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Background: Traditional null hypothesis significance testing suffers many limitations and is poorly adapted to theory testing., Purpose: A proposed alternative approach, called Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions, uses effect size estimates and confidence intervals to directly test predictions based on theory., Method: This paper replicates findings from previous smoking studies and extends the approach to diet and sun protection behaviors using baseline data from a Transtheoretical Model behavioral intervention (N = 5407). Effect size predictions were developed using two methods: (1) applying refined effect size estimates from previous smoking research or (2) using predictions developed by an expert panel., Results: Thirteen of 15 predictions were confirmed for smoking. For diet, 7 of 14 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 6 of 16 using expert panel predictions. For sun protection, 3 of 11 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 5 of 19 using expert panel predictions., Conclusion: Expert panel predictions and smoking-based predictions poorly predicted effect sizes for diet and sun protection constructs. Future studies should aim to use previous empirical data to generate predictions whenever possible. The best results occur when there have been several iterations of predictions for a behavior, such as with smoking, demonstrating that expected values begin to converge on the population effect size. Overall, the study supports necessity in strengthening and revising theory with empirical data.

Purpose: This research examined dynamic transtheoretical model (TTM) constructs for adopting sun protection practices. This secondary data analysis pooled four large population-based TTM-tailored intervention studies and examined use of constructs across three groups, organized by longitudinal progress: maintainers, relapsers, and stable non-changers., Methods: A total of 3463 adults, in the USA, who met criteria for unsafe sun exposure at baseline received a TTM-tailored computerized intervention at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. The final analytic sample consisted of 1894 participants; the majority were female, White, married, and middle-aged. The three groups were assessed with reliable and valid scales assessing use of TTM constructs at baseline, 6 months, 12 months, and 24 months. Analyses included a MANOVA followed by a series of ANOVAs, with Tukey follow-up tests assessing differences in use of TTM constructs across the three groups at each timepoint., Results: Findings demonstrated that relapsers and maintainers were similar in their use of most TTM processes of change at baseline, with the exception of Consciousness Raising, Stimulus Control, Reinforcement Management, and Self-Liberation., Conclusions: These findings suggest that although relapsers reverted to unsafe sun practices, their overall greater use of processes of change indicates that their change efforts remain better than that of stable non-changers.

Background: The transtheoretical model is an influential theoretical model in health psychology, particularly in its application to smoking cessation research. Decisional Balance (DB) and Temptations are key constructs within this framework., Purpose: This study examines the psychometric properties of the DB and Temptations scales for smoking in a predominantly African-American sample of urban adolescent girls., Methods: We used confirmatory factor analysis to compare the fit of previously published factor structures in smokers (n = 233) and nonsmokers (n = 598). External validity was tested by examining stages of change differences in the retained subscales., Results: Results supported the internal and external validity of the DB scale for smokers and nonsmokers. Notably, previously published three-factor (Social Pros, Coping Pros, Cons) and four-factor (Cons split into "Aesthetic Cons" and "Health Cons") models fit equally well, with Cons subscales correlating highly. For Temptations, a previously published three-factor (Negative Affect, Social, Weight Control) hierarchical model fit well in nonsmokers. In smokers, previously published subscales were reliably measured, but their structural relationship remained unclear. Stage difference tests showed medium to large effect sizes of DB and Temptation subscales in smokers and nonsmokers., Conclusions: The use of DB was validated for both smokers and nonsmokers in this sample of primarily African-American adolescent females, where Cons can be combined or separated into "Aesthetic Cons" and "Health Cons" based on practical utility and preference. For Temptations, more research is needed but large stage differences in Temptations subscales underscore the importance of this concept in smoking acquisition and cessation.