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In recent years many bee species have expanded/contracted their ranges in response to natural or human-induced changes in habitats. Therefore, identifying suitable habitats and evaluating connectivity between them is crucial for the conservation of species. Species distribution models (SDMs) and connectivity algorithms are the main tools currently available to provide knowledge of species potential to shift/expand their ranges. We aimed to identify the core habitats of Apis florea and evaluate connectivity between populations. We carried out a multi-level modeling framework to predict an ensemble model of habitat suitability of the species in three critical months (May, October, and January) based on (1) only the climatic variables; (2) both climatic and environmental data. Then, we used the concept of circuit theory to evaluate potential linkages between core habitats. Spatial patterns of suitable habitats and connectivity between them varied across months. Potential habitats of the species appeared to be strongly influenced by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), croplands, village density, and water vapor pressure. Most of the predicted core habitats and connectivity were found in the western half of the species range in May due to the abundance of nectar and pollen in habitats. Contrary to the western parts, core habitats in eastern regions appeared to be fragmented with limited connectivity. Our results provided the first map of connectivity for A. florea that could improve the understanding of the distribution of red dwarf honey bees and contribute to conservation strategies to protect core areas for this keystone pollinator species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of spatial patterns of climatically suitable habitats, and species range contractions/expansions, or shifts due to changing climate are important to improve the effectiveness of conservation efforts. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are the primary tools currently available for evaluating species' response to anthropogenic or natural changes. We used ENMs to evaluate potential effects of future climate changes on the distribution range of a keystone pollinator, Apis florea Fabricius 1787 (Apidae: Apini), across its native range. We also provided a picture of the potential paleodistribution range of this species to complement future genetic/phylogenetic studies. In all assessed scenarios (i.e past, current, and future), the species was limited to its current native range and the mean temperature of the coldest season was the most key determinative factor affecting the species' climate niche. The projection results revealed that the extent of climatically suitable habitats of the species was probably more than current in the past time periods and will increase in the future. Our findings of the consequences of climate changes on geographical distributions of this pollinator facilitate future management efforts for the species conservation by the identification of potential habitats where A. florea may already exist, prioritizing key habitats within the species' native range under the current and future conditions, and recognizing regions where it is likely to spread its range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]