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The number and diversity of phenological studies has increased rapidly in recent years. Innovative experiments, field studies, citizen science projects, and analyses of newly available historical data are contributing insights that advance our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to the environment, particularly climate change. However, many phenological data sets have peculiarities that are not immediately obvious and can lead to mistakes in analyses and interpretation of results. This paper aims to help researchers, especially those new to the field of phenology, understand challenges and practices that are crucial for effective studies. For example, researchers may fail to account for sampling biases in phenological data, struggle to choose or design a volunteer data collection strategy that adequately fits their project's needs, or combine data sets in inappropriate ways. We describe ten best practices for designing studies of plant and animal phenology, evaluating data quality, and analyzing data. Practices include accounting for common biases in data, using effective citizen or community science methods, and employing appropriate data when investigating phenological mismatches. We present these best practices to help researchers entering the field take full advantage of the wealth of available data and approaches to advance our understanding of phenology and its implications for ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has significantly impacted vegetation phenology across the globe with vegetation experiencing an advance in the spring green-up phases and a delay in fall senescence. However, some studies from high latitudes and high elevations have instead shown delayed spring phenology, owing to a lack of chilling fulfillment and altered snow cover and photoperiods. Here we use the MODIS satellite-derived view-angle corrected surface reflectance data (MCD43A4) to document the four phenological phases in the high elevations of the Sikkim Himalaya and compared the phenological trends between below-treeline zones and above-treeline zones. This analysis of remotely sensed data for the study period (2001-2017) reveals considerable shifts in the phenology of the Sikkim Himalaya. Advances in the spring start of the season phase (SOS) were more pronounced than delays in the dates for maturity (MAT), senescence (EOS), and advanced dormancy (DOR). The SOS significantly advanced by 21.3 days while the MAT and EOS were delayed by 15.7 days and 6.5 days respectively over the 17-year study period. The DOR showed an advance of 8.2 days over the study period. The region below the treeline showed more pronounced shifts in phenology with respect to an advanced SOS and a delayed EOS and DOR that above treeline. The MAT, however, showed a greater delay in the zone above the treeline than below. Lastly, unlike other studies from high elevations, there is no indication that winter chilling requirements are driving the spring phenology in this region. We discuss four possible explanations for why vegetation phenology in the high elevations of the Eastern Himalaya may exhibit trends independent of chilling requirements and soil moisture due to mediation by snow cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has affected the breeding parameters of many animal species. In birds, most studies have focused on the effects of temperature on clutch phenology and clutch size. The long-term influence of other weather factors, including rainfall, on breeding parameters have been analysed much less often. Based on a 23-year dataset and 308 broods, we documented shifts in the timing of breeding, clutch size and mean egg volume in a long-distance migrant, the Red-backed Shrike Lanius collurio, from a central European population. We found a 5-day shift towards delayed breeding, but no differences in brood size or egg volume during those 23 years. The GLM analysis showed that the mean May temperature had a positive influence on the clutch initiation date, whereas the number of days with rain delayed laying. During the period 1999–2021, there was no change in the mean May temperature, but total precipitation and the number of days with rain in May increased. Thus, delayed nesting in this population was probably due to the increase in rainfall during this period. Our results provide a rare example of delayed nesting in birds in recent years. Predicted changes in the climate make it difficult to assess the long-term impact of global warming on the viability of Red-backed Shrike populations in east-central Poland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Documenting trends in the health impacts of ambient temperature is key to supporting adaptation strategies to climate change. This paper explores changes in the temperature-related mortality in 18 French urban centers between 1970 and 2015. Method: A multicentric time-series design with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models was adopted to model the shape of the relationship and assess temporal changes in risks and impacts. Results: The general shape of the temperature-mortality relationship did not change over time, except for an increasing risk at very low percentiles and a decreasing risk at very high percentiles. The relative risk at the 99.9th percentile compared to the 50th percentile of the 1970–2015 temperature distribution decreased from 2.33 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.95:2.79] in 1975 to 1.33 [95% CI: 1.14:1.55] in 2015. Between 1970 and 2015, 302,456 [95% CI: 292,723:311,392] deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperatures, corresponding to 5.5% [95% CI: 5.3:5.6] of total mortality. This burden decreased progressively, representing 7.2% [95% CI: 6.7:7.7] of total mortality in the 1970s to 3.4% [95% CI: 3.2:3.6] in the 2000s. However, the contribution of hot temperatures to this burden (higher than the 90th percentile) increased. Discussion: Despite the decreasing relative risk, the fraction of mortality attributable to extreme heat increased between 1970 and 2015, thus highlighting the need for proactive adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical inland capture fisheries are susceptible to a series of vulnerabilities such as habitat destruction, biodiversity loss, pollution, overfishing, invasive species and anthropogenic climate change. A comprehensive review of the impact of climatic uncertainties on Indian inland fisheries has not been adequately attempted yet. Recent approaches emphasizing ecosystem-based management in a regional context, specific to inland fisheries for combating climatic changes, have not been reported to date. The paper presents a critical bibliometric review of the climatic vulnerabilities faced by Indian inland fishery resources and various adaptive and mitigation strategies put forward by the country for the sustainability of the resources. In this communication, a systematic review of the impact of climate change and other stressors on various inland ecosystems of the subcontinent and the ecosystem-based management strategies adopted in India is presented and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to global climate change, droughts are likely to become more frequent and more severe in many regions such as in South Africa. In Limpopo, observed high climate variability and projected future climate change will likely increase future maize production risks. This paper evaluates drought patterns in Limpopo at two representative sites. We studied how drought patterns are projected to change under future climatic conditions as an important step in identifying adaptation measures (e.g., breeding maize ideotypes resilient to future conditions). Thirty-year time horizons were analyzed, considering three emission scenarios and five global climate models. We applied the WOFOST crop model to simulate maize crop growth and yield formation over South Africa's summer season. We considered three different crop emergence dates. Drought indices indicated that mainly in the scenario SSP5-8.5 (2051–2080), Univen and Syferkuil will experience worsened drought conditions (DC) in the future. Maize yield tends to decline and future changes in the emergence date seem to impact yield significantly. A possible alternative is to delay sowing date to November or December to reduce the potential yield losses. The grain filling period tends to decrease in the future, and a decrease in the duration of the growth cycle is very likely. Combinations of changed sowing time with more drought tolerant maize cultivars having a longer post-anthesis phase will likely reduce the potential negative impact of climate change on maize. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overlap region between the eastern fringe of the Asian westerly region and the temperate continental-monsoon climate transition zone is sensitive to climate changes and is characterized by fragile ecosystems. Uncovering the long-term historical climate variability patterns in this region is necessary. A standardized tree-ring width chronology was constructed based on the tree-ring samples collected from four representative tree species in four typical areas in the overlap region, and the 203- to 343-year annual mean minimum temperature series in the overlap region were reconstructed. The reconstructed series overlapped well with extreme climate events and low-temperature periods recorded in historical data. Therefore, the reconstructed model is stable and reliable. As suggested by the reconstructed series, the annual average minimum temperature in the overlap region changes sharply from east to west, and the periodicity change in the overlap region shows a trend of gradually weakening from the east and west ends to the middle. In the nineteenth century, the high-latitude area was in the high-temperature period, and the entire overlap region experienced significant low-temperature periods lasting 20–45 years until the 1950s. The western part had an earlier low-temperature period start time, a longer cooling duration, and a slower cooling rate than the central part. The overlap region experienced a significant warming period in approximately the last half-century, with temperatures increasing faster