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Power system inertia is declining and is increasingly variable and uncertain in regions where the penetration of non-synchronous generation and interconnectors is growing. This presents a challenge to power system operators who must take appropriate actions to ensure the stability and security of power systems relying on short-term forecasts of the system’s inertial response. Existing models to forecast inertia fail to quantify uncertainty, which may prevent their utilization given the risk aversion of the system operators when handling stability issues. This paper is the first to develop a model to produce calibrated, data-driven probabilistic forecasts of the inertia contribution of transmission-connected synchronous generators. The model provides a necessary tool for system operators to quantify forecast uncertainty, allowing them to manage the risk of frequency instability cost-effectively. The paper demonstrates that the assumption of a Gaussian distribution of uncertainty applied in existing models is not acceptable to accurately forecast the inertial response and provides a satisfactory forecast model by combining non-parametric density forecasting with parametric tail distributions. Moreover, the paper shows that satisfactory predictive performance can only be achieved by adopting a rolling horizon forecast approach to deal with the rapidly changing characteristics of the inertial response in power systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This letter proposes a transferrable model-agnostic meta-learning (T-MAML) approach for short-term load forecasting for single households. The proposed approach enables multiple households to collaboratively train a generic artificial neural network (ANN) model. The generic ANN model is then further trained at each target household node for the STLF purpose. The proposed T-MAML based STLF approach is featured by: (1) significant reduction of computation and communication costs on the household side; and (2) superior STLF performance, especially when there is limited load data for training in a target household. Experiments based on a real Australian residential dataset are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an important application in the power system operation and electricity market clearing, the network-constrained unit commitment (NCUC) problem is usually executed by Independent System Operators (ISO) in an open-looped predict-then-optimize (O-PO) process, in which an upstream prediction (e.g., on renewable energy sources (RES) and loads) and a downstream NCUC are executed in a queue. However, in the O-PO framework, a statistically more accurate prediction may not necessarily lead to a higher NCUC economics against actual RES and load realizations. To this end, this paper presents a closed-loop predict-and-optimize (C-PO) framework for improving the NCUC economics. Specifically, the C-PO leverages structures (i.e., constraints and objective) of the NCUC model and relevant feature data to train a cost-oriented RES prediction model, in which the prediction quality is evaluated via the induced NCUC cost instead of the statistical forecast errors. Therefore, the loop between the prediction and the optimization is closed to deliver a cost-oriented RES power prediction for NCUC optimization. Lagrangian relaxation is adopted to accelerate the training process, making the C-PO applicable for real-world systems. Case studies on an IEEE RTS 24-bus system and an ISO-scale 5655-bus system with real-world data show that the proposed C-PO can effectively improve the NCUC economics as compared to the traditional O-PO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an efficient tool for uncertainty quantification of renewable energy forecasting, prediction intervals (PIs) provide essential prognosis to power system operator. Merely improving the statistical quality of PIs with respect to calibration and sharpness cannot always contribute to the operational value for specific decision-making issue. In this paper, the cost-oriented prediction intervals are firstly proposed to achieve the joint improvement of forecasting quality and decision performance. In order to bridge the gap between forecasting and decision, a novel cost-oriented machine learning (COML) framework is established, which unifies nonparametric renewable power PI construction and decision-making. Formulated as a bilevel programming model, the COML minimizes the operational costs of decision-making process by adaptively adjusting the quantile proportion pair of PIs resulting from extreme learning machine based quantile regression. The hierarchical optimization model of the COML is equivalently simplified as a single level nonlinear programming problem. Then an enhanced branch-and-contract algorithm with innovative bounds contraction strategy is devised to efficiently capture the optimum of the single level problem with bilinear nonconvexity. Numerical experiments based on actual wind farm data simulate the online forecasting and decision process for wind power offering. Comprehensive comparisons verify the substantial superiority of the proposed COML methodology in terms of forecasting quality, operational value, as well as computational efficiency for practical application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reliable operation of a power distribution system relies on a good prior knowledge of its topology and its system state. Although crucial, due to the lack of direct monitoring devices on the