understanding of even fundamental processes, such as factors regulating large mammal populations is poor.Understanding the factors that regulate animal populations, especially those generating cyclicity, is a long‐standing problem in ecology. Long‐term research across multiple taxa (mainly from Europe and North America) has focussed on the relative roles of food and predation in generating cyclicity in population dynamics. It remains unclear how trophic interactions that are influenced by anthropogenic stressors can affect population dynamics in human‐modified landscapes.We present a 10‐year study to compare the effects of livestock grazing on density‐dependent dynamics in two populations of bharal, Pseudois nayaur, in the Himalayas. We combine this with a mechanistic understanding of whether density dependence in these two sites acts predominantly by affecting adult survival or recruitment. We compared and quantified density dependence in the bharal population by fitting Bayesian Gompertz state‐space models.We found evidence for negative density dependence which indicates possible cyclic dynamics in the bharal population of the site (Tabo) with low livestock density. The population dynamics of this site were driven by recruited offspring—with a 2‐year density‐dependent lag effect—rather than adult survival. In the site with high livestock density (Kibber), this density dependence was not detected. We postulate the potential role of excessive grazing by livestock in affecting offspring recruitment, thereby affecting the bharal population in Kibber.Synthesis and applications: Our results suggest that conservation action to facilitate wild herbivore population recovery, such as the development of protected areas and village reserves, needs to account for density‐dependent regulation. Sites with trophy hunting require continuous monitoring to understand the effects of density dependence so that appropriate hunting quotas can be formulated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenically driven environmental changes over recent centuries have led to severe declines of wildlife populations. Better tools are needed to assess the magnitude and consequences of these declines. Anecdotal evidence suggests European bat populations have suffered substantial declines in the past centuries. However, there is little empirical evidence of these declines that can be used to put more recent population trends into historic context.This study is a collaboration between academics and conservation practitioners to develop molecular approaches capable of providing evidence of historic population changes that can inform conservation status assessments and management. We generated a genomic dataset of 46,872 SNPs for the Western barbastelle, Barbastella barbastellus, a regionally Vulnerable bat species, including colonies from across the species' British and Iberian ranges. We used a combination of landscape genetics and model‐based inference of demographic history to identify both evidence of population size changes and possible drivers of these changes.Levels of genetic diversity increased and inbreeding decreased with increasing broadleaf woodland cover around the colony. Genetic connectivity was impeded by artificial lights and facilitated by rivers and broadleaf woodland cover.The demographic history analysis showed that both the northern and southern British barbastelle populations have declined by 99% over the past 330–548 years. These declines may be linked to the loss of large oak trees and native woodlands due to shipbuilding during the early colonial period.Synthesis and applications. Genomic approaches can provide a better understanding of the conservation status of threatened species, within historic and contemporary contexts, and inform their conservation management. Our findings of will directly influence the definition of the Favourable Conservation Status of the barbastelle, in turn influencing considerations of the conservation of the species in development plans. Knowledge gained will also help set species recovery targets. Policymakers are interested in using our approach for other species. This study shows how we can bridge the implementation gap between genomic research and direct conservation applications. There is an urgent need to carry out such collaborative studies for other priority species to enable informed species recovery interventions via policy mechanisms and project delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildlife populations may be the subject of management interventions for disease control that can have unintended, counterproductive effects. Social structure exerts a strong influence over infectious disease transmission in addition to other characteristics of populations such as size and density that are the primary target for disease control. Social network approaches have been widely used to understand disease transmission in wildlife but rarely in the context of perturbations, such as culling, despite the likely impacts of such disturbance on social structure and disease dynamics.Here we present a 'removal' study of a free‐living population of resident Canada geese Branta canadensis, a highly social species that is frequently managed by culling and can carry pathogens relevant to human and domestic animal health. We quantified social network structure and spatial behaviour before and after controlled culling of individuals during the summer moult.Culling did not substantially increase individual social connectivity. Individuals that moulted at cull sites or were formerly strongly associated with removed birds were more likely to strengthen and maintain any surviving existing associations while also forming new associations. However, the establishment of new associations was largely compensatory (with only small increases in the number and strength of connections) and occurred locally.Synthesis and applications: Geese that survived the cull responded by strengthening existing social relationships and forming new, compensatory relationships with birds local to them in the network. In the short term, such compensatory adjustments to patterns of association in response to culling could facilitate pathogen transmission. But in the longer term, controlled culling of geese is unlikely to strongly influence pathogen spread and may even slow transmission into new social clusters by reducing wider mixing. When managing wildlife for disease control, in addition to changes in social network structure the prevalence of infection at the time of the cull and the mode of transmission (e.g. direct vs. environmental) will also be critical determinants of disease transmission risk in perturbed populations of geese and other wild animals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

African wildlife populations are declining at an alarming rate. To stop further population declines and restore ecosystems, more areas for wildlife are needed. Community‐based conservation with wildlife‐livestock coexistence in the vast rangelands of Africa presents a major opportunity. However, the efficacy of wildlife conservation in mixed land‐use areas remains an outstanding question. To assess the ecological outcomes of land‐sharing between regulated livestock herds and wildlife populations in African savannas, we test how rotational cattle grazing affects spatiotemporal dynamics of 15 large herbivore species in the Maasai Mara, Kenya.First, we tested how wild herbivore distributions across the Greater Mara Ecosystem (the Mara, ~2600 km2) are related to cattle density and environmental variables using 584,561 observations of wild herbivores (ecosystem scale). In a second analysis, we tested how rotational cattle grazing affects wild herbivore distributions in a 300 km2 subsection of the Mara using 30,583 observations (landscape scale). Finally, we tested how functional traits of wild herbivores affect species‐level spatiotemporal responses to cattle grazing.At the ecosystem scale, the presence of five wild herbivore species was positively correlated with cattle density, while cattle effects on wild herbivore abundances were species‐dependent with both increases and decreases. At the landscape scale, rotational cattle grazing strongly impacted the spatiotemporal habitat selection of wild herbivores, resulting in distinct lag periods with which different species are attracted to areas previously grazed by cattle. These lag periods were linked to functional traits, with body mass and herd size explaining 35% of the interspecific differences. Small to medium‐sized herbivores with large herds select areas recently grazed by cattle, whereas large species with large herd sizes and small species with small herd sizes avoid recently grazed areas.Synthesis and applications: Our results revealed that the effect of cattle on wild herbivores varies considerably among species, suggesting that cattle‐wildlife interactions range from facilitation to competition. To maintain species that strongly avoid cattle, designated livestock‐free zones remain essential, also in rotational grazing systems. Rotational grazing systems with regulated livestock densities present an important opportunity to better manage wildlife‐livestock coexistence and thus improve wildlife conservation in African rangelands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat conversion to farmland has increased human‐wildlife interactions, which often lead to conflict, injury or death for people and animals. Understanding the behavioural and landscape drivers of human‐wildlife conflict is critical for managing wildlife populations. Staging behaviour prior to crop incursions has been described across multiple taxa and offers potential utility in managing conflict, but few quantitative assessments of staging have been undertaken. Animal movement data can provide valuable, fine‐scale information on such behaviour with opportunities for application to real‐time management for conflict prediction.We developed an approach to assess the efficacy of six widely used metrics of animal movement to identify staging behaviour prior to agricultural incursions. We applied this approach to GPS data from 55 African elephants in the Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem and found tortuosity and HMM‐derived behavioural states to be the most effective for identifying staging events. We then assessed temporal patterns of defined staging at daily and seasonal scales and explored environmental and anthropogenic drivers of staging from spatial generalized logistic mixed models. Finally, we tested the viability of combining movement and simple spatial metrics to predict crop incursions based on GPS data.Our approach identified staging behaviour that appeared to be driven largely by human activity and diurnal availability of protective cover from forest, riverine vegetation, and topography. Staging also varied substantially by season. Tortuosity and behavioural state metrics identified different staging strategies with distinct spatial distributions and anthropogenic drivers, and appeared to be linked to the juxtaposition between protected and cultivated lands. Tortuosity‐based staging combined with distance‐to‐agriculture produced promising results for pre‐event prediction of crop incursion.Synthesis and applications. Our study found staging by elephants prior to crop use could be identified from GPS tracking data, indicating that a better understanding of movement behaviour can inform targeted and proactive human‐wildlife conflict management and inform spatial planning efforts. Our approach is extendable to other conflict‐prone species to assess pre‐conflict behaviours and space use and demonstrates some of the challenges and advantages of using animal behaviour to assess temporal and spatial heterogeneity in human‐wildlife conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Informed conservation and management of wildlife require sufficient monitoring to understand population dynamics and to direct conservation actions. Because resources available for monitoring are limited, conservation practitioners must strive to make monitoring as cost‐effective as possible.Our focus was on assessing the value of monitoring to the adaptive harvest management (AHM) programme for pink‐footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus. We conducted a retrospective analysis to assess the costs and benefits of a capture–mark–resight (CMR) programme, a productivity survey and biannual population censuses. Using all available data, we fit an integrated population model (IPM) and assumed that inference derived from it represented the benchmark against which reduced monitoring was to be judged. We then fit IPMs to reduced sets of monitoring data and compared their estimates of demographic parameters and expected management performance against the benchmark IPM.Costs and the precision and accuracy of key demographic parameters decreased with the elimination of monitoring data. Eliminating the CMR programme, while maintaining other monitoring instruments, resulted in the greatest cost savings, usually with small effects on inferential reliability. Productivity surveys were also expensive and some reduction in survey effort may be warranted. The biannual censuses were inexpensive and generally increased inferential reliability.The expected performance of AHM strategies was surprisingly robust to a loss of monitoring data. We attribute this