Search

This paper examines the four‐way linkages between innovation, trade openness, financial development and economic growth using panel‐VAR approach for 11 European countries over the period 2001‐2016. Most importantly, the findings revealed that there is a unidirectional relationship between economic growth and financial development, between trade and economic growth and between innovation and financial development. The findings also revealed a negative relationship between innovation and economic growth and between trade and economic growth. The paper concludes that further regulation of financial systems and the quality of funding are important ingredients to foster economic development. The paper also concludes that country‐specific characteristics can play an important role in fostering innovation and productivity. Furthermore, policymakers should improve institutional quality and improve the regulatory environment in order to benefit more from trade openness. Also, policy makers need to use innovation incentives for local companies in order to counteract the negative effects induced by market opening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the extent to which commodity prices can predict economic growth, the growth exposure of the countries to specific commodity group, and whether the country stage of development matters for growth dependency on commodities. We use a novel time‐varying mixed‐frequency vector autoregressive model to jointly estimate causality between monthly commodity prices and quarterly economic growth for the period from January 1980 to March 2020. Our findings suggest that growth dependency on commodities varies over time and across different synthetic measures, but in general solid evidence of predictability is determined. The overall commodity index shows better performance in predicting economic growth than the segregated proxies of either fuel or non‐fuel commodities in developed economies. However, the overall commodity index is as effective as the fuel index in predicting economic growth for their developing counterparts. We develop a new index of global commodity growth connectivity (GCGCI) to determine the economic growth dependency on commodities over time. Our results show that economic growth dependency on commodities has increased at least three times with financialization of commodity markets. The GCGCI for all commodities reveals a higher growth dependency on commodities in developing countries than developed ones in the post‐financialization period. Interestingly, we find that growth decreases its reliance on fuel commodities in both developed and developing countries after financialization of commodity markets. Our findings bear implications for policymakers to design stabilization policies in an attempt to protect economies vulnerable to commodity price shocks and lay the foundation for sustainable economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China‐Pakistan Free Trade Agreement (CPFTA) increased trade between China and Pakistan, however, it also swelled Pakistan trade deficit with China. The empirical findings of this paper suggest that CPFTA positively contribute to Pakistan exports to China and her imports from China but the increase in Pakistan imports was far greater than Pakistan exports after CPFTA. Resultantly, Pakistan's trade deficit with China increased and Pakistan's growth hampered. Constant market share analysis suggests that a better understanding of the Chinese market, efficient utilization of tariff lines and focus on products of the comparative edge are important for Pakistan to benefit from CPFTA. Otherwise, CPFTA is counterproductive for Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the relationship between public investment and private investment in a sample of 21 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries between 2000 and 2019. Using panel data nonlinear threshold regression models, the empirical results show that there exist threshold levels for the share of public investment in private investment, the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate and the real interest rate that affect the relationship between public and private investment. All estimates support a crowding‐in effect of public investment on private investment. In terms of policy prescriptions, by increasing public investment, OECD governments can expect positive spillovers to private investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies have shown that external capital account liberalisation can boost capital inflows and augment economic development. Nevertheless, in the case of developing and emerging economies (DEE), adverse currency fluctuations could hamper external competitiveness due to relative price differences creating currency overvaluation, which might not be mitigated via financial openness alone. Therefore, this paper uses annual panel data for 35 DEEs over 40 years to explore whether financial openness of countries can help preserve their external price competitiveness, in the presence of greater trade openness and better institutional quality. Our findings suggest that financial openness alone does not aid export competitiveness, unless it is supported by greater trade openness. In addition, both cross country and regional analyses show that financial openness can benefit economies in maintaining their export competitiveness if they have stronger quality of institutions. Our results remain robust when we estimate the role of financial openness and institutional quality jointly on external competitiveness across regions, and during the pre‐ and post‐crisis periods. We conclude that financial openness alone is not sufficient to improve external competitiveness of an emerging economy, but it does help in the presence of greater trade openness or better institutions, enabling reduction in trade costs and thereby making these countries more price‐competitive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The high level of debt among households outside the top end of the income distribution has led many economists to assert that household debt has been an important component of the increase in income inequality in the United States. In addition, the yield spread provides information about the overall condition of the economy and may also be tied into the distribution of income. The paper's results show that increases in the yield spread and household debt correspond with increases in top income shares, resulting in increases in income inequality. However, as household debt and income inequality