switch statuses, the topology information is often unavailable or outdated for the distribution system operators for real-time applications. Apart from the limited observability of the power distribution system, other challenges are the nonlinearity of the model, the complicated, unbalanced structure of the distribution system, and the scale of the system. To overcome the above challenges, this paper proposes a Bayesian-inference framework that allows us to simultaneously estimate the topology and the state of a three-phase, unbalanced power distribution system. Specifically, by using the very limited number of measurements available that are associated with the forecast load data, we efficiently recover the full Bayesian posterior distributions of the system topology under both normal and outage operation conditions. This is performed through an adaptive importance sampling procedure that greatly alleviates the computational burden of the traditional Monte-Carlo (MC)-sampling-based approach while maintaining a good estimation accuracy. The simulations conducted on the IEEE 123-bus test system and an unbalanced 1282-bus system reveal the excellent performances of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stochastic cloud cover on photovoltaic (PV) panels affects the solar power outputs, producing high instability in the integrated power systems. It is an effective approach to track the cloud motion during short-term PV power forecasting based on data sources of satellite images. However, since temporal variations of these images are noisy and non-stationary, pixel-sensitive prediction methods are critically needed in order to seek a balance between the forecast precision and the huge computation burden due to a large image size. Hence, a graphical learning framework is proposed in this study for intra-hour PV power prediction. By simulating the cloud motion using bi-directional extrapolation, a directed graph is generated representing the pixel values from multiple frames of historical images. The nodes and edges in the graph denote the shapes and motion directions of the regions of interest (ROIs) in satellite images. A spatial-temporal graph neural network (GNN) is then proposed to deal with the graph. Comparing with conventional deep-learning-based models, GNN is more flexible for varying sizes of input, in order to be able to handle dynamic ROIs. Referring to the comparative studies, the proposed method greatly reduces the redundancy of image inputs without sacrificing the visual scope, and slightly improves the prediction accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainties in renewable generation make accurate load forecast essential for reliable power system operation. This paper considers energy imbalance market (EIM), where market players are allowed to procure energy ahead of time and trade the mismatch due to forecast error and strategic behaviors. The ISO sets the trading prices according to the market conditions, and pursues various system-level objectives. We first identify the power-law relationship between data volume and forecast accuracy, which enables the formulation of forecast cost model. Then, we cast the interactions in the EIM in the Stackelberg game framework with the ISO acting as the leader. We offer explicit subgame perfect equilibrium among the players in EIM, and derive the sufficient condition for the existence of unique equilibrium. Then, we show that this equilibrium, if exists, supports the maximal social welfare and under certain conditions, minimizes the total mismatch. We further examine the local and global impacts of the forecast errors under mild conditions, together with robustness analysis. Such analysis provides mechanism design guidelines for the ISO to enable the data sharing and forecast method sharing among market players in the EIM. Numerical studies further examine the effectiveness, robustness and sensitivity of the subgame. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Load forecasting is one of the most important and studied topics in modern power systems. Most of the existing research on day-ahead load forecasting try to build a good model to improve the forecasting accuracy. The forecasted load is then used as the input to generation scheduling with the ultimate goal of minimizing the cost of generation schedules. However, existing day-ahead load forecasting models do not consider this ultimate goal at the training/forecasting stage. This paper proposes a task-based day-ahead load forecasting model labeled as LfEdNet that combines two individual layers in one model, including a load forecasting layer based on deep neural network (Lf layer) and a day-ahead stochastic economic dispatch (SED) layer (Ed layer). The training of LfEdNet aims to minimize the cost of the day-ahead SED in the Ed layer by updating the parameters of the Lf layer. Sequential quadratic programming (SQP) is used to solve the day-ahead SED in the Ed layer. The test results demonstrate that the forecasted results produced by LfEdNet can lead to lower cost of day-ahead SED at the expense of slight reduction in forecasting accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has urged many governments in the world to enforce a strict lockdown where all nonessential businesses are closed and citizens are ordered to stay at home. One of the consequences of this policy is a significant change in electricity consumption patterns. Since load forecasting models rely on calendar or meteorological information and are trained on historical data, they fail to capture the significant break caused by the lockdown and have exhibited poor performances since the beginning of the pandemic. In this paper we introduce two methods to adapt generalized additive models, alleviating the aforementioned issue. Using Kalman filters and fine-tuning allows to adapt quickly to new electricity consumption patterns without requiring exogenous information. The proposed methods are applied to forecast the electricity demand during the French lockdown period, where they demonstrate their ability to significantly reduce prediction errors compared to traditional models. Finally, expert aggregation is used to leverage the specificities of each predictions and enhance results even further. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind power producers participating in day-ahead electricity markets are compelled to pay imbalance costs if they do not generate the same amount of power as they had bid for. These imbalance costs comprise a significant proportion of their income. To reduce the risk of such financial losses, this paper employs the idea of trading in a separate prediction market, as a hedging method. In prediction markets, participants trade shares associated with a certain outcome of an event. We propose that the wind power producers might participate in a prediction market to trade the future value of the wind power and by taking an opposite position in comparison to the electricity market, the imbalance costs will be offset through payouts in the prediction market. Wind power is modelled as a stochastic variable and an optimal trading strategy is developed where the trading volume in the prediction market is analytically derived and formulated by minimising the maximum possible loss and pricing of shares is determined via indifference utility condition. The results suggest that the proposed method limits the loss values and improves the risk measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adequate reserves are urgently needed to hedge against wind power forecasting uncertainties in power systems. Traditional reserve quantification sequentially acquires statistical features of wind power and then determines reserve amounts. This paper establishes a novel integrated probabilistic forecasting and decision (IPFD) methodology to simultaneously optimize the wind power prediction intervals (PIs) and probabilistic reserve quantification. Upward and downward reserve quantities are defined to cover the wind power forecasting uncertainties within the PIs. A cost function evaluating the reserve provision payment and deficit penalty is elaborated to realize cost-benefit trade-offs of reserve decision. Nonparametric wind power PIs are constructed based on extreme learning machine, which minimizes the reserve cost function subject to eligible target coverage probability constraint. The confidence level and quantile proportions associated with wind power PIs can be jointly tuned to reduce the operational cost of reserves. Benefited from extreme learning machine, the IPFD model is reformulated as a mixed integer linear programming problem. A feasible region tightening strategy that shrinks the large constant coefficients and eliminates the redundant binary variables is proposed to accelerate model training. Numerical experiments based on actual wind power data demonstrate the remarkable cost-effective advantages of the IPFD based reserve quantification, as well as the high computational efficiency for online application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A prior knowledge of residential load demand is critical for power system operations at the distribution level, such as economic dispatch, demand response and energy storage schedule. However, as residential customers perform more casual and active consumption behaviors, prediction of such highly volatile loads can be much harder. Owing to the development of sensor technology, micrometeorological data can be sampled with a high geographic resolution. Those data that represent the weather condition on the land surface show a strong relationship to the residential load evidently, whereas it remains unsolved on how to fully utilize those great number of datasets. This paper proposes a day-ahead probabilistic residential load forecasting method based on a novel deep learning model, named convolutional neural network with squeeze-and-excitation modules (CNN-SE), and micrometeorological data. The model can employ multi-channel input data with dissimilar weights, suitable for analyzing massive relevant input factors. A feature extraction method is adopted for customer consumption pattern based on sparse auto-encoder (SAE), which can help correct probabilistic forecasting results. A case study that covers 8 residential communities and 18 micrometeorological sites is conducted to validate the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed hybrid method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Load forecasting is of crucial importance for operations of electric power systems. In recent years, deep learning based methods are emerging for load forecasting because their strong nonlinear approximation capabilities can provide more forecasting precision than conventional statistical methods. However, they usually suffer from some problems, e.g., the gradient vanishment and over-fitting. In order to address these problems, an unshared convolution based deep learning model with densely connected network is proposed. In this model, the backbone is the unshared convolutional neural network and