result to explicit consideration of parametric uncertainty in harvest‐strategy optimization and the fact that a broad range of population sizes is acceptable to stakeholders.Synthesis and applications. Our study suggests that existing or potential monitoring instruments for wildlife populations should be scrutinized as to their cost‐effectiveness for improving biological inference and management performance. Using Svalbard pink‐footed geese as a case study, we show that the loss of some existing monitoring instruments may not be as adverse as commonly assumed if data are jointly analysed in an IPM. Finally, regardless of the monitoring data available, we suggest that conservation strategies that explicitly account for uncertainty in demography are more likely to be successful than those that do not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some animal populations are rapidly increasing in numbers and expanding their ranges, leading to intensified human–wildlife conflicts. A wide range of tools has been developed to repel animals from areas where they are suspected to cause damage. For waterfowl, direct comparisons of multiple repelling methods have so far focused only on species´ presence, total numbers, cost effectiveness or subsequent damage assessments, but not on individual behaviour.Here, we investigated the individual responses of free‐flying geese to three repelling methods using high‐resolution tracking data. In an experimental setup, tracked individuals were repelled by human approach, gunshot sound or handheld lasers.We found that repelling success and return time to the field where the repelling took place increased when individuals were repelled multiple times. Travel distances after the repelling events were longer after human approach and gunshot sound compared to the handheld laser treatments. In spring, the probability to return to the same field was higher after repelling with handheld lasers, but no difference between treatments was evident in autumn. We observed no increase in the probability to visit accommodation fields, where geese were allowed to forage and were not repelled, after the repelling events.Synthesis and applications. We found no strong differences between the three methods regarding the repelling effectiveness and the resulting behaviour of the tracked geese. However, the higher return rates of individuals after repelling with handheld lasers in spring suggest that this method might be less effective in situations with bright sunlight or very large aggregations of geese. Apart from these limitations, we can recommend handheld lasers for repelling as they might reduce energetic losses for the geese and disturbance of non‐target wildlife. Since repelling by gunshot sound and handheld lasers was twice as fast as repelling by human approach, those methods will reduce working hours by 50% and therefore be more cost‐effective in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rangelands of the United States provide ecosystem services that benefit society and rural economies. Native tree encroachment is often overlooked as a primary threat to rangelands due to the slow pace of tree cover expansion and the positive public perception of trees. Still, tree encroachment fragments these landscapes and reduces herbaceous production, thereby threatening habitat quality for grassland wildlife and the economic sustainability of animal agriculture.Recent innovations in satellite remote sensing permit the tracking of tree encroachment and the corresponding impact on herbaceous production. We analysed tree cover change and herbaceous production across the western United States from 1990 to 2019.We show that tree encroachment is widespread in US rangelands; absolute tree cover has increased by 50% (77,323 km2) over 30 years, with more than 25% (684,852 km2) of US rangeland area experiencing tree cover expansion. Since 1990, 302 ± 30 Tg of herbaceous biomass have been lost. Accounting for variability in livestock biomass utilization and forage value reveals that this lost production is valued at between $4.1–$5.6 billion US dollars.Synthesis and applications. The magnitude of impact of tree encroachment on rangeland loss is similar to conversion to cropland, another well‐known and primary mechanism of rangeland loss in the US Prioritizing conservation efforts to prevent tree encroachment can bolster ecosystem and economic sustainability, particularly among privately‐owned lands threatened by land‐use conversion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a need to assess the sustainability of wild bird harvest in the United Kingdom (UK), and more widely, across Europe. Yet, data on populations and harvest sizes are limited.We used a demographic invariant method (DIM) to estimate potential excess growth (PEG) for populations of UK wintering waterbirds and calculated a sustainable harvest index (SHI) for each. We compared this with population trends and conservation classifications (e.g. Birds of Conservation Concern [BoCC]) to assess the sustainability of harvests and the utility of these classifications.Our approach found evidence for potential overharvest of mallard Anas platyrhynchos, Eurasian teal Anas crecca, gadwall Mareca strepera, Canada geese Branta canadensis, greylag geese Anser anser and woodcock Scolopax rusticola. Whether DIM methods predict overharvest is highly dependent on estimates of maximum population growth rates inferring PEG. We found estimates of maximum population growth to be variable across a range of different methods.We found no relationship between SHI and short‐term wintering trends or conservation classification under the UK's BoCC framework. There was however a positive relationship between SHI and long‐term wintering trends.Policy implications. Our results suggest that UK‐based harvest is unlikely to be a major determinant of population trends for the majority of UK overwintering waterbirds, but harvest rates for some species may exceed that required to maintain stationary population growth. The lack of a relationship between conservation classifications and SHI strongly suggests that such conservation classifications are not an appropriate tool for making decisions about harvest management. Instead, our assessment provides the basis for a framework to make evidence‐based decisions on sustainable harvest levels in the face of incomplete data. There is currently no clear policy instrument in the UK to support such a framework via controls on either harvest effort or mortality of waterfowl. We believe such an instrument is urgently needed to ensure the UK can adapt to changing pressures and ensure the sustainable use of our wildlife populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migratory species are protected under international legislation; their seasonal movements across international borders may therefore present opportunities for understanding how global conservation policies translate to local‐level actions across different socio‐ecological contexts. Moreover, local‐level management of migratory species can reveal how culture and governance affects progress towards achieving global targets. Here, we investigate potential misalignment in the two‐way relationship between global‐level conservation policies (i.e. hunting bans and quotas) and local‐level norms, values and actions (i.e. legal and illegal hunting) in the context of waterfowl hunting in northern Kazakhstan as a case‐study.Northern Kazakhstan is globally important for waterfowl and a key staging area for arctic‐breeding species. Hunting is managed through licences, quotas and seasonal bans under UN‐AEWA intergovernmental agreements. To better understand the local socio‐ecological context of waterfowl hunting, we take a mixed‐methods approach using socio‐ecological surveys, informal discussions and population modelling of a focal migratory goose species to: (a) investigate motivations for hunting in relation to socio‐economic factors; (b) assess knowledge of species' protection status; and (c) predict the population size of Lesser White‐fronted Geese (LWfG; Anser erythropus; IUCN Vulnerable) under different scenarios of survival rates and hunting offtake, to understand how goose population demographics interact with the local socio‐ecological context.Model results showed no evidence that waterfowl hunting is motivated by financial gain; social and cultural importance were stronger factors. The majority of hunters are knowledgeable about species' protection status; however, 11% did not know LWfG are protected, highlighting a key area for increased stakeholder engagement.Simulations of LWfG population growth over a 20‐year period showed LWfG are highly vulnerable to hunting pressure even when survival rates are high. This potential impact of hunting highlights the need for effective regulation along the entire flyway; our survey results show that hunters were generally compliant with newly introduced hunting regulations, showing that effective regulation is possible on a local level.Synthesis and applications. Here, we investigate how global conservation policy and local norms interact to affect the management of a threatened migratory species, which is particularly important for the protection and sustainable management of wildlife that crosses international borders where local contexts may differ. Our study highlights that to be effective and sustainable in the long‐term, global conservation policies must fully integrate local socio‐economic, cultural, governance and environmental contexts, to ensure interventions are equitable across entire species' ranges. This approach is relevant and adaptable for different contexts involving the conservation of wide‐ranging and migratory species, including the 255 migratory waterfowl covered by UN‐AEWA (United Nations Agreement on the Conservation of African‐Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Controlling persistent infectious disease in wildlife populations is an ongoing challenge for wildlife managers and conservationists worldwide, and chronic diseases in particular remain a pernicious problem.Here, we develop a dynamic pathogen transmission model capturing key features of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae infection, a major cause of population declines in North American bighorn sheep Ovis canadensis. We explore the effects of model assumptions and parameter values on disease dynamics, including density‐ versus frequency‐dependent transmission, the inclusion of a carrier class versus a longer infectious period, host survival rates, disease‐induced mortality and recovery rates and the epidemic growth rate. Along the way, we estimate the basic reproductive ratio, R0, for M. ovipneumoniae in bighorn sheep to fall between approximately 1.36 and 1.74.We apply the model to compare efficacies across a suite of management actions following an epidemic, including test‐and‐remove, depopulation‐and‐reintroduction, range expansion, herd augmentation and density reduction.Our results suggest that test‐and‐remove, depopulation‐and‐reintroduction and range expansion could help persistently infected bighorn sheep herds recovery following an epidemic. By contrast, augmentation could lead to worse outcomes than those expected in the absence of management. Other management actions that improve host survival or reduce disease‐induced mortality are also likely to improve population size and persistence of chronically infected herds.Synthesis and applications. Dynamic transmission models like the one employed here offer a structured, logical approach for exploring hypotheses, planning field experiments and designing adaptive management. We find that management strategies that removed infected animals or isolated them within a structured metapopulation were most successful at facilitating herd recovery from a low‐prevalence, chronic pathogen. Ideally, models like ours should operate iteratively with field experiments to triangulate on better approaches for managing wildlife diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Translocations are essential for re‐establishing wildlife populations. As they sometimes fail, it is critical to assess factors that influence their success pre‐translocation.Socioecological suitability models (SESMs) integrate social acceptance and ecological suitability to enable identification of areas where wildlife populations will expand, which makes it likely that SESMs will also be useful for predicting translocation success.To inform site selection for potential elk Cervus canadensis reintroduction to north‐eastern Minnesota, United States, we developed broadscale maps of social acceptance from surveys of local residents and landowners, animal use equivalence (AUE) from forage measured in the field and empirical conflict risk from geospatial data. Resulting SESMs integrated social acceptance favourability scores, AUE and conflict risk, and weighted SESMs showed the relative influences of acceptance and conflict.Social acceptance was positive for local residents and landowners (mean ≥ 5.4; scale of 1–7). AUE (scaled to an elk home range) ranged between 1 and 9 elk/16 km2 during winter, and from 14 to 83 elk/16 km2 during summer. Human–elk conflict risk was low (mean ≤ 0.10; scaled 0–1), increasing from north to south. Geographical distributions differed for social acceptance, AUE and conflict risk, and weighted SESMs revealed unsuitable areas that were otherwise obscured.Synthesis and applications. Integrating human–wildlife conflict risk into SESMs shows where social acceptance of translocated species is likely to erode, even where viewed favourably pre‐translocation, to inform translocation planning by highlighting interactions between key factors. Such integrated models supplement existing reintroduction biology frameworks by supporting decision‐making and knowledge development. In north‐eastern Minnesota, natural resource managers who are considering elk reintroductions are using SESMs reported here to identify where human–elk conflict is unlikely to result in an isolated elk population and where addressing concerns for area residents about conflict risk is essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Understanding the role of different species in the transmission of multi-host pathogens, such as rabies virus, is vital for effective control strategies. Across most of sub-Saharan Africa domestic dogs Canis familiaris are considered the reservoir for rabies, but the role of wildlife has been long debated. Here we explore the multi-host transmission dynamics of rabies across south-east Tanzania. 