increase, the yield spread contracts, which suggests future economic contraction. Thus, rising inequality may signal future economic weakness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper deals with the growth rate in Kenya, examining its statistical properties and investigating the factors that may explain the slow growth rates observed during the last 50 years. The results show that Kenyan growth rate is unstable with non‐linearities and long range dependence structures. We also investigate what might explain these features. In this regard, we conclude that the development of anomalous political institutions in Kenya in the decades after independence is the root cause that has led to subsequent weak economic institutions and macroeconomic mismanagement and the vulnerability of the Kenyan economy to domestic and external shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effect of capital account liberalization on the frequency of stock market crashes. We use de jure and de facto measures of capital account liberalization and employ a negative binomial random effect model to analyse the relationship. Using a sample of 65 countries for 1973–2016, we show that with restricted capital account liberalization, an increase in capital flows leads to a decrease in stock market crashes. With a more liberalized capital account convertibility, higher capital flows lead to a rise in stock market crashes. The main key finding supports the notion that free and unregulated capital flows induce more volatility in the stock market, and crashes in these markets are more likely to happen. These results are also robust to different sub‐samples comprising of high‐income OECD countries and non‐OECD countries. Our results are also robust to change in the specification of stock market crashes and changes in capital flows' specification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a unique hand‐collected dataset of 1,251 European Union banks and 20,850 foreign affiliates hosted in 154 countries, this paper investigates how both host country and home country regulations affect the decision on where and how to go abroad in developing countries as opposed to developed countries. We find that banks prefer high‐income countries with numerous activity restrictions and weaker supervision but less developed countries with less restrictions and stronger supervision. In all cases, they avoid locations with stronger capital regulation than at home. Regarding the choice of foreign organizational form (branches versus subsidiaries), banks rather operate subsidiaries in both high and middle‐income countries with stringent entry requirements but prefer branches in developing countries with stringent capital requirements and greater supervisory power. Our findings contribute to the literature examining bank internationalization and have several policy implications for regulatory reforms in developing and developed countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adverse impacts of climate change have occupied central theme of many policy initiatives. This paper investigated the impact of economic development, fossil fuel consumptions and population density on CO2 in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh using annual data over the period 1971–2014. We have applied panel Autoregressive distributed lags model to estimate the long‐run dynamics and Vector error correction model specified Granger causality test for finding the causality direction. Using three multivariate equations model, the empirical outcome of our study has established key associations that have crucial policy implications. Firstly, the results of auto‐regressive distributed lags (ARDL) confirmed the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis that the relationship between CO2 and economic development is U‐shaped. Moreover, fossil fuel consumption and population density have a positive impact on CO2 emission in the long run. VECM test evidence suggests that short‐run causalities from economic development to CO2, population density to CO2 and fossil fuel consumption to CO2 exist. Secondly, CO2 has a negative impact on economic development while the impacts of fossil fuel, FDI and total exports on economic development have been significantly positive in the long run. In short run, CO2, fossil fuel consumption and FDI Granger cause economic development. Lastly, CO2 emission negatively influences population density while economic development positively affects population density in long run. Moreover, short‐run causalities from economic development to population density and CO2 to population density exit. For policy drives, efficient and low carbon emission technologies should be used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the variables that moderate the impact of financial development on economic growth based on theoretical and empirical evidences. We show that financial and economic development, institutions and macroeconomic stability are the fundamental variables that moderate the finance‐growth nexus. Specifically, higher levels of financial and economic development, institutional quality and macroeconomic stability promote the impact of financial development on economic growth, while lower levels of these variables could have the opposite effect. We also show that too much finance is deleterious to economic growth, suggesting the existence of a threshold level of financial development beyond which further finance inhibits, rather than enhances growth. The economic implication of this study is that a stable macroeconomic environment, higher level of institutional quality, optimum financial and economic development are necessary conditions for finance to accelerate growth. Hence, countries that want to promote economic growth through the financial sector should give adequate priority to these variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of financial sector development on economic growth is among the main debatable issue in economics and policymaking. Thus, by using different financial sector dimensions, this research tried to look at the effect of financial sector development on the economic growth of 25 sub‐Saharan Africa countries for the period 2010–2017. Precisely, three dynamic panel data models that look at the effect of financial sector depth, access, and efficiency on economic growth were estimated by two‐step system GMM estimation. In this research, credit extended to the private sector per GDP, commercial bank branch per 100,000 adult population, and Return to assets were used as a