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Since the first issue of the International Journal of Biometeorology in 1957, a total of 135 papers have reported on research in or of African countries. The majority of these have been on topics of animal biometeorology (36%), and the greatest proportion (24%) are situated in Nigeria. There has been a considerable increase in papers on African biometeorology since 2011, with those from this past decade accounting for 58% of all African papers in the journal. This occurs concurrent to an increase in the total number of papers published in the journal, driven by a move to the Editorial Manager system. While 66% of the papers on African biometeorology in the journal are authored by at least one person with an affiliation in the African continent, only 15 African countries are represented in the total authorship. As much of the African continent is projected to experience climatic changes exceeding the global mean, as much of the region is involved in animal and plant farming, and as seasonally-fluctuating and climatically affected diseases are common place, this low representation of work in Africa is surprising. This points to the need for greater awareness among African researchers of the discipline of biometeorology, greater involvement of African biometeorologists in International Society of Biometeorology and Commission meetings, and the inclusion of a greater number of African academics in the review process. This would be beneficial to the Society in increasing diversity and encouraging a more cosmopolitan engagement, and to the recognition of scientific development in African countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB) has been the flagship journal in the field for the past 60+ years. However, given its interdisciplinary nature, biometeorology research has appeared in numerous publication outlets other than the IJB. This study compiles the most popular of these journals, so that early-career biometeorologists might be able to be exposed to more literature that the field has to offer. In focusing on where members of the International Society of Biometeorology's (ISB) Climate and Human Health Commission (CHH) members publish, journals with a general focus on fields such as climate, the environment, and health stand out. Many of these journals have impact factors much higher than the IJB, potentially making them more attractive for dissemination of results to a larger audience. With this paper, the authors hope that the interest in biometeorology is broadened through an expansion of known available literature, specifically with early-career researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present work analyses the main weather patterns over the period 1981–2010 in the Central Apennines (Italy), drawing upon data from 23 monitoring stations spanning a wide elevation range (260–1750 m asl). Cluster analysis was used to identify homogeneous units and to verify the effectiveness of the bioclimatic classification by crossing the results derived from the application of hierarchical and non-hierarchical classification techniques. The results reveal a diversified picture of five clusters that depends on several factors as elevation, the geographic position within or outside the mountainous range, and the regional morphological traits. Although Mediterranean and Temperate climatic features coexist, the Mediterranean pattern in the southern areas and internal valleys better expresses the overall mixed characteristics of Central Italy. The use of a mixed methodology of hierarchic and partitioning methods of cluster analysis improves the bioclimatic classification, especially to quantify the level of humidity and the mediterraneity degree. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The territory of West Kazakhstan is an intensively developing region. The main oil and gas fields are concentrated there. In addition, this region is well-known as a region of nomad cattle breeding. Both of industry and agriculture demand a lot of employees, working in the open air in wintertime. Severe winter conditions, primary very low temperatures, and strong winds characterize the region. In this work, we calculated and analyzed the spatial and temporal distributions of effective temperatures in the region and their dynamics due to the global warming in the last decades. To calculate the equivalent temperature (WCET) was used the method of OFCM 2003. Nowadays, it is known as a common method for similar studies. It was shown that in the observed region, WCET is significantly lower than the ambient temperature. Repeatability of WCET, corresponding to «increasing risk», «high risk» is high in the main part of the region. Global warming in the region results in returning extremely high temperatures of the air, decreasing repeatability of the average gradation of WCET approximately on 4%, but there is no any visible changing repeatability of extreme WCET. Obtained results can be used for planning any construction work in the open air and agriculture branches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere have been taking place during the latter part of the twentieth century and the early part of the twenty-first century. In the Belgorod region of Southwest Russia, this has been manifested in the more frequent occurrence of stationary anticyclones, including those referred to as blocking anticyclones, especially during the summer season. Also, there has been a general increase in regional temperatures during the growing season over the period mentioned above, and combined with the more frequent occurrence of anticyclones has led to less humid conditions. In the Missouri region of the Central USA, variability in the circulation on differing time scales within the Eastern Pacific plays a strong role in the conditions that impact the growing season. As a result of changes in climate and climate variability, the benefit to agriculture during this period produces mixed results for both regions. This work will evaluate the growing season conditions using indexes that combine growing season temperature and precipitation such as the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) and