2. Between January 2011 and July 2019, data on probable rabies cases were collected in the regions of Lindi and Mtwara. Hospital records of animal-bite patients presenting to healthcare facilities were used as sentinels for animal contact tracing. The timing, location and species of probable rabid animals were used to reconstruct transmission trees to infer who infected whom and the relative frequencies of within- and between-species transmission. 3. During the study, 688 probable human rabies exposures were identified, resulting in 47 deaths. Of these exposures, 389 were from domestic dogs (56.5%) and 262 from jackals (38.1%). Over the same period, 549 probable animal rabies cases were traced: 303 in domestic dogs (55.2%) and 221 in jackals (40.3%), with the remainder in domestic cats and other wildlife species. 4. Although dog-to-dog transmission was most commonly inferred (40.5% of transmission events), a third of inferred events involved wildlife-to-wildlife transmission (32.6%), and evidence suggested some sustained transmission chains within jackal populations. 5. A steady decline in probable rabies cases in both humans and animals coincided with the implementation of widespread domestic dog vaccination during the first 6 years of the study. Following the lapse of this program, dog rabies cases began to increase in one of the northernmost districts. 6. Synthesis and applications. In south- east Tanzania, despite a relatively high incidence of rabies in wildlife and evidence of wildlife- to- wildlife transmission, domestic dogs remain essential to the reservoir of infection. Continued dog vaccination alongside improved surveillance would allow a fuller understanding of the role of wildlife in maintaining transmission in this area. Nonetheless, dog vaccination clearly suppressed rabies in both domestic dog and wildlife populations, reducing both public health and conservation risks and, if sustained, has potential to eliminate rabies from this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting how populations may respond to climate change and anthropogenic pressures requires detailed knowledge of demographic traits, such as survival and reproduction. However, the availability of these data varies greatly across space and taxa. Therefore, it is common practice to conduct population assessments by filling in missing values from surrogate species or other populations of the same species. Using these independent surrogate values concurrently with observed data neglects the life‐history trade‐offs that connect the different aspects of a population's demography. Consequently, this approach introduces biases that could ultimately lead to erroneous management decisions.We use a Bayesian hierarchical framework to combine fragmented multi‐population data with established life‐history theory and reconstruct population‐specific demographic data across a substantial part of a species breeding range. We apply our analysis to a long‐lived colonial species, the black‐legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, that is classified as globally Vulnerable and is highly threatened by increasing anthropogenic pressures, including offshore renewable energy development. We then use a projection analysis to examine how the reconstructed demographic parameters may improve population assessments, compared to models that combine observed data with independent surrogate values.Demographic parameters reconstructed using a hierarchical framework can be utilised in a range of population modelling approaches. They can also be used as reference estimates to assess whether independent surrogate values are likely to over or underestimate missing demographic parameters. We show that surrogate values from independent sources are often used to fill in missing parameters that have large potential demographic impact, and that resulting biases are driven in unpredictable directions thus precluding assessments from being consistently precautionary.Synthesis and applications. Our study dramatically increases the spatial coverage of population‐specific demographic data for black‐legged kittiwakes. The reconstructed demographic parameters presented can also be used immediately to reduce uncertainty in the consenting process for offshore wind development in the United Kingdom and Ireland. More broadly, we show that the reconstruction approach used here provides a new avenue for improving evidence‐based management and policy action for animal and plant populations with fragmented and error prone demographic data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conserving and managing large portions of land to connect wildlife reserves is an increasingly used strategy to maintain and restore connectivity among wildlife populations. Boundaries of such conservation areas are often determined based on expert opinion and socio‐political constraints, yet the extent to which they match species' movement corridors is rarely examined. This is mainly due to a lack of data, particularly on wide‐ranging movement behaviour such as dispersal. Nevertheless, empirically assessing the adequacy of protected areas is key for the implementation of targeted management actions and efficient use of limited conservation funds.Between 2011 and 2019, we collected high‐resolution GPS data on 16 dispersing African wild dog Lycaon pictus coalitions from a free‐ranging population in the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA‐TFCA). Spanning five countries and 520,000 km2, the KAZA‐TFCA is the world's largest transboundary conservation area and a prime example for international conservation efforts. We used integrated step selection analysis to estimate habitat selection of dispersers and to create a permeability surface for the KAZA‐TFCA. We compared landscape permeability across different regions within the KAZA‐TFCA as well as outside its boundaries. Lastly, we calculated least‐cost paths and corridors to verify that major movement routes were adequately encompassed within the KAZA‐TFCA.Permeability within the boundaries of the KAZA‐TFCA was more than double compared to areas outside it. Furthermore, we observed a fivefold permeability difference among the five KAZA‐TFCA countries. We also showed that major movement corridors of wild dogs ran within the KAZA‐TFCA, although some minor routes remained formally unprotected.Differences in permeability were mainly related to different degrees of human activities across regions, and to the presence or absence of rivers, swamps and open water. The relationship between permeability and other landscape features was less pronounced.Synthesis and applications. In this study, we showed how pertinent dispersal data of a highly mobile species can be used to empirically evaluate the adequacy of already existing or planned protected areas. Furthermore, we observed regional differences in landscape permeability that highlight the need for a coordinated effort towards maintaining or restoring connectivity, especially where transboundary dispersal occurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire drives animal population dynamics across many ecosystems. Yet, we still lack an understanding of how most species recover from fire and the effects of fire severity and patchiness on recovery processes. This information is crucial for fire‐mediated biodiversity conservation, particularly as fire regimes change globally.We conducted an experiment to test whether post‐fire recovery is driven by in situ survival or recolonisation, and to determine whether this varies with fires of increasing percentage area burnt (burn cover) and severity. We used the pale field rat Rattus tunneyi as a model, because it represents the extinction process for a suite of mammal species suffering population collapse across Australia's northern savannas. Our treatments spanned a gradient from patchy, low severity fires (simulating early dry season management burns) to thorough, high severity fires (simulating wildfires). We performed capture–mark–recapture, vegetation and aerial surveys before, 6 weeks after and 1 year after fire.Six weeks after fire, pale field rats were only captured in unburnt patches of vegetation, and capture rates were proportional to the amount of unburnt habitat. One year later, both vegetation and pale field rat populations recovered across all sites. However, population recovery after low severity fires was likely achieved through in situ survival and reproduction in unburnt micro‐refuges, compared to recolonisation driving recovery after high severity fires.Synthesis and applications. Pale field rat persistence is strongly dependent on the retention of unburnt habitat patches within fire‐affected areas. Management strategies that increase micro‐refugia within burnt areas may facilitate pale field rat population recovery. Globally, building recovery mechanisms into fire management will be vital for supporting the long‐term persistence of fire‐affected species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aquaculture is a promising source of fish and other aquatic organisms to ensure human food security but it comes at the price of diverse environmental impacts. Among others, these include diseases which often thrive under the conditions in aquaculture settings and can cause high economic losses. These diseases may also affect wildlife, however, the impacts of aquaculture on disease dynamics in wild species in surrounding ecosystems are poorly understood.In this Review, we provide a conceptual framework for studying the effects of aquaculture on wildlife diseases, and illustrate the different mechanisms identified with examples from the literature. In addition, we highlight further research needs and provide recommendations for management and policy.We identified five potential means by which farmed populations may alter wildlife disease dynamics: (a) farmed species may co‐introduce parasites to the new environment, which infect wild conspecifics without infecting other species (intraspecific parasite spillover); (b) these co‐introduced parasites from farmed species may infect other wild host species potentially leading to emerging diseases (interspecific parasite spillover); (c) parasites from other wild host species may infect farmed species, amplifying parasite numbers and increasing parasite infections when spilling back to wild hosts (interspecific parasite spillback); (d) farmed species may acquire parasites from wild conspecifics, increasing parasite population size and subsequently raising infection loads in the wild host population (intraspecific parasite spillback); and (e) farmed species may be neither hosts nor parasites, but affect the transmission of parasites between wild host species (transmission interference). Although these mechanisms can alter wildlife disease dynamics, we found large knowledge gaps regarding collateral disease impacts and strong biases in terms of production countries, aquaculture practices and host taxa.Synthesis and applications. The strong potential for aquaculture to affect the dynamics of diseases in wildlife populations calls for the consideration of collateral disease impacts in risk assessments and biosecurity protocols regarding aquaculture. In particular, comprehensive parasite inventories of both farmed and wild hosts as well as disease monitoring in wildlife surrounding farms will be necessary to increase our knowledge on aquaculture impacts on wildlife disease and to develop adequate prevention and mitigation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate over Asian montane rangelands is changing faster than the global average, posing serious threats to the future of the region's livestock‐based economies and cultures. Effects of climate change on rangeland vegetation likely depend on grazing by herbivores but the potential responses of vegetation to such changes in climate and grazing regimes remain unclear.We examined vegetation responses to experimentally simulated climate change (warming, drought and increased rainfall) and grazing (clipping vegetation) between 2015 and 2018 at two mountain rangeland sites: Spiti valley, in the Indian Trans‐Himalaya and Tost, in the Gobi‐Altai Mountains in Mongolia.Clipping and climate change manipulations interactively reduced vegetation cover and biomass