a densely connected structure is adopted, which could alleviate the gradient vanishment. What is more, we use a regularization method named clipped $L_2$ -norm to overcome over-fitting, and design a trend decomposition strategy to address the possible distribution differences between the training and validation data. Finally, we conduct five case studies to verify the outperformance of our proposed deep learning model for deterministic and interval load forecasting. Two high-voltage and an medium-voltage real load datasets from Australia, Germany and America are used for model training and validation, respectively. Results show that the proposed model can achieve higher load forecasting accuracy, compared with other existing methods including the popular conventional methods such as naive forecast and generalized additive model, and deep learning methods, e.g., long short-term memory network, convolutional neural network, fully connected network, etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the visibility and controllability features of the latest distribution networks, there are potentials to model customer loads through a component-based approach more accurately. The electricity markets started in recent years enable trading and exchanges of electricity among traditional power stations and prosumers. It provides a possibility to improve the optimality of classical volt-var optimization (VVO) schemes. In this paper, a tri-level bottom-up load model and a market-based volt-var optimization (mVVO) model are proposed. The energy-to-voltage (ETV) parameter is proposed in our load model as a substitute for the widely used load-to-voltage (LTV) parameter to reflect long-term load characteristics. The mVVO model using ETV parameters aims to combine the optimal voltage regulation strategies and electricity purchase strategies from wholesale and retail markets for maximum cost saving. The case studies based on real load data of Hong Kong show that by coordinating the voltage regulation methods with market behaviors, utilities can reach a higher level of cost saving, in addition to energy saving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and rapid load forecasting for industrial customers has been playing a crucial role in modern power systems. Due to the variability of industrial customers’ activities, individual industrial loads are usually too volatile to forecast accurately. In this paper, a short-term load forecasting model for industrial customers based on the Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) is proposed. Firstly, a fixed-length sliding time window method is adopted to reconstruct the electrical features. Next, the TCN is utilized to extract the hidden information and long-term temporal relationships in the input features including electrical features, a meteorological feature and date features. Further, a state-of-the-art LightGBM capable of forecasting industrial customers’ loads is adopted. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated by using datasets from different industries in China, Australia and Ireland. Multiple experiments and comparisons with existing models show that the proposed model provides accurate load forecasting results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, previous theory and results regarding Low-Voltage (LV) distribution losses are validated through power-flow simulation using real load data with standard metering resolution. The validated results are then used to build a generalized loss prediction model for arbitrary grid topologies and metering resolutions. The paper provides the theoretical background to build and generalize a loss prediction model based on load variances together with an approach to estimate such variances. The prediction model uses as explanatory variables the variances of the loads. Yet, such variances are usually unknown for the higher metering resolutions, so the model also proposes a method to predict the higher resolution variances based on the standard metering ones. Results are presented to illustrate the approach proposed and to estimate the increase in losses expected for typical LV grids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work we address the problem of short-term load forecasting. We propose a generalization of the linear state-space model where the evolution of the state and the observation matrices is unknown. The proposed blind Kalman filter algorithm proceeds via alternating the estimation of these unknown matrices and the inference of the state, within the framework of expectation-maximization. A mini-batch processing strategy is introduced to allow on-the-fly forecasting. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art techniques by a considerable margin, both on load profile estimation and peak load forecast problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inspired from recent insights into the common ground of machine learning, optimization and decision-making, this paper proposes an easy-to-implement, but effective procedure to enhance both the quality of renewable energy forecasts and the competitive edge of renewable energy producers in electricity markets with a dual-price settlement of imbalances. The quality and economic gains brought by the proposed procedure essentially stem from the utilization of valuable predictors (also known as features) in a data-driven newsvendor model that renders a computationally inexpensive linear program. We illustrate the proposed procedure and numerically assess its benefits on a realistic case