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Abstract: This paper studies relations between bankfull discharge, lateral cross section variation and the incoming flow and sediment condition in the Lower Yellow River using measured data from 1950 to 2003. Since 1950 the bankfull discharge has obviously decreased and the ratio of channel width to flow depth has increased. The critical annual average incoming sediment coefficient (defined as the ratio of sediment concentration to discharge) and discharge at the Huayuankou station are approximately 0.012 and 1,850 m3 s−1, respectively, for no accumulative deposition occurring in the reach from Huayuankou to Lijin. On this basis, a mathematical model is used to study the scale of the main channel in the Lower Yellow River and its corresponding bankfull discharge under possible incoming flow and sediment conditions in the near future. The main factors influencing the scale of the main channel are analyzed, and measures to shape and maintain a medium-sized channel are discussed. The results show the effect of various water and sediment combinations released from the Xiaolangdi Reservoir on the shaping of the main channel and suggest that under recent incoming flow and sediment conditions, it is possible to shape and maintain a medium-sized channel with a bankfull discharge of approximate 4,000 m3 s−1. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]