proxy and measures for financial sector depth, access, and efficiency respectively. Accordingly, the results revealed that financial sector depth, access, and efficiency have a positive and statistically significant effect on these countries' economic growth. Therefore, it is recommended that the concerned bodies that broadening the depth of financial institutions by giving more credit to the private sector is essential. Besides, the financial institutions will have to be expanded to increase their accessibility to the mass and take some measures to promote their efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the impact of financial development on economic growth in a sample of 32 Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. The countries were grouped into four sub‐regions, and data were collected for the period 1990–2016 on finance and growth indicators on an annual basis. In the estimation procedure, panel estimation and dynamic panel techniques were used. When the disaggregated components of financial development variables were used, findings, among others, reveal the role of credit to the private sector by banks (CPB) even though mixed, to have more impact on growth followed by broad money (BM) and liquidity liability (LL). However, an aggregated index of the financial development indicators via principal component analysis and their simultaneous interaction with human capital improvement brought about a greater positive impact on growth throughout the sub‐regions and the entire SSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High levels of private investment are correlated with higher economic growth and development across countries, but questions remain whether this relationship is sustainable given the high levels of exchange rate uncertainty in developing economies albeit other macroeconomic instabilities. This paper examines empirically the impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on private investment in Ghana. We, thus, apply the accelerator theory to investigate the contributing effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on the movement of private investment from the economic standpoint of an import‐dependent economy such as Ghana. The study employs annual time series data from 1980 to 2016. Moreover, we adopt the autoregressive distributed lag model of cointegration where we find evidence of a long‐run positive relationship between positive private investment and real exchange rate uncertainty as well as trade openness. The short‐run evidence provides a confirmation of the impact of inflation, trade, and real exchange rate uncertainty on private investment. Specifically, our results show that there is a positive pass‐through effect from real exchange rate uncertainty to private investment decision in resource allocation. Shocks from lending rate and terms of trade were found to exhibit negative effects on private investment in the short and long run. As a matter of policy, it is imperative for policymakers in developing economies to consider the effect of exchange rate and terms of trade associated with bilateral trade and investment‐related agreements to minimize the effects of contemporaneous shocks from uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses an intertemporal optimizing model with country-specific risk premium to evaluate the real effects of inflation in a small open developing economy. In the model, a central bank targets inflation, and the consumer requires real balances in advance for consumption spending. We show that a positive inflation shock (either due to growth in money supply or depreciation of the domestic currency) yields a decrease in real output and consumption-as inflation creates a tax wedge in the intratemporal condition between consumption and leisure-leading to a decrease in the stock of real debt in domestic currency. Employing these theoretical predictions and using annual data from a set of six developing countries (Chile, Ghana, Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia and Thailand), we estimate a sign-restriction based structural vector autoregression model along with a panel vector autoregression model for robustness analysis. The empirical results support the trade-off of inflation with reference to the key real variables including the external debt position, which is a significant result given the ambiguity in the empirical literature as to whether governments can escape from debt crisis via higher inflation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses regime-switching techniques to examine the similarities of GDP growth-cycle features of 10 East Asian countries. A third regime of rapid growth is relevant for most countries. In Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, there was no secular slowdown in growth since the rapid-growth regime re-emerged at some stage. Japan is special since it shares each of its features with different countries, while China shares almost all its features with most countries. Finally, the same countries that were correlated with Japan in the 1980s have been linked with China since the 1990s. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyse the macroeconomic record of dollarized economies. In particular, we investigate whether, as its supporters claim, dollarization is associated with lower inflation and faster growth. We analyse this issue by using a matching estimator technique developed in the training evaluation literature. Our findings suggest that inflation has been significantly lower in dollarized nations than in non-dollarized ones. We also find that dollarized nations have had a lower rate of economic growth than non-dollarized ones. Finally, we find that macroeconomic volatility is not significantly different across dollarized and non-dollarized economies. We conjecture that the lower rate of economic growth in dollarized countries is due, at least in part, to these countries' difficulties in accommodating external disturbances, such as major terms of trade and capital flows shocks. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we evaluate the contributions of human capital and financial development to economic growth in a panel of 82 countries covering 21 years. The main innovations in the paper stem from the fact that we use a translog production function as a framework for estimating the relationships among economic growth and factor inputs. The factor inputs considered are: labour, physical capital, human capital (deriving from endogenous growth theory), and a monetary factor (money or credit, deriving from the theory of money in the production function). The translog production function enables a richer specification of the relationships among growth and factor inputs, than the more commonly used Cobb-Douglas approach, as it allows for interactions among factor inputs. We find significant evidence of such interactions, suggesting that studies which ignore such interactions are likely to be misleading. Overall, our results suggest that financial development is at least as important as human capital in the growth process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a state-space model, this paper examines time variation in the predictive regressions for stock returns, dividend growth and consumption growth. Moreover, we linked time variation explicitly to movements in economic factors that can account for risk and cash flow. Results support the view that stock return predictability is enhanced when risk is high (negative growth, higher volatility and positive growth/return covariance). In contrast, dividend growth and consumption growth predictability is enhanced during economic expansions. These results are supported by subsample analysis and a vector autoregressive approach. Furthermore, these latter exercises may uncover differences in the stock return predictability relationship when viewed over different time horizons. Overall, the paper contributes to the literature by highlighting the different nature of returns predictability, which arises largely through the risk channel, and dividend and consumption growth predictability, which arise through the cash flow channel. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although there are several direct and indirect theoretical channels through which foreign capital flows may affect domestic investment, empirical evidence remains inconclusive. In this paper, we employ a VARX framework to assess the impact of equity foreign portfolio investment (EFPI) on domestic investment growth, employing monthly series for the Brazilian economy. Our results suggest that EFPI played a nonnegligible role in explaining aggregate investment fluctuations, but only before the 2008 global financial crisis. After the crisis, a period marked first by a shift in economic policy in 2008–2009, with substantial increases in government intervention, followed by deterioration in the institutional outlook and political stability in 2014–2015, mostly against the backdrop of the Petrobras corruption scandal, unexpected shocks to EFPI no longer led any real effects on investment growth. Although, in general, our results vouch for beneficial effects of equity capital flows on investment, this virtuous relationship is likely disturbed by interventionist policies and political unrest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the linkages of stock markets across the USA, Japan and six Asian developing countries: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand over the period 1 January 1993 to 31 December 2012. The volatility spillover is modelled through an asymmetric multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic model. We find significant unidirectional shock and volatility spillovers from the US market to both the Japanese and the Asian emerging markets. It is also found that the volatility spillovers between the US market and the Asian markets are stronger and bidirectional during the Asian financial crisis. Further, during the last 5 years, the linkages between the Japanese market and the Asian emerging markets became more apparent. Our paper contributes to the literature by examining both the long-run and the short-run periods and focusing on shock and volatility spillovers rather than return spillovers, which have been the primary focus of most other studies. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using annual data, the paper studies the time-series evidence regarding the allocation of fluctuations in the exchange rate between demand components, real growth and price inflation in a sample of developing and advanced countries. Subsequently, cross-country correlations establish the relevance of fluctuations in imports to the pass-through channel of exchange rate fluctuations to economic activity. Further, the evidence evaluates the direct effects of fluctuations in the nominal values of imports on price inflation and real growth. Cross-country regressions evaluate the effects of variation in the average and variability of exchange rate fluctuations on import growth. Subsequently, variation in indicators of macroeconomic performance (real growth, price inflation and the growth of private consumption and investment) is evaluated with respect to variation in the exchange rate and/or import growth. In developing countries, the evidence indicates the relevance of fluctuations in import growth to the transmission mechanism of exchange rate fluctuations to the macroeconomy. Where this relationship dominates, fluctuations in the exchange rate are no longer significant to the difference in macroeconomic indicators, having controlled for variation in import growth across countries. In advanced countries, import fluctuations may be transmitted to economic activity, further to fluctuations in the exchange rate, in line with variations in terms of trade. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT In this paper, we construct a single composite financial stress indicator (FSI), which aims to predict developments in the real economy in the euro area. Our FSI was shown to perform better than the Euro STOXX 50 volatility index for the recent banking crisis and the euro-area sovereign debt crisis and to be able to serve as an early warning indicator for negative impacts of financial stress on the real economy. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From a regional entrepreneurial ecosystem perspective, we theoretically interpret and empirically testify the mutual promotions between inclusive finance, entrepreneurship, and development. To do so, a two‐period overlapping generation model is introduced to interpret the mechanism, and then a panel vector auto‐regression model based on 31 provinces (and municipalities) in China from 2005 to 2016 is constructed. We find that: (a) Due to the development‐promoting ability, self‐reinforcing ability and multiplying effect, it is possible and worthy to construct a sustainable developing system. (b) However, an insufficient human capital endowment might be a critical obstacle, which is revealed as a precondition of this sustainable system. (c) Moreover, it is necessary to promote sustainable development of financial inclusion and entrepreneurship, due to the lack of directly promoting effect from economic development. (d) Thus, governmental complement is indispensable because of polarization led by the endowed wealth gap, and continuous promotion is appealed due to the transforming lag of mutual promoting feedback. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We argue that, in improving the efficient allocation of resources, financial sector development should dampen the appreciation effect of capital inflows. Using dynamic panel data techniques, the paper finds that the exchange rate appreciation effect of FDI inflows is indeed attenuated when financial and capital markets are larger and more active. The main implication of these results is that one of the main dangers associated with large capital inflows in emerging markets-the destabilization of macroeconomic management due to a sizeable appreciation of the real exchange rate-can be mitigated partly by means of developing a deep financial sector. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports estimates of an econometric model of the determinants of OFCs' broad money holding and M4 lending to OFCs. This is of interest both as providing information about a component of UK money and credit aggregates and because it provides some evidence of the link between financial activity and growth of the real economy. We model the long-run equilibria for money holding and lending to this sector as being driven by GDP, wealth, the return to financial services and various interest spreads. The dynamics of OFCs' money and lending are shown to be interdependent. We then consider the evidence for interactions between OFCs and other sectors. Our results indicate that M4 lending to OFCs is significantly related to aggregate investment in the long run, but is largely unrelated to the spending of households. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical investigation of the link between financial development and economic growth has established that finance exerts a significant and positive influence on growth. This paper extends this line of analysis by examining the contribution that financial development makes to poverty reduction in low-income countries. The results reported support the contention that financial sector development policy can contribute to achieving the goal of poverty reduction in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines investment decisions in an economy with two financial markets: an official market, which is subject to rationing due to an interest rate ceiling, and an unrestricted market, with a higher interest rate. In this context, the long-run equilibrium aggregate capital stock is unambiguously higher than in the absence of the interest rate ceiling, even though its relationship with the ceiling is non-monotonic. Empirical results using aggregate panel data from 52 developing countries for the period 1974-1988 provide support for the model, particularly in economies that have some access to international capital markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the factors influencing the liquidity allocation between local and foreign dual listings. Based on a comprehensive data set covering the period between 2001 and 2011, empirical results suggest that the fraction of trading in the foreign listing decreases with a higher degree of stock market integration measured as the stock price correlation with the world market. Furthermore, the analysis of individual cross-listings reveals that both an improvement of a country's state of economic development and a better regulatory environment significantly affect the allocation of trading. While an improvement in economic development increases both local and foreign liquidity, a strengthening of regulatory standards leads to a decrease in trading volumes at foreign exchanges. Finally, the liquidity share in the foreign listing is found to decrease over time, a trend that turns out to be driven by developing rather than by developed markets. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the facts on existing and future prospects of regional trade integration in South Asia in the backdrop of multilateral trade agreements. The study applies trade intensity index of four largest South Asian countries (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) to estimates the short‐ and long‐run trade co‐integration in autoregressive multilateral framework. The results highlights that long‐run trade complementarities are found between the trade of Pakistan and Sri Lanka, while short‐run trade complementarities exist between India and Bangladesh, and between India and Sri Lanka. Pakistan and Bangladesh are found close trade competitors in South Asia in short run. The findings are important for policy implication which highlights how to bridge the untapped regional trade integration in South Asia. If trade barriers are overcome, the greater degree of trade openness can play vital role in achieving balanced regional economic development. India being the largest economy can play key role in striving the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) process for pursuing its objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the association between gender gap and economic progress. Using a panel VAR study as well as a comprehensive gender gap index and its sub‐indices from the World Economic Forum, the study confirms the existence of bidirectional Granger causality between gender gap and economic progress, for OECD countries and developing countries. On the one hand, economic progress encourages equity for both sexes. On the other hand, gender equity helps developing nations prosper and significantly improve their human capital, which, in turn, drives long‐run economic progress. By contrast, closing the gender gap negatively affects OECD output. For the sample of developing countries, the aforementioned results are robust to sub‐indices measured by gender gap in economic participation as well as opportunity, educational attainment, and political empowerment. We recommend that gender policies specifically aim at eliminating gaps in female education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capital inflows to emerging markets in recent years have generated opportunities for economic development and problems for economic management. The exchange market crisis in Mexico and the lingering negative impact on the Mexican economy have led to renewed calls for greater official participation and control of international