Search

• European CCS plans imply >9% annual growth in injection rates from 2030 to 2050. • The resource base of either offshore Norway or the UK alone can meet scaleup needs. • Logistic models provide a simple framework to evaluate European CO 2 storage scale-up. • Growth models can be used to constrain output from energy systems models. As a part of climate change mitigation plans in Europe, CO 2 storage scenarios have been reported for the United Kingdom and the European Union with injection rates reaching 75 – 330 MtCO 2 yr−1 by 2050. However, these plans are not constrained by geological properties or growth rates with precedent in the hydrocarbon industry. We use logistic models to identify growth trajectories and the associated storage resource base consistent with European targets. All of the targets represent ambitious growth, requiring average annual growth in injection rates of 9% – 15% from 2030 to 2050. Modelled plans are not constrained by CO 2 storage availability and can be accommodated by the resources of offshore UK or Norway alone. Only if the resource base is significantly less, around 10% of current estimates, does storage availability limit mitigation plans. We further demonstrate the use of the models to define 2050 rate targets within conservative bounds of both growth rate and storage resource needs. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]