study that considers the aggregate wind power production in the Danish DK1 bidding zone as the variable to be predicted and traded. Within this context, our procedure leverages, among others, spatial information in the form of wind power forecasts issued by transmission system operators (TSO) in surrounding bidding zones and publicly available in online platforms. We show that our method is able to improve the quality of the wind power forecast issued by the Danish TSO by several percentage points (when measured in terms of the mean absolute or the root mean square error) and to significantly reduce the balancing costs incurred by the wind power producer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate Frequency Response Estimation (FRE) is critical to reliability risk management of large power system disturbances. This letter proposes a measurement-driven approach for FRE by calculating the second derivative of frequency from synchrophasor data. Compared with conventional methods, the proposed method has major advantages of low computational burden and high accuracy, which makes it appropriate for real-time FRE in bulk power systems. The effectiveness of this method is validated with actual synchrophasor data on 96 confirmed historical power system disturbances in the U.S. eastern interconnection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric vehicles (EVs) provide new options for energy balancing of power systems. One possible way to use EVs in energy balancing is to let each distribution system mitigate its forecast uncertainties through the flexibility of EVs. In consideration of the difficulties to directly govern a large number of EVs, it is more reasonable for distribution systems to dispatch electric vehicle aggregators (EVAs). Without influencing driving activities of EVs in the next day, a model is established for distribution systems to make use of EVAs, whose contributions are delaying uncertainties through their temporal flexibility and thus creating opportunities for uncertainties from different hours to offset each other. In the established model, a scheme of uncertainty transferring is proposed to relieve interruption to EVAs and distributionally robust optimization is adopted to evaluate the operation plans’ average performance with temporal and spatial uncertainty correlations considered. Comprehensive case studies are carried out based on charging demands of EVAs simulated from real traffic data to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and reliable low-voltage load forecasting is critical to optimal operation and control of distribution network and smart grid. However, compared to traditional regional load forecasting at high-voltage level, it faces tough challenges due to the inherent high uncertainty of the low-capacity load and distributed renewable energy integrated in the demand side. This paper proposes a novel hybrid ensemble deep learning (HEDL) approach for deterministic and probabilistic low-voltage load forecasting. The deep belief network (DBN) is applied to low-voltage load point prediction with the strong ability of approximating nonlinear mapping. A series of ensemble learning methods including bagging and boosting variants are introduced to improve the regression ability of DBN. In addition, the differencing transformation technique is utilized to ensure the stationarity of load time series for the application bagging and boosting methods. On the basis of the integrated thought of ensemble learning, a new hybrid ensemble algorithm is developed via integrating multiple separate ensemble methods. Considering the diversity in various ensemble algorithms, an effective K nearest neighbor classification method is utilized to adaptively determine the weights of sub-models. Furthermore, HEDL based probabilistic forecasting is proposed by taking advantage of the inherent resample idea in bagging and boosting. The effectiveness of the HEDL method for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting has been systematically verified based on realistic load data from East China and Australia, indicating its promising prospective for practical applications in distribution networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demand-side management (DSM) increases the complexity of forecasting environment, which makes traditional forecasting methods difficult to meet the firm's need for predictive accuracy. Since deep learning can comprehensively consider various factors to improve prediction results, this paper improves the deep belief network from three aspects of input data, model and performance, and uses it to solve the short-term load forecasting problem in DSM. In the data optimization stage, the Hankel matrix is constructed to increase the input weight of DSM data, and the gray relational analysis is used to select strongly correlated data from the data set. In the model optimization stage, the Gauss-Bernoulli restricted Boltzmann machine is used as the first restricted Boltzmann machine of the deep network to convert the continuity feature of input data into binomial distribution feature. In the performance optimization stage, a pre-training method combining error constraint and unsupervised learning is proposed to provide good initial parameters, and the global fine-tuning of network parameters is realized based on the genetic algorithm. Based on the actual data of Tianjin Power Grid in China, the experimental results show that the proposed method is superior to other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term