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Background The Medical Certificate of Stillbirth (MCS) records data about a baby's death after 24 weeks of gestation but before birth. Major errors that could alter interpretation of the MCS were widespread in two UK-based regional studies. Methods A multicentre evaluation was conducted, examining MCS issued 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2018 in 76 UK obstetric units. A systematic case-note review of stillbirths was conducted by Obstetric and Gynaecology trainees, generating individual 'ideal MCSs' and comparing these to the actual MCS issued. Anonymized central data analysis described rates and types of error, agreement and factors associated with major errors. Results There were 1120 MCSs suitable for assessment, with 126 additional submitted data sets unsuitable for accuracy analysis (total 1246 cases). Gestational age demonstrated 'substantial' agreement [K = 0.73 (95% CI 0.70–0.76)]. Primary cause of death (COD) showed 'fair' agreement [K = 0.26 (95% CI 0.24–0.29)]. Major errors [696/1120; 62.1% (95% CI 59.3–64.9%)] included certificates issued for fetal demise at <24 weeks' gestation [23/696; 3.3% (95% CI 2.2–4.9%)] or neonatal death [2/696; 0.3% (95% CI 0.1–1.1%)] or incorrect primary COD [667/696; 95.8% (95% CI 94.1–97.1%)]. Of 540/1246 [43.3% (95% CI 40.6–46.1%)] 'unexplained' stillbirths, only 119/540 [22.0% (95% CI 18.8–25.7%)] remained unexplained; the majority were redesignated as either fetal growth restriction [FGR: 195/540; 36.1% (95% CI 32.2–40.3%)] or placental insufficiency [184/540; 34.1% (95% CI 30.2–38.2)]. Overall, FGR [306/1246; 24.6% (95% CI 22.3–27.0%)] was the leading primary COD after review, yet only 53/306 [17.3% (95% CI 13.5–22.1%)] FGR cases were originally attributed correctly. Conclusion This study demonstrates widespread major errors in MCS completion across the UK. MCS should only be completed following structured case-note review, with particular attention on the fetal growth trajectory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several countries have reported an increase in life expectancy at advanced ages. This paper analyses recent changes in life expectancy at age 60 and 85 in The Netherlands, a low mortality country with reliable mortality data.Methods: We used data on the population and the number of deaths by age, sex and underlying cause of death for 1970-1994. Life expectancy at age 60 and 85 was estimated using standard life-table techniques. The contribution of different ages and causes of death to the change in life expectancy during the 1970s (1970/74-1980/84) and the 1980s (1980/84-1990/94) were estimated with a decomposition technique developed by Arriaga.Results: Life expectancy at age 60 increased in the 1970s and 1980s, whereas life expectancy at age 85 decreased (men) and stagnated (women) in the 1980s, and has decreased in both sexes since 1985/89. The decomposition by age showed that constant mortality rates in women aged 85-89, and increasing mortality rates at ages 85+ (men) and 90+ (women) have caused this lack of increase in life expectancy. The decomposition by cause of death showed that smaller mortality reductions from other cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, which contributed most to the increase in life expectancy at age 85 in the 1970s, and mortality increases from, amongst others, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), mental disorders and diabetes mellitus produced the decrease (men) and plateau (women) in life expectancy at age 85.Conclusions: Life expectancy at advanced ages stopped increasing during the 1980s in The Netherlands due to mortality increases at ages 85+ (men) and 90+ (women). Cause-specific trends suggest that, in addition to (past) smoking behaviour in men, changes in the distribution of morbidity and frailty in the population might have contributed to this stagnation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Changing causes of deaths in the mortality transition in Papua New Guinea (PNG) are poorly understood. This study analysed community-level data to identify leading causes of death in the population and variations across age groups and sexes, urban-rural sectors and provinces. Method Mortality surveillance data were collected from 2018–20 as part of the Comprehensive Health and Epidemiological Surveillance System (CHESS), using the World Health Organization 2016 verbal autopsy (VA) instrument. Data from 926 VA interviews were analysed, using the InterVA-5 cause of death analytical tool to assign specific causes of death among children (0–14 years), those of working age (15–64 years) and the elderly (65+ years). Result Nearly 50% of the total deaths were attributed to non-communicable diseases (NCDs), followed by infectious and parasitic diseases (35%), injuries and external causes (11%) and maternal and neonatal deaths (4%). Leading causes of death among children were acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) and diarrhoeal diseases, each contributing to 13% of total deaths. Among the working population, tuberculosis (TB) contributed to 12% of total deaths, followed by HIV/AIDS (11%). TB- and HIV/AIDS-attributed deaths were highest in the age group 25–34 years, at 20% and 18%, respectively. These diseases killed more females of working age (n  = 79, 15%) than males (n  = 52, 8%). Among the elderly, the leading causes of death were ARTIs (13%) followed by digestive neoplasms (10%) and acute cardiac diseases (9%). Conclusion The variations in leading causes of death across the populations in PNG suggest diversity in mortality transition. This requires different strategies to address specific causes of death in particular populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Questions remain about the effect on mortality of physical activity and sedentary behaviour over time. We summarized the evidence from studies that assessed exposure from multiple time points and critiqued the analytic approaches used.Methods: A search was performed on MEDLINE, Embase, Emcare, Scopus and Web of Science up to January 2021 for studies of repeatedly assessed physical activity or sedentary behaviour in relation to all-cause or cause-specific mortality. Relative risks from individual studies were extracted. Each study was assessed for risk of bias from multiple domains.Results: We identified 64 eligible studies (57 on physical activity, 6 on sedentary behaviour, 1 on both). Cox regression with a time-fixed exposure history (n = 45) or time-varying covariates (n = 13) were the most frequently used methods. Only four studies used g-methods, which are designed to adjust for time-varying confounding. Risk of bias arose primarily from inadequate adjustment for time-varying confounders, participant selection, exposure classification and changes from measured exposure. Despite heterogeneity in methods, most studies found that being consistently or increasingly active over adulthood was associated with lower all-cause and cardiovascular-disease mortality compared with being always inactive. Few studies examined physical-activity changes and cancer mortality or effects of sedentary-behaviour changes on mortality outcomes.Conclusions: Accumulating more evidence using longitudinal data while addressing the methodological challenges would provide greater insight into the health effects of initiating or maintaining a more active and less sedentary lifestyle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The US rural disadvantage in life expectancy (LE) relative to urban areas has grown over time. We measured the contribution of cardiovascular disease (CVD), drug-overdose deaths (DODs) and other major causes of death to LE trends in rural and urban counties and the rural-urban LE gap.Methods: Counterfactual life tables and cause-of-death decompositions were constructed using data on all US deaths in 1999-2019 (N = 51 998 560) from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Results: During 1999-2009, rural and urban counties experienced robust LE gains, but urban LE increased by 1.19 years more in women and 0.86 years more in men compared with rural LE. During 2010-2019, rural counties experienced absolute declines in LE (women -0.20, men -0.30 years), whereas urban counties experienced modest increases (women 0.55, men 0.29 years). Counterfactual analysis showed that slowed CVD-mortality declines, particularly in ages 65+ years, were the main reason why rural LE stopped increasing after 2010. However, slow progress in CVD-mortality influenced LE trends more in urban areas. If CVD-mortality had continued to decline at its pre-2010 pace, the rural-urban LE gap would have grown even more post 2010. DODs and other causes of death also contributed to the LE trends and differences in each period, but their impact in comparison to that of CVD was relatively small.Conclusions: Rural disadvantage in LE continues to grow, but at a slower pace than pre 2010. This slowdown is more attributable to adverse trends in CVD and DOD mortality in urban areas than improvements in rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is considerable variation in mortality rates from