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Among the policy responses to the global financial crisis, the international provision of US dollars via central bank swap lines stands out. This paper studies the build-up of stresses on banks' balance sheets that led to this coordinated policy response. We reconstruct the worldwide consolidated balance sheets of the major national banking systems to investigate the structure of their global operations across offices worldwide, shedding light on how their international asset positions were funded across currencies and counterparties. The analysis shows how the growth in European banks' US dollar assets produced structural US dollar funding needs, setting the stage for the global dollar shortage when interbank and swap markets became impaired. We demonstrate that such vulnerabilities are best measured along the contours of banks' consolidated balance sheets, rather than along national borders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically assesses whether monetary policy and its volatility affect real economic activity through their effect on the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy. Analysts typically argue that monetary policy either does not affect the real economy (the classical dichotomy) or only affects the real economy in the short run through aggregate demand (new Keynesian or new classical theories). Real business cycle theorists try to explain the business cycle with supply-side productivity shocks. We provide some preliminary evidence about how monetary policy and its volatility affect the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy through their effect on total factor productivity and its volatility. Total factor productivity provides an important measure of supply-side performance. The results show that monetary policy and its volatility exert a positive and statistically significant effect on the supply side of the macroeconomy. Moreover, the findings buttress the importance of reducing short-run swings in monetary policy variables as well as support the adoption of an optimal money supply rule. Our results also prove consistent with the effective role of monetary policy during the so-called ‘Great Moderation’ in US gross domestic product volatility beginning in the early 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the yield curve (or alternatively, the term premium) as a predictor of future economic activity. In this article, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor for both the United States and other advanced economies. We examine the sensitivity of the results to the selection of countries, and to time periods. We find that the predictive power of the yield curve has deteriorated in the last half of the sample period, although there is evidence of a reversal in the lead-up to the Great Recession. There is reason to believe that European country models perform better than those with non-European countries when using more recent data. In addition, the yield curve proves to have predictive power even after accounting for other leading indicators of economic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]