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The relatively small panel cointegration literature on the dynamics between FDI and income inequality predominantly finds that FDI will reduce income inequality in the long-run in developed countries. However, we point out an important technical oversight in the literature. Not accounting for cross-section dependence in panel data methodologies may yield unreliable results. Expanding on the work of Herzer and Nunnenkamp [(2013). Inward and outward FDI and income inequality: Evidence from Europe. Review of World Economics, 149(2), 395–422. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-013-0148-3], who pioneered the use of panel cointegration in the European context, we obtain different results when we account for cross-section dependence and employ economic procedures robust to it. Using a panel containing 16 OECD countries (1979–2017), 2 income inequality measures, and 4 FDI measures, we begin by showing strong evidence for the existence of cross-section dependence. Then, using second-generation econometric procedures, we do not find any evidence for a cointegrating relationship between inward FDI and income inequality. We do find evidence that outward FDI is cointegrated with income inequality; however, contrary to the main results of the literature, we find that it widens the income gap in the long-run. Additionally, our results support the view that fiscal policy is an important tool to reduce income inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an original framework to examine whether the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, widely documented in the recent empirical literature, varies with the inflation rate. Using a Panel Smooth Threshold Regression for 71 developed and developing countries over the period 1960–2004, we find a non-linear link between financial development and economic growth: three equilibriums are identified with inflation rate. Then, there is an inflation threshold, for which finance ceases to increase economic growth. Our results suggest that for an inflation rate higher than 20%, economic growth is not, or is negatively, affected by financial development, whereas the impact of finance on growth is positive and significant for an inflation level below 10%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to investigate how forecasters in the foreign exchange market form expectations and whether the expectation formation process differs between industrialized and emerging countries. In order to explain the expectation formation of forecasters in countries and country groups, we analyze around 50,000 forecasts for 22 OECD member currencies. We find that differences between the way forecasters in industrialized countries and emerging countries form exchange rate expectations. However, we show that one important difference is due to a difference in forecasting behavior of emerging countries. Controlling for this feature lets the forecasting behavior in emerging countries resemble more the ones found for industrialized countries, but not for all forecast horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data for a sample of advanced and developing countries, the paper studies variation in the effects of aggregate demand shocks on the macro-economy and distinguish between the effects of expansionary and contractionary shocks. The aim is to study the determinants and implications of cyclicality across representative countries in each group. The composite evidence points to high degree of cyclicality in many countries. The risk of cyclicality is higher in developing countries as high trend inflation limits the scope to mobilize growth and increases downward rigidity of prices. Policy priorities in developing countries should be focused on fighting inflation and improving the investment environment towards maximizing the return on investment and sustaining growth and capacity building. Policy priorities in advanced countries should be focused on mobilizing resources to ease capacity constraints and finance larger investment, with limited crowding out, to maximize the potential of real growth and combat inflationary pressures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper calculates Theil's entropy index to measure the extent of productivity differences across 92 countries for the period from 1970 to 2003. While there is evidence of increasing differences in productivity across these countries, we observe different patterns when we group the countries by income levels. These differences seem to be decreasing among middle income developing and developed countries, whereas they seem to be widening among low and high income developing countries. The results of our multivariate time series analysis also suggest that FDI increases productivity differences among low and high income developing countries, whereas GDI reduces these differences among low income countries in the long-run. Granger causality test results indicate that while an increase in GDI leads to a decline in growth of trade, a higher growth of trade appears to be important for attracting FDI to middle income countries. Furthermore, a reduction in productivity differences and a higher FDI growth lead to higher growth of trade in developed countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether trade regionalism remains a stumbling block to economic globalization remains a debatable issue. This paper investigates the impact of trade regionalism on stock market segmentation for the case of AFTA, EU and NAFTA. We exploit the pricing error of the trading-bloc capital asset pricing model (TB-CAPM) as an indicator for stock market segmentation based on Akdogan (1992) and Adler and Qi (2003). We use intra-trade ratio as the indicator for trade regionalism. Controlling for other determinants for market integration, evidence is found that trade regionalism helps to explain stock market segmentation in EU and NAFTA, which are both dominated by developed countries. For NAFTA, the higher the intra-trade ratio the lower the degree of market segmentation within the trading bloc. For EU however, the intra-trade ratio contributes to higher stock market segmentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we examine the relationships between business cycles in the G7 countries. We focus on whether recessionary periods in one country are independent of the timing of recessions in other countries in the G7, using three different methods for dating recessions. We find that the evidence is mixed on whether phases of the business cycle in North America