the bioclimatic potential (BCP). Also, the interannual variability of these indexes in both regions was examined. In the Belgorod region, the increase in temperature combined with little change in precipitation produced mixed results in interpreting these indexes. This was accompanied by more variable conditions as revealed by these indexes in the early twenty-first century. In the Missouri region, there was little trend in either index over the time period and the tendency was toward less climatic variability in the HTC and BCP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerobiology and biometeorology are related fields. Here we provide a broad review of aerobiology articles published in the International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB) over the past 60 years. We consider how the quantity of such work has varied over this period as well as which regions and countries have been the focus of such work, and where there is a relative paucity. We then focus on a number of highlights and themes in this research, including aerobiology and climate change and aerobiological modelling and forecasting. While much of the article focusses on airborne pollen research, we also discuss the extent to which other airborne organic particles such as fungal spores and bacteria have been the focus of research published in IJB. Also considered are knowledge gaps and research needs and priorities with respect to the field of aerobiology. While the IJB has been one of the main platforms for presenting aerobiological research over recent decades, the article highlights the need for the field of aerobiology to embrace new sampling technologies such as spectral analysis and next-generation sequencing to identify and quantify airborne biological particles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Executive Board of the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) founded the Commission on Climate, Tourism and Recreation (CCTR) at the 15th International Congress of Biometeorology in Sydney, Australia in 1999. The aims of the CCTR are to bring together researchers from around the world to critically review the current state of knowledge in tourism and recreation climatology and explore possibilities for future research. Almost two decades on, research in tourism climatology has developed and expanded due in large part to the initiatives and activities of the CCTR and several collaborative research projects run under the auspices of the CCTR. This work is reviewed here. Recent CCTR meeting highlighted the fact that, although climate is an essential part of the resource base for tourism, which is one of the world's biggest and fastest growing industries, relatively little is known about the effects of climate on tourist choices and broad demand patterns or the influence climate has on the commercial prospects and sustainability of tourism operators and destinations. The work here reviews what has been done, its conceptual underpinnings and current research frontiers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In human biometeorology, the integration of several microclimatic variables as a combined index facilitates the understanding of how users perceive thermal environments. Indices, such as the physiological equivalent temperature (PET) index, translate the combined effects of meteorological variables on humans in terms of thermal stress or comfort and serve as important aids to climate-responsive urban and regional planning as well as heat stress and thermal comfort analyses. However, there is a need for adjusting proposed comfort/stress ranges of a given index when using it in different climatic contexts. The purpose of this study is to present a preliminary calibration procedure for the PET index for three different climatic regions: Curitiba, Brazil, a subtropical location; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, a tropical city; and Glasgow, UK, a high-latitude location. Field studies have been carried out by the authors according to a similar protocol and using similar equipment, yielding actual thermal sensation votes and microclimate data, post-processed as PET data. The calibration procedure uses exclusively thermal sensation data as reported by pedestrians during outdoor comfort campaigns and concurrent microclimatic data recorded during the interviews. PET comfort/stress classes differ among the three locations and, in general, are less restrictive as in the original ranges proposed by the index developers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing concern about declines in pollinator species, and more recently reservations have been expressed about mismatch in plant-pollinator synchrony as a consequence of phenological change caused by rising temperatures. Long-term changes in honeybee Apis mellifera phenology may have major consequences for agriculture, especially the pollinator market, as well as for honey production. To date, these aspects have received only modest attention. In the current study, we examine honeybee and beekeeping activity in southern Poland for the period 1965-2010, supplemented by hive yields from a beekeeper in southern UK in the same period. We show that despite negative reports on honeybee condition, and documented climate change, the studied apiary managed to show a marked increase in honey production over the 46 year study period, as did that from the UK. The proportion of the annual yield originating from the first harvest decreased during the study period and was associated with rising temperatures in summer. Honeybee spring phenology showed strong negative relationships with temperature but no overall change through time because temperatures of key early spring months had not increased significantly. In contrast, increasing yields and an increased number of harvests (and hence a later final harvest and longer season) were detected and were related to rising temperatures in late spring and in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural regions. It has been concluded that regional climate change simulations are an adequate methodology, and indeed, the MM5 regional model is an appropriate