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Accurate spatial distribution of gridded gross domestic product (GDP) data is crucial for revealing regional disparities within administrative units, thus facilitating a deeper understanding of regional economic dynamics, industrial distribution, and urbanization trends. The existing GDP spatial models often rely on prediction residuals for model evaluation or utilize residual distribution to improve the final accuracy, frequently overlooking the modifiable areal unit problem within residual distribution. This paper introduces a hybrid downscaling model that combines random forest and area-to-area kriging to map gridded GDP. Employing Thailand as a case study, GDP distribution maps were generated at a 1 km spatial resolution for the year 2015 and compared with five alternative downscaling methods and an existing GDP product. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach yields higher accuracy and greater precision in detailing GDP distribution, as evidenced by the smallest mean absolute error and root mean squared error values, which stand at USD 256.458 and 699.348 ten million, respectively. Among the four different sets of auxiliary variables considered, one consistently exhibited a higher prediction accuracy. This particular set of auxiliary variables integrated classification-based variables, illustrating the advantages of incorporating such integrated variables into modeling while accounting for classification characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poverty statistics are conventionally compiled using data from socioeconomic surveys. This study examines an alternative approach to estimating poverty by investigating whether readily available geospatial data can accurately predict the spatial distribution of poverty in Thailand. In particular, the geospatial data examined in this study include the intensity of night-time light (NTL), land cover, vegetation index, land surface temperature, built-up areas, and points of interest. The study also compares the predictive performance of various econometric and machine-learning methods such as generalized least squares, neural network, random forest, and support-vector regression. Results suggest that the intensity of NTL and other variables that approximate population density are highly associated with the proportion of an area's population that are living in poverty. The random forest technique yielded the highest level of prediction accuracy among the methods considered in this study, primarily due to its capability to fit complex association structures even with small-to-medium-sized datasets. This obtained result suggests the potential applications of using publicly accessible geospatial data and machine-learning methods for timely monitoring of the poverty distribution. Moving forward, additional studies are needed to improve the predictive power and investigate the temporal stability of the relationships observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]