but did not affect species richness. Treatment effects and their interactions varied between sites. In ungrazed plots, vegetation cover and biomass declined sharply in response to warming (18%–35%) and drought (20%–50%) at the two sites, and, surprisingly also declined slightly in response to increased rainfall (20%) at Tost. While the effects of climate treatments were largely similar in the grazed and ungrazed plots in Tost, they were larger in the ungrazed plots in Spiti. The decline in vegetation cover was driven by a decline in the cover of both forbs and grasses.In combination, grazing and warming (Tost) or drought (Spiti) had sub‐additive effects, that is, the decrease in vegetation cover in response to grazing and warming/drought was less than the sum of their independent effects but greater than the effect of either manipulation alone. Of the two, warming had a greater effect than drought at the more arid site (Tost), whereas drought had a larger effect at the more mesic site (Spiti).Synthesis and applications. Our findings show that future changes in climate, including just over 1°C of warming, could undermine the sustainability of pastoral economies and the persistence of wildlife across Asian montane rangelands. Furthermore, grazing by herbivores will play an important role in mediating rangeland responses to climate change; thus, pasture management in concert with local pastoralists will be crucial in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on rangelands, pastoral livelihoods and wildlife populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many long‐term wildlife population monitoring programmes rely on citizen scientists for data collection. This can offer several benefits over traditional monitoring practices as it is a cost‐effective, large‐scale approach capable of providing long time series data and raising public environmental awareness. Whilst there is a debate about the quality of citizen science data, a standardised sampling design can allow citizen science data to be of a similar quality to those collected by professionals. However, many programmes use subjective, opportunistic selection of monitoring sites and this introduces several types of bias, which are not well understood.Using bat roost counts as a case study, we took a 'virtual ecologist' approach to simulate the effect of opportunistic site selection and uneven observer retention on our ability to accurately detect abundance trends. We simulated populations with different levels of temporal variability and site fidelity.Our simulations reveal that opportunistic site selection and low observer retention can result in biased trends and that these biases are magnified when monitored populations exhibit high levels of inter‐annual variation and low site fidelity. These results show that the synergistic effects of observer behaviour, site selection, and population dynamics lead to biased abundance trends in monitoring programmes.This study highlights the value of engaging and retaining citizen science observers, a standardised sampling design, and the collection of metadata. We conclude that monitoring programmes need to be aware of their focal species' temporal variability and site fidelity to adequately assess the potential bias caused by opportunistic site selection and low observer retention.Synthesis and applications. Accurate data on population changes are key for conservation success. Therefore, it is important that citizen science monitoring programmes assess and potentially quantify the biases present in their data. We demonstrate the applicability of an established simulation framework to assess the effect of biases on our ability to correctly detect abundance trends. Our findings highlight that monitoring programmes need to be aware of their study species' temporal variability and site fidelity to assess and account for the effects of biased site selection and observer retention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban expansion poses a major threat to wildlife populations. Biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes could deliver benefits for both wildlife and people, by incorporating conservation and ecosystem services objectives. Well‐designed urban developments could also soften the ecological impacts of urbanization. However, delivering urban landscapes that integrate biodiversity requirements effectively remains challenging.Ecological models, designed to predict wildlife population responses to alternative urban designs, could prove effective in supporting the creation of biodiversity‐friendly urban landscapes. Here, we combine national‐scale bird abundance data with high resolution, spatially explicit habitat data to characterize relationships between bird densities and urban landscape form in Britain. From these analyses and cross validation, we evaluate the potential for well‐parameterized, species‐specific models to be used to predict bird densities in novel or modified urban areas.Our analyses indicate that responses of bird abundance to urban habitat are species‐specific and complex, with few variables consistently affecting a large proportion of species. However, contiguous areas of greenspace within urban sites are preferential for accommodating breeding birds, compared to a more fragmented arrangement of multiple, small greenspace patches. In combination, the bird‐habitat relationships identified could successfully predict observed variation in abundance for most bird species considered.Further evaluation of habitat descriptor variables, spatial scales of species' habitat use and analytical modelling approaches may be needed to improve the predictive ability of bird‐habitat models for certain species, particularly waterbirds and those observed less frequently in urban areas.Synthesis and applications. We modelled breeding bird abundance in built‐up areas with respect to the characteristics and contexts of urban environments. While most variables were important for multiple species, responses overall were species‐specific, so simple assemblage metrics, like diversity, will not describe the variation in bird communities well. However, the results illustrate the potential of an evidence‐based, spatially explicit evaluation of urban development impacts on biodiversity, by predicting the consequences for bird numbers. Subject to verification of predictive ability, practitioners can apply the models to compare, for example, land‐sparing and sharing within developments, or to quantify the biodiversity requirements for effective offsetting. This would be facilitated by incorporation into an online tool allowing user‐determined input scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In conservation decision‐making, it is important to have information not only on the likely effectiveness of conservation actions, but also on the corresponding costs. Reintroduction of wildlife is a commonly applied 'last resort' conservation measure. However, a quantitative approach to predict the costs of reintroduction for sustaining a wildlife population under the influence of time‐varying anthropogenic stress is lacking.Here, we fill this gap by quantifying the costs of reintroduction as a function of exposure to an environmental stressor and the size of the wildlife population to be maintained. Our approach combines quantitative stressor–response relationships for vital rates (reproduction and survival) with a wildlife demographic model to compute the impacts of the stressor on the size of the target population. Subsequently, cost estimates are obtained by quantifying the number of captive‐reared individuals needed per year in order to maintain a user‐defined population size, given the exposure to the stressor of concern. We applied our approach to calculate the reintroduction costs required to restore a minimum viable population (MVP) of peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) in California over the period 1970–1994, when the population was exposed to the toxicant dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene.Assuming a gradual yearly increase of 150% in the availability of captive‐reared young, 1,753 captive‐reared young were required to restore and maintain a MVP of 238 adults. The corresponding reintroduction costs were in total ~$3,023,000. Assuming lower reintroduction efforts (in terms of the availability of captive‐reared young), the projected reintroduction costs decreased by ~33%. However, the population then reached the minimum viable size only 9 years later, thus reflecting a trade‐off between costs and population viability.Synthesis and applications. The approach presented in this study ensures an adequate prediction of the costs of maintaining a wildlife population at a user‐defined size through reintroduction. It can be applied to any wildlife population in order to obtain the number of individuals and corresponding costs required to sustain a population under current and future influence of an anthropogenic stressor. This type of information provides important input for decision‐making necessary to conserve biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invertebrate‐derived DNA (iDNA), in combination with high throughput sequencing, has been proposed as a cost‐efficient and powerful tool to survey vertebrate species. Previous studies, however, have only provided evidence that vertebrates can be detected using iDNA, but have not taken the next step of placing these detection events within a statistical framework that allows for robust biodiversity assessments.Here, we compare concurrent iDNA and camera‐trap surveys. Leeches were repeatedly collected in close vicinity to 64 camera‐trap stations in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. We analyse iDNA‐derived mammalian detection events in a modern occupancy model that accounts for imperfect detection and compare the results with those from occupancy models parameterised with camera‐trap‐derived detection events. We also combine leech‐iDNA and camera‐trap data in a single occupancy model.We found consistent estimates of occupancy probabilities produced by our camera‐trap and leech datasets. This indicates that the metabarcoding of leech‐iDNA method provides reasonable estimates of occupancy and may be a suitable method for studying and monitoring mammal species in tropical rainforests. However, we also show that a more extensive collection of leeches would be needed to assess mammal biodiversity with a robustness similar to that of camera traps. As certain taxa were only detected in leeches, we see great potential in complementing camera‐trap studies with the iDNA approach, as long as the collection of leeches follows a robust and standardised sampling scheme.Synthesis and applications. Here, we describe an approach to analyse detection records of mammals derived from leech samples using an occupancy framework that accounts for leech‐specific factors influencing the detection probability. We further combined camera trap and leech data, which lead to increased confidence in occupancy estimates. Our approach is not restricted to the processing of leech samples, but can be used for the analysis of other invertebrate DNA and environmental DNA data. Our study is the first step to shift the application of invertebrate DNA studies from opportunistic ad‐hoc collections to the systematic surveys required for long‐term management of wildlife populations. Here, we describe an approach to analyse detection records of mammals derived from leech samples using an occupancy framework that accounts for leech‐specific factors influencing the detection probability. We further combined camera trap and leech data, which lead to increased confidence in occupancy estimates. Our approach is not restricted to the processing of leech samples, but can be used for the analysis of other invertebrate DNA and environmental DNA data. Our study is the first step to shift the application of invertebrate DNA studies from opportunistic ad‐hoc collections to the systematic surveys required for long‐term management of wildlife populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Anthropogenic structures are mainly known to have negative impacts on wildlife populations but they can be beneficial. Power lines are a main driver of bird mortality through collision or electrocution, but electricity pylons are also commonly used for nest building by some species. Birds and nests cause power outages that need to be tackled by electricity companies. However, the use of pylons by threatened species provides an opportunity for conservation purposes. In this study, we describe an empirical modelling approach to predict the circumstances under which nesting birds use electricity pylons. We focused on white storks Ciconia ciconia, a species that has been increasingly using electricity pylons for nesting across Europe. In a country‐level census in Portugal, we found a total of 1,348 white stork nests in 668 of the 8,680 very high‐tension power line pylons occurring in the distribution range of this colonial species, with spatial clustering in pylon occupation up to a distance of 30 km. The number of nests in each used pylon ranged from 1 to 21 (M ± SD = 2.2 ± 2.06). The main drivers of pylon use by nesting storks were distance to major feeding areas (rice fields, landfills and large wetlands), with more intensive use closer to these features, followed by land cover type surrounding each pylon. Pylon