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Summary: The standard model describing the fluctuations of mRNA numbers in single cells is the telegraph model which includes synthesis and degradation of mRNA, and switching of the gene between active and inactive states. While commonly used, this model does not describe how fluctuations are influenced by the cell cycle phase, cellular growth and division, and other crucial aspects of cellular biology. Here, we derive the analytical time-dependent solution of an extended telegraph model that explicitly considers the doubling of gene copy numbers upon DNA replication, dependence of the mRNA synthesis rate on cellular volume, gene dosage compensation, partitioning of molecules during cell division, cell-cycle duration variability, and cell-size control strategies. Based on the time-dependent solution, we obtain the analytical distributions of transcript numbers for lineage and population measurements in steady-state growth and also find a linear relation between the Fano factor of mRNA fluctuations and cell volume fluctuations. We show that generally the lineage and population distributions in steady-state growth cannot be accurately approximated by the steady-state solution of extrinsic noise models, i.e. a telegraph model with parameters drawn from probability distributions. This is because the mRNA lifetime is often not small enough compared to the cell cycle duration to erase the memory of division and replication. Accurate approximations are possible when this memory is weak, e.g. for genes with bursty expression and for which there is sufficient gene dosage compensation when replication occurs.

Summary: The Chemical Master Equation (CME) provides an accurate description of stochastic biochemical reaction networks in well-mixed conditions, but it cannot be solved analytically for most systems of practical interest. Although Monte Carlo methods provide a principled means to probe system dynamics, the large number of simulations typically required can render the estimation of molecule number distributions and other quantities infeasible. In this article, we aim to leverage the representational power of neural networks to approximate the solutions of the CME and propose a framework for the Neural Estimation of Stochastic Simulations for Inference and Exploration (Nessie). Our approach is based on training neural networks to learn the distributions predicted by the CME from relatively few stochastic simulations. We show on biologically relevant examples that simple neural networks with one hidden layer can capture highly complex distributions across parameter space, thereby accelerating computationally intensive tasks such as parameter exploration and inference.

Summary: Recent advances in single-cell technologies have enabled time-resolved measurements of the cell size over several cell cycles. These data encode information on how cells correct size aberrations so that they do not grow abnormally large or small. Here, we formulate a piecewise deterministic Markov model describing the evolution of the cell size over many generations, for all three cell size homeostasis strategies (timer, sizer, and adder). The model is solved to obtain an analytical expression for the non-Gaussian cell size distribution in a cell lineage; the theory is used to understand how the shape of the distribution is influenced by the parameters controlling the dynamics of the cell cycle and by the choice of cell tracking protocol. The theoretical cell size distribution is found to provide an excellent match to the experimental cell size distribution of E. coli lineage data collected under various growth conditions.