1. What future for banana-based farming systems in Uganda? A participatory scenario analysis
- Author
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Ronner, E., van de Ven, G.J., Nowakunda, K., Tugumisirize, J., Kayiita, J., Taulya, G., Uckert, G., Descheemaeker, K.K.E., Ronner, E., van de Ven, G.J., Nowakunda, K., Tugumisirize, J., Kayiita, J., Taulya, G., Uckert, G., and Descheemaeker, K.K.E.
- Abstract
CONTEXT: Population pressure, land scarcity and encroachment of nature reserves are challenging sustainable intensification of agriculture in Uganda. One of the main staple crops in Uganda is East African Highland banana. Area expansion and improved management have enhanced the economic performance of banana, yet at the expense of food security, environmental and social sustainability. While a transition of banana-based farming systems to a more sustainable future seems necessary, the desired future state and pathways of getting there may differ among actors involved. OBJECTIVES: Our study aimed to co-design potential transition pathways with stakeholders along the banana value chain in Uganda, and to assess the effects of these pathways on sustainability indicators at the household level. METHODS: We conducted a participatory scenario analysis consisting of: 1) stakeholders envisioning and backcasting a sustainable future for two banana-based farming systems in Uganda; 2) researchers developing and quantifying plausible future scenarios to assess their effects on locally-relevant sustainability indicators at the household level; 3) stakeholders reflecting on the results, including synergies and trade-offs between sustainability indicators. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Stakeholders' envisioned future combined with main trends influencing banana-based farming systems resulted in four contrasting scenarios: Marginalisation (stagnation compared with the reference baseline); Business as usual (extrapolation of historic trends); Intensification (including Integrated Soil Fertility Management and collective marketing of banana); and Transformation (irrigation in banana, balanced crop nutrient management, cooperatives, and increased farm sizes for some as other households leave agriculture). Compared with the current baseline situation, selected sustainability indicators food self-sufficiency and farm gross margins decreased in Marginalisation, but improved in all other scenar
- Published
- 2023