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Background Many preschool children have wheeze or cough, but only some have asthma later. Existing prediction tools are difficult to apply in clinical practice or exhibit methodological weaknesses. Objective We sought to develop a simple and robust tool for predicting asthma at school age in preschool children with wheeze or cough. Methods From a population-based cohort in Leicestershire, United Kingdom, we included 1- to 3-year-old subjects seeing a doctor for wheeze or cough and assessed the prevalence of asthma 5 years later. We considered only noninvasive predictors that are easy to assess in primary care: demographic and perinatal data, eczema, upper and lower respiratory tract symptoms, and family history of atopy. We developed a model using logistic regression, avoided overfitting with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalty, and then simplified it to a practical tool. We performed internal validation and assessed its predictive performance using the scaled Brier score and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results Of 1226 symptomatic children with follow-up information, 345 (28%) had asthma 5 years later. The tool consists of 10 predictors yielding a total score between 0 and 15: sex, age, wheeze without colds, wheeze frequency, activity disturbance, shortness of breath, exercise-related and aeroallergen-related wheeze/cough, eczema, and parental history of asthma/bronchitis. The scaled Brier scores for the internally validated model and tool were 0.20 and 0.16, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.76 and 0.74, respectively. Conclusion This tool represents a simple, low-cost, and noninvasive method to predict the risk of later asthma in symptomatic preschool children, which is ready to be tested in other populations.

Background Among children with wheeze and recurrent cough there is great variation in clinical presentation and time course of the disease. We previously distinguished 5 phenotypes of wheeze and cough in early childhood by applying latent class analysis to longitudinal data from a population-based cohort (original cohort). Objective To validate previously identified phenotypes of childhood cough and wheeze in an independent cohort. Methods We included 903 children reporting wheeze or recurrent cough from an independent population-based cohort (validation cohort). As in the original cohort, we used latent class analysis to identify phenotypes on the basis of symptoms of wheeze and cough at 2 time points (preschool and school age) and objective measurements of atopy, lung function, and airway responsiveness (school age). Prognostic outcomes (wheeze, bronchodilator use, cough apart from colds) 5 years later were compared across phenotypes. Results When using a 5-phenotype model, the analysis distinguished 3 phenotypes of wheeze and 2 of cough as in the original cohort. Two phenotypes were closely similar in both cohorts: Atopic persistent wheeze (persistent multiple trigger wheeze and chronic cough, atopy and reduced lung function, poor prognosis) and transient viral wheeze (early-onset transient wheeze with viral triggers, favorable prognosis). The other phenotypes differed more between cohorts. These differences might be explained by differences in age at measurements. Conclusions Applying the same method to 2 different cohorts, we consistently identified 2 phenotypes of wheeze (atopic persistent wheeze, transient viral wheeze), suggesting that these represent distinct disease processes. Differences found in other phenotypes suggest that the age when features are assessed is critical and should be considered carefully when defining phenotypes.