tool to be applied in viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classification and mapping of land capability represents an established format for summarising spatial information on land quality and land-use potential. By convention, this information incorporates bioclimatic constraints through the use of a long-term average. However, climate change means that land capability classification should also have a dynamic temporal component. Using an analysis based upon Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland, it is shown that this dynamism not only involves the long-term average but also shorter term spatiotemporal patterns, particularly through changes in interannual variability. Interannual and interdecadal variations occur both in the likelihood of land being in prime condition (top three capability class divisions) and in class volatility from year to year. These changing patterns are most apparent in relation to the west-east climatic gradient which is mainly a function of precipitation regime and soil moisture. Analysis is also extended into the future using climate results for the 2050s from a weather generator which show a complex interaction between climate interannual variability and different soil types for land quality. In some locations, variability of land capability is more likely to decrease because the variable climatic constraints are relaxed and the dominant constraint becomes intrinsic soil properties. Elsewhere, climatic constraints will continue to be influential. Changing climate variability has important implications for land-use planning and agricultural management because it modifies local risk profiles in combination with the current trend towards agricultural intensification and specialisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, a growing body of evidence has emerged indicating that the relationship between flowering phenology and climate may differ throughout various portions of the growing season. These differences have resulted in long-term changes in flowering synchrony that may alter the quantity and diversity of pollinator attention to many species, as well as altering food availability to pollenivorous and nectarivorous animal species. However, long-term multi-season records of past flowering timing have primarily focused on temperate environments. In contrast, changes in flowering phenology within humid subtropical environments such as the southeastern USA remain poorly documented. This research uses herbarium-based methods to examine changes in flowering time across 19,328 samples of spring-, summer-, and autumn-flowering plants in the southeastern USA from the years 1951 to 2009. In this study, species that flower near the onset of the growing season were found to advance under increasing mean March temperatures (−3.391 days/°C, p = 0.022). No long-term advances in early spring flowering or spring temperature were detected during this period, corroborating previous phenological assessments for the southeastern USA. However, late spring through mid-summer flowering exhibited delays in response to higher February temperatures (over 0.1.85 days/°C, p ≤ 0.041 in all cases). Thus, it appears that flowering synchrony may undergo significant restructuring in response to warming spring temperatures, even in humid subtropical environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evaluation of general suitability for viticulture in wine regions requires a knowledge of the spatial variation in temperature, which is also used to assess different grapevine cultivars and to delimit appropriate zones for winegrape production. However, usually temperature data and methods applied to properly delineate homogeneous areas are not adequate to generate accurate maps. With the aim of providing an analysis using four temperature-based indices, quantifying their spatial variability, and representing the spatial pattern of each index throughout Extremadura, one of the most important Spanish wine regions, temperature data from 117 meteorological stations, considering the 1980-2011 period, were utilized. The statistical properties of each index were assessed and, later, they were mapped by means of an integrated geographic information system (GIS) and a multivariate geostatistics (regression-kriging) approach. Results show that heat-sum temperature indices were highly related to the more simple growing season temperature; however, temperature regime differences varied upon which index was employed. The spatial variability of climate within Extremaduran natural regions (NR) is significant; although the warmer conditions predominate, some NR have part of their territory by up to eight climate classes. This information enables a better understanding of the viticulture suitability within each NR and delineating homogeneous zones. The use of consistent bioclimatic indices and an advanced geostatistical algorithm have made it possible to delimit and compare within-region climates and also enabled comparisons of Extremaduran NR with others worlwide, which should be taken into account to select varieties and assess the possibilities of producing new wines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different spatial interpolation techniques have been applied to construct objective bioclimatic maps of La Palma, Canary Islands. Interpolation of climatic data on this topographically complex island with strong elevation and climatic gradients represents a challenge. Furthermore, meteorological stations are not evenly distributed over the island, with few stations at high elevations. We carried out spatial interpolations of the compensated thermicity index (Itc) and the annual ombrothermic Index (Io), in order to obtain appropriate bioclimatic maps by using automatic interpolation procedures, and to establish their relation to potential vegetation units for constructing a climatophilous potential natural vegetation map (CPNV). For this purpose, we used five interpolation techniques implemented in a GIS: inverse distance weighting (IDW), ordinary kriging (OK), ordinary cokriging (OCK), multiple linear regression (MLR) and MLR followed by ordinary kriging of the regression