type and age, and stork population density in the region, had comparatively less importance. Synthesis and applications. We developed an approach to predict the use of anthropogenic structures by nesting birds that can be used both for species conservation and minimising damage to infrastructures. For power lines, applications include: (1) planning power line routes to take account of the probability of pylon use; (2) applying nesting deterrent devices (to reduce bird mortality and power outage risk) and providing nesting platforms (to promote bird use) on suitable pylons and (3) selecting adequate pylon types to promote or inhibit nesting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Female ungulates are often selectively harvested according to their reproductive status. Because ungulate population growth depends heavily on adult female survival, it is crucial to understand the effects of this selective harvest. Recent studies revealed persistent individual differences in female reproductive potential, with a positive correlation of reproductive success over consecutive years. If current reproduction is correlated with lifetime reproductive success, then selective harvest of non-lactating females should remove individuals of low reproductive potential, with lower impact on population growth than random harvest. If lifetime reproductive success has a genetic basis, selective harvest may also increase the proportion of successful females., We used an individual-based model to understand the short-term effects of harvest intensity and hunter selectivity on population dynamics, accounting for both heterogeneity in reproductive potential and orphan survival. We also explored the long-term effect of harvest as a selective pressure on female heterogeneity., Selective harvest of non-lactating females reduced survival to primiparity compared to random harvest, because of high harvest rates of pre-reproductive females. After primiparity, however, females of higher reproductive potential had higher survival under selective than random harvest. Therefore, the overall effect on population dynamics depends on a trade-off between a high harvest of pre-reproductive females and a reduced harvest of reproductive females with high reproductive potential., Female heterogeneity and the length of the pre-reproductive period affected this trade-off. Over the short term, high heterogeneity in reproductive potential of pre-reproductive females made selective harvest the most effective strategy to maintain a high population growth rate. With low heterogeneity and little effects of orphaning on juvenile mortality, however, random harvest had a lower impact on population growth than selective harvest. Over the long term, selective female harvest may increase the proportion of successful reproducers in the population., Synthesis and applications. Selective harvests of non-lactating females appear justified only if female heterogeneity in reproductive potential and/or orphan mortality are very high. Because pre-reproductive females will be subject to intense harvest, selective harvest may reduce population growth rate compared to random harvest in species with late primiparity, especially if most pre-reproductive female normally survive to primiparity. When heterogeneity in reproductive potential and orphan mortality are low, random female harvest appears preferable to selective harvest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of measures installed to mitigate wildlife road-kill depends on their placement along the road. Road-kill hotspots are frequently used to identify priority locations for mitigation measures. However, in situations where previous road mortality has reduced population size, road-kill hotspots may not indicate the best sites for mitigation., The purpose of this study was to identify circumstances in which road-kill hotspots are not appropriate indicators for the selection of the best road-kill mitigation sites. We predicted that: (i) road-kill hotspots can move in time from high-traffic road segments to low-traffic segments, due to population depression near the high-traffic segment caused by road mortality; (ii) this shift will occur earlier for more mobile species because they should interact more often with the road; (iii) this shift can occur even if the low-traffic segment runs through lower quality habitat than the high-traffic segment. To test these predictions, we simulated population size and road-kill over time for two populations, one exposed to a road segment with high traffic and the other to a road segment with low traffic., Our simulation results supported Predictions 1 and 3, while Prediction 2 was not supported., Synthesis and applications. Our results indicate that, for new roads, road-kill hotspots can be useful to indicate appropriate sites for mitigation. On older roads, road-kill hotspots may not indicate the best sites for road mitigation due to population depression caused by road mortality. Direct measures of the road impact on the population, such as per capita mortality, are better indicators of appropriate mitigation sites than road-kill hotspots. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efforts to detect and eradicate invading populations before they establish are a critical component of national biosecurity programmes. An essential element for maximizing the efficiency of these efforts is the balancing of expenditures on surveillance (e.g. trapping) versus treatment (e.g. eradication). Identifying the optimal allocation of resources towards surveillance requires an underlying model of how costs and the probability of detection fluctuate with survey intensity across various landscapes. Here, we develop a model, widely applicable across biological systems, for predicating costs associated with varying surveillance intensities across diverse road networks., We assumed that surveillance is conducted across a set of point locations. Resources needed to conduct surveillance include the fixed costs associated with surveying a point (e.g. cost of materials or labour time spent at the survey point) and variable costs that correspond to the expense of the time and distance travelled between points. We estimated travel time and distance between points as functions of surveillance intensity and road network characteristics using data from simulated least cost driving routes connecting points located on real-world road networks. Time and distance estimates were then combined with cost data from an actual gypsy moth Lymantria dispar surveillance programme in the state of Washington to predict per trap costs of surveillance across varying road network densities and surveillance intensities., Per point driving time, driving distance and total costs all decline with increasing survey point density and increasing road density. Surveillance intensity (planned point spacing) explains ˜94% of the average time driven per point and 97% of the distance driven per point - thus representing the primary explanatory variable. Incorporating road density and dead end road density explains relatively little additional variance in the model, although they improve goodness of fit., Synthesis and applications. This work predicts costs associated with surveillance of invasive species populations. We find that the cost per survey point diminishes with increasing survey point density and also depends on road network characteristics. When combined with maps for the relative risk of alien species establishment across landscapes and measures of surveillance efficacy dependent on effort, these cost predictions can increase efficiency of surveillance and eradication efforts for the gypsy moth and other invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A phylogenetic perspective of community assembly can reveal new insights into how variation within dominant species interacts with the local species pool to influence the structure of restored plant communities. Many studies have examined the effect of dominant species in structuring plant communities, but few have investigated their effect on phylogenetic diversity ( PD)., We established grassland in a post-agricultural field using two population sources (cultivars and local ecotypes) of three dominant grasses ( Sorghastrum nutans, Andropogon gerardii and Schizachyrium scoparium) with three unique pools of subordinate species that varied in PD but not taxonomic or life-form diversity. We tested the effect of the population source treatment on two metrics of community PD (net relatedness index [ NRI] and nearest taxon index [ NTI]) during the first 4 years of restoration. The NRI measures the overall pairwise phylogenetic distance between all pairs of taxa in a community. By contrast, NTI measures the pairwise distance between closely related taxa in a community., Population sources had a transitory effect on community phylogenetic structure over time. Local ecotypes decreased the abundance of closely related eudicots, monocots (low + NRI and + NTI values) and volunteer species (− NTI) more than cultivars. However, population sources did not affect ecologically conservative species (i.e. species with intermediate-to-poor ecological tolerance and a high degree of fidelity to prairie habitats). Thus, cultivars might have a positive effect on community phylogenetic diversity more than local ecotypes by decreasing the abundance of a phylogenetically diverse community of less closely related volunteer species. Differences in PD of seed mixes were maintained in the community of high-fidelity species, but did not affect PD of the unsown (volunteer) species in the assembling community., Synthesis and applications. This is the first experiment to show consequences of using different seed sources on phylogenetic diversity ( PD) in grassland restoration. Phylogenetics can reveal the effects of population sources on the abundance of volunteer species not evident through traditional analyses of species diversity. The PD of seed mixes or establishing communities, or other assessments of phylogenetic relationships, by restoration practitioners is recommended as a metric to allow consequences of the evolutionary patterns among species to be included in conservation planning. Increased accessibility of phylogenetic tools will allow the application of PD in restoration monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Large carnivore management is often contentious, particularly in jurisdictions where hunting and conservation efforts collide. Regulated hunting is a common management tool, yet relevant decisions are commonly taken in the absence of reliable population data and are driven by factors other than biological considerations. 2. We used European large carnivore (brown bear Ursus arctos, wolf Canis lupus and Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx) management to evaluate the biological plausibility of reported population estimates used in hunting decisions. We used Romania as a test case as this region is not only data-poor, but the public and private game managers are beneficiaries of revenue from hunting activities. We assessed the following: (i) how population growth rates calculated from reported abundances between 2005 and 2012 compared to published growth rates empirically derived from European and North American populations; (ii) whether biological unrealism compounded through time by testing whether reported estimates fell within the bounds of biologically plausible trajectories; and (iii) the relationship between the occurrence of biologically unrealistic estimates and financial incentives (amount of hunting). 3. For U. arctos, which generates high revenue, estimated annual population growth rates were frequently greater than maximum published growth rates (up to 1·5 for reported versus 1·136 in the literature). Reported estimates were greater than maximum simulated populations in 32% of cases, and the difference was positively correlated with hunting (rs = 0·576). 4. Population growth rates for C. lupus overshot the maximum published growth rate (1·35) less frequently, reported estimates were within the bounds of biologically plausible estimates (91% of cases), and there was a weak correlation between hunting and biologically unrealistic estimates (rs = 0·182). 5. L. lynx population growth rates derived from reported estimates were lower than minimum simulated populations (60% of cases), and there was a weak correlation between hunting and biologically unrealistic estimates (rs = 0·164). 6. Synthesis and applications. Our study suggests that comparing population estimates used by management agencies to demographic data obtained through rigorous peer-reviewed studies is a useful approach for evaluating the biological plausibility of wildlife data in data-poor systems, especially when management decisions might be influenced by non-scientific incentives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Our understanding of movement patterns in wildlife populations has played an important role in current ecological knowledge and can inform landscape conservation decisions. Direct measures of movement can be obtained using marked individuals, but this requires tracking individuals across a landscape or multiple sites. 