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The article analyzes economist James Ohlson's paper "Analysis of the Usefulness of Accounting Data for the Portfolio Decision: A Decision-Theory Approach," in order to determine if he's making a model comparison or a model choice. Ohlson's thesis is that he used methods of comparing models, but the author demonstrates the inaccuracies in that thesis. The author tests Ohlson's findings and also considers the portfolio-choice problem and whether the findings are conditional upon the comparison of the forecasting models used.

The article presents the author's commentary on the report "Decision Theory Aspects of Internal Control System Design/Compliance and Substantive Tests," by William Kinney, included within the issue, criticizing his decision-theory paradigm to the American Institute of Certified Public Accountant's Statement on Auditing Standards (SAS) number 1, section 320. It is suggested that Kinney's mathematical models are oversimplified in many elements of practice and implication.

Researchers have previously found that different materiality thresholds explain some of the difference between auditors' materiality judgments. By treating materiality as an ordinally scaled variable rather than as a nominally scaled variable, and by using the conjoint measurement methodology, the study reported in this paper was able to focus on two other possible sources of differences-the form of the individual auditor's decision model and the scaling of levels of contributing variables. The study revealed that there were some differences in the form of auditors' decision models. The study also provided evidence that auditors scaled the contributing variables differently. Thus future efforts to explain auditors materiality decisions must give consideration to these two factors (rather than assuming additive models and linear part-worth functions for all auditors). The research methodology presented in this paper provides the researcher with a tool which will allow investigation of these two factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a reprint of the article "Behavioral decision theory: Processes of judgment and choice," by Hillel J. Einhorn and Robin M. Hogarth, which appeared in the "Annual Review of Psychology." The article provides an overview of several behavioral research papers to complement the behavioral decision theory study of Einhorn and Hogarth. The article explains the several ways to evaluate the discrepancies between the outputs of optimal models and human responses. Studies on the importance to behavior of the cognitive representation of the task are provided. By the examining the behavioral decision theory within a broad psychological context, the article emphasizes the importance of attention, memory, cognitive representation, conflict, learning and feedback.

The article presents a review of accounting research literature addressing the methodologies proposed for assessing cost variance significance. Multiple procedures are outlined, including decision models based on single or multiple observations, and the inclusion or exclusion of cost of investigation and misclassification within the equations. Industrial quality control techniques are also surveyed and compared to accounting applications. Prominent research reports published regarding the subject are also mentioned, highlighting underlying assumptions and model flaws. Conclusions are offered citing extension possibilities and an independent model for selecting which paradigm would be most appropriate for circumstantial use.

The article reports on research which examined the relationship between information structures, decision making, and learning patterns of business enterprises. A set of controlled laboratory experiments were conducted in 1968 with the objective of generating empirical evidence as to the relation between information, information value, and decision. The empirical value of timely information was significantly greater than the expected theoretical value calculated according to the principles of information economics. Experts say a major problem in developing a theory of human problem solving is that there are different effects resulting from similar informational input streams due to what can be termed "structural variables" in the mental organization of the decision maker.

The article comments on the study "Analysis of the Usefulness of Accounting Data for the Portfolio Decision: A Decision-Theory Approach," by James Ohlson in order to determine whether accounting information in corporate reports is useful to investors. The author analyzes Ohlson's experiment involving an individual risk-averse investor selecting an optimal portfolio who wants to make forecasts about stock prices, and tests the Bayesian models used. The author points out several weaknesses in Ohlson's theory involving the utility function, prior values of parameters, and the prediction formulas used.

The article presents an analysis of Laureen A. Maines's examination of judgments of consensus forecasts' accuracy. She asserted that decision makers incorrectly assess the accuracy of accounting forecasts, particularly when there is little redundancy among the individual forecasters. However, others questioned whether high correlation among forecast errors might be attributable to forecasters uses identical data and/or methods. The author raises other questions related to research design, external validity and the interpretation of results.

This article assesses audit risk in situations when the audit technology is imperfect and the auditor and auditee are interacting. The work is divided into nonstragic audit risk and strategic audit risk, the difference being the former contains accidential errors while the latter is intentional. The purpose of the study is to assist with new regulations aimed at greater detection of accounting fraud. The author bases his model on strategic-testing theory and components of decision-theoretic testing as well.

The article focuses on how operating decisions can result in disclosure of management accounting information.It mentions that analytic tractability can be provided with an assumption of normality of random variables, and that multiple equilibria can be ruled out with an assumption of a constant disclosure-related cost. It mentions that cost functions exist that wouldn't affect the regions' monotonicity which would result in the need to prove that a unique maximum exists to the owner's problem. It comments on the use of replacement decisions as an alternative communications means.

The article looks at the costs associated with and the need for developing decision aids to help accountants make choices. An alternative approach is presented that seeks to be a better method than the typical input-output analysis that is used. Using verbal protocol analysis, the researchers were able to observe the decision making process that people used when trying to figure out how to minimize production costs for a theoretical product that was made by a tooling machine. The model theorized by the authors takes into account model selection, divergence between the human and formal accounting models, and the opportunity costs of decision aids.