residuals. Two topographic variables (elevation and aspect), derived from a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM), were included in OCK and MLR. The accuracy of the interpolation techniques was examined by the results of the error statistics of test data derived from comparison of the predicted and measured values. Best results for both bioclimatic indices were obtained with the MLR method with interpolation of the residuals showing the highest R of the regression between observed and predicted values and lowest values of root mean square errors. MLR with correction of interpolated residuals is an attractive interpolation method for bioclimatic mapping on this oceanic island since it permits one to fully account for easily available geographic information but also takes into account local variation of climatic data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Airborne pollen records are a suitable indicator for the study of climate change. The present work focuses on the role of annual pollen indices for the detection of bioclimatic trends through the analysis of the aerobiological spectra of 11 taxa of great biogeographical relevance in Catalonia over an 18-year period (1994-2011), by means of different parametric and non-parametric statistical methods. Among others, two non-parametric rank-based statistical tests were performed for detecting monotonic trends in time series data of the selected airborne pollen types and we have observed that they have similar power in detecting trends. Except for those cases in which the pollen data can be well-modeled by a normal distribution, it is better to apply non-parametric statistical methods to aerobiological studies. Our results provide a reliable representation of the pollen trends in the region and suggest that greater pollen quantities are being liberated to the atmosphere in the last years, specially by Mediterranean taxa such as Pinus, Total Quercus and Evergreen Quercus, although the trends may differ geographically. Longer aerobiological monitoring periods are required to corroborate these results and survey the increasing levels of certain pollen types that could exert an impact in terms of public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology ( IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climatic sensitivity of four important agriculture crops (wheat, barley, oats, potatoes) in a northern temperate bioclimatic region is investigated using national-level yield data for 1963-2005. The climate variables include monthly and annual meteorological data, derived bioclimatic metrics, and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Statistical analysis shows that significant relationships between yield and climate vary depending on the crop type and month but highlight the influence of precipitation (negative correlation) and sunshine duration (positive correlation) rather than temperature. Soil moisture deficit is shown to be a particular useful indicator of yield with drier summers providing the best yields for Scotland as a whole. It is also tentatively inferred that the sensitivity of these crops, particularly wheat and barley, to soil moisture deficits has increased in recent years. This suggests that improved crop yields are optimised for dry sunny years despite the continued prevalence of considerable inter-annual variability in seasonal weather. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of heightened interest in the response of pollen phenology to temperature, we investigated recent changes to the onset of Betula (birch) pollen seasons in central and southern England, including a test of predicted advancement of the Betula pollen season for London. We calculated onset of birch pollen seasons using daily airborne pollen data obtained at London, Plymouth and Worcester, determined trends in the start of the pollen season and compared timing of the birch pollen season with observed temperature patterns for the period 1995-2010. We found no overall change in the onset of birch pollen in the study period although there was evidence that the response to temperature was nonlinear and that a lower asymptotic start of the pollen season may exist. The start of the birch pollen season was strongly correlated with March mean temperature. These results reinforce previous findings showing that the timing of the birch pollen season in the UK is particularly sensitive to spring temperatures. The climate relationship shown here persists over both longer decadal-scale trends and shorter, seasonal trends as well as during periods of 'sign-switching' when cooler spring temperatures result in later start dates. These attributes, combined with the wide geographical coverage of airborne pollen monitoring sites, some with records extending back several decades, provide a powerful tool for the detection of climate change impacts, although local site factors and the requirement for winter chilling may be confounding factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporal and temperature driven analyses were conducted for eight spring phenology datasets from three Australian pome fruit growing regions ranging from 24 to 43 years in length. This, the first such analysis for Australia, indicated significant temporal change in phenophase timing for only one of the datasets. To determine relationships to temperature, a sequential chill and growth method as well as mean springtime temperatures were used to estimate phenophase timing. Expected advancement of phenophase ranged from 4.1 to 7.7 days per degree Celsius increase in temperature. The sequential chill and growth approach proved superior, with coefficients of determination between 0.49 and 0.85, indicating the inclusion of chill conditions are important for spring phenology modelling. Compared to similar phenological research in the Northern Hemisphere, the changes in response variables were often shallower in Australia, although significance of observed hemispheric differences were not found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study was undertaken to describe the temperature humidity index (THI) dynamics over the Mediterranean basin for the period 1971-2050. The