2. We demonstrate how movements can be estimated indirectly using single-site, capture- mark-recapture (CMR) data with a multi-state open robust design with state uncertainty model (MSORD-SU). We treat residence and transience as two phenotypic states of overwintering migrants and use time- and state-dependent probabilities of site entry and persistence as indirect measures of movement. We applied the MSORD-SU to data on eight species of overwintering Neotropical birds collected in 14 countries between 2002 and 2011. In addition to entry and persistence probabilities, we estimated the proportions of residents at a study site and mean residence times. 3. We identified overwintering movement patterns and residence times that contrasted with prior categorizations of territoriality. Most species showed an evidence of residents entering sites at multiple time intervals, with transients tending to enter between peak resident movement times. Persistence and the proportion of residents varied by latitude, but were not always positively correlated for a given species. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that migratory songbirds commonly move among habitats during the overwintering period. Substantial proportions of populations appear to be comprised of transient individuals, and residents tend to persist at specific sites for relatively short periods of time. This information on persistence and movement patterns should be explored for specific habitats to guide landscape management on the wintering grounds, such as determining which habitats are conserved or restored as part of certification programmes of tropical agroforestry crops. We suggest that research and conservation efforts on Neotropical migrant songbirds focus on identifying landscape configurations and regional habitat networks that support these diverse overwintering strategies to secure full life cycle conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Assessing the causal factors underpinning the distribution and abundance of wildlife roadinduced mortality can be challenging. This is particularly ubiquitous for rare or elusive species, because traffic strikes occur infrequently for these populations and information about localized abundance, distribution and movements are generally lacking. Here, we assessed whether citizen-collected sightings data may serve as a low cost and efficient means of gathering long-term animal roadside presence and road-crossing information, which could then be used to assess the causative factors and direct mitigation actions aimed at reducing wildlife traffic strike frequency. 2. We explored this principle using two decades of traffic strike records and citizen-collected sightings of the southern cassowary Casuarius casuarius johnsonii. Roads have bisected the cassowaries' rain forest habitat and despite considerable investment into mitigation strategies for this species, road-induced mortality is considered one of the primary threatening processes affecting the population. 3. Using a Bayesian approach and controlling for spatial autocorrelation with conditional autoregressive models, we demonstrate that traffic strikes are primarily a density-dependent process in the southern cassowary. That is, traffic strike clusters occurred along stretches of road where cassowaries were most frequently sighted. There were, however, road stretches where traffic strike frequency was greater than predicted by the number of roadside sightings, illustrating when and where density-independent processes increased the mortality potential for a road-crossing cassowary. 4. Synthesis and applications. This is the first time that citizen-collected sightings data have been used to systematically inform upon the abundance and distribution of wildlife traffic strike. The technique not only predicts where incidents are likely to occur but also helps us to understand the factors responsible for strike clustering. While not a replacement for systematic surveys, we highlight citizen-collected sightings data as a low-cost option when assessing contributing factors to vehicle-induced mortality. Accounting for density-dependent and density- independent processes will ensure the most effective allocation of resources when implementing wildlife traffic strike mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study related to the herpetological perspective of science, statistics and surveys. Topics discussed include biodiversity assessment keeping in view of the amphibians and reptiles, benefits of population assessment in conservation decision-making, and how conservation legislation protects individual animals and their habitats.

Reliable assessment of animal populations is a long-standing challenge in wildlife ecology. Technological advances have led to widespread adoption of camera traps ( CTs) to survey wildlife distribution, abundance and behaviour. As for any wildlife survey method, camera trapping must contend with sources of sampling error such as imperfect detection. Early applications focused on density estimation of naturally marked species, but there is growing interest in broad-scale CT surveys of unmarked populations and communities. Nevertheless, inferences based on detection indices are controversial, and the suitability of alternatives such as occupancy estimation is debatable., We reviewed 266 CT studies published between 2008 and 2013. We recorded study objectives and methodologies, evaluating the consistency of CT protocols and sampling designs, the extent to which CT surveys considered sampling error, and the linkages between analytical assumptions and species ecology., Nearly two-thirds of studies surveyed more than one species, and a majority used response variables that ignored imperfect detection (e.g. presence-absence, relative abundance). Many studies used opportunistic sampling and did not explicitly report details of sampling design and camera deployment that could affect conclusions., Most studies estimating density used capture-recapture methods on marked species, with spatially explicit methods becoming more prominent. Few studies estimated density for unmarked species, focusing instead on occupancy modelling or measures of relative abundance. While occupancy studies estimated detectability, most did not explicitly define key components of the modelling framework (e.g. a site) or discuss potential violations of model assumptions (e.g. site closure). Studies using relative abundance relied on assumptions of equal detectability, and most did not explicitly define expected relationships between measured responses and underlying ecological processes (e.g. animal abundance and movement)., Synthesis and applications. The rapid adoption of camera traps represents an exciting transition in wildlife survey methodology. We remain optimistic about the technology's promise, but call for more explicit consideration of underlying processes of animal abundance, movement and detection by cameras, including more thorough reporting of methodological details and assumptions. Such transparency will facilitate efforts to evaluate and improve the reliability of camera trap surveys, ultimately leading to stronger inferences and helping to meet modern needs for effective ecological inquiry and biodiversity monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation decision-makers face a trade-off between spending limited funds on direct management action, or gaining new information in an attempt to improve management performance in the future. Value-of-information analysis can help to resolve this trade-off by evaluating how much management performance could improve if new information was gained. Value-of-information analysis has been used extensively in other disciplines, but there are only a few examples where it has informed conservation planning, none of which have used it to evaluate the financial value of gaining new information., We address this gap by applying value-of-information analysis to the management of a declining koala Phascolarctos cinereus population. Decision-makers responsible for managing this population face uncertainty about survival and fecundity rates, and how habitat cover affects mortality threats. The value of gaining new information about these uncertainties was calculated using a deterministic matrix model of the koala population to find the expected population growth rate if koala mortality threats were optimally managed under alternative model hypotheses, which represented the uncertainties faced by koala managers., Gaining new information about survival and fecundity rates and the effect of habitat cover on mortality threats will do little to improve koala management. Across a range of management budgets, no more than 1·7% of the budget should be spent on resolving these uncertainties., The value of information was low because optimal management decisions were not sensitive to the uncertainties we considered. Decisions were instead driven by a substantial difference in the cost efficiency of management actions. The value of information was up to forty times higher when the cost efficiencies of different koala management actions were similar., Synthesis and applications. This study evaluates the ecological and financial benefits of gaining new information to inform a conservation problem. We also theoretically demonstrate that the value of reducing uncertainty is highest when it is not clear which management action is the most cost efficient. This study will help expand the use of value-of-information analyses in conservation by providing a cost efficiency metric by which to evaluate research or monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abundance is a key quantity for conservation and management strategies but remains challenging to assess in the field. Capture-recapture ( CR) methods are often used to estimate abundance while correcting for imperfect detection, but these methods are costly. Occupancy, sometimes considered as a surrogate for abundance, is estimated through the collection of presence/absence data and is less costly while allowing gathering of information at a large spatial scale., Building on the recent pieces of work on the combination of different data sources, we showed how abundance data can be complemented by presence/absence data and can be analysed conjointly to improve abundance estimates. Our approach relies on a hierarchical model that makes explicit the link between the abundance and occupancy state variables while formally accounting for imperfect detection., We used a population of Eurasian lynx in France monitored via camera traps and a collection of presence signs as an illustration of our approach., Synthesis and applications . We combined capture-recapture and occupancy data and demonstrated that we can efficiently improve abundance estimates. Our method can be used by managers when estimates of trends in abundance lack power due to sparse data collected during an intensive survey, by simply integrating data collected during non-systematic survey. Furthermore, combining these two sampling procedures makes full use of all available data and allows the development of conservation and management strategies based on precise abundance estimates. Overall, the combination of different data sources in an integrated statistical framework has great potential, especially for elusive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid environmental change is placing increasing pressure on the survival of many species globally. Ecological refuges can mitigate the impacts of change by facilitating the survival or persistence of organisms in the face of disturbance events that would otherwise lead to their mortality, displacement or extinction. Refuges may have a critical influence on the successional trajectory and resilience of ecosystems, yet their function remains poorly understood., We review and describe the role of refuges in faunal conservation in the context of fire, a globally important disturbance process., Refuges have three main functions in relation to fire: they enhance immediate survival during a fire event, facilitate the persistence of individuals and populations after fire and assist in the re-establishment of populations in the longer term. Refuges may be of natural or anthropogenic origin, and in each case, their creation can arise from deterministic or stochastic processes. The specific attributes of refuges that determine their value are poorly known, but include within-patch attributes relating to vegetation composition and structure; patch-scale attributes associated with their size and shape; and the landscape context and spatial arrangement of the refuge in relation to fire patterns and land uses., Synthesis and applications. Refuges are potentially of great importance in buffering the effects of wildfire on fauna. There is an urgent need for empirical data from a range of ecosystems to better understand what constitutes a refuge for different taxa, the spatial and temporal dynamics of species' use of refuges and the attributes that most influence their value to fauna. Complementary research is also required to evaluate threats to naturally occurring refuges and the potential for management actions to protect, create and enhance refuges. Knowledge of the spatial arrangement of refuges that enhance the persistence of fire-sensitive species will aid in making decisions concerning land and fire management in conservation reserves and large natural areas. Global change in the magnitude and extent of fire regimes means that refuges are likely to be increasingly important for the conservation of biodiversity in