capital movements. In fact, many developing countries have imposed controls designed to reduce or alter the composition of capital inflows. In this paper we review familiar arguments about capital controls and attempt to evaluate a 'new' distortion that might justify government interventions in international capital markets. The idea is straight forward. Emerging markets inherited distorted domestic credit markets from a model of economic development that placed the state in the centre of financial intermediation. Liberalization of these domestic markets is proceeding but far from complete. During the transition, incentives can emerge that make capital inflows welfare reducing. Free deposit insurance is an obvious distortion. But less obvious chains of implicit 'insurance' can also cause problems. We argue that fixed exchange rates and solvency can be a deadly combination for governments with a history of heavy involvement with domestic financial markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent evidence shows that institutions figure prominently in explaining the 'Lucas paradox'. Using a threshold regression model, we extend this evidence to a situation where institutions index the relationship between foreign capital inflows and economic growth. We find strong and robust evidence that portfolio equity (including foreign direct investment) and debt inflows have positive effects on growth only in countries with high-quality institutions. Countries that fall below the threshold level of institutional quality record either insignificant or negative effects. This paper provides a possible explanation on the so-called Lucas paradox. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the main features of the banking and financial sector in 10 new European Union members, and then examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in these countries by estimating a dynamic panel model over the period 1994-2007. The evidence suggests that the stock and credit markets are still underdeveloped in these economies and that their contribution to economic growth is limited owing to a lack of financial depth. By contrast, a more efficient banking sector is found to have accelerated growth. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper employs Hong's (2001) causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance tests to investigate the spillovers between business confidence and stock returns for the four economically distressed Southern European countries, namely Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. The sample uses monthly data and covers the period from January 1988 to December 2010. Our causality-in-mean results indicate that there is feedback relationship between stock returns and business confidence in Portugal. The direction of causality-in-mean runs from business confidence to stock returns in Italy, but it is in the reverse direction in the case of Spain. Nevertheless, there is still evidence of a contemporaneous interaction between business confidence and stock returns in both Italy and Spain. On the other hand, causality-in-variance indicate the presence of volatility spillovers from business confidence to stock returns in Portugal, while a causal relationship is found in the current month in the case of Italy. Business confidence causes stock returns only in the mean in Greece. These results indicate that the stock market and business confidence relationship has its own idiosyncratic properties and that the stock market reactions to the current macroeconomic environment and expectations about the future developments might evolve differently in each country. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between equity market valuations (dividend‐price ratio) using a dynamic factor model. The factor model decomposes each country's market valuation into a global, region‐specific, and country‐specific component. We find that the amount of variation explained by the factors is related to economic development indicators. Specifically, the valuations in the most developed (emerging) countries are primarily driven by the global (local) component of valuation ratios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study seeks to find out whether financial structure matters in economic development. Using quarterly data from 1998 to 2018 from Ghana and with auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL)‐bound testing technique in the study found that financial structure is irrelevant for long‐term economic growth in Ghana. The finding of concurs with the complementarity view between the banks and the exchange and rejects that both subsectors are substitutes since financial services indicators were significance in influencing economic growth. In this vein the study concludes on the importance of financial services rather than structure. Based on these observations, the study recommends that policymakers should grow the synergy between the banks and the markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Historically, the development of the financial sector has been an indispensable driver of economic growth. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, there is a pressing need to reassess the role of the financial sector in the determination of economic growth. Using a dynamic panel framework, our analysis covers 34 European and Commonwealth of Independent States economies for the period 1998–2014 and controls for the role of macroeconomic and institutional variables. Our evidence suggests that the potential benefits of the financial sector finance may have dramatically reversed in recent years, resulting in “un‐creative destruction.” The results suggest, tentatively, that there has been a severance of the link between the financial sector and the real economy. The results, however, vary according to the level of economic development across the European and Commonwealth of Independent States economies. In the case of developing market economies, the financial intermediation proxies are not significant in explaining economic growth. The effect of changes in investment expenditure, the money supply, wages, unit labour costs, and trade openness is found to be strong and in line with a priori expectations across all country samples. Notably, government consumption is also found to be a significant driver of economic growth, except in the developing market economies in the period following the Great Recession. In line with the growing consensus in other research areas, we provide evidence of a robust role for the institutional framework proxied