in the western and eastern parts than in the central part. The temperature variability in the overlap region was more intense in the last two centuries, with shorter periodicities and a larger proportion of cold periods. The central and western parts of the Asian westerly region, the mid- to high-latitude regions of the transition zone, and the overlap region experienced significant low-temperature periods or drastic cooling trends (the Little Ice Age) in the first half of the nineteenth century and significant warming trends afterwards due to global warming. The influences of these changes may have been exacerbated by the westerly circulation. The results of this study provide new insights into the use of dendroclimatology to extract temperature series in the Asian westerly region and the transition zone and a reference for research on global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the crop response to elevated carbon dioxide (e[CO2]) condition is important and has attracted considerable interest owing to the variability and crop-specific response. In mungbean, reports are available regarding the effect of e[CO2] on its growth, physiology and yield. However, no information are available on the germination and vigour status of seeds produced at e[CO2]. Therefore, in the present investigation, mungbean (Virat) was grown in the open top chamber during summer season of 2018 and 2019 to study the implications of e[CO2] (600 ppm) on quality of the harvested seeds (germination and vigour). The exposure of mungbean plant to e[CO2] had no major impact on seed quality as the percent viability (normal seedling + hard seeds) was not reduced. However, in one season (2018), the seed germination (normal seedling) was slightly reduced from 72 to 68%, attributed majorly to an increase in the hard seeds (from 13 to 19%), a predominant form of seed dormancy in mungbean. The changes in seed germination were apparent only in first year of the experiment. Accelerated ageing test (AAT) and storage studies revealed no differences in the vigour of seeds produced at ambient and e[CO2] environments. Also, the seeds from e[CO2] had low protein and sugar but recorded higher starch content than the seeds from ambient [CO2]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Publications on ambient temperature-related mortality among Arctic or subarctic populations are extremely rare. While circumpolar areas cover large portions of several European countries, Canada, and the USA, the population of these territories is relatively small, and the data needed for statistical analysis of the health impacts of extreme temperature events are frequently insufficient. This study utilizes standard time series regression techniques to estimate relative increases in cause- and age-specific daily mortality rates during heat waves and cold spells in four Russian cities with a subarctic climate. The statistical significance of the obtained effect estimates tends to be greater in the continental climate than in the marine climate. A small meta-analysis was built around the obtained site-specific health effects. The effects were homogeneous and calculated for the selected weather-dependent health outcomes. The relative risks of mortality due to ischemic heart disease, all diseases of the circulatory system, and all non-accidental causes during cold spells in the age group ≥ 65 years were 1.20 (95% CI: 1.11–1.29), 1.14 (1.08–1.20), and 1.12 (1.07–1.17), respectively. Cold spells were more harmful to the health of the residents of Murmansk, Archangelsk, and Magadan than heat waves, and only in Yakutsk, heat waves were more dangerous. The results of this study can help the public health authorities develop specific measures for the prevention of excess deaths during cold spells and heat waves in the exposed subarctic populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the mid-summer month of January each year, the migrating brown-veined white butterflies (Belenois aurota, Fabricius, 1973) move through Johannesburg, South Africa, on their path from the Karoo to Mozambique. The result is a short period of approximately 3 days during which the skies of Johannesburg are filled with white butterflies, a spectacle that has been recorded in print media over the past century, and social media over the past decade. In this study, we mine these traditional and social media archives to produce the first multi-decadal phenological record of butterfly migration timing for South Africa, and explore the changes in timing and the role of climate thereof. We find a statistically significant advance in timing at a rate of 2.9 days per decade (r = 0.34, p = 0.0490). The climatic drivers of shifts in migratory species arrival are difficult to detect, as they involve the role of weather at the point of departure in determining the start of flight, and the weather en route to determine the path followed. However, statistically significant relationships are found between the arrival dates and both Tmin and precipitation in the month of December, and the combination thereof (r = 0.44, p = 0.0437 and r = 0.45, p = 0.0420 respectively). The findings of this study contribute to a growing literature documenting phenological shifts in South Africa, a previously under-represented region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evident climate jump after 2000 in China may have greatly influenced the production of winter wheat, which is one of the nation's major grain crops. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on winter wheat production and identify the climatic factors primarily responsible, we used daily meteorological data from 2244 stations and integrated indicators to examine the decadal changes in the potential plantable zone (PPZ), growth periods, and climatic suitability for winter wheat in China from 1985 to 1999 and from 2000 to 2014. The results showed the following: (1) The PPZ has decreased by approximately 9%, and the main reason may be the increased frequency of extreme cold events in northern China from 2000 to 2014. (2) In most of the PPZ, the suitable sowing date has been delayed, the potential maturity date has advanced, and total days during the potential growing season have significantly decreased because of the increasing temperature. (3) The suitable area and optimal area of winter wheat have significantly decreased by 9% and 13%, respectively. The changes in climatic suitability are affected by both temperature and radiation in the north, whereas the impact is more from precipitation in the south. The climate may be changing in a direction unsuitable for winter wheat. As global warming and climate extremes intensify in the future, winter wheat production may become more challenging, and adequate measures should be adopted to guarantee reliable and high yields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem carbon balance might be affected by the variability of seasonal distribution of precipitation under global climate change. Using the eddy covariance (EC) technique, long-term observations of ecosystem net CO2 exchange (NEE) were acquired over Lijiang alpine meadow in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau from January 2014 to August 2019. During the wet season (from June to October), Lijiang meadow functioned as a carbon sink (− 37.6 ± 22.5 g C m−2 month−1), while in dry season, the meadow varied between a weak carbon source and sink with an average monthly NEE of − 3.9 ± 11.9 g C m−2 month−1. Monthly CO2 fluxes were mainly controlled by air temperature and soil water content. A large annual variation of CO2 uptake was observed. The annual NEE was − 140.3 g C m−2 year−1 in 2014 while − 247.0 g C m−2 year−1 in 2016. Correspondingly, the precipitation in wet season accounted 90% of annual precipitation in 2014 and 74% of that in 2016 despite the annual precipitation was larger than 1200 mm in both years. More precipitation in dry season can lead to longer period of net CO2 uptake, while more precipitation concentrated in wet season depressed the meadow's light response through the decrease of the magnitude of light-saturated net CO2 exchange (NEEsat) at the onset and the end of growing season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat stress in combination with drought has become the biggest concern and threat for maize yield production, especially in arid and hot regions. Accordingly, different optimal solutions should be considered in order to maintain maize production and reduce the risk of heat stress under the changing climate. In the current study, the risk of heat stress across Iranian maize agro-ecosystems was analyzed in terms of both intensity and frequency. The study areas comprised 16 provinces and 24 locations classified into five climate categories: arid and hot, arid and temperate, semi-arid and hot, semi-arid and temperate, and semi-arid and cold. The impact of heat stress on maize under a future climate was based on a 5‐multi‐model ensemble under two optimistic and pessimistic emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) for 2040–2070 using the APSIM crop model. Simulation results illustrated that in the period of 2040–2070, intensity and the frequency of heat stress events increased by 2.37 °C and 79.7%, respectively, during maize flowering time compared to the baseline. The risk of heat stress would be almost 100% in hot regions in the future climate under current management practices, mostly because of the increasing high-risk window for heat stress which will result in a yield reduction of 0.83 t ha−1. However, under optimal management practices,farmers will economically obtain acceptable yields (6.6 t ha−1). The results also indicated that the high-risk windows in the future will be lengthening from 12 to 33 days in different climate types. Rising temperatures in cold regions as a result of global warming would provide better climate situations for maize growth, so that under optimistic emission scenarios and optimal management practices, farmers will be able to boost grain yield up to 9.2 t ha−1. Overall, it is concluded that farmers in hot and temperate regions need to be persuaded to choose optimal sowing dates and new maize cultivars which are well adapted to each climate to reduce heat stress risk and to shift maize production to cold regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land cover change (LCC) significantly changed the local/regional temperature. This paper attempts to reveal the effects of cropland expansion in different ways on temperature change from the 1900s to 2010s in Heilongjiang Province. To reach this goal, we conducted four simulation research schemes with the coupled Weather Research and Forecast (WRF)-Noah model to investigate the warming/cooling effect of cropland expansion. The results show that cropland expansion exerted different effects with different land-use type conversions. In the last century, the areas with grassland-to-cropland and wetland-to-cropland transition show the warming effect, and the average surface temperature in Heilongjiang Province increased by 0.023 ℃ and 0.024 ℃, respectively. The areas with forest-to-cropland transition show the cooling effect, in which the average temperature decreased by 0.103 ℃. The variation of air temperature is mainly caused by the variation of surface reflectance and surface net radiation flux. The results provide evidence that cropland expansion changes to biophysical landscape characteristics, warming/cooling the land surface and thus enhancing/reducing the temperature, and lead to regional climate change eventually. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetland fisheries are most vulnerable to climate and anthropogenic change, and therefore, vulnerability assessment is essential for the formulation of prudent management strategies. In the present study, vulnerability assessment was carried out in nine floodplain wetlands from three districts of West Bengal using stakeholder perception and ecological conditions. In absence of long-term time series data on ecology and fisheries of wetlands, stakeholder perception study was carried out to assess the vulnerability status to climate change. Phased interviews were conducted using structured questionnaires to study the stakeholder perception on climatic variability and changes in ecology and fisheries of wetlands over the past 15 years. Climate data used for climate trend analysis was procured from Indian Meteorological Department. Ecological parameters were studied from the wetlands seasonally from January 2018 to December 2018. Analysis of climatic variables for last three decades revealed a warming trend and decreasing rainfall in the study area. The temperature anomaly ranged from + 0.07 to + 0.31 °C while rainfall anomaly ranged from − 61.41 to − 372.62 mm. Respondents showed high level of consensus (75.3%) on climate change awareness. The respondents were aware of the fact that climate anomaly affects ecology and fisheries of wetlands in most of the cases with consensus ranging from 67.8 to 94.7%. The studied wetlands showed 2 to 81.28% reduction in depth, 21.52–61.29% reduction in species diversity, and 30–95% macrophyte infestation. The stakeholder perception-based vulnerability scores ranged from 18 to 31 and indicated 6 out of 9 wetlands (66.6%) as highly vulnerable and the rest as moderately vulnerable. The ecological vulnerability scores ranged from 17 to 21 and indicated 5 out of 9 wetlands (55.6%) as highly vulnerable and 4 wetlands in the moderately vulnerable range. Although both the approaches used in the present study categorized the studied wetlands as moderately to highly vulnerable, the category of some of the wetlands varied in both the approaches. This suggests that utilizing a single approach may not give precise vulnerability status of an ecosystem. Use of combined approaches for construction of a composite vulnerability index covering different aspects impacted by climate change might present a better picture of the vulnerability status and aid in formulation of effective mitigation/management plan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia's primary production sector operates in one of the world's most variable climates with future climate change posing a challenge to its ongoing sustainability. Recognising this, Australia has invested in understanding climate change risks to primary production with a substantial amount of research produced. Recently, focus on this research space has broadened, with interests from the financial sector and expanded scopes of works from government and industry. These expanded needs require sector- and country-wide assessments to assist with the implementation of climate strategies. We considered the applicability of the current research body for these needs by reviewing 188 peer-reviewed studies that considered the quantitative impacts of climate change on Australia's primary industries. Our broad review includes cropping, livestock, horticulture, forestry and fisheries and biosecurity threats. This is the first such review for Australia, and no other similar country-wide review was found. We reviewed the studies through three lenses, industry diversity, geographic coverage and study comparability. Our results show that all three areas are lacking for sector- and country-wide assessments. Industry diversity was skewed towards cropping and biosecurity threats (64% of all studies) with wheat in particular a major focus (25% of all studies). Geographic coverage at a state level appeared to be evenly distributed across the country; however, when considered in conjunction with industry focus, gaps emerged. Study comparability was found to be very limited due to the use of different historical baseline periods and different impact models. We make several recommendations to assist with future research directions, being (1) co-development of a standard set of method guidelines for impact assessments, (2) filling industry and geographic knowledge gaps, and (3) improving transparency in study method descriptions. Uptake of these recommendations will improve study application and transparency enabling and enhancing responses to climate change in Australia's primary industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leisure walking is affected by meteorological conditions. However, it is still not clear what scales of meteorological conditions and thermal status affect the number of people who choose to leisure walk. Using a time series regression, this study examines the heat—leisure walking relationship by analyzing the effect of the seasons, weather, microclimate, and outdoor thermal comfort on walking count. Eight thermal indexes were selected to estimate the pedestrians' thermal comfort, and their predictive capacities in walking count were evaluated. Particular consideration was given to identifying heat thresholds of walking that determined the tolerance range of pedestrian heat stress. Four years of hourly daytime walking counts and publicly available ASOS meteorological data at Seoul-lo 7017, a pedestrian bridge in Seoul, were used for the analysis. Our findings indicate that walking count is correlated with seasonal climatic variations, with the highest number of pedestrians observed in fall and the lowest in summer. Moreover, air temperature played a vital role, showing that a 5.0 °C rise in temperature was associated with a 1.34% rise in the square root of the walking count. Its impact becomes greater when combined with intense solar radiation and higher absolute humidity. The heat threshold for walking was between 23.8 °C and 26.2 °C. Empirical model indexes showed the highest predictive capacity in walking count at approximately 30.0%, which was followed by rational model indexes at 28.0%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under-five years old acute watery diarrhea (U5AWD) accounts for most diarrheal diseases' burden, but little is known about the adjusted effect of meteorological and socioeconomic determinants. A dataset containing the seasonal numbers of U5AWD cases at the district level of Iran is collected through MOHME. Accordingly, the district-level standardized incidence ratio and Moran's I values are calculated to detect the significant clusters of U5AWD over sixteen seasons from 2014 to 2018. Additionally, the author tested twelve Bayesian hierarchical models in order to determine which one was the most accurate at forecasting seasonal number of incidents. Iran features a number of U5AWD hotspots, particularly in the southeast. An extended spatiotemporal model with seasonally varying coefficients and space–time interaction outperformed other models, and so became the paper's proposal in modeling U5AWD. Temperature demonstrated a global positive connection with seasonal U5AWD in districts (IRR: 1.0497; 95% CrI: 1.0254–1.0748), owing to its varying effects during the winter ((IRR: 1.0877; 95% CrI: 1.0408–1.1375) and fall (IRR: 1.0866; 95% CrI: 1.0405–1.1357) seasons. Also, elevation (IRR: 0.9997; 95% CrI: 0.9996–0.9998), piped drinking water (IRR: 0.9948; 95% CrI: 0.9933–0.9964), public sewerage network (IRR: 0.9965; 95% CrI: 0.9938–0.9992), years of schooling (IRR: 0.9649; 95% CrI: 0.944–0.9862), infrastructure-to-household size ratio (IRR: 0.9903; 95% CrI: 0.986–0.9946), wealth index (IRR: 0.9502; 95% CrI: 0.9231–0.9781), and urbanization (IRR: 0.9919; 95% CrI: 0.9893–0.9944) of districts were negatively associated with seasonal U5AWD incidence. Strategically, developing geoinformation alarm systems based on meteorological data might help predict U5AWD high-risk areas. The study also anticipates increased rates of U5AWD in districts with poor sanitation and socioeconomic level. Therefore, governments should take appropriate preventative actions in these sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: No studies focused on impact of temperature changes between neighboring days (TCN) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) hospital admissions among suburban farmers although CVD has been the main cause to global mortality and disability especially in undeveloped and developing countries/areas. Method: Daily data of CVD hospital admissions on suburban farmers and daily data of meteorology in Qingyang (China) were collected during 2011–2015. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to explore the exposure–response relations and lagged effects between TCN and CVD hospital admissions with stratified analyses by age and gender. Extreme low TCN effects and burden analysis were conducted. Results: Based on 25,984 cases in Qingyang (China) during 2011–2015 among suburban farmers, we found that, first, nonlinear relationship was observed between TCN and CVD hospital admissions and adverse impact in negative TCN (temperature dropping between neighboring days) while protective effect in positive TCN (temperature rising between neighboring days) were discovered; third, during lag0–27, the cumulative relative risk (RR) for extreme low TCN (5th percentile, − 3.5 °C) and extreme high TCN (95th percentile, 3 °C) was 29.55 (95% CI 4.709–185.436) and 0.040 (95% CI 0.009–0.169), respectively; fourth, the age < 65 and females were more vulnerable to negative TCN than the age ≥ 65 and males among suburban farmers, respectively; last, moderate low TCN contributed the most fractions and numbers on CVD hospital admissions. Conclusions: Among Qingyang suburban farmers in Northwest China, negative TCN should be paid more attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenology has emerged as a key metric to measure how species respond to changes in climate. Innovative means have been developed to extend the temporal and spatial range of phenological data by obtaining data from herbarium specimens, citizen science programs, and biodiversity data repositories. These different data types have seldom been compared for their effectiveness in detecting environmental impacts on phenology. To address this, we compare three separate phenology datasets from Denmark: (i) herbarium specimen data spanning 145 years, (ii) data collected from a citizen science phenology program over a single year observing first flowering, and (iii) data derived from incidental biodiversity observations in iNaturalist over a single year. Each dataset includes flowering day of year observed for three common spring-flowering plant species: Allium ursinum (ramsons), Aesculus hippocastanum (horse chestnut), and Sambucus nigra (black elderberry). The incidental iNaturalist dataset provided the most extensive geographic coverage across Denmark and the largest sample size and recorded peak flowering in a way comparable to herbarium specimens. The directed citizen science dataset recorded much earlier flowering dates because the program objective was to report the first flowering, and so was less compared to the other two datasets. Herbarium data demonstrated the strongest effect of spring temperature on flowering in Denmark, possibly because it was the only dataset measuring temporal variation in phenology, while the other datasets measured spatial variation. Herbarium data predicted the mean flowering day of year recorded in our iNaturalist dataset for all three species. Combining herbarium data with iNaturalist data provides an even more effective method for detecting climatic effects on phenology. Phenology observations from directed and incidental citizen science initiatives will increase in value for climate change research in the coming years with the addition of data capturing the inter-annual variation in phenology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The association between various meteorological parameters and crime is well-established in developed contexts. In contrast in this study, we investigated the association between three weather parameters (temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) and three categories of crime in the developing township of Khayelitsha, in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. Distributed lag non-linear modelling was used to identify temporal relationships between temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, and violent, property and sexual crime over a 10-year period (2006–2016). We found hot days (defined as ≥ 25 °C) increased the cumulative relative risk of violent crime by up to 32% but were also found to be associated with a lagged increase in violent crime for at least a week thereafter. On very cold days (defined as ≤ 7 ∘ C ), the cumulative relative risk of property crime increased by up to 50% whereas on very rainy days (defined as ≥ 20 mm ) the risk of property crime surprisingly increased by 40%. These findings provide some additional evidence for the relationship between the atmospheric environment and human behaviour in a developing context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freshwater catfishes are regarded primarily as a source of food and sport, so they are highly valuable economically. We comprehensively studied life history features of Mystus vittatus, including sex ratio (SR), population structure, growth pattern, condition, form factor (a3.0), sexual maturity (Lm), spawning season, fecundity, mortality (i.e., total mortality (Z), natural-mortality (MW), and fishing mortality (F)), optimum catchable length (Lopt), length at first capture (Lc), and environmental factors (temperature and rainfall) with management policies from the Ganges River during July 2017 to June 2018. SR (1:1.48) differed noticeably from the expected 1:1 ratio (p < 0.05). Total length (TL) ranged from 6.80–16.00 cm for males and 6.53–18.80 cm for females. The growth was negative allometric for both sexes. Fulton's condition factor was the best one and mean relative weight showed no significant difference from 100 for both sexes that indicates balanced population. Lm was 9.60, 9.70, and 8.80 cm based on the gonadosomatic index (GSI), logistic, and maximum length (Lmax), respectively. Spawning season was April to September and the peak was May to July. Fecundity varied from 5942 to 49,852 (mean ± SD, 11,898 ± 5028) and a positively correlated with TL and BW. Z was 1.80 year−1, Mw was 0.97 year−1, and F was 0.83 year−1. Lopt was 11.14 cm (TL) and Lc was ~ 8.47 cm (TL). Temperature and rainfall both were significantly related with GSI and suitable range of temperature and rainfall for spawning of M. vittatus was 28–34 °C and 200–390 mm, respectively. Long data series pointed that average air temperature was increasing and rainfall was decreasing. By considering all of the above parameters, we can take the proper management actions for M. vittatus and other freshwater catfishes on the Indian sub-continent, to ensure long-term self-sustainability and sustainable harvest for the benefit of fishers and communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Apple phenology is greatly influenced by temperature. For quality apple production in the orchards, knowledge of the real timing of phenological stages is essential for scientific management decisions. In the Kashmir region, the year 2017 had a normal weather phenomenon, whereas the year 2018 had an erratic weather phenomenon wherein unusually high temperatures prevailed in the winter months and may be a clear sign of climate change effect. Due to this higher temperature in winter months of the year 2018 before bud break, earliness of phenological stages happened as compared to the year 2017, viz. silver tip stage by 5.67 days, green tip stage by 6.61 days, pink bud stage by 10.09 days, initial bloom by 10.43 days, full bloom by 9.70 days, and petal fall by 8.00 days. The flowering duration was overall recorded 2.43 days more in 2018 as compared to that in 2017. Due to the earliness of phenological stages in 2018, all twenty-five cultivars of the apple remained at high risk of spring frost and scientific apple orchard interventions were badly hit as growers were surprised and unprepared. The information generated will be very useful for growers, students, researchers, policy makers, and all the concerned stakeholders to understand how apple phenology responds to normal and extreme erratic weather conditions and may happen more frequently in the future due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The annual Namaqualand daisy flowering spectacle is a world-renowned environmental event. Using documentary sources, including newspaper archives from The Rand Daily Mail, Volksblad and Die Burger and social media records from Flickr and iNaturalist, the first long-term phenological dataset spanning 1935–2018 was compiled for the Namaqualand region. The dataset contains first flowering, full bloom and end of bloom dates for the Namaqualand daisies. This study explores shifts in the timing of Namaqualand daisy bloom, and the role of climate in driving these phenological shifts. First flowering and full bloom phenology of the Namaqualand daisies are advancing at statistically significant rates of 2.6 days decade−1 and 2.1 days decade−1 respectively. Climatic data from seven Namaqualand weather stations, collectively spanning 1959–2018, were interrogated. For the periods spanned by both climate and phenology data, the relationships between the two were explored. Increasing temperatures are driving the calculated advances of the daisy flowering dates at statistically significant rates of change ranging from 0.01 to 0.11 days °C−1. The main climate drivers of Namaqualand daisy flowering phenology are winter and spring temperatures, the onset of the winter rainy season during April and May, and total winter precipitation. The rates of advance and climate drivers are broadly consistent with global phenological meta-analyses and records for the Southern Hemisphere. The advances in the timing of Namaqualand daisy flowering will have a significant impact on the tourism sector in the region, as flower viewing tours need to be prearranged months in advance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The phenology of vegetation, namely leaf-out and senescence, can influence the Earth's climate over regional spatial scales and long time periods (e.g., over 30 years or more), in addition to microclimates over local spatial scales and shorter time periods (weeks to months). However, the effects of flowers on climate and microclimate are unknown. We investigate whether flowers can influence light reflected by the land surface and soil microclimate in a subalpine meadow. We conducted a flower removal experiment with a common sunflower species, Helianthella quinquenervis, for 3 years (2015, 2017, and 2019). The flower removal treatment simulates the appearance of the meadow when Helianthella flowers earlier under climate change and loses its flowers to frost (other plant structures are not damaged by frost). We test the hypotheses that a reduction in cover of yellow flowers leads to a greener