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In the present paper, a probabilistic propagation model for assessing the uncertainty of the effective thermal conductivity was developed based on a combined conduction and radiation heat transfer model of a ceramic fiber blanket composite. The Monte Carlo technique was used to cope with the uncertainties in the material density, radiative properties, and boundary temperatures observed in experimental tests. The calculated effective thermal-conductivity distribution for the sample was compared with the experimental measurements performed on multiple samples, and the predicted mean values were in good agreement with the measured data. The result validates the thermal predictive model and demonstrates the suitability of the stochastic model containing statistical distributions in the input variables. Statistical information also indicates that the uncertainty effect can be enlarged at high temperatures. Response sensitivity analysis between the random inputs and the effective thermal conductivity demonstrates that the randomness in the hot-side temperature, the cold-side temperature, and extinction coefficient of the sample has a significant influence on the variability of thermal-conductivity properties. The extinction coefficient becomes more and more important with an increase of temperature due to the dominant radiative heat transfer contribution at high temperature. The analysis provides good insight into the scattering control in the experimental measurement and theoretical prediction of the effective thermal conductivity of a ceramic fiber composite. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]