load forecasting has been playing an increasingly important role in electric power systems. Effective forecasting of the future electricity demand, however, is difficult in view of the complicated effects on load by a variety of factors. A hybrid method based support vector regression (SVR) with meteorological factors and electricity price is proposed to address such problem. First, the input used in this paper, are specific ratio value combinations of each characteristic parameter affecting the hourly electricity load. Second, SVR is used to analyze and develop a load forecasting model. Third, an improved adaptive genetic algorithm (IAGA) is utilized to optimize the specific ratio value combinations of each characteristic parameter, penalty factor C and Gaussian kernel function σ to accurately establish a forecasting model. The experimental results show that the proposed method can obtain better forecasting performance in comparison with other standard and state-of-the-art methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate forecasting-aided state estimation plays a vital role in reliable and secure operation of power systems. However, most of existing methods are unable to deal with the uncertainties that might be caused by uncertain model parameters or uncertain noise statistics. Therefore, the performance of these methods may be inevitably degraded significantly. To address these issues, based on the robust control theory, in this paper, by incorporating the modified innovation based Sage-Husa estimator of noise statistics and the proposed estimation error covariance matrix adaptive technique, a novel adaptive $H_{\infty }$ extended Kalman filter (AHEKF) is developed to realize robust forecasting-aided state estimation for power system with model uncertainties. Extensive simulations carried out on several different test systems demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high penetration of renewable energy will substantially change the power system operation. Traditionally, the annual operation of a power system can be represented by some typical operation modes and acts as the basis for the power-system-related analysis. The introduction of highly penetrated renewable energy will make the power system operation mode highly diversified and variable. These modes may not follow traditional empirical patterns. In this paper, we propose a data-driven method based on high-dimensional power system operation data (including power flow, unit generation, and load demand) to identify the pattern of the operation modes and analyze the impact of high renewable penetration. Specifically, the proposed data-driven method is composed of simulation, preprocessing, clustering, dimension reduction, and visualization with the aim to provide an intuitive understanding of the operation mode variety under high renewable penetration. In addition, several indices are introduced to quantify the space dispersion, time variation, and seasonal consistency of operation modes. A case study on actual Qinghai provincial power system in China validates the effectiveness of the proposed data-driven method and indicates that the dispersion and time variation of operation mode will significantly increase in the beginning and then saturate with the increase in renewable penetration level. The operation mode is also less correlated with seasons in renewable energy dominated power system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term probabilistic load forecasting is essential to power systems management and optimization of power flows across transmission networks. Developing forecasting tools capable of providing accurate predictions must comply with their practical implementation in short-term operations, mainly in terms of fast computing and high efficiency. Many data-driven forecasting solutions are often unnecessarily verbose, thus making their practical value limited. This problem occurs more frequently when multiple loads have to be predicted simultaneously, as in power transmission system analysis and optimization. In this paper, we propose a new cooperative forecasting system that refines probabilistic forecasts of individual loads online. The refining procedure is based on a multivariate quantile regression, which is dynamically applied to the individual forecasts as new observations become available. The proposal is validated on the load data published by ISO New England for eight regions, covering six states of the United States. The quality of probabilistic forecasts is assessed in terms of reliability and sharpness, comparing the results to three benchmarks. The proposed method outperforms the best benchmark by up to 6% w.r.t. the reduction in pinball loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity market price predictions enable energy market participants to shape their consumption or supply while meeting their economic and environmental objectives. By utilizing the basic properties of the supply-demand matching process performed by grid operators, known as optimal power flow (OPF), we develop a methodology to recover energy market's structure and predict the resulting nodal prices by using only publicly available data, specifically grid-wide generation type mix, system load, and historical prices. Our methodology uses the latest advancements in statistical learning to cope with high-dimensional and sparse real power grid topologies, as well as scarce, public market data, while exploiting structural characteristics of the underlying OPF mechanism. Rigorous validations using