land surface, lower reflectance, warmer and drier soils, and increased plant water stress. Flower removal plots are greener, reflect less light, exhibit up to 1.2 °C warmer soil temperatures during the warmest daylight hours, and contain ca. 1% less soil moisture compared to controls. However, soils were warmer in only 2 of the 3 years, when flower abundance was high. Helianthella water use efficiency did not differ between removal and control plots. Our study provides evidence for a previously undocumented effect of flowers on soil microclimate, an effect that is likely mediated by climate change and flowering phenology. Many anthropogenic environmental changes alter landscape albedo, all of which could be mediated by flowers: climate change, plant invasions, and agriculture. This study highlights how further consideration of the effects of flowers on land surface albedo could improve our understanding of the effects of vegetation on microclimate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An experiment was conducted in the Free Air Ozone and Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FAOCE) facility to study the impact of elevated O3, CO2 and their interaction on chickpea crop (cv. Pusa-5023) in terms of phenology, biophysical parameters, yield components, radiation interception and use efficiency. The crop was exposed to elevated O3 (EO:60ppb), CO2 (EC:550 ppm) and their combined interactive treatment (ECO: EC+EO) during the entire growing season. Results revealed that the crop's total growth period was shortened by 10, 14 and 17 days under elevated CO2, elevated O3 and the combined treatment, respectively. Compared to ambient condition, the leaf area index (LAI) under elevated CO2 was higher by 4 to 28%, whilst it is reduced by 7.3 to 23.8% under elevated O3. The yield based radiation use efficiency (RUEy) was highest under elevated CO2 (0.48 g MJ−1), followed by combined (0.41 g MJ−1), ambient (0.38 g MJ−1) and elevated O3 (0.32 g MJ−1) treatments. Elevated O3 decreased RUEy by 15.78% over ambient, and the interaction results in a 7.8% higher RUEy. The yield was 31.7% more under elevated CO2 and 21.9% lower in elevated O3 treatment as compared to the ambient. The combined interactive treatment recorded a higher yield as compared to ambient by 9.7%. Harvest index (HI) was lowest under elevated O3 (36.10%), followed by ambient (39.18%), combined (40.81%), and highest was under elevated CO2 (44.18%). Chickpea showed a positive response to elevated CO2 resulting a 5% increase in HI as compared to ambient condition. Our findings quantified the positive and negative impacts of elevated O3, CO2 and their interaction on chickpea and revealed that the negative impacts of elevated O3 can be compensated by elevated CO2 in chickpea. This work promotes the understanding of crop behaviour under elevated O3, CO2 and their interaction, which can be used as valuable inputs for radiation-based crop simulation models to simulate climate change impact on chickpea crop. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological shifts in plant species are one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change impact on the biosphere. Modeling phenological variations of plant species over broad regions is challenging because of the varied climatic requirements of geographic populations due to local adaptation. In this study, we developed an empirical method to calibrate phenological models of temperate trees using latitude as a predictor to account for local adaptation of populations to a N–S temperature gradient. Fourteen widely distributed tree species in the eastern U.S.A. were investigated using data from the USA-National Phenology Network. We implemented the method in a basic thermal time bud break model to introduce the algorithm of the method and test its effectiveness. For each species, dates of breaking leaf buds were first predicted using a traditional non-spatial model and then with a spatial model that has the critical thermal forcing requirements calibrated for different populations at varied latitudes. As anticipated, non-spatial model predictions that assumed a uniform forcing requirement across latitudes showed consistent and systematic biases at both higher (overestimation-predictions being later) and lower (underestimation-predictions being earlier) latitudes. Spatial models that have been calibrated using our method removed the geographic biases and yielded latitudinal gradients that more closely matched those of the observations. The spatial models also reduced the overall prediction errors from an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 32.2 days to 20.4 days for the training dataset and an average root mean square error for prediction (RMSEP) of 32.2 days to 19.9 days for the testing dataset. This paper is focused on introducing the new calibration method as a preparatory step toward developing operational models that may potentially predict large-scale and range-wide phenological responses of various plant species to climatic changes with improved local accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The twig method in climate chambers has been shown to successfully work as a proxy for outdoor manipulations in various experimental setups. This study was conducted to further establish this method for the investigation of allergenic pollen from tree species (hazel, alder, and birch). Direct comparison under outdoor conditions revealed that the cut twigs compared to donor trees were similar in the timing of flowering and the amount of pollen produced. Cut twigs were able to flower in climate chambers and produced a sufficient amount of pollen for subsequent laboratory analysis. The addition of different plant or tissue fertilizers in the irrigation of the twigs did not have any influence; rather, the regular exchange of water and the usage of fungicide were sufficient for reaching the stage of flowering. In the experimental setup, the twigs were cut in different intervals before the actual flowering and were put under warming conditions in the climate chamber. An impact of warming on the timing of flowering/pollen characteristics could be seen for the investigated species. Therefore, the twig method is well applicable for experimental settings in pollen research simulating, e.g., accelerated warming under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a global public health challenge. The changes in climatic factors affect the pattern and burden of tuberculosis, which is a worldwide public health problem affecting low and middle-income countries. However, the evidence related to the impact of climate change on tuberculosis is few and far between. This study is a scoping review following a five-stage version of Arksey and O'Malley's method. We searched the literature using the keywords and their combination in Google scholar, and PubMed. Climate change affects tuberculosis through diverse pathways: changes in climatic factors like temperature, humidity, and precipitation influence host response through alterations in vitamin D distribution, ultraviolet radiation, malnutrition, and other risk factors. The rise in extreme climatic events induces population displacement resulting in a greater number of vulnerable and risk populations of tuberculosis. It creates a conducive environment of tuberculosis transmission and development of active tuberculosis and disrupts tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment services. Therefore, it stands to reasons that climate change affects tuberculosis, particularly in highly vulnerable countries and areas. However, further studies and novel methodologies are required to address such a complex relationship and better understand the occurrence of tuberculosis attributable to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate and weather directly impact plant phenology, affecting airborne pollen. The objective of this systematic review is to examine the impacts of meteorological variables on airborne pollen concentrations and pollen season timing. Using PRISMA methodology, we reviewed literature that assessed whether there was a relationship between local temperature and precipitation and measured airborne pollen. The search strategy included terms related to pollen, trends or measurements, and season timing. For inclusion, studies must have conducted a correlation analysis of at least 5 years of airborne pollen data to local meteorological data and report quantitative results. Data from peer-reviewed articles were extracted on the correlations between seven pollen indicators (main pollen season start date, end date, peak date, and length, annual pollen integral, average daily pollen concentration, and peak pollen concentration), and two meteorological variables (temperature and precipitation). Ninety-three articles were included in the analysis out of 9,679 articles screened. Overall, warmer temperatures correlated with earlier and longer pollen seasons and higher pollen concentrations. Precipitation had varying effects on pollen concentration and pollen season timing indicators. Increased precipitation may have a short-term effect causing low pollen concentrations potentially due to "wash out" effect. Long-term effects of precipitation varied for trees and weeds and had a positive correlation with grass pollen levels. With increases in temperature due to climate change, pollen seasons for some taxa in some regions may start earlier, last longer, and be more intense, which may be associated with adverse health impacts, as pollen exposure has well-known health effects in sensitized individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the interactive effects and relationships between biochemical elements of tea leaves and the related factors, particularly climatic, cultivar, and geographic, is key for high-quality Ceylon tea production. The objectives of this study were to (1) investigate the effects of season × cultivar × agro-ecological regions (AERs) on the four tested biochemicals in fresh tea leaves, total polyphenol content (TPC), free sugar, protein, and theanine; (2) determine the relationships between, and develop a model to estimate, the biochemicals and their related factors; and (3) project the potential concentrations and distributions of four tested