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Lung cancer screening with computerised tomography holds promise, but optimising the balance of benefits and harms via selection of a high risk population is critical. PLCOm2012 is a logistic regression model based on U.S. data, incorporating sociodemographic and health factors, which predicts 6-year lung cancer risk among ever-smokers, and thus may better predict those who might benefit from screening than criteria based solely on age and smoking history. We aimed to validate the performance of PLCOm2012 in predicting lung cancer outcomes in a cohort of Australian smokers. Predicted risk of lung cancer was calculated using PLCOm2012 applied to baseline data from 95,882 ever-smokers aged ≥45 years in the 45 and Up Study (2006-2009). Predictions were compared to lung cancer outcomes captured to June 2014 via linkage to population-wide health databases; a total of 1,035 subsequent lung cancer diagnoses were identified. PLCOm2012 had good discrimination (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic-curve; AUC 0.80, 95%CI 0.78-0.81) and excellent calibration (mean and 90th percentiles of absolute risk difference between observed and predicted outcomes: 0.006 and 0.016, respectively). Sensitivity (69.4%, 95%CI, 65.6-73.0%) of the PLCOm2012 criteria in the 55-74 year age group for predicting lung cancers was greater than that using criteria based on ≥30 pack-years smoking and ≤15 years quit (57.3%, 53.3-61.3%; p < 0.0001), but specificity was lower (72.0%, 71.7-72.4% versus 75.2%, 74.8-75.6%, respectively; p < 0.0001). Targeting high risk people for lung cancer screening using PLCOm2012 might improve the balance of benefits versus harms, and cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prostate cancer (PC) is the most common non-cutaneous cancer in men worldwide. The relationships between PC and possible risk factors for PC cases ( n = 1,181) and male controls ( n = 875) from the New South Wales (NSW) Cancer, Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk Study (CLEAR) were examined in this study. The associations between PC risk and paternal history of PC, body mass index (BMI), medical conditions, sexual behaviour, balding pattern and puberty, after adjusting for age, income, region of birth, place of residence, and PSA testing, were examined. Adjusted risk of PC was higher for men with a paternal history of PC (OR = 2.31; 95%CI: 1.70-3.14), personal history of prostatitis (OR = 2.30; 95%CI: 1.44-3.70), benign prostatic hyperplasia (OR = 2.29; 95%CI: 1.79-2.93), being overweight (vs. normal; OR = 1.24; 95%CI: 0.99-1.55) or obese (vs. normal; OR = 1.44; 95%CI: 1.09-1.89), having reported more than seven sexual partners in a lifetime (vs. < 3 partners; OR = 2.00; 95%CI: 1.49-2.68), and having reported more than 5 orgasms a month prior to PC diagnosis (vs. ≤3 orgasms; OR = 1.59; 95%CI: 1.18-2.15). PC risk was lower for men whose timing of puberty was later than their peers (vs. same as peers; OR = 0.75; 95%CI: 0.59-0.97), and a smaller risk reduction of was observed in men whose timing of puberty was earlier than their peers (vs. same as peers; OR = 0.85; 95%CI: 0.61-1.17). No associations were found between PC risk and vertex balding, erectile function, acne, circumcision, vasectomy, asthma or diabetes. These results support a role for adult body size, sexual activity, and adolescent sexual development in PC development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lung cancer screening with computerised tomography holds promise, but optimising the balance of benefits and harms via selection of a high risk population is critical. PLCO m2012 is a logistic regression model based on U.S. data, incorporating sociodemographic and health factors, which predicts 6-year lung cancer risk among ever-smokers, and thus may better predict those who might benefit from screening than criteria based solely on age and smoking history. We aimed to validate the performance of PLCO m2012 in predicting lung cancer outcomes in a cohort of Australian smokers. Predicted risk of lung cancer was calculated using PLCO m2012 applied to baseline data from 95,882 ever-smokers aged ≥45 years in the 45 and Up Study (2006-2009). Predictions were compared to lung cancer outcomes captured to June 2014 via linkage to population-wide health databases; a total of 1,035 subsequent lung cancer diagnoses were identified. PLCO m2012 had good discrimination (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic-curve; AUC 0.80, 95%CI 0.78-0.81) and excellent calibration (mean and 90th percentiles of absolute risk difference between observed and predicted outcomes: 0.006 and 0.016, respectively). Sensitivity (69.4%, 95%CI, 65.6-73.0%) of the PLCO m2012 criteria in the 55-74 year age group for predicting lung cancers was greater than that using criteria based on ≥30 pack-years smoking and ≤15 years quit (57.3%, 53.3-61.3%; p < 0.0001), but specificity was lower (72.0%, 71.7-72.4% versus 75.2%, 74.8-75.6%, respectively; p < 0.0001). Targeting high risk people for lung cancer screening using PLCO m2012 might improve the balance of benefits versus harms, and cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening., (© 2017 UICC.)