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The accidental leakage of gaseous hydrogen from hydrogen refueling station facilities has the potential to result in a large fire and explosion catastrophe. The ability to forecast the spatiotemporal evolution of hydrogen plumes in real-time is crucial for monitoring the distribution of plume concentrations and mitigating the risk of fire and explosion. The utilization of deep learning has been extensively employed in a diverse range of spatiotemporal forecasting tasks. However, these approaches encounter limitations in accurately quantifying uncertainty when predicting spatiotemporal concentrations and plume boundaries. This research paper introduces a novel model called DPSTNN_H 2 Evolution, which is a deep probabilistic spatial-temporal neural network designed for forecasting the spatiotemporal evolution of hydrogen plumes. The benchmark dataset is constructed by the implementation of numerical simulations pertaining to the inadvertent leak of hydrogen within a hydrogen refueling station. The findings of the study indicate that incorporating quantified uncertainty information might enhance the precision of plume boundaries and the resilience of plume concentrations when predicting the spatiotemporal development of hydrogen. By employing Monte Carlo sampling with a sample size of m = 100 and a dropout rate of p = 0.1 , the model demonstrates the ability to provide real-time inference for 10 instances of plumes, while maintaining a high level of accuracy with R2 = 0.9829. In comparison to the current state-of-the-art model, the proposed model demonstrates superior accuracy and robustness in forecasting the spatiotemporal evolution of hydrogen plumes. In general, our proposed model has the potential to serve as a dependable option for the development of a digital twin for emergency management of hydrogen refueling stations. • Probabilistic spatial-temporal neural network model for hydrogen plume evolutions is proposed. • Normalized uncertainty contours and uncertainty intervals to improve accuracy and robustness. • Numerical experiment of hydrogen leakage and dispersion in refueling station are conducted. • Optimal hyper-parameters of the proposed model are determined • Comparison between the proposed model with point-estimation based model is conducted [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrogen release and dispersion from hydrogen refuelling stations have the potential to cause explosion disaster and bring significant causalities and economic losses to the surroundings. Real-time spatial hydrogen plume concentration prediction is essential for the quick emergency response planning to dissipate such flammable vapor cloud and prevent explosion disaster. Deep learning approaches have recently been applied to real-time gas release and dispersion modeling, however, are 'over-confident' for spatial plume concentration and boundary estimation, which could not support the robust decision-makings. This study proposes a hybrid deep probability learning-based spatial hydrogen plume concentration prediction model, namely DPL_H 2 Plume by integrating deep learning and Variational Bayesian Inference. Numerical model of hydrogen release and dispersion from hydrogen refuelling station is built to construct the benchmark dataset. By using such dataset, two pre-defined parameters, namely Monte Carlo sampling number m = 300 and dropout probability p = 0.1 are determined to ensure the model's tradeoff between inference accuracy and efficiency. Comparison between our proposed model and the state-of-the-art model is also conducted. The results demonstrate that our model exhibits a competitive accuracy of R 2 = 0.97 as well as an inference time 3.32 s. In addition, our model gives the comprehensive estimations including not only spatial hydrogen plume concentration but also its uncertainty. Also, our model provides the more accurate estimation at plume boundary compared to the state-of-the-art model. Overall, our proposed model could provide reliable alternative for constructing a digital twin for emergency management of hydrogen refuelling station. • Deep probabilistic learning-based hydrogen plume prediction model is proposed. • Optimal hyperparameters of variational Bayesian inference are determined. • Model accurately predicts real-time spatial hydrogen plume concentration given scenario-related parameters. • Model predicts additional uncertainty information for comprehensive emergency decision-makings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]