myocardial infarction (MI) across high-income countries, some of which may be artefactual.Methods: Time trends in mortality rates from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and MI were analysed for a set of high-income countries from the end of the 1970s. Using individual-level mortality data from Russia (2005-2017) and Norway (2005-2016), we investigated factors associated with the proportion of total IHD deaths certified as due to MI.Results: In most countries, MI mortality rates have dramatically declined from the 1970s. However, the share of MI in total IHD deaths varies substantially across countries. In Russia, only 12% of IHD deaths had MI assigned as the underlying cause vs 63% in Norway. IHD deaths occurring outside of hospital without autopsy were far less likely to be assigned as MI in Russia (2%) than in Norway (59%).Conclusions: Although established international criteria for MI require specific clinical or post-mortem evidence, it appears that certifying specialists in different countries may interpret these criteria differently. At one extreme, Russian doctors may only assign MI as a cause of death when there is specific pathophysiological evidence. At the other extreme, their counterparts in Norway may be willing to specify MI as the cause even when this evidence is not available. Internationally established criteria for MI diagnosis are challenging to apply for out-of-hospital deaths. Differences between countries in how certifiers interpret these criteria may account for at least some of the international variation in MI mortality rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Reliable cause of death (COD) data are not available for the majority of deaths in Papua New Guinea (PNG), despite their critical policy value. Automated verbal autopsy (VA) methods, involving an interview and automated analysis to diagnose causes of community deaths, have recently been trialled in PNG. Here, we report VA results from three sites and highlight the utility of these methods to generate information about the leading CODs in the country.Methods: VA methods were introduced in one district in each of three provinces: Alotau in Milne Bay; Tambul-Nebilyer in Western Highlands; and Talasea in West New Britain. VA interviews were conducted using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) shortened questionnaire and analysed using the SmartVA automated diagnostic algorithm.Results: A total of 1655 VAs were collected between June 2018 and November 2019, 87.0% of which related to deaths at age 12 years and over. Our findings suggest a continuing high proportion of deaths due to infectious diseases (27.0%) and a lower proportion of deaths due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) (50.8%) than estimated by the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017: 16.5% infectious diseases and 70.5% NCDs. The proportion of injury deaths was also high compared with GBD: 22.5% versus 13.0%.Conclusions: Health policy in PNG needs to address a 'triple burden' of high infectious mortality, rising NCDs and a high fraction of deaths due to injuries. This study demonstrates the potential of automated VA methods to generate timely, reliable and policy-relevant data on COD patterns in hard-to-reach populations in PNG. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are evident in all high-income countries, and ongoing monitoring is recommended using linked census-mortality data. Using such data, we provide the first estimates of education-related inequalities in cause-specific mortality in Australia, suitable for international comparisons.Methods: We used Australian Census (2016) linked to 13 months of Death Registrations (2016-17). We estimated relative rates (RR) and rate differences (RD, per 100 000 person-years), comparing rates in low (no qualifications) and intermediate (secondary school) with high (tertiary) education for individual causes of death (among those aged 25-84 years) and grouped according to preventability (25-74 years), separately by sex and age group, adjusting for age, using negative binomial regression.Results: Among 13.9 M people contributing 14 452 732 person-years, 84 743 deaths occurred. All-cause mortality rates among men and women aged 25-84 years with low education were 2.76 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.61-2.91] and 2.13 (2.01-2.26) times the rates of those with high education, respectively. We observed inequalities in most causes of death in each age-sex group. Among men aged 25-44 years, relative and absolute inequalities were largest for injuries, e.g. transport accidents [RR = 10.1 (5.4-18.7), RD = 21.2 (14.5-27.9)]). Among those aged 45-64 years, inequalities were greatest for chronic diseases, e.g. lung cancer [men RR = 6.6 (4.9-8.9), RD = 57.7 (49.7-65.8)] and ischaemic heart disease [women RR = 5.8 (3.7-9.1), RD = 20.2 (15.8-24.6)], with similar patterns for people aged 65-84 years. When grouped according to preventability, inequalities were large for causes amenable to behaviour change and medical intervention for all ages and causes amenable to injury prevention among young men.Conclusions: Australian education-related inequalities in mortality are substantial, generally higher than international estimates, and related to preventability. Findings highlight opportunities to reduce them and the potential to improve the health of the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Research is needed to determine the relevance of low-intensity daily smoking to mortality in countries such as Mexico, where such smoking habits are common.Methods: Prospective study of 159 755 Mexican adults recruited from 1998-2004 and followed for cause-specific mortality to 1 January 2018. Participants were categorized according to baseline self-reported smoking status. Confounder-adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs) at ages 35-89 were estimated using Cox regression, after excluding those with previous chronic disease (to avoid reverse causality).Results: Among 42 416 men and 86 735 women aged 35-89 and without previous disease, 18 985 men (45%) and 18 072 women (21%) reported current smoking and 8866 men (21%) and 53 912 women (62%) reported never smoking. Smoking less than daily was common: 33% of male current smokers and 39% of female current smokers. During follow-up, the all-cause mortality RRs associated with the baseline smoking categories of <10 cigarettes per day (average during follow-up 4 per day) or ≥10 cigarettes per day (average during follow-up 10 per day), compared with never smoking, were 1.17 (95% confidence interval 1.10-1.25) and 1.54 (1.42-1.67), respectively. RRs were similar irrespective of age or sex. The diseases most strongly associated with daily smoking were respiratory cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and gastrointestinal and vascular diseases. Ex-daily smokers had substantially lower mortality rates than those who were current daily smokers at recruitment.Conclusions: In this Mexican population, low-intensity daily smoking was associated with increased mortality. Of those smoking 10 cigarettes per day on average, about one-third were killed by their habit. Quitting substantially reduced these risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This paper describes the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) mortality among young adults in Spain with specific reference to other causes of death.Methods: Based on death registration data for the period 1980-1993, HIV/AIDS was compared against all other causes of death by gender, using specific rates in the 25-44 age group and standardized rates for potential years of life lost (PYLL).Results: In 1993, HIV/AIDS was the leading cause of death among men aged 25-44 years (21.8% of all deaths) and the second leading cause of death among women (14.9%), exceeded only by cancer. Since 1982, the trend in the overall standardized mortality rate for men in the 25-44 age group has been reversed, showing a progressive increase. Similarly, since 1984 there has been a halt in the decline in female mortality. For both sexes, maintenance of these trends in mortality was largely ascribable to the effect of HIV/AIDS deaths which registered a marked rise, a rise far sharper than that witnessed for variations in all other causes studied. In 1993, the adjusted PYLL rate for HIV/AIDS for ages 1-70 rose to 615 per 100,000 population in men and 156 in women. These values accounted for 9.2% and 5.8% of PYLL for all causes, thereby ranking HIV/AIDS behind motor vehicle accidents as the second leading cause of premature death in men, and behind motor vehicle accidents and breast cancer as the third leading cause in women. For both sexes, the rise in the PYLL rate for HIV/AIDS from 1992 to 1993 proved far greater than that for all other causes of death.Conclusion: In Spain, HIV/AIDS has become the leading cause of death among young adults and is counteracting improvements in mortality due to other causes. It should therefore be regarded as a priority public health problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Many diabetic individuals use prescription and non-prescription opioids and opiates. We