The article refers to research on residual analysis and examines the relationship between the private value of information (PVI) and the abnormal performance index (API) metric. The API metric is an ordinary measure of an associative relationship or correlation between market signals and the unexpected components of returns or residuals. The metric is also the outcome of a portfolio strategy for securities where long and short positions are taken. PVI is interpreted as an associative measure based on the sign of market signals and expected returns. A market model where the investor is a single-period, expected utility maximizer, the small risk probabilities in the equations for a portfolio selection rule, and the value of an information-contingent strategy are explained.

This article studies the functional fixity problem and offers some additional evidence concerning the existence of a fixity phenomenon. The authors describe the psychological aspect of functional fixity and the application of data fixity in accounting. There are two types of situations that allow decision makers the opportunity to exhibit data fixity. These are the decision makers' inability to respond to changes in the methodology for calculating a data input and when the same method is used to calculate a data input, but new numbers are produced. The authors conclude that fixity is not a phenomenon that is unavoidable.

In this article the author explores a particular decision problem facing a non-profit organization, analyzes the effects of budgets on this decision, and examines the empirical evidence from a nonprofit organization to determine how consistent the analytic model's predictions and data are. This decision problem will be symbolic of the spending problem and it will deal with the allocation of a fixed budget over the fiscal year by the nonprofit agency. Also, any unspent funds at the end of the year are not rolled over to the next year.

The article presents the author's comments on the report "Decision Theory Aspects of Internal Control System Design/Compliance and Substantive Tests," by William R. Kinney, included within the issue, criticizing the specifics and conceptual underpinnings of decision theory applications to auditing procedures. The particular impact of auditor's reactions to perceived errors to Kinney's model is discussed in detail.

The article presents a decision-theory based methodology to audit evidence analysis in compliance with the American Institute of Certified Public Accountant's Statement on Auditing Standards number 1, section 320. An overview is provided of the recommended auditing procedures of the statement, outlining evaluation of internal control subsystems and statistical interpretation of their results. An integrated paradigm considering internal control system design, analytical review, and compliance measures is given. A numerical example is also provided and contrasted with alternative methodologies to highlight its capability.

In this study I use an experiment to examine why auditors are more likely to issue going-concern opinions when the client has been the subject of negative press coverage prior to the date of the audit opinion. I find no evidence that negative press coverage increases auditors' perceptions of legal liability, as was suggested in the prior literature. I do find, however, that negative press coverage increases auditors' perception of a client's bankruptcy probability and this, in turn, leads auditors to modify the audit opinion. Because the press coverage presented in this study provides no new information, the results suggest that auditors react too strongly to redundant information. This over-reaction can result in inefficient allocation of audit resources and can have deleterious affects on clients. Accordingly, policy makers, auditors and their clients might be interested in how auditors' reliance on redundant information can be reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on the results of two experiments designed to determine the role of decision strategies in understanding professionals' susceptibility to judgment biases. The first experiment involves the authors' manipulating tax professionals' ability to control the evidence evaluation process in a familiar tax judgment task. The experiment found that the ability to control the order in which conflicting evidence was evaluated eliminated recency. In the second experiment, the authors' changed the judgment task to a relatively unfamiliar, non-professional context, while maintaining the underlying structure of the task. The results suggest that recency was dependent on the interaction of control over the judgment task and the decision context.

The article examines the determinants and effects of managers' decisions to increase segment disclosure frequency. The article aims to contribute to disclosure literature by examining firm attributes previously associated with cross-sectional differences in disclosure levels as possible explanations for differences in disclosure frequency. The article also presents a test that examines whether changes in these firm characteristics in the predisclosure period are associated with the decision to increase segment disclosure frequency.

This article discusses the impact of financial incentives, performance feedback and justification requirement on decision making in relation to decision aids. The authors found that decision performance improved when using the each of the three methods but decreased when a decision aid was incorporated. This negative effect of decision aids counters conventional wisdom that suggests auditors employ them to overcome bias and inconsistencies. The authors also contend that financial incentives, performance feedback and justification requirement are a prominent feature of real world practice and should be investigated.

This article reports on a study which addresses subjects' perception of the effect on information value of the degree of uncertainty in the prior state probability distribution in a particular decision setting. The authors use an experimental setting which separates the processes of decision making and information evaluation. They discuss briefly the concept of degree of uncertainty and its functional relationship with information value. An evaluation of the differences in the results of this study from previous research is presented. The authors conclude that information accuracy is an information system characteristic, whereas initial uncertainty is an "extrasystem" determinant.

This article studies the stewardship demand for information, its relationship to decision-making demand and implications for the theory of financial reporting. The author briefly reviews the literature on stewardship demand for financial reporting. The main objective is to identify issues which may benefit from formal analysis. Then, the author presents a generalized agency model and the stewardship demand for information is discussed within the framework of this model. A decision which is to be made after information is received is discussed.