and in European countries are independent, or whether there is a common phase structure in the business cycle across all the G7 economies. NBER dates suggest that business cycles are synchronised, while other methods for generating business cycle chronologies are more consistent with regional, rather than international cycles. We also find mixed evidence on whether the UK is synchronised with European countries, while Japan quite clearly has the cycle that is most independent of other G7 countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We employ a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to analyze international spillover effects of US trade restrictions, modeled as a reduction of US imports. Our sample consists of the US and 25 countries in the rest of the world, grouped into larger regions comprising European nations, non-European industrial countries and emerging economies. We find US trade restrictions to reduce trade volumes and income levels in the rest of the world as well as in the US. The trade balance deteriorates across all world regions except in the US, where it is unaffected by the trade restrictions. We also model the effects of a trade war in which the rest of the world responds in equal measure to the trade restrictions imposed by the US. We again find that export and import activity recedes both in the US and in the rest of the world, although the resulting effects are now strongest in the short run. The trade balance improves in the rest of the world but deteriorates in the US. In terms of the GDP response, the rest of the world is initially much harder hit by the imposition of the retaliatory trade measure than is the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines aspects of R&D spillovers across countries, in particular, the role of international trade and human capital as the catalysts for international diffusion of technology. We present a new way of measuring foreign R&D stocks embodied in foreign intermediate goods and capital equipment, which we argue is free from the criticism of previous measures. With the pooled panel data spanning 1970 through 1995 for 103 countries, we find that the effects of foreign R&D on total factor productivity growth of both industrial countries and developing countries are substantial and that human capital is the most influential channel for absorbing foreign R&D spillovers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

"This paper develops a general equilibrium framework of a two-sector economy which incorporates illegal immigration in the presence of labor unions. It demonstrates that stricter enforcement of immigration laws, by reducing the demand for or supply of illegal aliens, benefits all legal workers in the economy. The model is used to evaluate the impact of these policy changes on national income. Results indicate that national income does not necessarily fall when immigration controls are tightened. The existence of a union mitigates the negative welfare impact of a reduction in the number of illegal immigrants.", (excerpt)

In the past decade, product-related environmental regulations (PRERs) aimed at environmental protection and consumers' health and safety were actively introduced in developed countries, led by the EU. This study examined the impact of two PRERs released by the EU—RoHS and REACH—on Malaysian and Vietnamese firms' compliance. The first analysis focuses on the R&D enhancement effect of PRERs. We then consider productivity as a realization of innovations and examine if the R&D enhanced by PRERs can promote further productivity. The result shows that the response to REACH can create incentives to advance R&D. Further estimations on the effect of induced R&D on firm productivity show a significant positive relationship between them. On the other hand, no relationship between the response to RoHS and R&D expenditure is found. Moreover, the analysis also shows that firms comply with RoHS and REACH in different ways, but just the ability to continue exporting to the EU motivates compliance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Germany has realized tremendous growth rates in the aftermath of the Second World War. Since the early 1970s, growth rates declined and settled down at a more or less constant rate of 2% per year, only to experience a renewed negative trend around the early 2000s. Estimating GMM growth models in a panel of 187 countries between 1970 and 2010, we illustrate that large parts of historical welfare increases have emerged due to conditional convergence, human capital accumulation, and innovation activity. Whereas conditional convergence was the main driver behind the extraordinary postwar growth rates in Germany, human capital accumulation in Germany currently lags behind the average level of most developed countries. While this may explain the moderate position of Germany in the group of the 25 richest countries, the developed countries on their part are experiencing a period of below-average GDP growth. In nearly all advanced economies, growth reveals a downward trend since the turn of the millennium. We argue that this decline must be traced back to a general lack of radically new ideas in the world economy. The explanation of the German growth crisis may thus be considered a blueprint of the situation in developed economies. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study looks at the link between the patterns of trade-revealed comparative advantage and net inward foreign direct investment in five developed countries: the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan, France, and Italy. It thus extends earlier work by Maskus and Webster (1995) who analyzed two countries, the United Kingdom and South Korea. Despite assertions in the literature that market access is the primary motive for foreign direct investment flows among developed countries, this study shows that there is a significant role for comparative advantage in determining inflows of foreign direct investment in developed countries, especially in the services industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quality of governance has been found to be significant in economic growth. We investigate, using a threshold technique, whether the quality of governance matters equally across all levels of economic development. We find that the quality of governance is most significant for only a subset of relatively poor countries, while education is most significant for the poorest countries, and region is most significant for the wealthiest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]