THI combines temperature and humidity into a single value, and has been widely used to predict the effects of environmental warmth in farm animals. The analysis was based on daily outputs of the temperature and relative humidity from the Max Planck Institute data using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Emission Scenario A1B. Data revealed a gradual increase of both annual and seasonal THI during the period under investigation and a strong heterogeneity of the Mediterranean area. In particular, the analysis indicated that Spain, southern France and Italy should be expected to undergo the highest THI increase, which in the last decade under study (2041-2050) will range between 3 and 4 units. However, only during summer months the area presents characteristics indicating risk of thermal (heat) stress for farm animals. In this regard, scenario maps relative to the summer season suggested an enlargement of the areas in the basin where summer THI values will likely cause thermal discomfort in farm animals. In conclusion, the study indicated that the Mediterranean basin is likely to undergo THI changes, which may aggravate the consequences of hot weather on animal welfare, performances, health and survival and may help farmers, nutritionists, veterinarians, and policy-makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to limit consequences of climate change for the livestock sector in the Mediterranean countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological shifts linked to global warming reflect the ability of organisms to track changing climatic conditions. However, different organisms track global warming differently and there is an increasing interest in the link between phenological traits and plant abundance and distribution. Long-term data sets are often used to estimate phenological traits to climate change, but so far little has been done to evaluate the quality of these estimates. Here, we use a 73-year long data series of first flowering dates for 25 species from north-temperate Sweden to evaluate (i) correlations between first flowering dates and year for different time periods and (ii) linear regression models between first flowering date and mean monthly temperatures in preceding months. Furthermore, we evaluate the potential of this kind of data to estimate the phenological temperature sensitivities (i.e. number of days phenological change per degree temperature change, β) in such models. The sign of the correlations between first flowering dates and year were highly inconsistent among different time periods, highlighting that estimates of phenological change are sensitive to the specific time period used. The first flowering dates of all species were correlated with temperature, but with large differences in both the strength of the response and the period(s) of the year that were most strongly associated with phenological variation. Finally, our analyses indicated that legacy data sets need to be relatively long-term to be useful for estimating phenological temperature sensitivities (β) for inter-specific comparisons. In 10-year long observation series only one out of 24 species reached ≥80 % probability of estimating temperature sensitivity (β) within a ±1 range, and 17 out of 24 species reached ≥80 % probability when observation series were 20 years or shorter. The standard error for β ranged from 0.6 to 2.0 for 10-year long observation series, and 19 out of 24 species reached SE < 1 after 15 years. In general, late flowering species will require longer time series than early flowering species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to select a phenological model that is able to calculate the beginning of egg laying of Great Tit ( Parus major) for both current and future climate conditions. Four models (M1-M4) were optimised on long-term phenological observations from the Ecological Research Centre Schlüchtern (Hessen/Germany). Model M1 was a common thermal time model that accumulates growing degree days (GDD) on an optimised starting date t. Since egg laying of Great Tit is influenced not only by air temperature but also by photoperiod, model M1 was extended by a daylength term to give M2. The other two models, M3 and M4, correspond to M1 and M2, but t was intentionally set to 1 January, in order to consider already rising temperatures at the beginning of the year. A comparison of the four models led to following results: model M1 had a relatively high root mean square error at verification (RMSE) of more than 4 days and can be used only to calculate the start of egg laying for current climate conditions because of the relatively late starting date for GDD calculation. The model failed completely if the starting date was set to 1 January (M3). Consideration of a daylength term in models M2 and M4 improved the performance of both models strongly (RMSE of only 3 days or less), increased the credibility of parameter estimation, and was a precondition to calculate reliable projections in the timing of egg laying in birds for the future. These results confirm that the start of egg laying of Great Tit is influenced not only by air temperature, but also by photoperiod. Although models M2 and M4 both provide comparably good results for current climate conditions, we recommend model M4-with a starting date of temperature accumulation on 1 January-for calculating possible future shifts in the commencement of egg laying. Our regional projections in the start of egg laying, based on five regional climate models (RCMs: REMO-UBA, ECHAM5-CLM, HadCM3-CLM, WETTREG-0, WETTREG-1, GHG emission scenario A1B), indicate that in the near future (2011-2040) no significant change will take place. However, in the mid- (2041-2070) and long-term (2071-2100) range the beginning of egg laying could be advanced significantly by up to 11 days on average of all five RCMs. This result corresponds to the already observed shift in the timing of egg laying by about 1 week, due mainly to an abrupt increase in air temperature at the end of the 1980s by 1.2 K between April and May. The use of five regional climate scenarios additionally allowed to estimate uncertainties among the RCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents an analysis of temperature and precipitation trends and their impact on grape harvests in the Penedès region (NE Spain). It includes analyses of maximum, minimum and mean daily temperatures (for both the growing and ripening seasons) and daily rainfall (for the hydrological year, the growing season and each phenological stage) for three observatories in the immediate area. We analysed a series of factors: beginning and end harvest dates; the day on which a given potential alcoholic degree was reached; and yield for several varieties of grape grown in the area in relation to climatic variables. Maximum temperatures increased at all the observatories, with greater values being recorded in recent years (1996-2009) than in previous decades (1960s-2000s): we observed increases in average growing season temperatures of 0.11°C per year for the period 1996-2009 vs 0.04°C per year for the period 1960-2009 at Vilafranca del Penedès. These temperature changes were due mainly to increases in maximum temperatures and an increase in the incidence of extreme heat (number of days with T > 30°C). Crop evapotranspiration also increased significantly during the same period. The Winkler index also increased, so the study area would correspond to region IV according to that climatic classification. There were no significant trends in annual rainfall but rainfall recorded between bloom and veraison decreased significantly at the three observatories, with the greatest decrease corresponding to the period 1996-2009. The dates on which harvests started and ended showed a continuous advance (of between −0.7 and −1.1 days per year, depending on the variety), which was significantly correlated with the average mean and maximum daily growing season temperatures (up to −7.68 days for 1°C increase). Winegrape yield was influenced by the estimated water deficit (crop evapotranspiration minus precipitation) in the bloom-veraison period; this value increased due to a reduction in precipitation and an increase in evapotranspiration. Yield may have been reduced by up to 30 kg/ha for each millimetre increase in the estimated water deficit. Under these conditions, new strategies need to be followed in this area in order to maintain grape quality and yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change, whether natural or human-caused, will have an impact on human life, including recreation and tourism among other things. In this study, methods from biometeorology and tourism climatology are used to assess the effect of a changed climate on tourism and recreation in particular. The study area is the Black Forest mountainous region of south-west Germany, which is well known for its tourist and recreational assets. Climate model projections for the 2021-2050 period based on REMO-UBA simulations with a high spatial resolution of 10 km are compared to a 30-year reference period (1971-2000) using the IPCC emission scenarios A1B and B1. The results show that the mean winter air temperature will increase by up to 1.8°C, which is the most pronounced warming compared to the other seasons. The annual precipitation amount will increase marginally by 5% in the A1B scenario and 10% in the B1 scenario. Winter precipitation contributes about 10% (A1B) and 30% (B1) to variations in annual precipitation. Although the results show that winter precipitation will increase slightly, snow days affecting skiing will be reduced on average by approximately 40% due to regional warming. Cold stress will be reduced on average by up to 25%. The result is that the thermal environment will be advanced, and warmer winters are likely to lead to an upward altitudinal shift of ski resorts and winter sport activities, thus displacing land-use currently dedicated to nature conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) has been applied to the analysis of thermal bioclimatic conditions in Freiburg, Germany, to show if days with extreme bioclimatic conditions will change and how extreme thermal conditions can be modified by changes in mean radiant temperature and wind speed. The results show that there will be an increase of days with heat stress (PET > 35°C) in the order of 5% (from 9.2% for 1961–1990) and a decrease of days with cold stress (PET < 0°C) from 16.4% to 3.8% per year. The conditions can be modified by measures modifying radiation and wind speed in the order of more than 10% of days per year by reducing global radiation in complex structures or urban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological models are important tools for planning viticultural practices in the short term and for projecting the impact of climate change on grapevine ( Vitis vinifera) in the long term. However, the difficulties in obtaining phenological models which provide accurate predictions on a regional scale prevent them from being exploited to their full potential. The aim of this work was to obtain a robust phenological model for V. vinifera cv. Chardonnay. During calibration of the sub-models for budburst, flowering and veraison we implemented a series of measures to prevent overfitting and to give greater physiological meaning to the models. Among these were the use of experimental information on the response of Chardonnay to forcing temperatures, restriction of parameter space into physiologically meaningful limits prior to calibration, and simplification of the previously selected sub-models. The resulting process-based model had good internal validity and a good level of accuracy in predicting phenological events from external datasets. Model performance was especially high for the prediction of flowering and veraison, and comparison with other models confirmed it as a better predictor of phenology, even in extremely warm years. The modelling study highlighted a different phenological behaviour at the only mountain station, Cembra. We hypothesised that phenotypical plasticity could lead to growth rates adapting to a lower mean temperature, a mechanism not usually accounted for by phenological models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A preface to the journal "International Journal of Biometeorology" is presented.