biochemicals in tea leaves with respect to the current and future climate. This study primarily uses inferential statistics via the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), cross-validation using R software, and the inverse distance weighting (IDW) approach in ArcGIS. The results demonstrate that the season, cultivar (Ceylon tea cultivars of TRI 2025 and TRI 4053), and AER and their interactions on biochemicals have significant effects (p < 0.05). The models derived in the regression analysis demonstrate the strong relationships between the independent variables and the biochemicals, with multiple correlation coefficients (R) around 0.8 and coefficient of determination (R2) around 0.6. The low standard deviation of error of prediction (SDEP < 0.1) and the high correlation coefficient of leave-one-out cross-validation (Q2) for all four biochemicals ranged from 0.56 to 0.61, which signifies the predictive ability of the models. The future projections show a considerable increase in the thresholds of all tested biochemicals. The distribution category with 'very high' concentrations of TPC and theanine is predicted to increase in the future by averages of 10% and 14%, respectively, while reducing the classes of protein and free sugar by 14% and 12%, respectively. Overall, the changing concentrations of the thresholds of relevant biochemicals and their distribution will negatively affect the final quality of tea, and these variations indicate that climate change has started to diminish Ceylon tea quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses how recent trends in heat waves impact heat warning systems. We performed a retrospective analysis of the challenges faced by the French heat prevention plan since 2004. We described trends based on the environmental and health data collected each summer by the French heat warning system and prevention plan. Major evolutions of the system were tracked based on the evaluations organized each autumn with the stakeholders of the prevention plan. Excess deaths numbering 8000 were observed during heat waves between 2004 and 2019, 71% of these between 2015 and 2019. We observed major changes in the characteristics, frequency and the geographical spread of heat waves since 2015. Feedbacks led to several updates of the warning system such as the extension of the surveillance period. They also revealed that risk perception remained limited among the population and the stakeholders. The sharp increase in the number of heat warnings issued per year since 2015 challenges the acceptability of the heat warnings. Recent heat waves without historical equivalent interfere with the development of evidence-based prevention strategies. The growing public health impacts heat waves emphasize the urgent need to act to adapt the population, at different levels of intervention, from individual comportments to structural modifications. A specific attention should be given to increase the resources allocated to the evaluation and the management of heat-related risks, especially considering the needs to catch with the rapid rhythm of the changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both global climate change and urbanization trends will demand adaptation measures in cities. Large agglomerations and impacts on landscape and natural environments due to city growth will require guided densification schemes in urban areas, particularly in developing countries. Human biometeorological indices such as the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) could guide this process, as they provide a clear account of expected effects on thermal sensation from a given change in outdoor settings. However, an earlier step should optimally include an adequacy test of suggested comfort and thermal stress ranges with calibration procedures based on surveys with the target population. This paper compares obtained thermal comfort ranges for three different locations in Brazil: Belo Horizonte, 20° S, Aw climate type; Curitiba, 25.5° S, Cfb subtropical climate, both locations in elevation (above 900 m a.s.l.); and Pelotas, at sea level, latitude 32° S, with a Cfa climate type. In each city, a set of outdoor comfort field campaigns has been carried out according to similar procedures, covering a wide range of climatic conditions over different seasons of the year. Obtained results indicate a variation of neutral temperatures up to 3 °C (UTCI units) as a possible latitude and local climate effect between the southern locations relative to the northernmost location. Low UTCI values were found in the two subtropical locations for the lower threshold of the thermal comfort band as compared with the original threshold. A possible explanation for that is a longer exposure to cold conditions as buildings are seldom provided with heating systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyses the temporal and spatial variability of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in Poland in summer. Summer is the season with the highest intensity of tourism traffic that is why it is important to determine biometeorological conditions, especially in popular tourist destinations such as coastal, mountain and urban areas, in the times of climate changes. The analysis was based on data from 18 stations of IMGW-PIB (Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute), distributed evenly in the territory of the country, and representing all eight bioclimatic regions. The data include air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and cloudiness at 12 UTC from summer months: June, July and August from the years 2001–2018. Thermoneutral zone was the most frequently occurring UTCI class in Poland. It was recorded during 56–75% of summer days (with the exception of mountain stations, where it occurred on 30–35% of days). Moderate heat stress is the second most frequently occurring category with a frequency from 18 to 29% with the exception of mountain and coastal areas. Extreme and very strong cold stress occurred particularly in high mountain stations, and was sporadically observed at the coast of the Baltic Sea; however, the occurrence of such conditions decreases, which if favourable for beach tourism. No cases of extreme heat stress were recorded in any of the stations. The most unfavourable bioclimatic conditions were characteristic of the Upland Region (IV), represented by Kraków and Sandomierz, where very strong heat stress occurred with a 10% frequency. This is a limitation for urban tourism in those regions. The highest UTCI values were recorded in Kraków on 17 July 2007 and 29 July 2005. The highest number of cases with strong and very strong heat stress was recorded in 2015 as a consequence of the heat wave observed in Poland in the first half of August. In the majority of the analysed stations, in the second half of the analysed period (2010–2018), an increase in the number of days with strong and very strong heat stress was observed in comparison with the first half of period (2001–2009). The highest frequency of such days was observed in July. Based on the data, there are 4 potential periods of occurrence of such days, with two most intense being 26. July–13 August and 14–22 July. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant changes in climate variables in the last decades resulted in changes of perceived climate conditions. However, there are only few studies discussing long-lasting changes in bioclimatic conditions. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to present the temporal and spatial distribution of hazardous heat and cold stress conditions in different regions of Poland. Its focus is on long-lasting changes in such conditions in the period 1951–2018. To assess changes in hazardous thermal stress conditions, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was used. UTCI values at 12 UTC hour (respectively 1 pm winter time, 2 pm summer time) were calculated daily based on air temperature, relative humidity, total cloud cover and wind speed at 24 stations representing the whole area of Poland. We found that the greatest changes were observed in minimum (1.33 °C/10 years) and average (0.52 °C/10 years) UTCI values as well as in cold stress frequency (− 4.00 days per 10 years). The changes vary seasonally and regionally. The greatest increase in UTCImin and decrease in cold stress days were noted from November to March and had the highest values in north-east and east Poland, and also in the foothills of the Carpathian Mountains. The trends in maximum UTCI are much smaller and not always positive. The spatially averaged trend in UTCImax for Poland as a whole was 0.35 °C/10 years and the increase in heat stress days was 0.80 days/10 years. The highest increases in UTCImax and heat stress days were noted in eastern and south-eastern Poland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spermatogenesis is a temperature-dependent process, and high summer temperatures have been linked to lower sperm concentration and count. However, reports describing the association between other meteorological variables and semen quality are scarce. This study evaluated the association between semen quality and temperature, humidity, pressure, apparent temperature (AT), temperature-humidity index (THI), simplified wet-bulb global temperature (sWBGT), and sunshine duration. Semen samples were obtained at the Laboratorio de Andrología y Reproducción (LAR, Argentina), from men undergoing routine andrology examination (n=11657) and computer-assisted sperm analysis (n=4705) following WHO 2010 criteria. Meteorological variables readings were obtained from the Sistema Meteorológico Nacional. Sperm quality parameters were negatively affected in summer when compared to winter. Additionally, there was a significant decrease in sperm kinematics between winter and spring. Branch and bound variable selection followed by multiple regression analysis revealed a significant association between semen quality and meteorological variables. Specifically, changes in sunshine duration and humidity reinforced the prognosis of semen quality. Highest/lowest sunshine duration and humidity quantiles resulted in decreased sperm concentration, count, motility, vitality and membrane competence, nuclear maturity, and sperm kinematics