1. Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?
- Author
-
Thomas Harjes and Helge Berger
- Subjects
Inflation ,Japanisch ,Geldpolitik ,Gesamtwirtschaftliche Liquidität ,Welt ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Geography, Planning and Development ,monetary policy ,jel:F42 ,euro area ,Monetary economics ,Development ,jel:C22 ,Global excess liquidity,euro area,inflation,monetary policy,interest rate channel,forecasting accuracy ,Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ,ddc:330 ,forecasting accuracy ,Economics ,Price level ,inflation ,C53 ,E52 ,interest rate channel ,E31 ,General Environmental Science ,media_common ,A determinant ,Global excess liquidity ,jel:C53 ,Monetary policy ,300 Sozialwissenschaften::330 Wirtschaft::337 Weltwirtschaft ,Interest rate channel ,jel:E52 ,jel:E31 ,Market liquidity ,Interest rate ,Euro Area ,Europe ,Interest rates ,Japan ,United States ,Global excess liquidity, interest rate channel, forecasting accuracy, price level, money stock, monetary aggregates ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,300 Sozialwissenschaften::330 Wirtschaft::339 Makroökonomie und verwandte Themen ,Amerikanisch ,C22 ,Finance ,F42 - Abstract
Global excess liquidity roaming the world’s financial markets (or its sudden absence) is sometimes believed to limit sovereign monetary policy even in large economies such as the euro area. However, there is still discussion about what constitutes global excess liquidity and how exactly it shapes the policy environment. Our approach adjusts liquidity for longerterm interest rate and output effects and focuses on U.S. and Japanese liquidity as relevant proxies for global developments from a euro area perspective. We find that both excess liquidity in Japan and, in particular, the U.S. tend to lead developments in euro area liquidity. U.S. excess liquidity also enters consistently positive as a determinant of euro area inflation and is shown to be Granger-causal for euro area inflation in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. In part, this result seems to be related to a weakening of the euro area interest rate channel during times of excessive U.S. liquidity. In contrast, the influence of Japanese and euro area excess liquidity on euro area inflation is more limited.
- Published
- 2009
- Full Text
- View/download PDF