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With the exception of a few successes in trials of supportive care, the majority of interventional clinical trials for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) have not led to new therapies. To improve the likelihood of benefit from clinical trial interventions in ARDS, clinical trial design must be improved. To optimize trial design, many factors need to be considered including the type of therapy to be tested, the type of trial (phase 2 or 3), how patients will be selected, primary and secondary end-points, and strategy for conduct of the trial, including potential newer trial designs such as platform or adaptive trials. Of these, optimization of patient selection is central to the likelihood of success and is particularly relevant in ARDS, which is a heterogeneous clinical syndrome, not a homogeneous disease. Recent advances including improved understanding of pathophysiologic mechanisms and better tools for outcome prediction in ARDS should facilitate both predictive and prognostic enrichment. This commentary focuses on new information and novel methods for prognostic and predictive enrichment that may be useful to optimize patient selection and increase the likelihood of positive clinical trials in ARDS.

Purpose Previous studies assessing impact of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) on mortality have shown conflicting results. We sought to assess the independent association of ARDS with in-hospital mortality among intensive care unit (ICU) patients with sepsis. Methods We studied two prospective sepsis cohorts drawn from the Early Assessment of Renal and Lung Injury (EARLI; n = 474) and Validating Acute Lung Injury markers for Diagnosis (VALID; n = 337) cohorts. ARDS was defined by Berlin criteria. We used logistic regression to compare in-hospital mortality in patients with and without ARDS, controlling for baseline severity of illness. We also estimated attributable mortality, adjusted for illness severity by stratification. Results ARDS occurred in 195 EARLI patients (41%) and 99 VALID patients (29%). ARDS was independently associated with risk of hospital death in multivariate analysis, even after controlling for severity of illness, as measured by APACHE II (odds ratio [OR] 1.65 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02, 2.67), p = 0.04 in EARLI; OR 2.12 (CI 1.16, 3.92), p = 0.02 in VALID). Patients with severe ARDS (P/F

Mortality prediction in ARDS is important for prognostication and risk stratification. However, no prediction models have been independently validated. A combination of two biomarkers with age and APACHE III was superior in predicting mortality in the NHLBI ARDSNet ALVEOLI trial. We validated this prediction tool in two clinical trials and an observational cohort. The validation cohorts included 849 patients from the NHLBI ARDSNet Fluid and Catheter Treatment Trial (FACTT), 144 patients from a clinical trial of sivelestat for ARDS (STRIVE), and 545 ARDS patients from the VALID observational cohort study. To evaluate the performance of the prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), model discrimination, and calibration were assessed, and recalibration methods were applied. The biomarker/clinical prediction model performed well in all cohorts. Performance was better in the clinical trials with an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.70–0.79) in FACTT, compared to 0.72 (95% CI 0.67–0.77) in VALID, a more heterogeneous observational cohort. The AUC was 0.73 (95% CI 0.70–0.76) when FACTT and VALID were combined. We validated a mortality prediction model for ARDS that includes age, APACHE III, surfactant protein D, and interleukin-8 in a variety of clinical settings. Although the model performance as measured by AUC was lower than in the original model derivation cohort, the biomarker/clinical model still performed well and may be useful for risk assessment for clinical trial enrollment, an issue of increasing importance as ARDS mortality declines, and better methods are needed for selection of the most severely ill patients for inclusion.

PurposeAdvances in supportive care and ventilator management for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) have resulted in declines in short-term mortality, but risks of death after survival to hospital discharge have not been well described. Our objective was to quantify the difference between short-term and long-term mortality in ARDS and to identify risk factors for death and causes of death at 1 year among hospital survivors.MethodsThis multi-intensive care unit, prospective cohort included patients with ARDS enrolled between January 2006 and February 2010. We determined the clinical characteristics associated with in-hospital and 1-year mortality among hospital survivors and utilized death certificate data to identify causes of death.ResultsOf 646 patients hospitalized with ARDS, mortality at 1 year was substantially higher (41 %, 95% CI 37-45%) than in-hospital mortality (24%, 95% CI 21-27%), P < 0.0001. Among 493 patients who survived to hospital discharge, the 110 (22%) who died in the subsequent year were older (P < 0.001) and more likely to have been discharged to a nursing home, other hospital, or hospice compared to patients alive at 1 year (P < 0.001). Important predictors of death among hospital survivors were comorbidities present at the time of ARDS, and not living at home prior to admission. ARDS-related measures of severity of illness did not emerge as independent predictors of mortality in hospital survivors.ConclusionsDespite improvements in short-term ARDS outcomes, 1-year mortality is high, mostly because of the large burden of comorbidities, which are prevalent in patients with ARDS.