associated to highest sunshine duration and lowest humidity. Findings from this report highlight the relevance of environmental studies for predicting alterations in male reproductive health associated to variations in meteorological variables, especially considering the current climate changes around the planet due to global warming and its consequences for human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of climate conditions in the agricultural environment is important in evapotranspiration, water availability for plants and roots, and other processes. This research focuses on two aspects: (1) the effects of climate change on the occurrence of extreme events that may affect agricultural processes in a region in Illinois (USA), and (2) the effects of climate change on the soil water dynamics in a corn crop. Different climate scenarios developed by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, using a climate model with medium resolution—IPSL(CM5MR), provided input to simulate soil water dynamics in two fields with different drainage system layouts. The Hydrus model simulated surface flux and runoff. Results indicate that the variation of precipitation and temperature in the future may increase extreme events, representing a risk for agriculture. Hydrus simulations indicate different results accordingly to the drainage layout, suggesting that it may be necessary to make adjustments in drainage systems in the future. In general, surface flux and runoff will increase over time, and these changes are more related to extreme events than average values. Extreme event indices show vulnerability in agriculture and will be reflected in changes in the soil water dynamics, and may increase the climatic risk of corn production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present work analyses the main weather patterns over the period 1981–2010 in the Central Apennines (Italy), drawing upon data from 23 monitoring stations spanning a wide elevation range (260–1750 m asl). Cluster analysis was used to identify homogeneous units and to verify the effectiveness of the bioclimatic classification by crossing the results derived from the application of hierarchical and non-hierarchical classification techniques. The results reveal a diversified picture of five clusters that depends on several factors as elevation, the geographic position within or outside the mountainous range, and the regional morphological traits. Although Mediterranean and Temperate climatic features coexist, the Mediterranean pattern in the southern areas and internal valleys better expresses the overall mixed characteristics of Central Italy. The use of a mixed methodology of hierarchic and partitioning methods of cluster analysis improves the bioclimatic classification, especially to quantify the level of humidity and the mediterraneity degree. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efforts have been made to quantify the spatio-temporal malaria transmission intensity over India using the dynamical malaria model, namely, Vector-borne Disease Community Model of International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste (VECTRI). The likely effect of climate change in the variability of malaria transmission intensity over different parts of India is also investigated. The Historical data and future projection scenarios of the rainfall and temperature derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model output are used for this purpose. The Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) and Vector are taken as quantifiers of malaria transmission intensity. It is shown that the maximum number of malaria cases over India occur during the Sept–Oct months, whereas the minimum during the Feb–Apr months. The malaria transmission intensity as well as length of transmission season over India is likely to increase in the future climate as a result of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Occupational heat stress directly hampers physical work capacity (PWC), with large economic consequences for industries and regions vulnerable to global warming. Accurately quantifying PWC is essential for forecasting impacts of different climate change scenarios, but the current state of knowledge is limited, leading to potential underestimations in mild heat, and overestimations in extreme heat. We therefore developed advanced empirical equations for PWC based on 338 work sessions in climatic chambers (low air movement, no solar radiation) spanning mild to extreme heat stress. Equations for PWC are available based on air temperature and humidity, for a suite of heat stress assessment metrics, and mean skin temperature. Our models are highly sensitive to mild heat and to our knowledge are the first to include empirical data across the full range of warm and hot environments possible with future climate change across the world. Using wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) as an example, we noted 10% reductions in PWC at mild heat stress (WBGT = 18°C) and reductions of 78% in the most extreme conditions (WBGT = 40°C). Of the different heat stress indices available, the heat index was the best predictor of group level PWC (R2 = 0.96) but can only be applied in shaded conditions. The skin temperature, but not internal/core temperature, was a strong predictor of PWC (R2 = 0.88), thermal sensation (R2 = 0.84), and thermal comfort (R2 = 0.73). The models presented apply to occupational workloads and can be used in climate projection models to predict economic and social consequences of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regeneration of plants through seed is governed by the ability and rate to germinate, which largely depends on the climatic variables prevailing during pre-harvest (mother plant growth) and post-harvest (processing and storage) stages. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] is increasing rapidly and is expected to surpass 550 ppm within this century. Elevated CO2 (e[CO2]) is reported to influence the mother plant at morphological, phenological, physiological and biochemical levels across the species. Such changes are expected to alter the quality components of the progeny seeds, which has received very little research attention. This review discusses about the possible implications of e[CO2] on quality attributes of seed affecting its planting value with much emphasis on seed weight, germination, vigour and its biochemical constituents. Research indicates that the effect of e[CO2] on seed weight is variable and influenced by the availability of nutrients particularly nitrogen. Likewise, seed germination shows a divergent effect, whereas seed vigour that indicates the strength of a seed usually is compromised under e[CO2]. It generally alters the balance between tissue carbon and nitrogen content, thus impairs the normal C:N ratio in progeny seed, which eventually impacts the next generation crop. For mitigation, while global breeding efforts focused on elite but narrow gene pool across the crop species shredded some of the ecologically important seed traits, such as thick and dark seed coat in legumes, such traits must be considered in designing breeding programs as they provide resilience to various stresses. We have suggested additional potential mitigation strategies and areas for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates the use of climatological data and published information to develop a thaw-freeze/freeze-kill indicator for fruit trees during flowering. In fruit-producing regions, when budding and flowering occur before the last spring freeze, a freeze-kill event can cause substantial losses. As spring onset is occurring earlier with climate change, thaw-freeze events have the potential to become more of a hazard both in terms of current production and in terms of potential adaptation strategies. To model the spring thaw-freeze and its magnitude or intensity, we proposed an indicator based on the accumulation of daily minimum temperature between successive freezing dates and its maximum value over the spring. This indicator was tested on apple and peach production in southern Ontario, Canada, using data from eight climate stations in southern Ontario. The indicator showed promise in its utility in that its magnitude was greater when freezing occurred after blooming and it was demonstrated to be correlated to the estimated blooming dates of apple and peach fruits grown in southern Ontario. The annual series was shown to fit the generalized extreme value distribution thereby allowing the extreme risk to be modelled and the return period to be calculated. It was also shown that the reported thaw-freeze events that caused significant apple and peach losses had a return period on the order of 10 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the late 1970s, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has shown a significant weakening trend, and sustained drought has occurred across North China. Placing recent climate changes in the paleoclimatic context can better understand the EASM variations. Four δ18O sequences based on tree-ring cellulose of Chinese pine were developed from Mt. Beiwudang, North China, covering a period from 1700 to 2013. Based on a climatic response analysis, a transfer function was designed to reconstruct the relative humidity from July to August (RHJA hereafter). The RHJA spans from 1765 to 2013 and explains 49% (R2adj= 48%) of the instrumental variance during the calibration period (1961–2013, r = − 0.70, p < 0.0001). The RHJA is mainly influenced by precipitation in the summer rainy season and reflect EASM variations. Spatial representation analysis indicates that RHJA represents the dry/wet variations across North China. At the interannual scale, RHJA records many extreme dry/wet events, among which the events in 1876–1878, 1900, and the 1920s are extensive droughts. Those events correspond well to ENSO events, plus further correlation and periodicity analysis indicate that RHJA contains ENSO signals. At the interdecadal scale, RHJA shows a decreasing trend and unprecedented low values from 1981 to 2013, suggesting that the weakening of EASM since the late 1970s is unprecedented in the past 249 years. Similarly, the significantly correlating region in the