fire-prone environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence., Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene ( DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers ( PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure-response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders., The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders., Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively., Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure-response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some large carnivore populations are increasing in Europe and North America, and minimizing interactions between people and carnivores is a major management task. Analysing the effects of human disturbance on wildlife from a predator-prey perspective is also of conservation interest, because individual behavioural responses to the perceived risk of predation may ultimately influence population distribution and demography., The Scandinavian brown bear population provides a good model to study the interactions between an expanding large carnivore population, and people who use forests extensively for professional and recreational activities. We experimentally approached 52 GPS-collared brown bears (293 approaches on foot) from 2006 to 2011, to document the reaction of bears and quantify the effect of disturbance on bear movements., None of the bears reacted aggressively to the observers. Although the location of the animals was known, bears were usually in quite concealed spots and were physically detected in only 16% of the approaches (seen in 42 approaches; heard in 6). However, the bears altered their daily movement patterns after the approaches. Bears increased movement at night-time and moved less at daytime, which was most visible in days 1 and 2 after the approaches, altering their foraging and resting routines., Synthesis and applications. We provide experimental evidence on the effect of human disturbance on a large carnivore. The lack of aggressive reactions to approaching observers reinforces the idea that European brown bears generally avoid people, although bears can respond aggressively if they feel threatened (e.g. when wounded). However, the movement patterns of the bears changed after disturbance. Separating large carnivores and people temporally and spatially is an important goal for conservation and management. Conserving the shrub cover that provides concealment to the carnivores and keeping people away from the most densely vegetated spots in the forests is a way to avoid encounters between carnivores and people, therefore promoting human safety and carnivore conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Harvesting of large mammals is usually not random, and directional selection has been identified as the main cause of rapid evolution. However, selective harvesting in meat and recreational hunting cultures does not automatically imply directional selection for trait size. 2. Harvesting selectivity is more than a matter of hunter preference. Selection is influenced by management regulations, hunting methods, animal trait variance, behaviour and abundance. Most studies of hunter selection only report age- or sex-specific selection, or differences in trait size selection among hunting methods or groups of hunters, rather than trait size relative to the age-specific means required for directional selection. 3. Synthesis and applications. Managers aiming to avoid rapid evolution should not only consider directional selection and trophy hunting but also mitigate other important evolutionary forces such as harvesting intensity per se, and sexual selection processes that are affected by skewed sex ratios and age structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conflict between humans and animals, generated by behaviours like crop raiding, can represent a major threat to the survival and conservation of protected species. Crop raiding is an example where the conflict is assumed to be attributable to a small number of habitually raiding animals. No studies have systematically tested this assumption on African elephants Loxodonta africana. In the greater Amboseli basin, in southern Kenya, we determined the number of elephants that come into conflict with humans through crop raiding, their gender, and their patterns of raiding. We tracked footprints, and observed elephants after they raided farms, and genotyped DNA extracted from faeces collected from raided farms. Using these data, we estimated the number of raiders with asymptotic regression and count models. We found that 241 elephants from several elephant populations in the Amboseli basin raided farms. Raiders were independent males; we detected no females raiding crops. Approximately 35% of the raiders were from the Amboseli elephant population, representing about 1/3 of the independent males in that population. Approximately 12% of raiders from the Amboseli elephant population were habitual and were responsible for 56% of elephant raiding events. Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that targeted elimination of habitual raiders could in theory reduce crop raiding. However, the large pool of occasional raiders, the availability of palatable crops in areas of conflict, and the link between crop-raiding and natural male foraging tactics, indicates great potential for recruitment of habitual raiders from this pool of occasional raiders. Furthermore, shooting of raiders as a strategy for reducing crop raiding carries a high risk of misidentifying habitual raiders. We suggest instead an ethical management strategy that uses remote monitoring of raiders as an early warning system for crop protection, and longitudinal studies to evaluate the development of habitual raiding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several conservation initiatives are aiming to improve the status of the rapidly dwindling populations of tiger Panthera tigris. However, possible cascading effects of intra-guild competition on other sympatric carnivores are rarely considered while planning such recovery programmes. In this study, we examine how, following the reduction of anthropogenic pressures by relocation of pastoralists, a recovering tiger population affects leopards Panthera pardus in the Chilla Range of Rajaji National Park (RNP), India. By combining data gathered over 4 years (2004-2005 to 2007-2008) on prey availability, food habits and population density of the two predators, we investigate some of the mechanisms of niche partitioning. Based on existing information, we predicted that there would be high dietary overlap between the two predators. Over time, optimal habitats would be dominated by tigers forcing leopards to the periphery of the protected area where they would subsist on small prey and domestic livestock. Consequently, leopards would occur at a lower density where sympatric with tigers. Our results confirmed that annual dietary overlap (0·89, 0·82, 0·78, 0·77) between the two predators was high during the study. As expected, we observed a shift in the diet of leopards towards a significantly higher intake of domestic prey (∼6·8% to ∼31·8%) and small prey (∼9% to ∼36%). Mean leopard density declined from 9·76 animals per 100 km in 2004-2005 to 2·07 per 100 km in 2007-2008, while the mean density of tigers increased from 3·31 per 100 km to 5·81 per 100 km over the same period. Synthesis and applications. Although based on small sample sizes, our study revealed that over the 4 years following the relocation of pastoralists out of RNP, the tiger population recovered but leopard densities declined sharply. The concurrent shift in leopard diet indicated heightened livestock depredation from the surrounding area. Therefore, it is important that conservation initiatives targeting the recovery of tigers should be preceded by careful examination of interspecific interactions with sympatric carnivores. Comprehensive human-carnivore conflict management measures like monitoring the extent of livestock depredation, improving livestock management and providing adequate compensation and/or insurance schemes are critical for successfully implementing such conservation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock grazing is an important form of land use across the globe and changes in grazing pressure can have profound effects on vertebrate populations. In Scotland, over the last decade sheep numbers in many areas have declined from historically high levels, providing an opportunity to explore the implications of these declines for biodiversity. The hen harrier Circus cyaneus is a bird of high conservation importance in the UK, and a species that may be heavily influenced by the indirect effects of sheep on habitat and prey. The hen harrier population on the Orkney Islands in Scotland has been monitored since 1975 and represents an ideal case study for considering the impact of sheep de-stocking on a key predator. Declines in the harrier population were associated with a doubling in sheep numbers between the early 1980s and the late 1990s. Subsequently, as sheep numbers have fallen the harrier population has recovered. These changes indicate an association but no clear mechanism, so we tested whether reductions in sheep numbers have led to increases in harrier prey or preferred foraging habitat. We then tested whether breeding output over the last 33 years correlates with sheep stocking levels or variation in weather conditions (rainfall and temperature). Orkney sheep numbers declined by about 20% between 1998 and 2008. Surveys in 1999/2000 and repeated in 2008 showed increases in rough grassland, the preferred harrier foraging habitat, and increases in a key prey species, the Orkney vole Microtus arvalis orcadensis. Overall, hen harrier breeding output over the last 33 years was significantly negatively correlated to both sheep abundance and spring rainfall. Synthesis and application. This study provides strong evidence for the consequences of changes in sheep numbers on a top predator. Our results indicate that reductions in sheep numbers are likely to prove beneficial for some upland species, particularly small mammals and their predators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many valuable contributions to the biology and conservation of harvested or previously harvested species have come from examination of specimens obtained by lethal collections. The northern fur seal Callorhinus ursinus on the Pribilof Islands, Alaska, has a long history of exploitation, including a large (>320 000) experimental harvest of females from 1955 to 1968 when the population was at a peak (∼2 million seals). The decline caused by this harvest was followed in 1977 by another major decline, apparently unrelated to harvest, that has recently accelerated. To obtain current reproductive data that could be compared directly with historic estimates, we used imaging ultrasonography to estimate pregnancy rate in 171 adult fur seals captured on St. Paul Island, Alaska, in November, near the end of embryonic diapause. A modified logistic regression of pregnancy by date was used to estimate asymptotic pregnancy rate; a Bayesian hierarchical model based on date and size of embryonic vesicle was also used to account for pregnancies that were not detectable on the date of examination. Pregnancy rate was high [0·85 (SE = 0·05), 0·88 (SE = 0·05) or 0·92 (SE = 0·04), depending on method] and there was little statistical support for the hypothesis that the current pregnancy rate is lower than the pre-decline rate (0·84, SE = 0·012) or contributing significantly to the present decline. Synthesis and applications. Further study on intrauterine losses and pupping rates is necessary and ongoing, but reproductive ultrasonography provided an early comparative assessment important for the conservation management of this fur seal stock. It narrows the search for demographic and ecological causes of the population decline and allows research priorities to evolve in response to the likelihood of those causes. The field and analytic methods described have application to population assessments of other mammalian species, including those considered threatened or serving as ecosystem indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Worldwide loss of biodiversity necessitates a clear understanding of the factors driving population declines as well as informed predictions about which species and populations are at greatest risk. The biggest threat to the long-term persistence of populations is the reduction and changes in configuration of their natural habitat. 2. Inconsistencies have been noted in the responses of populations to the combined effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. These have been widely attributed to the effects of the matrix habitats in which remnant focal habitats are typically embedded. 3. We quantified the potential effects of the inter-patch matrix by estimating occupancy and colonization of forest and surrounding non-forest matrix (NF). We estimated species-specific parameters using a dynamic, multi-species hierarchical model on a bird community in southwestern Costa Rica. 4. Overall, we found higher probabilities of occupancy and colonization of forest relative to the NF across bird species, including those previously categorized as open habitat generalists not needing forest to persist. Forest dependency was a poor predictor of occupancy dynamics in our study region, largely predicting occupancy and colonization of only non-forest habitats. 