This article presents the authors' comment on several implications of Hillel J. Einhorn and Robin M. Hogarth's study of accounting research. There are three issues in the study addressed by the authors. These are the general issues of the "reasonableness" of normative models of decision making, the issue of the reasonableness of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of choice and how individuals tend to frame and make decisions. The authors explain why choice theory is important to the practice of accounting, as well as to the production of accounting research. The authors conclude that the comparative advantage of accounting researchers is in the study of institutional dimensions.

This article discusses a descriptive study relevant to one component of the information evaluation model, the evaluator's probability distribution over actions the decision maker might choose. The author conducts an experiment to determine the ability of information evaluators to acquire knowledge about a decision maker's model and to apply the acquired knowledge to the evaluator's own decision making. The author discusses two paradigms, the information evaluation and lens models, that provide conceptual and methodological foundations for the study. He also describes the experimental task, subjects, and hypotheses. The results suggest that under certain conditions information evaluators may be able to acquire knowledge about a decision maker's model and apply that knowledge consistently to their own decision making. Several implications for information evaluation and issues for further research are discussed.

This article discusses findings of a study designed to examine an information evaluator's (IE) perceptions of accuracy as a determinant of information value. The authors provide an overview of previous studies concerning the issue. A study methodology is described. The study showed that subjects who received feedback did not on average perceive the effect of accuracy on information value significantly differently than those who did not receive feedback. Also, the non-risk-neutral subjects did not on average perceive the effect of accuracy on information value differently from risk-neutral subjects. The authors conclude that the proportion of information value functions which were nonmonotonic in accuracy was significantly greater in the feedback group than in the nonfeedback group.

The article discusses how information is collected and used in the evaluation of corporate financial performance and the system of management controls from an accounting perspective. The focus is on the decision-influencing role and decision-facilitating role of information, according to Demski and Feltham (1976). The mathematical models explained are: Decision-Influencing Information in the Basic Principal-Agent Model which includes budget variances and conditional investigation procedures; Decision-Influencing Information in an Expanded Principal-Agent Model which refers to responsibility accounting and cost allocation; Decision-Facilitating Information in the Principal-Agent Model which mentions first-best solutions; and a model referred to as a multiperiod setting.

The article refers to research on human information processing, decision making, and prediction models for failure and examines the choice and use of information in predicting debt defaults. Two problems in earlier studies were the definition of failure and use of predetermined information cues in the decision process. Two approaches to failure prediction are: the application of mathematical or statistical models based on available data; and the ability of the judge or decision maker to apply accounting information when evaluating failed and nonfailed pairs of firms. Three stages in the problem of information choice, the lens model, the judge as a human or mathematical model, and six strategies in the prediction of the environmental event or default are mentioned.

The article refers to research by Kinney (1975) and extends the decision-theory (DT) approach to include nonsampling error in the context of account receivables confirmation. Mathematical models for estimating the variable cost of sampling and nonsampling error, evaluation of the informativeness/cost trade-off, and effect of sampling costs on decisions concerning sample size are explained. Informativeness coefficients or conditional probabilities, five independent variables of confirmation informativeness, and four parameters necessary for including nonsampling error in the DT method are mentioned, as well as the conclusion that negative confirmation can be optimal in the expected cost DT framework.

The article presents an exploration into the obtaining of complete information ordering within a Markowitz one-period portfolio, regardless of investor circumstances. The challenges in processing information resources to predict investor behavior, whether through optimal resource management or individual preferences, are described. Mathematical models are offered to examine the information structure present within the decision making process in investing and conclusions are offered suggesting connections to accounting data interpretation rather than risk-disposition as well as the value of inside information regardless of circumstance.

The article presents an exploration into comparative judgment practices in relation to numerical data, citing the Weber-Fechner Law of psychophysical decision-making and re-examining whether or not individual numerical analysis matches the paradigm of this Law. Previous research on the topic is reviewed and reproduced to corroborate continuing and subsequently derived questions on the initial studies. The results suggest that psychophysical theory parallels many characteristics of numerical analysis but does not implicitly manifest itself.

The article presents a re-evaluation of internal firm information system selection models, previously derived from non-competitive perspectives, to include multiperson paradigms wherein the choices of individual firm influence the valuation and adoption of its system and can effect competitors' actions. A multiperson non-cooperative game setting is presented suggesting increased value of a coarse system over a fine system, despite logical contradictions. A multiperson productive action choice construction is also presented, along with conceptual definitions of private value.

The article reports on a study which measured and compared the effects of budget adaptiveness and tightness on managerial decision behavior. Budget adaptiveness in this context refers to the extent to which differences between expected and actual environmental observations for a period are reflected in that period's budget. The results of this study showed no statistically significant differences in decision adaptiveness between groups differentiated according to either budget adaptiveness or budget tightness.