aimed to investigate the joint effect of diabetes and opiate use on all-cause and cause-specific mortality.Methods: Golestan Cohort study is a prospective population-based study in Iran. A total of 50 045 people-aged 40-75, 28 811 women, 8487 opiate users, 3548 diabetic patients-were followed during a median of 11.1 years, with over 99% success follow-up. Hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals (HRs, 95% CIs), and preventable death attributable to each risk factor, were calculated.Results: After 533 309 person-years, 7060 deaths occurred: 4178 (10.8%) of non-diabetic non-opiate users, 757 (25.3%) diabetic non-users, 1906 (24.0%) non-diabetic opiate users and 219 (39.8%) diabetic opiate users. Compared with non-diabetic non-users, HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality were 2.17 (2.00-2.35) in diabetic non-opiate users, 1.63 (1.53-1.74) in non-diabetic opiate users and 2.76 (2.40-3.17) in diabetic opiate users. Among those who both had diabetes and used opiates, 63.8% (95% CI: 58.3%-68.5%) of all deaths were attributable to these risk factors, compared with 53.9% (95% CI: 50%-57.4%) in people who only had diabetes and 38.7% (95% CI: 34.6%-42.5%) in non-diabetic opiate users. Diabetes was more strongly associated with cardiovascular than cancer mortality. The risk of early mortality in known cases of diabetes did not depend on whether they started opiate use before or after their diagnosis.Conclusions: Using opiates is detrimental to the health of diabetic patients. Public awareness about the health effects of opiates, and improvement of diabetes care especially among individuals with or at risk of opiate use, are necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life expectancy is most commonly measured for a period (corresponding to mortality within a given year) or for a specific birth cohort. Although widely used, period and cohort life expectancy have limitations as their time-trends often show disparities and can mask the historical mortality experience of all cohorts present at a given time. The truncated cross-sectional average length of life, or TCAL, is a period measure including all available cohort mortality information, irrespective of whether all cohort members have died. It is particularly useful for comparing cohort mortality between populations. This study extends TCAL by disentangling causes of death contributions. The strength of the approach is that it allows identification of mortality differences in cohorts with members still alive, as well as identification of which ages and causes of death contribute to mortality differentials between populations. Application of the method to Japan shows that over the period 1950-2014 a major contributor to TCAL differences with other high-longevity countries was its lower cardiovascular disease mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Wealth inequalities are increasing in many countries, but their relationship to health is little studied. We investigated the association between individual wealth and mortality across the adult life course in Sweden.Methods: We studied the Swedish adult population using national registers. The amount of wealth tax paid in 1990 was the main exposure of interest and the cohort was followed up for 18 years. Relative indices of inequality (RII) summarize health inequalities across a population and were calculated for all-cause and cause-specific mortality for six different age groups, stratified by sex, using Poisson regression. Mortality inequalities by wealth were contrasted with those assessed by individual and household income. Attenuation by four other measures of socio-economic position and other covariates was investigated.Results: Large inequalities in mortality by wealth were observed and their association with mortality remained more stable across the adult life course than inequalities by income-based measures. Men experienced greater inequalities across all ages (e.g. the RII for wealth was 2.58 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.54-2.63) in men aged 55-64 years compared with 2.29 (95% CI 2.24-2.34) for women aged 55-64 years), except among the over 85s. Adjustment for covariates, including four other measures of socio-economic position, led to only modest reductions in the association between wealth and mortality.Conclusions: Wealth is strongly associated with mortality throughout the adult life course, including early adulthood. Income redistribution may be insufficient to narrow health inequalities-addressing the increasingly unequal distribution of wealth in high-income countries should be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Life course epidemiology suggests that early life circumstances affect adult mortality, but most of the evidence is based on cohorts born in the beginning of the 20th century. It remains unclear whether and how the influences of early life circumstances on mortality have changed in later birth cohorts.Methods: Analyses rely on 10% register-based samples of households drawn from the 1950 and the 1975 Finnish censuses, with consistent follow-up of socioeconomic and housing-related characteristics and early mid-life mortality (at ages 30-55 years). We estimate survival models for the associations between childhood circumstances and all-cause, internal and external mortality for cohorts born in 1936-50 and 1961-75 adjusting for attained social characteristics. We estimate sibling intraclass correlations as summary measures of all early life and familial influences.Results: Adverse childhood social circumstances were typically associated with about 10-30% excess cause-specific mortality. These associations were almost fully attenuated by adjustment for achieved later life social characteristics. Early life influences have grown over time for mortality from external causes, particularly as related to home ownership and family type. Differentials have remained stable for internal causes. The intraclass correlations further confirmed the increasing association of early life circumstances on external-cause mortality.Conclusions: Our analyses show that the associations between childhood characteristics and mid-life mortality are substantial and almost fully mediated by achieved adult social characteristics. The increase in the contribution of childhood circumstances to mid-life mortality is driven by ever stronger associations with external causes of death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In population-based cancer survival studies, the event of interest is usually death due to cancer. However, other competing events may be present. Relative survival is a commonly used measure in cancer studies that circumvents problems caused by the inaccuracy of the cause of death information. A summary of the prognosis of the cancer population and potential differences between subgroups can be obtained using marginal estimates of relative survival.Methods: We utilize regression standardization to obtain marginal estimates of interest in a relative survival framework. Such measures include the standardized relative survival, standardized all-cause survival and standardized crude probabilities of death. Contrasts of these can be formed to explore differences between exposure groups and under certain assumptions are interpreted as causal effects. The difference in standardized all-cause survival can also provide an estimate for the impact of eliminating cancer-related differences between exposure groups. The potential avoidable deaths after such hypothetical scenarios can also be estimated. To illustrate the methods we use the example of survival differences across socio-economic groups for colon cancer.Results: Using relative survival, a range of marginal measures and contrasts were estimated. For these measures we either focused on cancer-related differences only or chose to incorporate both cancer and other cause differences. The impact of eliminating differences between groups was also estimated. Another useful way for quantifying that impact is the avoidable deaths under hypothetical scenarios.Conclusions: Marginal estimates within the relative survival framework provide useful summary measures and can be applied to better understand differences across exposure groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: National linked mortality and census data have not previously been available for Australia. We estimated education-based mortality inequalities from linked census and mortality data that are suitable for international comparisons.Methods: We used the Australian Bureau of Statistics Death Registrations to Census file, with data on deaths (2011-2012) linked probabilistically to census data (linkage rate 81%). To assess validity, we compared mortality rates by age group (25-44, 45-64, 65-84 years), sex and area-inequality measures to those based on complete death registration data. We used negative binomial regression to quantify inequalities in all-cause mortality in relation to five levels of education ['Bachelor degree or higher' (highest) to 'no Year 12 and no post-secondary qualification' (lowest)], separately by sex and age group, adjusting for single