5. Our results indicate that the protection of remnant forest habitats is key for the long-term persistence of all members of the bird community in this fragmented landscape, including species typically associated with open, non-forest habitats. 6. Synthesis and applications. We identified 39 bird species of conservation concern defined by having high estimates of forest occupancy, and low estimates of occupancy and colonization of non-forest. These species survive in forest but are unlikely to venture out into open, non-forested habitats, therefore, they are vulnerable to the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Our hierarchical community-level model can be used to estimate species-specific occupancy dynamics for... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Matrix population models are tools for elucidating the association between demographic processes and population dynamics. A large amount of useful theory pivots on the assumption of equilibrium dynamics. The preceding transient is, however, of genuine conservation concern as it encompasses the short-term impact of natural or anthropogenic disturbance on the population. 2. We review recent theoretical advances in deterministic transient analysis of matrix projection models, considering how disturbance can alter population dynamics by provoking a new population trajectory. 3. We illustrate these impacts using plant and vertebrate systems across contiguous and fragmented landscapes. 4. Short-term responses are of fundamental relevance for applied ecology, because the time-scale of transient effects is often similar to the length of many conservation projects. Investigation of the immediate, post-disturbance phase is vital for understanding how population processes respond to widespread disturbance in the short- and into the long term. 5. Synthesis and applications. Transient analysis is critical for understanding and predicting the consequences of management activities. By considering short-term population responses to perturbations, especially in long-lived species, managers can develop more informed strategies for species harvesting or controlling of invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. The maximum annual population growth rate ( rm) is a critical parameter in many models of wildlife dynamics and management. An important application of rm is the estimation of the maximum proportion of a population that can be removed to stop population growth ( p). 2. When rm cannot be estimated in the field, one option is to estimate it from demographic data. We evaluate the use of the relationship between rm and female age at first reproduction (α), which is independent of phylogeny, to estimate rm. We first demonstrate that the relationship between field and demographic estimates of rm is unbiased. We then show that the relationship provides an unbiased and simple method to estimate rm using data for 64 mammal species. We also show that p declines exponentially as α increases. 3. We use the fitted relationship to estimate annual rm and p for 55 mammal species in Australia and New Zealand for which there are no field estimates of rm. The estimates differ by species but have low precision (wide 95% credible intervals CIs). Our estimate of rm for the Tasmanian devil Sarcophilus harrisii is high (0·6, 95% CI: 0·05–2·39) and suggests devils would become extinct if >0·34 of the population is removed annually (e.g. by facial tumour disease). Our estimate of rm (0·77, 95% CI: 0·71–1·05) for brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula is much greater than published estimates and highlights the need for further field estimates of rm for the species in New Zealand. 4. Synthesis and applications. Since rm has not been estimated in the field for the majority of mammal species, our approach enables estimates with credible intervals for this important parameter to be obtained for any species for which female age at first reproduction is known. However, the estimates have wide ... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Understanding spatial structure and identifying subpopulations are critical for estimating population growth rates and extinction risk, and as such essential for effective conservation planning. However, movement and spatiotemporal environmental data are often unavailable, limiting our ability to directly define subpopulations and their level of asynchrony. 2. This study applies a recently developed statistical technique using time-series analysis of abundance data to identify subpopulations. The approach uses multivariate state-space models and Akaike’s Information Criterion-based model selection to quantify the data support for different subpopulation numbers and configurations. This technique is applied to the population of California sea lions Zalophus californianus in the Gulf of California, Mexico, distributed across 13 breeding sites. 3. The abundance of California sea lions in the Gulf of California has declined over the last decade, though not all areas have been equally affected. In light of this variation, it is important to understand the population structure to ensure accurate viability assessments and effective management. 4. Our data support the hypothesis that the Gulf of California sea lion population has four subpopulations, each with 2–5 breeding sites. The dynamics between several adjacent subpopulations were correlated, suggesting that they experience similar environmental variation. For each subpopulation, we estimated long-term growth rates, as well as the environmental and observation variation. 5. For most of the subpopulations, our estimates of growth rates were considerably lower than those previously reported. In addition, we found considerable variability across subpopulations in their projected risk of severe decline over the next 50 years. 6. Synthesis and applications. We illustrate a new multivariate state-space modelling technique that uses time series of abundance to quantify the data support for different subpopulation configurations. Our analysis of the California sea lion population in the Gulf of California indicates that the population is spatially structured into four subpopulations, each exhibiting distinct risks of extinction. Based on our results, we recommend that conservation and management efforts in the Gulf of California focus on the two subpopulations with high probabilities of extinction within the next 50 years (Northern Midriff, Southern Midriff). Multivariate state-space models provide a practical approach to determine the spatial structure of virtually any species; they may be particularly useful for species of conservation concern for which data on dispersal and environmental drivers are likely to be scarce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Accurate resource selection functions (RSFs) are important for managing animal populations. Developing RSFs using data from GPS telemetry can be problematic due to serial autocorrelation, but modern analytical techniques can help to compensate for this correlation. 2. We used telemetry locations from 18 woodland caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou in Saskatchewan, Canada, to compare marginal (population-specific) generalized estimating equations (GEEs), and conditional (subject-specific) generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs), for developing resource selection functions at two spatial scales. We evaluated the use of empirical standard errors, which are robust to misspecification of the correlation structure. We compared these approaches with destructive sampling. 3. Statistical significance was strongly influenced by the use of empirical vs. model-based standard errors, and marginal (GEE) and conditional (GLMM) results differed. Destructive sampling reduced apparent habitat selection. k-fold cross-validation results differed for GEE and GLMM, as it must be applied differently for each model. 4. Synthesis and applications. Due to their different interpretations, marginal models (e.g. generalized estimating equations, GEEs) may be better for landscape and population management, while conditional models (e.g. generalized linear mixed-effects models, GLMMs) may be better for management of endangered species and individuals. Destructive sampling may lead to inaccurate resource selection functions (RSFs), but GEEs and GLMMs can be used for developing RSFs when used with empirical standard errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Many protected areas are now faced with increasing pressure from visitors and tourism development. There is thus an urgent need for conservation biologists to evaluate the full impact of human disturbance not only on individual responses, but also on the viability of protected populations, so that relevant management measures can be proposed. 2. We studied the impact of tourism on the rare and endangered chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax on a protected French island to assess the relationship between visitor pressure, bird individual behaviour and fitness, and population viability. During 8 years, we monitored foraging behaviour and estimated monthly juvenile survival using mark-recapture data. Population viability was examined under different tourism scenarios, using a stochastic individual-based model that incorporated the impact of visitor numbers on juvenile survival. 3. In summer, the foraging probability of choughs was negatively correlated with the number of visitors. As a result, the time allocated to foraging during peak tourist season, adjusted to day length and prey availability, was 50% lower than expected. 4. Juvenile survival rates were lowest in August, the peak tourist season, and varied significantly across years. August survival rate and therefore annual survival were negatively correlated with the number of visitors on the island in August and, except for a minor negative effect of rainfall, were not influenced by other environmental variables. 5. Stochastic simulations predicted a low probability of extinction of the protected population if the number of visitors remains constant in the future. However, short-term viability would be dramatically reduced if the current rate of increase in visitor numbers is maintained. 6. Synthesis and applications. We show that a relatively minor human-induced disturbance (e.g. scaring individuals away) has dramatic effects on population viability in a protected area, even when breeding individuals are not directly affected. This suggests that the full impact of tourism in protected areas may be overlooked, and has direct consequences for the assessment of sustainable levels of human disturbance and the design of quantitative management options compatible with tourist activities in protected areas. We specifically emphasize the need for more integrative approaches combining research at individual and population levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Management decisions for threatened and endangered species require risks to be identified and prioritized, based on the degree to which they influence population dynamics. The potential for recovery of small populations at risk may be determined by multiple factors, including intrinsic population characteristics (inbreeding, sex ratios) and extrinsic variables (prey availability, disease, human disturbance). Using Bayesian statistical methods, the impact of each of these risk factors on demographic rates can be quantified and assigned probabilities to express uncertainty. 2. We assessed the impact of a wide range of factors on the fecundity of two threatened populations of killer whales Orcinus orca, specifically whether killer whale production is limited by availability of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Additional variables included anthropogenic factors, climate variables, temporal effects, and population variables (population size, number of males, female age). 3. Our results indicate that killer whale fecundity is highly correlated with the abundance of Chinook salmon. For example, the probability of a female calving differed by 50% between years of low salmon abundance and high salmon abundance. Weak evidence exists for linking fecundity to other variables, such as sea surface temperature. 4. There was strong data support for reproductive senescence in female killer whales. This pattern of rapid maturity and gradual decline of fecundity with age commonly seen in terrestrial mammals has been documented in few marine mammal species. Maximum production for this species occurs between ages 20--22, and reproductive performance declines gradually to menopause over a period of 25 years. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our results provide strong evidence for reproductive senescence in killer whales, and more importantly, that killer whale fecundity is strongly tied to the abundance of Chinook salmon, a species that is susceptible to environmental variation and has high commercial value to fisheries. This strong predator¿prey relationship highlights the importance of understanding which salmon populations overlap with killer whales seasonally and spatially, so that those salmon populations important as prey for killer whales can be identified and targeted for conservation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]