Katayama, M., Ishizaka, A., Sakamoto, M. et al. Intensive Care Med (2010) 36: 479. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00134-009-1719-6, Objective: Laminin-5, a cell adhesive molecule expressed solely by epithelium, is known to enhance epithelial cell migration and repair of injured epithelium, after its essential component γ2-chain is processed proteolytically. Our previous study revealed circulating levels of amino-terminal fragment of laminin γ2-chain (G2F) reflect epithelial tumor invasiveness in carcinoma patients, but its physiological role in alveolar epithelial injury remains unknown., Design: Sampling of epithelial lining fluids or pulmonary edema fluids from patients with acute lung injury (ALI) or related diseases was performed. Plasma samples were obtained from them at the time of disease onset or later. G2F concentrations were determined by immunoassay constructed by ourselves., Results: We found a significantly higher amount of G2F in pulmonary edema and epithelial lining fluids of patients with ALI, as compared with those with the other respiratory diseases. Their plasma levels were also elevated significantly early at the onset of ALI (mean ± SD; 147 ± 82 ng/ml in non-surviving and 90 ± 56 in surviving patients) as compared with those in the patients with cardiogenic pulmonary edema (59 ± 36) or idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (37 ± 17), indicating alveolar epithelium rapidly secrete laminin-5 in ALI. At 5 days after onset, non-surviving patients maintained higher plasma concentrations (152 ± 84), but in contrast, the levels in surviving patients declined (71 ± 35), suggesting secretion of laminin-5 was suppressed, associated with recovery from ALI., Conclusion: Circulating G2F may be a biomarker for alveolar laminin-5 secreted early at disease onset in ALI, potentially regulating alveolar re-epithelialization.

To determine if levels of soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), a marker of alveolar epithelial and endothelial injury, differ in patients with hydrostatic pulmonary edema and acute lung injury (ALI) and are associated with clinical outcomes in patients with ALI.Measurement of sICAM-1 levels in (1) plasma and edema fluid from 67 patients with either hydrostatic pulmonary edema or ALI enrolled in an observational, prospective single center study, and (2) in plasma from 778 patients with ALI enrolled in a large multi-center randomized controlled trial of ventilator strategy.In the single-center study, levels of sICAM-1 were significantly higher in both edema fluid and plasma (median 938 and 545 ng/ml, respectively) from ALI patients compared to hydrostatic edema patients (median 384 and 177 ng/ml, P0.03 for both comparisons). In the multi-center study, higher plasma sICAM-1 levels were associated with poor clinical outcomes in both unadjusted and multivariable models. Subjects with ALI whose plasma sICAM-1 levels increased over the first 3 days of the study had a higher risk of death, after adjusting for other important predictors of outcome (odds ratio 1.48; 95% CI 1.03-2.12, P = 0.03).Both plasma and edema fluid levels of sICAM-1 are higher in patients with ALI than in patients with hydrostatic pulmonary edema. Higher plasma sICAM-1 levels and increasing sICAM-1 levels over time are associated with poor clinical outcomes in ALI. Measurement of sICAM-1 levels may be useful for identifying patients at highest risk of poor outcomes from ALI.

There is evidence that dysregulation of coagulation and fibrinolysis may participate in the pathogenesis of acute lung injury (ALI) and the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Altered concentrations of several proteins of the coagulation and fibrinolytic pathways in plasma and pulmonary edema fluid from patients with acute lung injury have been related to the severity of lung injury and clinical outcomes. Polymorphisms in the genes encoding for proteins of the protein C and fibrinolysis pathways are known to regulate the production of the respective proteins. It is plausible that these polymorphisms may be associated with the susceptibility to and severity of illness in ALI and ARDS. Well-designed studies that examine the association of these polymorphisms with susceptibility and severity of ALI and ARDS are needed to test the influence of both genetic and environmental factors on the clinical outcomes in patients with ALI and ARDS. There are several important considerations in the design of these genetic association studies, including selection of candidate genes with the most biological plausibility, definition of the phenotype, selection of appropriate controls, determination of the appropriate sample size and assessment of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium among controls as a measure of internal validity.