year of age and correcting for linkage bias and missing education data.Results: Mortality rates and area-based inequality estimates were comparable to published national estimates. Men aged 25-84 years with the lowest education had age-adjusted mortality rates 2.20 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.08‒2.33] times those of men with the highest education. Among women, the rate ratio was 1.64 (1.55‒1.74). Rate ratios were 3.87 (3.38‒4.44) in men and 2.57 (2.15‒3.07) in women aged 25-44 years, decreasing to 1.68 (1.60‒1.76) in men and 1.44 (1.36‒1.53) in women aged 65-84 years. Absolute education inequalities increased with age. One in three to four deaths (31%) was associated with less than Bachelor level education.Conclusions: These linked national data enabled valid estimates of education inequality in mortality suitable for international comparisons. The magnitude of relative inequality is substantial and similar to that reported for other high-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Venezuela is one of the most violent countries in the world. According to the United Nations, homicide rates in the country increased from 32.9 to 61.9 per 100 000 people between 2000 and 2014. This upsurge coincided with a slowdown in life expectancy improvements. We estimate mortality trends and quantify the impact of violence-related deaths and other causes of death on life expectancy and lifespan inequality in Venezuela.Methods: Life tables were computed with corrected age-specific mortality rates from 1996 to 2013. From these, changes in life expectancy and lifespan inequality were decomposed by age and cause of death using a continuous-change model. Lifespan inequality, or variation in age at death, is measured by the standard deviation of the age-at-death distribution.Results: From 1996 to 2013 in Venezuela, female life expectancy rose 3.57 [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.08-4.09] years [from 75.79 (75.98-76.10) to 79.36 (78.97-79.68)], and lifespan inequality fell 1.03 (-2.96 to 1.26) years [from 18.44 (18.01-19.00) to 17.41 (17.30-18.27)]. Male life expectancy increased 1.64 (1.09-2.25) years [from 69.36 (68.89-59.70) to 71.00 (70.53-71.39)], but lifespan inequality increased 0.95 (-0.80 to 2.89) years [from 20.70 (20.24-21.08) to 21.65 (21.34-22.12)]. If violence-related death rates had not risen over this period, male life expectancy would have increased an additional 1.55 years, and lifespan inequality would have declined slightly (-0.31 years).Conclusions: As increases in violence-related deaths among young men (ages 15-39) have slowed gains in male life expectancy and increased lifespan inequality, Venezuelan males face more uncertainty about their age at death. There is an urgent need for more accurate mortality estimates in Venezuela. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The USA ranks last in life expectancy among high-income countries. Since 2000, excess US mortality has been particularly concentrated in the working ages, which are also the ages hardest hit by the increase in drug deaths. This study measures the effect of drug-related mortality on the gap in life expectancy between the USA and other countries.Methods: Data from the Human Mortality Database and the World Health Organization were combined to construct age-standardized mortality rates for 2000-14 in 12 high-income countries and the USA for seven broad causes of death, including drug use. The contribution of each cause to the difference in life expectancy between the USA and the other 12 countries was estimated.Results: In 2014, the increase in drug-related deaths accounted for 10-15% of the US disadvantage in mortality, but with marked differences by age group. For working-age men, the increase in drug-related deaths accounted for up to 38% of the difference. Overall, American mortality is higher than the comparison countries across a wide range of causes.Conclusions: The severity of the drug epidemic appears to be specific to the USA, but it only partly contributes to the American shortfall in mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe our experience in several settings, following a suggestion in 1983 to add questions on the smoking status of the deceased on the UK death certificate as an effective way to monitor the evolution of the smoking epidemic. In South Africa in 1997 and in Tianjin Municipality, China, in 2010, questions about the smoking habits of the deceased were inserted on the official death certificates. In both places a system now exists to routinely collect information on smoking status in relation to causes of death. Results from two million South African and 300 000 Chinese deceased individuals have been reported, and the sample size in both places continues to grow. An unsuccessful attempt was made in 2008 to insert smoking questions on the Australian death notification forms but comments and concerns from the registrars of births, marriages and deaths have international applicability. In both China and South Africa, inserting questions on smoking on the death notification forms was not a trivial task-in each it required, as a minimum, significant commitment from several government agencies. Benefits, however, include a better local understanding of the smoking epidemic and allowing for planning and monitoring of tobacco control programmes. Documenting the varied experiences of collecting information on smoking on death notification forms is useful to those wishing to introduce such questions in their own settings. This is pertinent especially at a time when vital registration systems are being improved, with an aim to monitoring sustainable development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Infant-mortality rates have been declining in many low- and middle-income countries, including Brazil. Information on causes of death and on socio-economic inequalities is scarce.Methods: Four birth cohorts were carried out in the city of Pelotas in 1982, 1993, 2004 and 2015, each including all hospital births in the calendar year. Surveillance in hospitals and vital registries, accompanied by interviews with doctors and families, detected fetal and infant deaths and ascertained their causes. Late-fetal (stillbirth)-, neonatal- and post-neonatal-death rates were calculated.Results: All-cause and cause-specific death rates were reduced. During the study period, stillbirths fell by 47.8% (from 16.1 to 8.4 per 1000), neonatal mortality by 57.0% (from 20.1 to 8.7) and infant mortality by 62.0% (from 36.4 to 13.8). Perinatal causes were the leading causes of death in the four cohorts; deaths due to infectious diseases showed the largest reductions, with diarrhoea causing 25 deaths in 1982 and none in 2015. Late-fetal-, neonatal- and infant-mortality rates were higher for children born to Brown or Black women and to low-income women. Absolute socio-economic inequalities based on income-expressed in deaths per 1000 births-were reduced over time but relative inequalities-expressed as ratios of mortality rates-tended to remain stable.Conclusion: The observed improvements are likely due to progress in social determinants of health and expansion of health care. In spite of progress, current levels remain substantially greater than those observed in high-income countries, and social and ethnic inequalities persist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Enhanced understanding of spatial social polarization as a determinant of infant mortality is critical to efforts aimed at advancing health equity. Our objective was to identify associations between spatial social polarization and risk of infant death.Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of all birth records issued to non-Hispanic (NH) Black and White women in Wayne County, MI, from 2010 to 2013 (n = 84 159), including linked death records for deaths occurring at less than 1 year of age. Spatial social polarization was measured in each Census tract of maternal residence (n = 599) using the Index of Concentration at the Extremes (ICE)-a joint measure of racial and economic segregation-estimated from American Community Survey 2009-2013 data. Log-Poisson regression models quantified relative risk (RR) of infant death (all-cause and cause-specific) associated with tertiles of the index, adjusting for maternal demographic characteristics and tract-level poverty.Results: The crude infant-mortality rate was more than 2-fold higher among NH Black infants compared with NH Whites (14.0 vs 5.9 deaths per 1000 live births). Half of the 845 infant deaths (72% NH Black, 28% NH White) occurred in tracts in the lowest tertile of the ICE distribution, representing areas of relative deprivation. After adjustments, risk of death among infants in the lowest tertile was 1.46 times greater than those in the highest tertile (adjusted infant-mortality rate = 3.7 deaths per 1000 live births in highest tertile vs 5.4 deaths per 1000 live births in lowest tertile, relative risk = 1.46, 95% confidence interval = 1.02, 2.09). Patterns of associations with the index differed by cause of death.Conclusions: These findings suggest efforts to support equitable community investments may reduce