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Context: Plasma human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) viral load and CD4+ cell count are used to predict prognosis of persons infected with HIV. However, whether combining these markers improves prognostic accuracy and whether they predict prognosis for injection drug users (IDUs) and nonwhite persons infected with HIV has not been extensively investigated., Objective: To evaluate plasma viral load and CD4+ cell count as prognostic indicators for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and infectious disease deaths., Design: Cohort study initiated in 1988 and 1989 with follow-up for up to 7.9 years., Participants: Injection drug users infected with HIV recruited from the community in Baltimore, Md., Main Outcome Measures: Plasma HIV-1 RNA and CD4+ cell count measured at baseline compared with time to first clinical AIDS diagnosis and death due to an infectious disease., Results: Of 522 subjects, 96% were African American, 80% were male, 96% injected drugs within the past 6 months, and the median age was 33 years. A total of 146 cases of AIDS and 119 infectious disease deaths were seen during a median follow-up period of 6.4 years. Time-fixed baseline levels of viral load and CD4+ cell count were independent predictors of progression to AIDS and infectious disease deaths, but in proportional hazards models, viral load had better predictive value than CD4+ cell count. Kaplan-Meier analysis of time to AIDS and to infectious disease deaths by viral load (<500, 500-9999, 10000-29 999, > or =30000 copies/mL) at 3 levels of CD4+ cell count (<0.20, 0.20-0.49, and > or =0.50x10(9)/L [<200,200-499, and > or =500/microL]) was reduced to a 5-stage classification scheme using a backward stepwise regression procedure. The 5-year cumulative probabilities for AIDS and infectious disease deaths ranged from 0% and 0%, respectively, for group I (viral load, <500 copies/mL; CD4+ cell count, 0.50x10(9)/L) to 81.2% and 76.1% respectively, for group V (viral load, > or =10000 copies/mL; CD4+ cell count, 0.20x10(9)/L)., Conclusions: In this study, plasma HIV-1 viral load independently and in combination with CD4+ cell count measurements provided powerful prognostic information for progression to AIDS and death caused by infectious disease in a population of predominantly African American IDUs. Combining categories of both markers provided a simple method for prognostically staging HIV disease.

Objectives: --To identify differences in purified protein derivative (PPD) tuberculin positivity and skin test anergy rates by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) serostatus, CD4+ lymphocyte count, and other risk factors in intravenous drug users (IVDUs); and to evaluate the appropriateness of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC)--recommended definition for a positive PPD tuberculin skin test result in HIV-1-seropositive patients., Design: --Nested case-control and cross-sectional analyses., Setting: --Community-based cohort of IVDUs., Patients: --Two hundred sixty HIV-1-seropositive and -seronegative IVDUs, drawn from an unselected cohort, were skin-tested for sensitivity to PPD tuberculin, mumps, and Candida antigens using the Mantoux method., Outcome Measures: --Positivity to PPD tuberculin, skin test anergy., Results: --Even using the CDC definition of an induration 5 mm or greater in diameter in HIV-1 seropositives, this group was substantially less likely to be PPD tuberculin positive than HIV-1 seronegatives (13.8% vs 25.2%; P = .02). In the HIV-1 seropositives the relative odds of being PPD positive varied depending on whether 10 mm or greater (odds ratio [OR], 0.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2 to 0.7), 5 mm or greater (OR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.2 to 0.9), or 2 mm or greater (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.4 to 1.3) was used to define a positive test result. The mean diameter induration in the HIV-1-seropositive group was 2.6 mm vs 5.4 mm in the seronegative group (P = .005). Skin test anergy (to mumps and Candida) appeared to explain the differential. Anergy was substantially higher in the HIV-1 seropositive group and increased as the CD4+ lymphocyte count fell (chi 2 for linear trend, 24.5; P less than .0001). An inverse linear trend for PPD positivity and CD4+ lymphocyte count was also observed (chi 2 for trend, 6.1; P = .01). In multivariate analyses, being 35 years of age or older and being HIV-1 seronegative were significantly associated with PPD positivity, while history of previous police arrest was of borderline significance. Only HIV-1 seropositivity was significantly associated with anergy., Conclusions: --These findings show that CDC-recommended definition of an induration 5 mm or greater in diameter for PPD tuberculin positivity in HIV-1 seropositives significantly underestimates the "true" infection rate (using the PPD positivity rate in HIV-1 seronegatives as the criterion standard). A definition of 2 mm or greater would appear to be a better cutoff for reducing misclassification in HIV-1 seropositives. This study also confirms that delayed-type hypersensitivity is seriously depressed in HIV-1 seropositive IVDUs and that anergy testing is mandatory to properly assess a negative PPD test result.

We evaluated the blood and plasma donation histories of a cohort of 2921 intravenous drug users in Baltimore, Md, and correlated these histories with their human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) serologic status, numbers of CD4 lymphocytes in the peripheral blood, and stigmata of intravenous drug use (scarred veins). Of the 793 intravenous drug users (27.1%) who had donated blood or plasma, 652 (82.2%) donated after they had started using intravenous drugs. Most subjects donated at commercial plasma centers, where they were paid $10 to $15 per donation. Although the HIV-1 seroprevalence of the entire cohort was 24.1%, the HIV-1 seroprevalence among those reporting plasma or blood donations declined progressively with time, from 17.1% in those who last donated in 1985 to 3.6% in those who last donated in 1988-1989. Many of the 437 intravenous drug users who had donated plasma or blood since 1985, when screening for HIV-1 was initiated, had not been notified and counseled about their HIV test results. Current programs to exclude individuals with a history of intravenous drug use from the plasma donor pool should be reevaluated and improved.