To assess the associations between a priori-selected markers of inflammation and coagulation and delirium during critical illness.In this prospective cohort study, we collected blood from mechanically ventilated medical intensive care unit (ICU) patients and measured nine plasma markers of inflammation and coagulation. We assessed patients daily for delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU and used multivariable regression to analyze the associations between plasma markers and subsequent delirium, after adjusting for age, severity of illness, and sepsis.Among the 138 patients studied, with median age of 66 years and median Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II of 27, 107 (78 %) were delirious at some point during the study. Two markers of inflammation and one of coagulation were significantly associated with delirium. After adjusting for covariates, lower plasma concentrations of matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) and protein C were associated with increased probability of delirium (p = 0.04 and 0.01, respectively), and higher concentrations of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR1) were associated with increased probability of delirium (p0.01). Concentrations of C-reactive protein (p = 0.82), myeloperoxidase (p = 0.11), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (p = 0.70), D-dimer (p = 0.83), plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 (p = 0.98), and Von Willebrand factor antigen (p = 0.65) were not associated with delirium.In this study, MMP-9, protein C, and sTNFR1 were independently associated with subsequent ICU delirium. These results suggest that specific aspects of inflammation and coagulation may play a role in the evolution of delirium during critical illness and that these markers should be examined in larger studies of ICU patients.

Objective Thombomodulin (TM) is an activator of protein C and a biomarker for endothelial injury. We hypothesized that (1) elevated plasma levels would be associated with clinical outcomes and (2) polymorphisms in the TM gene would be associated with plasma levels.

The primary objective was to test the hypothesis that clinical re-expansion pulmonary edema is predominantly due to increased permeability of the alveolar-capillary barrier. A secondary objective was to determine if the alveolar epithelium was functionally intact in patients with re-expansion pulmonary edema by measuring net alveolar epithelial fluid transport in a subset of patients.Retrospective study of mechanically ventilated patients with re-expansion pulmonary edema.Two academic tertiary care hospitals.Seven patients with acute onset of re-expansion pulmonary edema after tube thoracostomy or thoracentesis.Pulmonary edema fluid and plasma were collected at the time of onset of re-expansion edema.Contrary to our hypothesis, the mean initial edema fluid to plasma protein ratio was 0.58+/-0.21, supporting a hydrostatic mechanism of edema formation. Four of the patients had an initial edema fluid to plasma protein ratio of less than 0.65, consistent with pure hydrostatic pulmonary edema, while the others had a slight increase in permeability (edema fluid to plasma ratios of 0.67, 0.71 and 0.77), perhaps due to capillary stress failure from hydrostatic stress. Alveolar fluid clearance (mean 9.8+/-8.0%/h) was intact in the subset of three patients in whom it was measured.This study provides the first direct evidence that hydrostatic forces may contribute to the development of re-expansion pulmonary edema.

Objective. Experimental studies demonstrate that β-adrenergic agonists markedly stimulate alveolar fluid clearance if concentrations of 10–6 M are achieved in alveolar fluid. However, no studies have determined whether aerosolized β-adrenergic agonists are delivered to the distal air spaces of the lung in therapeutic concentrations in patients with pulmonary edema. Design and setting. This retrospective study measured albuterol levels in the pulmonary edema fluid and plasma from mechanically ventilated patients with pulmonary edema from a hydrostatic mechanism (n=10) or from acute lung injury (n=12). Measurements and results. After a total aerosolized albuterol dose of 4.2±3.2 mg in the prior 6 h the median pulmonary edema fluid albuterol level was 1,250 ng/ml (10–6 M) in patients with hydrostatic pulmonary edema; after 3.5±2.6 mg the figure was 1,240 ng/ml (10–6 M) in patients with pulmonary edema from acute lung injury. Plasma albuterol levels were much lower, with a median of 5.2 ng/ml (0.01×10–6 M) in patients with hydrostatic pulmonary edema and 3.1 ng/ml (0.01×10–6 M) in patients with pulmonary edema from acute lung injury. Conclusions. These results provide the first evidence that levels of β-adrenergic agonists that are physiologically efficacious in experimental models can be achieved with conventional delivery systems in ventilated, critically ill patients with acute respiratory failure from pulmonary edema.