incidents of death and the disproportionate experience of loss among NH Black women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The crude death rate (CDR) is one of the defining indicators of humanitarian emergencies. When data from vital registration systems are not available, it is common practice to estimate the CDR from household surveys with cluster-sampling design. However, sample sizes are often too small to compare mortality estimates to emergency thresholds, at least in a frequentist framework. Several authors have proposed Bayesian methods for health surveys in humanitarian crises. Here, we develop an approach specifically for mortality data and cluster-sampling surveys.Methods: We describe a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson-Gamma mixture model with generic (weakly informative) priors that could be used as default in absence of any specific prior knowledge, and compare Bayesian and frequentist CDR estimates using five different mortality datasets. We provide an interpretation of the Bayesian estimates in the context of an emergency threshold and demonstrate how to interpret parameters at the cluster level and ways in which informative priors can be introduced.Results: With the same set of weakly informative priors, Bayesian CDR estimates are equivalent to frequentist estimates, for all practical purposes. The probability that the CDR surpasses the emergency threshold can be derived directly from the posterior of the mean of the mixing distribution. All observation in the datasets contribute to the estimation of cluster-level estimates, through the hierarchical structure of the model.Conclusions: In a context of sparse data, Bayesian mortality assessments have advantages over frequentist ones already when using only weakly informative priors. More informative priors offer a formal and transparent way of combining new data with existing data and expert knowledge and can help to improve decision-making in humanitarian crises by complementing frequentist estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Higher fruit consumption is associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Substantial uncertainties remain, however, about the associations of fruit consumption with all-cause mortality and mortality from subtypes of CVD and major non-vascular diseases, especially in China.Methods: In 2004-08, the nationwide China Kadoorie Biobank Study recruited > 0.5 million adults aged 30-79 years from 10 diverse localities in China. Fresh fruit consumption was estimated using an interviewer-administered electronic questionnaire, and mortality data were collected from death registries. Among the 462 342 participants who were free of major chronic diseases at baseline, 17 894 deaths were recorded during ∼ 7 years of follow-up. Cox regression yielded adjusted rate ratios (RRs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality associated with fruit consumption.Results: At baseline, 28% of participants reported consuming fruit ≥ 4 days/week (regular consumers) and 6% reported never/rarely consuming fruit (non-consumers). Compared with non-consumers, regular consumers had 27% [RR = 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.76] lower all-cause mortality, 34% lower CVD mortality (n = 6166; RR = 0.66, 0.61-0.71), 17% lower cancer mortality (n = 6796; RR = 0.83, 0.78-0.89) and 42% lower mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (n = 1119; RR = 0.58, 0.47-0.71). For each of the above, there was an approximately log-linear dose-response relationship with amount consumed. For mortality from site-specific cancers, fruit consumption was inversely associated with digestive tract cancer (n = 2265; RR = 0.72, 0.64-0.81), particularly oesophageal cancer (n = 801; RR = 0.65, 0.50-0.83), but not with cancer of lung or liver.Conclusions: Among Chinese adults, higher fresh fruit consumption was associated with significantly lower mortality from several major vascular and non-vascular diseases. Given the current low population level of fruit consumption, substantial health benefits could be gained from increased fruit consumption in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We assessed the quality of Global Burden of Disease-2010 (GBD-2010) estimates of road injury deaths by comparing with government statistics for Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries that report to the International Road Traffic Accident Database (IRTAD).Methods: We obtained tabulated data for 25 OECD countries that report to IRTAD and also report vital registration (VR) data to WHO. We collated VR deaths corresponding to the GBD-2010 road injury definition and estimated 'traffic', 'non-traffic' and 'unspecified whether traffic or non-traffic' components. We estimated national road injury deaths by redistributing partially specified causes of death, as was done by GBD until this was replaced by more complex methods in GBD-2010.Results: GBD-2010 estimates of road injury deaths exceeded IRTAD by 45% overall. IRTAD values fell below the GBD-2010 95% uncertainty interval in all but three countries. Mismatch of conceptual scope accounted for about 8% of this discrepancy, 5% was because GBD-2010 included cases other than road traffic and 3% because GBD-2010 (unlike IRTAD) includes deaths >30 days after injury. Pro rata distribution of partially specified causes in VR data gave estimates that were 18% higher than IRTAD but closer than GBD-2010 estimates for all but two countries. Cases in VR data specified as road injury gave estimates closer to IRTAD.Conclusions: GBD-2010 road injury mortality estimates are substantially higher than the road death toll in OECD countries. The discrepancy is not explained by wider scope of the GBD road injury construct nor by undercounting by IRTAD. GBD-2010 likely attributed substantially more deaths with partially specified causes to road injuries than is appropriate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: South African civil registration (CR) provides a key data source for local health decision making, and informs the levels and causes of mortality in data-lacking sub-Saharan African countries. We linked mortality data from CR and the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System (Agincourt HDSS) to examine the quality of rural CR data. Methods: Deterministic and probabilistic techniques were used to link death data from 2006 to 2009. Causes of death were aggregated into the WHO Mortality Tabulation List 1 and a locally relevant short list of 15 causes. The matching rate was compared with informant- reported death registration. Using the VA diagnoses as reference, misclassification patterns, sensitivity, positive predictive values and cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) were calculated for the short list. Results: A matching rate of 61% [95% confidence interval (CI): 59.2 to 62.3] was attained, lower than the informant-reported registration rate of 85% (CI: 83.4 to 85.8). For the 2264 matched cases, cause agreement was 15% (kappa 0.1083, CI: 0.0995 to 0.1171) for the WHO list, and 23% (kappa 0.1631, CI: 0.1511 to 0.1751) for the short list. CSMFs were significantly different for all but four (tuberculosis, cerebrovascular disease, other heart disease, and ill-defined natural) of the 15 causes evaluated. Conclusion: Despite data limitations, it is feasible to link official CR and HDSS verbal autopsy data. Data linkage proved a promising method to provide empirical evidence about the quality and utility of rural CR mortality data. Agreement of individual causes of death was low but, at the population level, careful interpretation of the CR data can assist health prioritization and planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Sun exposure is the single most important risk factor for skin cancer, but sun exposure may also have beneficial effects on health. We tested the hypothesis that individuals with skin cancer (non-melanoma skin cancer and cutaneous malignant melanoma) have less myocardial infarction, hip fracture and death from any cause, compared with general population controls.Methods We examined the entire Danish population above age 40 years from 1980 through 2006, comprising 4.4 million individuals. Diagnoses of non-melanoma skin cancer (n = 129 206), cutaneous malignant melanoma (n = 22107), myocardial infarction (n = 327 856), hip fracture (n = 129 419), and deaths from any cause (n = 1 629 519) were drawn from national registries.Results In individuals with vs without non-melanoma skin cancer, multifactorially adjusted odds ratios were 0.96 (95% confidence interval: 0.94–0.98) for myocardial infarction and 1.15 (1.12–1.18) for hip fracture, and the multifactorially adjusted hazard ratio was 0.52 (0.52–0.53) for death from any cause. Risk of hip fracture was reduced (odds ratios were below 1.0) in individuals below age 90 years. In individuals with vs without cutaneous malignant melanoma, corresponding odds ratios were 0.79 (0.74–0.84) for myocardial infarction and 0.84 (0.76–0.93) for hip fracture, and the corresponding hazard ratio for death from any cause was 0.89 (0.87–0.91); however, cutaneous malignant melanoma was associated positively