spatial correlation analysis, covering the Meiyu/Baiu/Changma rainfall belt and India, have also undergone a climatic shift since the late 1970s according to previous papers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although ski tourism in China is experiencing a boom, and the number of operating ski areas has significantly increased, the influence of climate change on the future development of China's ski industry has so far largely been overlooked. This paper addresses this important gap by applying the ski season simulation model SkiSim 2.0 at 116 ski areas. Four main indicators of climate change impact were examined: ski season length, operational ski days in economically important season segments, technically produced snow and snowmaking requirements. For all ski resorts in China and all climate change scenarios, average ski seasons are projected to shorten (− 4 to − 61% RCP 4.5; − 6 to − 79% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s) while snowmaking needs increase (27 to 51% RCP 4.5; 46 to 80% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s). The results indicate that high regional differences in climate change vulnerability exist. The implications for altered competitiveness and development potential of the ski industry in China are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indicators are widely used in climate variability and climate change assessments to simplify the tracking of complex processes and phenomena in the state of the environment. Apart from the climatic criteria, the snow indicators in ski tourism have been increasingly extended with elements that relate to the technical, operational, and commercial aspects of ski tourism. These non-natural influencing factors have gained in importance in comparison with the natural environmental conditions but are more difficult to comprehend in time and space, resulting in limited explanatory power of the related indicators when applied for larger/longer scale assessments. We review the existing indicator approaches to derive quantitative measures for the snow conditions in ski areas, to formulate the criteria that the indicators should fulfill, and to provide a list of indicators with their technical specifications which can be used in snow condition assessments for ski tourism. For the use of these indicators, a three-step procedure consisting of definition, application, and interpretation is suggested. We also provide recommendations for the design of indicator-based assessments of climate change effects on ski tourism. Thereby, we highlight the importance of extensive stakeholder involvement to allow for real-world relevance of the achieved results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing recognition that global climatic change is a pressing reality and that its impacts on humans and ecological systems are inevitable makes adaptation a core topic in climate change research and policymaking. The glacier tourism sector that is highly sensitive towards changing climatic conditions is among the most relevant in this respect. This study aims to examine empirically how adaptation to climate change impacts is practiced by small- and middle-scale glacier tour operators. Data was collected by means of a set of semi-structured interviews with the managers or owners of nine small- or middle-scale tour companies operating in the Vatnajökull National Park in Southeast Iceland and observations of glacier sites where the respondents' companies are operating. The results indicate that all entrepreneurs consider climate change to be a real phenomenon that affects their present daily operations, but they perceive these implications not as significant threats to their business. The interaction of operator's attributes of agency such as firsthand experiences, risk perceptions, and abilities to self-organize, with structural elements of the glacier destination system such as economic rationales and hazard reduction institutions, has shaped and consolidated operators' adaptation processes in the form of a wait-and-see strategy combined with ad hoc reactive adaptation measures and postponed or prevented proactive long-term adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought-adapted geophytes are responding to the effects of climate change in arid and semi-arid environments. In this study, herbarium and historical rainfall data were used to examine the impact of rainfall changes on flowering trends of Pancratium tenuifolium Hochst. ex A.Rich and Scadoxus multiflorus (Martyn) Raf. subsp. multiflorus. Flowering was delayed by approximately 7 days per decade for P. tenuifolium during the period 1930 to 2018 and by approximately 14 days per decade for S. multiflorus subsp. multiflorus during the period 1924 to 2008. Scadoxus multiflorus subsp. multiflorus delayed the day of flowering by approximately 0.3 days per millimetre increase of rainfall, with Pancratium tenuifolium showing a non-significant response to summer rainfall during the same period. Overall, a linear mixed-effects model revealed that the day of flowering was delayed by approximately 8 days per degree rise in latitude and advanced by approximately 9 days per degree rise in longitude. Additionally, summer rainfall had significant effects on the day of flowering with a 1-mm increase in summer rainfall delaying the day of flowering by approximately 0.16 days. These changes in flowering times may ultimately alter the distribution of geophytes in Namibia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the rate of development (DR) of bud-burst and temperature may be nonlinear, which could lead to varying temperature sensitivity (TS) of budburst date under different climate conditions. In order to determine the functional form between DR/TS and temperature, we gathered twigs with flower buds of five woody plants (Malus halliana, Forsythia suspense, Crataegus pinnatifida, Prunus cerasifera F. atropurpurea, and Berberis thunbergii var. atropurpurea Chenault) in early spring of 2017 at Beijing, and placed them in six growth chambers at same daylength but different temperature conditions (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 °C). The proportion of bud- burst was recorded every 2 or 3 days for each species at each temperature condition. The results showed that the proportion of bud-burst followed the logistic function over time at a given temperature. Subsequently, we developed a mathematical model to simulate the proportion of bud-burst at any temperature and date. The DR and TS were parameterized using a differential method. The simulation results showed that the DR increased monotonically with the rise in temperature, but only two species could reach the maximum value at 30 °C. The TS decreased with the increase in temperature, but this effect was weak when the temperature was high enough. These findings suggested that the predicted warming in the future may result in a slowdown in the advance of spring phenology of woody plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because climate change alters patterns of vegetative growth, long-term phenological measurements and observations can provide important data for analyzing its impact. Phenological assessments are usually made as records of calendar dates when specific phase changes occur. Such assessments have benefits and are used in Citizen Science monitoring. However, these kinds of data often have low statistical precision when describing gradual changes. Frequent monitoring of the phenological traits of forest trees and berries as they undergo gradual change is needed to acquire good temporal resolution of transitions relative to other factors, such as susceptibility to frosts, insects, and fungi, and the use of berries as a food resource. Intensive weekly monitoring of the growth of apical and branch buds and the elongation of shoots and leaves on four tree species, and the abundance of flowers and berries of bilberry and lingonberry, has been performed in Sweden since 2006. Here, we present quantitative methods for interpolating such data, which detail the gradual changes between assessments in order to describe average rates of development and amount of interannual variation. Our analysis has shown the active growth period of trees to differ with latitude. We also observed a change in the timing of the maximum numbers of ripening berries and their successive decline. Data from tree phenology assessments can be used to recommend best forestry practice and to model tree growth, while berry data can be used to estimate when food resources for animals are most available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the first issue of the International Journal of Biometeorology in 1957, a total of 135 papers have reported on research in or of African countries. The majority of these have been on topics of animal biometeorology (36%), and the greatest proportion (24%) are situated in Nigeria. There has been a considerable increase in papers on African biometeorology since 2011, with those from this past decade accounting for 58% of all African papers in the journal. This occurs concurrent to an increase in the total number of papers published in the journal, driven by a move to the Editorial Manager system. While 66% of the papers on African biometeorology in the journal are authored by at least one person with an affiliation in the African continent, only 15 African countries are represented in the total authorship. As much of the African continent is projected to experience climatic changes exceeding the global mean, as much of the region is involved in animal and plant farming, and as seasonally-fluctuating and climatically affected diseases are common place, this low representation of work in Africa is surprising. This points to the need for greater awareness among African researchers of the discipline of biometeorology, greater involvement of African biometeorologists in International Society of Biometeorology and Commission meetings, and the inclusion of a greater number of African academics in the review process. This would be beneficial to the Society in increasing diversity and encouraging a more cosmopolitan engagement, and to the recognition of scientific development in African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]