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Importance: Chronic pain risk and prognosis estimates are needed to inform effective interventions., Objective: To estimate rates of chronic pain and high-impact chronic pain (HICP) incidence and persistence in US adults across demographic groups., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study examined a nationally representative cohort with 1 year of follow-up (mean [SD], 1.3 [0.3] years). Data from the 2019-2020 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) Longitudinal Cohort were used to assess the incidence rates of chronic pain across demographic groups. The cohort was created using random cluster probability sampling of noninstitutionalized civilian US adults 18 years or older in 2019. Of 21 161 baseline participants in the 2019 NHIS who were randomly chosen for follow-up, 1746 were excluded due to proxy response(s) or lack of contact information, and 334 were deceased or institutionalized. Of the 19 081 remaining, the final analytic sample of 10 415 adults also participated in the 2020 NHIS. Data were analyzed from January 2022 to March 2023., Exposures: Self-reported baseline sex, race, ethnicity, age, and college attainment., Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were the incidence rates of chronic pain and HICP, and secondary outcomes were the demographic characteristics and rates across demographic groups. A validated measure of pain status ("In the past 3 months, how often did you have pain? Would you say never, some days, most days, or every day?") yielded 3 discrete categories each year: pain free, nonchronic pain, or chronic pain (pain "most days" or "every day"). Chronic pain present in both survey years was considered persistent; HICP was defined as chronic pain that limited life or work activities on most days or every day. Rates were reported per 1000 person-years (PY) of follow-up, and age standardized based on the 2010 US adult population., Results: Among 10 415 participants included in the analytic sample, 51.7% (95% CI, 50.3%-53.1%) were female, 54.0% (95% CI, 52.4%-55.5%) were aged 18 to 49 years, 72.6% (95% CI, 70.7%-74.6%) were White, 84.5% (95% CI, 81.6%-85.3%) were non-Hispanic or non-Latino, and 70.5% (95% CI, 69.1%-71.9%) were not college graduates. Among pain-free adults in 2019, incidence rates of chronic pain and HICP in 2020 were 52.4 (95% CI, 44.9-59.9) and 12.0 (95% CI, 8.2-15.8) cases per 1000 PY, respectively. The rates of persistent chronic pain and persistent HICP in 2020 were 462.0 (95% CI, 439.7-484.3) and 361.2 (95% CI, 265.6-456.8) cases per 1000 PY, respectively., Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, the incidence of chronic pain was high compared with other chronic diseases. These results emphasize the high disease burden of chronic pain in the US adult population and the need for early management of pain before it becomes chronic.

Importance: Substantial heterogeneity and uncertainty exist in the observed associations between alcohol consumption and dementia., Objective: To assess the association between alcohol consumption and dementia and the roles of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and apolipoprotein E ε4 (APOE E4) genotype in modifying this association., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Ginkgo Evaluation of Memory Study, conducted from 2000 to 2008 among US community-dwelling participants. This study analyzed 3021 participants aged 72 years and older who were free of dementia. Data analysis was performed from 2017 to 2018., Exposures: Self-reported alcohol consumption, drinking frequency, and quantity., Main Outcomes and Measures: Using multivariable proportional hazards regression and linear mixed models, the risk of dementia and the rate of change over time in the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination were estimated., Results: Among 3021 participants, the median (interquartile range) age was 78 (76-80) years; 1395 (46.2%) were female. During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 6.0 (4.9-6.5) years, 512 cases of dementia occurred. For 7.1 to 14.0 drinks per week compared with less than 1.0 drink per week, the hazard ratios for dementia were 0.63 (95% CI, 0.38-1.06) among 2548 participants without MCI and 0.93 (95% CI, 0.47-1.84) among 473 participants with MCI. Among participants with MCI, the hazard ratio for dementia was 1.72 (95% CI, 0.87-3.40) for more than 14.0 drinks per week compared with less than 1.0 drink per week. The association of alcohol intake with dementia differed for participants with and without baseline MCI (P for interaction = .03). Among participants without MCI, daily low-quantity drinking was associated with lower dementia risk than infrequent higher-quantity drinking (hazard ratio, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.23-0.89; P = .02). Findings were consistent when stratified by sex, age, and APOE E4 genotype. Compared with drinking less than 1.0 drink per week, complete abstention (in participants without MCI) and the consumption of more than 14.0 drinks per week (in participants with MCI) were associated with lower Modified Mini-Mental State Examination scores (mean difference at follow-up compared with baseline, -0.46 point [95% CI, -0.87 to -0.04 point] and -3.51 points [95% CI, -5.75 to -1.27 points], respectively)., Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, complete abstention and consuming more than 14.0 drinks per week (compared with drinking <1.0 drink per week) were associated with lower cognitive scores among participants aged 72 years and older. Particular caution is needed among individuals with MCI who continue to drink alcohol.