with death from any cause in some individuals.Conclusions In this nationwide study, having a diagnosis of skin cancer was associated with less myocardial infarction, less hip fracture in those below age 90 years and less death from any cause. Causal conclusions cannot be made from our data. A beneficial effect of sun exposure per se needs to be examined in other studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Certain sites have gained notoriety as ‘hotspots’ for suicide by jumping. Structural interventions (e.g. barriers and safety nets) have been installed at some of these sites. Individual studies examining the effectiveness of these interventions have been underpowered.Method We conducted a meta-analysis, pooling data from nine studies.Results Following the interventions, there was an 86% reduction in jumping suicides per year at the sites in question (95% CI 79% to 91%). There was a 44% increase in jumping suicides per year at nearby sites (95% CI 15% to 81%), but the net gain was a 28% reduction in all jumping suicides per year in the study cities (95% CI 13% to 40%).Conclusions Structural interventions at ‘hotspots’ avert suicide at these sites. Some increases in suicide are evident at neighbouring sites, but there is an overall gain in terms of a reduction in all suicides by jumping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several studies in low-income populations report the somewhat counterintuitive finding that positive income gains adversely affect adult health. The literature posits that receipt of a large portion of annual income increases, in the short term, risk-taking behaviour and/or the consumption of health-damaging goods. This work implies the hypothesis that persons with an unexpected gain in income will exhibit an elevated risk of accidental death-the fifth leading cause of death in the USA. We test this hypothesis directly by capitalizing on a natural experiment in which Cherokee Indians in rural North Carolina received discrete lump sum payments from a new casino.Methods: We applied Poisson regression to the monthly count of accidental deaths among Cherokee Indians over 204 months spanning 1990-2006. We controlled for temporal patterns in accidental deaths (e.g. seasonality and trend) as well as changes in population size.Results: As hypothesized, the risk of accidental death rises above expected levels during months of the large casino payments (relative risk = 2.62; 95% confidence interval = 1.54-4.47). Exploratory analyses of ethnographic interviews and behavioural surveys support that increased vehicular travel and consumption of health-damaging goods may account for the rise in accident proneness.Conclusions: Although long-term income gains may improve health in this population, our findings indicate that acute responses to large income gains, in the short term, increase risk-taking and accident proneness. We encourage further investigation of natural experiments to identify causal economic antecedents of population health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives To examine trends in the Arab–Jew life expectancy gap in Israel during 1975–2004 and to determine the contribution of age groups and causes of death to changes in the gap.Methods Data on life expectancy and mortality rates by cause of death, for Arabs and Jews, were obtained from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. Standard life table techniques were used for decomposition analysis to explore the contribution to changes in the life expectancy gap.Results While life expectancy of Arabs was lower than Jews during 1975–2004, there was a decline in this gap during 1975–98. However, during the following years the gap increased and the difference in 2004 was 3.2 years for men and 4 years for women. During 2000–04, the main causes of death contributing to the gap in life expectancy were chronic diseases, mainly heart disease and diabetes. Heart disease mortality contributed mostly to the overall life expectancy gap for males and females, accounting for 0.89 and 1.17 years, respectively. The age group >65 years contributed most to the gap (1.33 years among males, and 2.42 years among females).Conclusions Following a period of reduction, the gap in life expectancy at birth between Arabs and Jews in Israel has started to widen. These findings indicate the need for increased attention to primary prevention and disease management in the Arab population. Reducing social and individual risk factors for major causes of death should be a national priority. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background A reduction in cause-specific mortality may be the most important public health measure of the efficacy of a new vaccine. However, in developing countries, assignment of causes of deaths occurring outside hospitals can be assessed often only through the questioning of relatives about the signs and symptoms leading to death (''post-mortem questionnaire''). Causes assigned in this way have poor sensitivity and specificity. We illustrate the effects of this misclassification on the power of a large trial of a pneumococcal polysaccharide/protein conjugate vaccine with a mortality endpoint. Methods Required sample sizes to achieve a study with specified power were calculated for all-cause and acute lower respiratory tract infection (ALRI) mortality for different levels of sensitivity and specificity of post-mortem questionnaires. Data from active community-based surveillance and post-mortem questionnaires collected 1989-1993 from the study area were used in the calculations. Findings The mortality rate among children aged 6-29 months from all causes was 34.2 per 1000 child-years; 19% of deaths were attributable to ALRI. Assuming that pneumococci would be responsible for 50% of ALRI deaths and that the vaccine would cover 70% of disease serotypes and would be 90% effective against these serotypes, the expected efficacy of the vaccine would be 6.0% (19% × 50% × 70% × 90%) against all causes combined and 31.5% (50% × 70% × 90%) against deaths from ALRI. If, as suggested by various reports, the sensitivity and specificity of assigning a death to ALRI by post-mortem questionnaire are about 40% and 90% respectively, then the observed vaccine efficacy against ALRI (as classified using the post-mortem questionnaire) would fall to 20%, and the power to detect this would be reduced by approximately 40%. Furthermore, low sensitivity of diagnosis would lead to a falsely low estimate of the burden of ALRI mortality in the population and the trial might have greater power to detect a reduction in mortality from all causes combined than that estimated at the outset. Conclusions Low sensitivity and specificity of diagnosis by post-mortem questionnaire may mean that the power of a trial to detect a reduction in all-cause mortality is similar to that to detect a reduction in ALRI mortality. Since the latter is more susceptible to bias from misclassification of cause of death, all-cause mortality may be the most suitable endpoint. Similar considerations apply to trials of interventions against other diseases for which a cause-specific endpoint is subject to substantial misclassification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To determine whether there are inequalities in the incidence of fatal and non-fatal unintentional injuries among Jewish and Arab children in Israel.Methods: A nationwide random sample of injured children aged 0-17 attending emergency rooms (ER) during one year was selected (n = 11 058). The number of cases was weighted to 365 days and rates and odds ratios (OR) were calculated. Logistic regression was performed to study the OR of hospitalization in the total population and among Jews and Arabs controlling for independent variables.Results: The incidence of ER admissions among the Jews was 752.6/10 000 (95% CI: 738.1-767.1), 1.5 times higher than among the Arabs (492.8/10 000, 95% CI: 472.8-512.8). However, the rate of hospitalization was 1.1 times higher among Arabs than among Jews and the mortality rate was 3.2 times higher among Arabs than among Jews.Conclusions: The differences in injury rates for fatal and non-fatal injuries may be due to differences in the severity of injuries or in the use of services by the two populations. A study is underway to elucidate this point. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Most previous studies on marital status and mortality did not adjust for the effect of 'marital selection'. Little research has been done about the relation between marital status and mortality in British women, with the exception of research on bereavement.Methods: Subjects consisted of women aged > or = 35 in a longitudinal study of a nationally representative sample. Marital status and covariates were enumerated at a baseline interview in 1984/85 and a follow-up interview in 1991/92. Death data up to May 1997 were obtained from the National Health Service Central Register. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for the single, divorced and widowed states in relation to the married state.Results: Having adjusted for age and martial selection factors, being single (HR = 1.45) was significantly associated with higher all-cause mortality. Being divorced and being widowed showed no excess mortality risk (each HR = 1.09).Conclusions: Being single was associated with higher mortality. A causal interpretation is plausible. Being divorced and being widowed were not associated with higher mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Measuring the impact of competing risks of death on society is important for setting public health policy and allocating resources. However, various indicators may result in inconsistent conclusions. The potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) by elimination of deaths from HIV/AIDS, diseases of the heart and malignant neoplasms were compared to the years of potential life lost (YPLL) due to these causes in measuring the impact of premature death for the US population of working age (15-64 years).Methods: The PGLE and the YPLL were computed from mortality reports (1987-1992) by race and gender group for deaths from HIV/AIDS, diseases of the heart and malignant neoplasms for the US population of working age.Results: The YPLL overestimated the importance of premature deaths from HIV/AIDS compared to the PGLE. For the total US population and total US white population of working age, the YPLL were about 20-30% higher than the PGLE. However, the YPLL were about 20-30% lower than the PGLE for the US black population of working age. Furthermore the relative importance of the impact of death from various diseases may be interchanged by these two indicators. For example, for US black males of working age, the impact of deaths from HIV/AIDS by PGLE in 1992 was higher than that from malignant neoplasms and lower than that from diseases of the heart, but by using YPLL, the impact of premature deaths from HIV/AIDS was higher than that from both diseases of the heart and malignant neoplasms.Conclusions: The PGLE by elimination of deaths from diseases takes into account the competing risks on the population and it can be compared easily across populations. The YPLL is an index that does not take into account competing risks and it is also heavily influenced by the age structure and total population size. Although there are several standardization techniques proposed to improve the comparability of the YPLL across different populations, the YPLL fails to address the central issue of competing risks operating on the population. For this reason, we prefer the PGLE to the YPLL in measuring the impact of premature deaths on a population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aims to evaluate the contribution of the reduction in major cardiovascular diseases (CVD), malignant neoplasms (MN), accidents and AIDS mortality to the gains in life expectancy observed during the decade 1985-1994, as well as to calculate and compare the potential gains due to the partial or total elimination of these causes.Methods: Mortality data from the Italian Mortality Data Base were analysed by the method of decomposition of changes in life expectancy and the partial multiple decrement life table technique.Results: In Italy, considering the decade 1985-1994, the gain in life expectancy at birth was 2.27 years for men and 2.16 for women. The major contribution to this increase was the reduction in CVD mortality followed by fewer deaths from accidents and MN. Conversely, AIDS caused a loss in the length of life of adults. Major potential gains in life expectancy at birth could be obtained by the elimination or even partial reduction of CVD and MN mortality. When working life (15-64 years) is considered, the relative importance of the causes changes. The elimination of accidents and AIDS would result in increased life expectancy longer than that associated with a 50% reduction in CVD.Conclusions: The findings of this study provide useful information which could contribute to a more effective allocation of resources for research activity and public health programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although the recent decline in child mortality in Bangladesh is remarkable, death from causes other than infectious diseases and malnutrition remains an important component of child mortality. Death from drowning of children can be expected to be a problem in Bangladesh given the geographical features of the country.Objective: The objectives of this study are to determine the trend, pattern, and correlates of drowning deaths.Methods: Data are presented on deaths of children (1-4 years) due to drowning derived from a longitudinal, population-based surveillance system in operation in a rural area of Bangladesh in 1983-1995. Moreover, a case-control study was carried out to identify the risk factors associated with drowning.Results: Deaths due to drowning ranged from about 10% to 25% of child deaths during 1983-1995. The absolute risk of dying from drowning remained almost the same over the study period but the proportion of drownings to all causes of death has increased. Drowning is especially prevalent in the second year of life. Age of the mother and parity have a significant impact on drowning. The risk of dying from drowning increases with the age of mother and much more sharply with the number of living children in the family. Two socioeconomic variables did not have an influence on the risk of drowning.Conclusions: A substantial proportion of child deaths could be averted if parents and other close relatives paid more attention to the safety of children. The Child Health Programme of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of Bangladesh should develop health education programmes for villagers alerting them to the dangers of drowning and measures to prevent it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related causes of death have been well documented in developed countries, in Africa data are scanty and mainly based on autopsy studies from city hospitals which are highly selective and may not represent causes of HIV-associated deaths in the general population. This study, from a rural population, describes the causes of death in HIV-positive people and their HIV-negative controls.Methods: A natural history cohort comprising HIV-1 infected participants and HIV-negative controls was established in rural Uganda in 1990. Causes of death were determined by reviewing the premorbid clinical and laboratory findings and from information obtained from relatives. Blindness to the deceased's HIV serostatus was maintained throughout.Results: In all, 78 deaths occurred over a 6-year period: 63 deaths occurred in the HIV-positive cases (53 prevalent and 10 incident cases) and 15 deaths in the HIV-negative controls. Of the prevalent cases, 56%, and 9% the incident cases enrolled died, compared with 7% of the HIV-negative controls. Of the 55 HIV-positive cases with sufficient data to establish cause of death, 52 (95%) were assessed as having HIV-associated deaths and 48 (87%) died in WHO stage 4 (AIDS). The main causes of death were wasting syndrome (31%), chronic diarrhoea (22%), cryptococcal meningitis (13%) and chest infection (11%).Conclusions: Our results represent an unbiased selection of deaths in a rural area. The HIV-positive cases have high death rates and die of HIV-related pathologies. The main causes of death reflect the WHO clinical case definition of AIDS. Cryptococcal meningitis is also a common cause of death in this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mortality in specified clinical populations has often been regarded as a measure of treatment effectiveness. This study examined time trends in mortality of drug addicts in the UK notified to the Home Office over a 27-year period.Methods: The study was a longitudinal analysis of routine mortality data of a population of newly notified addicts from 1967 to 1993. Altogether, 92 802 addicts were newly notified during the study period, and they accounted for 687 673 person-years of observation. The main outcome measures were age-specific all-causes mortality; drug-related mortality; and age- and sex-specific standardized mortality ratios (SMR) 1967-1993.Results: There were significant differences in death rates between the periods 1967-1976 (19/1000 person-years) and 1984-1993 (10.5/1000 person-years). Excess deaths were significantly higher among the 1967-1976 cohorts than in the 1984-1993 cohorts (SMR ratio = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.64-1.97). The majority of deaths were drug-related, with those aged <45 years more likely to die of a drug-related cause than those older (OR = 6.29, 95% CI: 4.97-7.96).Conclusions: It appears that service provision has some impact on all-causes mortality among opiate addicts. As services improved, there was a corresponding decline in mortality rates during the study period. Further preventive measures, however, should be devised to reduce drug-related deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In large-scale epidemiological studies of stillbirths and neonatal deaths a method is needed to replace detailed medical record audits in order to determine the cause of death.Methods: A computer-based method is presented for determination of the cause of death in stillbirths and in neonatal deaths. It utilizes