Search

Climate change will hit Africa economically hard, not least Southeast Africa. Understanding the impact of extreme climatic events is important for both economic development and climate change policy. Global climatological summaries reveal high damage potential pathways for developed countries. Will countries in Africa, especially in the southeastern board of the continent, be vulnerable to loss-generating extreme climate events? This study examined for countries in the sub-region, their vulnerability and damage costs, the impact of climate change on tropical storm damage, as well as the differential impacts of storm damages. An approach using a combination of physical and economic reasoning, as well as results of previous studies, reveals that in Southeast Africa, the economic response to the key damage parameters of intensity, size and wind speed is significant for all the countries. Damages in Kenya and Tanzania are sensitive to wind speed. Both vulnerability and adaptation are important for Madagascar and Mozambique – two countries predicted to be persistently damaged by tropical storms. For Mauritius and South Africa, inflictions from extreme events are expected to be impactful, and would require resilient public and private infrastructure. Reducing the physical and socio-economic vulnerability to extreme events will require addressing the underlying socio-economic drivers, as well as developing critical public infrastructure.

In the past, Kigali has frequently experienced heavy rain events. These have often led to flooding, which also affected businesses. In the face of climate change, such events can become more frequent and can threaten economic development. To determine if more action is needed to protect businesses from flooding, we assessed how many businesses have suffered damages from floods in certain years in a certain area of Kigali. We also gathered information on how businesses were affected, how they are preparing for flooding and what support they are seeking. We developed and piloted a survey, a standardised questionnaire for gathering information on the relevance of flooding for businesses. The survey was then conducted among 350 businesses in Kigali asking business owners about their experiences with flooding in recent years. Eighty-one per cent of businesses have been affected by floods in 2013 and 2014. The annual damage costs resemble 22% of the total net profit of the businesses in the area. The most common damages were damages to goods that were to be sold and damages to buildings. The extent of past flood damages warrants action on flood risk management, both by businesses and citizens, as well as by city officials. Suitable actions range from increasing awareness about suitable protection measures to upgrading the sewage system.