by the quality of governance in determining economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Starting from the premise that the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the economies of the host countries is different from one economy to another, the aim is to evaluate the impact of a set of economic and social indicators on FDI and net income (% GDP–Gross Domestic Product) in emerging, ex‐socialist countries of the European Union. Using econometric models, we analysed the relationship between the evolution of the net FDI inflows and a number of statistical indicators. Our findings proved that there are similarities between the countries analysed, in terms of the evolution of net FDI inflows, with some differences being recorded for Hungary, where the evolution of net FDI inflows has major fluctuations. We found that the countries present both similarities and differences in terms of variables that affect FDI. The FDI net inflows (% GDP) are in seven, out of nine economies, positively influenced by GDP, as it follows: Bulgaria, Lithuania and Slovenia are FDI attractive by an increasing GDP rate, while Latvia, Poland and Romania react to a better GDP per capita. Hungary is the only one that is positively influenced by both GDP rate and GDP per capita. Moreover, a decreasing corruption perception index, country risk rating, income tax (% of commercial profit) and other taxes paid by companies (% commercial profit) can positively influence the inflows of FDIs in some of the analysed countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prevailing notion for this research is anchored on determining the magnitude of alliances as trade determinants. Alliances are segregated into defence pact, non‐aggressive alliance and entente, which additionally integrates as trade cost in a gravity model. The Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood technique is adopted for the analysis with country pair‐effects exploited. Even though literature acknowledged three different kinds of alliance formation, the homogenous effects as trade cost have not been previously examined. Authors found that alliances' response to bilateral trade is homogenous irrespective of conceptualization and operationalism. All categories of alliance positively influence bilateral trade but could be more effective as trade determinant when rooted in a regional trade agreement. The result is more convincing in the NATO sample than the ECOWAS sample, which could not be unconnected with the level of economic and technological development in both cases. Militarized inter‐state conflict should be discouraged irrespective of the cause due to its negative effect on bilateral trade, especially in the region of its occurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This contribution investigates the relationships between financial development, trade openness and economic growth on a panel of four North African countries (Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria and Egypt), over a 5‐year period from 1991 to 2015. In fact, using the generalized method of moment (GMM) in a panel data analysis, we found strong evidence of a positive link between trade openness and economic growth. Moreover, we found that trade openness appears to be working as a complement to financial development and that its effect is more pronounced in the presence of the financial development variable. Therefore, the policy implications of this study appeared clear. Hence, improvement efforts need to be driven by local‐level reforms to ensure the development of domestic financial system and take full advantage of the technology transfer induced by international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The International Journal of Finance & Economics (IJFE) contributed substantially to its research domain between 1996 and 2021. We conduct a comprehensive bibliometric study to examine IJFE's evolution. We use various science mapping approaches to study its performance, intellectual structure, and determinants of academic influence. IJFE's contributions and impact have grown markedly. Authors affiliated with the United Kingdom and the United States are its most frequent contributors. Authors linked with the International Monetary Fund and the City, University of London top the journal's list of contributors. The keyword 'exchange rate/real exchange rate' is the most frequently used in IJFE articles, followed by 'economic growth.' IJFE's knowledge structure consists of eight themes: (1) exchange rate mechanism, currency crisis, and capital flows, (2) stock market volatility, (3) effects of credit rating on international financial markets, (4) exchange rate volatility and market efficiency, (5) banking sector efficiency, (6) linkage between financial development and economic growth, (7) technical analysis in the foreign exchange market and R&D investment, and (8) stock markets and environmental sustainability. Using regression analysis, we find five factors positively associated with IJFE citations: lead article in an issue, number of authors, article age, number of tables, and number of references. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although financial development is recognized as a vital determinant of countries' economic growth path, many empirical studies fail to further isolate the role of socioeconomic indicators on accelerating growth. This study attempts to fill this gap by examining the statistical significance and the behaviour of several socioeconomic indicators on economic growth. We apply parametric (System GMM estimators) and semi‐parametric techniques along the lines of Baltagi and Li. Annals of Economics and Finance, 2002, 3, 103–116 on a panel data set of 19 Eurozone countries over the period 1995–2017. We test for non‐linear effects on economic growth for three banking indicators (domestic credit, non‐performing loans, and banking capitalization). In contrast to the related literature, our findings provide sufficient evidence of non‐linear relationships between several aspects of financial development and economic growth. Our results survive robustness checks implying significant policy implications for policymakers and regulators in their effort of balancing banking development with a resurgence in economic growth within the EU periphery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem of sovereign default is a tricky one for bankers, policy makers, politicians and investors alike. Purely financial models are likely to miss nuance and cultural idiosyncrasies. Nonetheless, risk metrics must play a role. Using a stochastic growth model in an open economy, we propose a Kealhofer, McQuown and Vasicek (KMV)-style approach for assessing sovereign default risk in resource-rich emerging economies. As is well known, financial effects, specifically external debt, can make a country vulnerable to economic shocks. Excessive external debt is, thus, a prime indicator for financial health in both resource-poor and resource-rich countries; yet, safe ratios are difficult to determine. Using a straightforward and easily implementable methodology, we show how optimal debt ratios may be used to define a 'distance from default' indicator variable. Further, we demonstrate that this is a plausible risk metric for a number of different developing countries, including representatives from Latin America, Africa and Asia. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT We reveal evidence that the US aggregate bank dividends exercise a causal impact on the US real GDP growth during the period from the introduction of the Prompt Corrective Action framework in 1992 until the outburst of the subprime mortgage market crisis in 2007. Over this period, the positive signalling effects of bank dividends outperform the negative effect of dividends on default risk. During the pre-Prompt Corrective Action and the recent post-2007 periods, bank dividends do not affect GDP growth. This regime-dependent relation is due to an asymmetric role of bank default risk. These findings are of interest to bank regulators in reassessing the role of bank dividends within Basel III and carry important policy implications as bank dividends constitute an important tool available to policy makers for strengthening real activity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growth effects of financial development might be asymmetric and nonlinear according to the level of financialization of countries. As a corollary to this notion, in the subject study, we developed a three‐regime threshold autoregressive distributed lags (TARDL) model, which allows us to accommodate the asymmetric effect of financial development on economic growth in top 10 financially developed countries. We augmented the TARDL model by including trade openness, capital formation and labour as potential determinants of economic growth. The empirical findings revealed the existence of threshold asymmetric co‐integration between variables. In particular, in the upper regime, financial development boosts economic growth in Singapore while it exerts a negative impact on economic growth in Finland. In the middle regime, financial development increases economic growth in Australia and Singapore. However, in the lower regime, financial development hampers economic growth in the US, Malaysia and Singapore. Trade openness has a positive long‐run influence on economic growth in Canada, South Africa, Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, Finland and Norway. Capital formation strengthens economic growth in the US and Malaysia in the long‐run. Labour is found to sustain economic growth in the long‐run for Malaysia and Singapore. The dynamic multipliers which depict the response path of economic growth to a one‐unit shock of financial development in the three regimes highlight the discrepancies in the reaction of economic growth to financial development shocks occurring in different regimes. Important policy implications can be instigated from the empirical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growth effects of international financial liberalization and integration are investigated using the methodology and data developed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). The main result is that industries highly dependent on external financing do not experience higher growth in value added in countries with liberalized financial markets. Liberalization does, however, increase the growth rates of both output and firm creation among externally dependent industries—given that the countries have reached a relatively high level of financial development. These results are consistent both with increased competition and increased outsourcing. Some tentative evidence points towards the latter explanation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to estimate the credibility of monetary policy in four accession countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and the Slovak Republic), based on the Markov regime-switching (MRS) framework. We utilize the theoretical proposition that in the conduct of monetary policy, there is uncertainty in terms of the type of central bank. We measure this uncertainty as a deviation of monetary policy from a target level. We utilize for the target level the differential between the interest rates of the four individual accession countries and a ‘synthetic’ interest rate of 11 EMU member countries. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Islamic banking has gleaned considerable attention recently owing to its quantum growth. This study examines the asymmetric association between Islamic banking development (IBD) and economic growth (EG) in Pakistan that spans 2007Q1 to 2017Q4. We apply the non‐linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model of Shin et al., (2014). Our findings confirm co‐integration between IBD and EG in Pakistan. The positive (negative) shocks of IBD have significant positive (negative) association with EG in the long‐run; however, only positive shocks have significant positive relationship with EG in the short run. We observe that the interconnection between IBD‐EG is asymmetric/non‐linear in the long‐run, whereas symmetric/linear in the short run. We conclude that unlike the linear models, the non‐linear models provide realistic results by capturing hidden asymmetries, thereby assisting policymakers in useful decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We collect data on a number of financial restraints, including restrictions on deposit and lending interest rates and reserve and liquidity requirements, from central banks of six developing countries. We estimate the effects of these policies on financial development, controlling for the effect of economic development and using standard econometric techniques. We find that the effects of financial policies vary considerably across our sample of countries. Our findings demonstrate that financial liberalisation is a much more complex process than has been assumed by earlier literature and its effects on financial development are ambiguous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]