information in the Swedish medical registries. The study comprises 6044 dead infants born in Sweden from 1983-1990. For each infant the program determines 31 basic characteristics which are important in deciding the cause of death. Based on these characteristics a modified Wigglesworth's classification is used to find the cause of death. The validity of the method was checked by comparing the computer generated information with information obtained by scrutinizing medical records for a 10% representative sample (603 infants).Results: Specificity and sensitivity for each basic characteristic varied, but for the modified Wigglesworth cause of death classification the concordance was 88%. The weakest data refer to intrauterine deaths, where pertinent information was often missing in the medical registries.Conclusion: The method can be used for large-scale epidemiological studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The objective of this study is to produce a detailed yet robust description of the epidemiologic transition in The Netherlands.Methods: National mortality data on sex, age, cause of death and calendar year (1875-1992) were extracted from official publications. For the entire period, 27 causes of death could be distinguished, while 65 causes (nested within the 27) could be studied from 1901 onwards. Cluster analysis was used to determine groups of causes of death with similar trend curves over a period of time with respect to age- and sex-standardized mortality rates.Results: With respect to the 27 causes, three important clusters were found: (1) infectious diseases which declined rapidly in the late 19th century (e.g. typhoid fever), (2) infectious diseases which showed a less precipitous decline (e.g. respiratory tuberculosis), and (3) non-infectious diseases which showed an increasing trend during most of the period 1875-1992 (e.g. cancer). The 65 causes provided more detail. Seven important clusters were found: four consisted mainly of infectious diseases, including a new cluster that declined rapidly after the Second World War (WW2) (e.g. acute bronchitis/influenza) and a new cluster showing an increasing trend in the 1920s and 1930s before declining in the years thereafter (e.g. appendicitis). Three clusters mainly contained non-infectious diseases, including a new one that declined from 1900 onwards (e.g. cancer of the stomach) and a new one that increased until WW2 but declined thereafter (e.g. chronic rheumatic heart disease).Conclusions: The results suggest that the conventional interpretation of the epidemiologic transition, which assumes a uniform decline of infectious diseases and a uniform increase of non-infectious diseases, needs to be modified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We have previously shown that the inverse social gradient in risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) was not explained by self-reported smoking habits. We pursued the issue in a follow-up study 15 years later, where use of tobacco was validated by serum cotinine.Methods: Some 3216 men aged 53-75 years were included in a study on the association between self-reported tobacco use and serum cotinine concentration. The men had their morbidity and mortality recorded over 4 years. Some 2833 men without overt cardiovascular disease were included in the incidence study. Potential confounders examined were serum lipids, serum selenium, alcohol consumption, physical activity, hypertension, blood pressure, and body mass index.Results: There was a strong positive correlation between serum cotinine level and self-reported tobacco smoking: r = 0.68, P < 0.0001. The misclassification rate of smokers as non-smokers was apparently higher in low social class. However, a larger proportion of men in low social class were users of chewing tobacco or snuff, and, when taking this into account, there was no social gradient (i.e. trend) in the estimated misclassification rates from social class I to social class V: 1.0%, 3.8%, 3.2%, 2.0%, 2.3%, P = NS. After validation of use of tobacco with serum cotinine measurements, compared with social class I, social class V had an overall significantly increased risk of IHD, relative risk = 4.5 (95% confidence interval: 1.6-12.9), P < 0.01, which was slightly higher than when no validation was performed.Conclusions: We conclude that, (i) social differences in use of tobacco validated by measurements of serum cotinine did not account for social inequalities in risk of IHD in middle-aged and elderly men, (ii) no significant social differences existed in the misclassification of smokers as non-smokers, (iii) reclassification of self-reported non-smokers should not be done without due consideration of the use of chewing tobacco and snuff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Verbal autopsies (VA) are frequently used to determine causes of death for individuals for whom there is no reliable clinical information regarding the terminal illness. VA interviews are used to note key symptoms and signs recalled by relatives of the deceased and diagnoses ascribed according to the symptom complexes. The VA technique assumes that individual disease entities have discrete symptom complexes and that these can be accurately recognized and recalled by the interviewees. We have examined the accuracy with which specific symptoms are recalled over time by mothers or normal guardians of 491 children who died on the paediatric wards of two district hospitals in East Africa. Kwashiorkor, measles, trauma, generalized convulsions and neonatal tetanus were all reported with a high degree of accuracy for children who died of these conditions and had low false positive rates for children without these conditions. Recall was similar within 1 month of death compared to recall after 6 months for most symptoms and signs except neonatal tetanus where false positive reports by mothers increased with time since death. Symptoms and signs commonly used to describe malaria, respiratory tract and diarrhoea-related deaths were reported by mothers to have been present during the terminal illness in 43% of cases where these features were absent. Recall abilities differed between the two communities studied for some symptoms and signs highlighting the importance of such studies in every setting where VA are applied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trends in amenable mortality rates for Maori and non-Maori New Zealanders were analysed and compared using regression models. The contribution of medical services to the decline in mortality rates was estimated. Mortality from causes amenable to medical intervention declined at a greater rate than non-amenable mortality for both groups. The proportion of the decline in mortality attributable to improvement in the impact of medical services was greater for non-Maori than for Maori, especially for females. Maori to non-Maori mortality ratios were greater for amenable than for non-amenable causes, indicating a systematic differential between the two groups in the impact of medical services. There was only a small improvement over the 20 years in the excess of amenable mortality suffered by Maori. The results have implications for the provision of medical services to Maori people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on data from the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics, the impact of influenza on mortality In The Netherlands was estimated for a 22.5-year period (1967–1989) in four age groups and three entities of disease, using Poisson regression techniques. Our analysis suggests that, on average, more than 2000 people died from influenza in The Netherlands each year, but in only a fraction of these deaths was influenza recognized as the cause of death. For each case of death registered as caused by influenza (registered influenza mortality), 2.6 additional cases of death registered as due to causes other than influenza, nevertheless, were influenza-related (non-registered influenza mortality). Therefore, the overall impact of influenza on mortality is estimated to be greater than registered influenza mortality by a factor of 3.6. Those under 60 years of age accounted for 5% of all non-registered influenza deaths, whereas people aged 60–69, 70–79 years and >80 years accounted for 12%, 29% and 54% of such deaths, respectively. When extrapolating the figures for the Dutch population of 1989, we could attribute, on average per season-year, 82 deaths per 100000 people >60 years, 143 in people >70 years, and 280 in people >80 years. Of all non-registered influenza cases of death, 47% were estimated to occur in people with heart disease as a primarily reported cause of death, 23% in those with lung disease, and 30% in those with other diseases. This study stresses the serious effects of influenza, mainly in the elderly (95% of non-registered influenza mortality). Prophylactic measures (vaccination) should not only be stimulated among populations with defined underlying diseases, but generally among all people ≥60 years. Future research should address the pathological mechanisms which lead to influenza-related excess mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]