the Southwest power pool market data reveal strong correlation between the grid level mix and corresponding market prices, resulting in accurate day-ahead predictions of real-time prices. The proposed approach demonstrates a remarkable proximity to the state-of-the-art industry benchmark, while assuming a fully decentralized, market-participant perspective. Finally, we recognize limitations of the proposed and other evaluated methodologies in predicting large price spike values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distribution system state estimation (DSSE) has recently been tested and experimentally deployed in some practical distribution networks. Distinct features of distribution systems, such as diverse and unsymmetrical configurations as well as limited real-time measurements, prohibit the direct application of mature state estimation methods for transmission systems. Targeting at three-phase four-conductor configured unsymmetrical medium-voltage distribution systems (MDS) with neutral conductors and ground resistances, this paper proposes a weighted least square-based DSSE approach, in which voltages are chosen as state variables and load pseudo measurements of low-voltage distribution systems (LDS) are considered to compensate insufficient real-time measurements in MDS. Both rectangular and polar coordinates are studied, and voltage variables of neutrals and zero-injection phases are eliminated to reduce the scale of the DSSE problem. Moreover, in order to enhance the load pseudo measurement accuracy of LDSs, a clustering and partial least square regression-based load estimation model is proposed to leverage the real-time communication ability of smart meters. Case studies on a modified IEEE 123-bus distribution system with actual smart meter data illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid urbanization, electrical infrastructure spreads to raw areas without existing loads. How to achieve accurate long-term load forecasts based on land use plans is a realistic problem. On the other hand, load forecasting (LF) should be extended to high spatial resolutions to guide middle- or low-voltage planning and time domain to consider the impacts of distribution generations and diversified users on multi-period system demands. A data-driven bottom-up spatial and temporal LF approach is proposed in this paper to solve these challenges. Land plots are treated as basic LF resolution to describe available multi-attribute data in smart grids and modern cities. Kernel density estimation and adaptive k-means are adopted to aggregate typical load densities and profiles of different land use types. Stacked auto-encoders are utilized to forecast the unknown plot load quantities. The neighbor plot loads are summed up to obtain the estimated loads of larger areas based on clustered load profiles. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed LF is more applicable than benchmark methods both in accuracy and application potential. The estimated hierarchical spatial and temporal results are of great significance to guide load balancing, power system planning, and user integration in different voltage levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The optimal operation planning (OOP) of electrical distribution systems (EDS) is very sensible to the quality of the short-term load forecasts. Assuming aggregated demands in EDS as univariate non-stationary seasonal time series, and based on historical measurements gathered by smart meters, this paper presents a parsimonious short-term load forecasting method to estimate the expected outcomes of future demands, and the standard deviations of forecast errors. The chosen short-term load forecasting method is an adaptation of the multiplicative autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Seasonal ARIMA models are parsimonious forecasting techniques because they require very few parameters and low computational resources to provide an adequate representation of stochastic time series. Two approaches are used in this paper to estimate the parameters that constitute the proposed multiplicative ARIMA model: a frequentist and a Bayesian approach. Advantages and disadvantages of both methods are compared by simulating a centralized self-healing scheme of a real EDS that uses the forecasts to deploy a robust restoration plan. Results show that the proposed seasonal ARIMA model is a fast, precise, straightforward, and adaptable load forecasting method, suitable for OOP of highly supervised EDS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained widespread attention in recent years because it presents more uncertainty information about the future loads. To further improve the PLF performance, this letter proposes a novel PLF method to leverage existing point load forecasts by modeling the conditional forecast residual. Specifically, the method firstly conducts point forecasting using the historical load data and related factors to obtain the point forecast. Then, this point forecast is used as an additional input feature to describe the conditional distribution of the residual on the point forecast. Finally, the point forecast and conditional distribution of the residual are integrated together to produce the final probabilistic forecast. By comparing different point forecasting and quantile regression models, comprehensive case studies obtained from a publicly available load dataset with multiple zones demonstrate the advantages of our proposed method. This letter also informatively reveals the relationship between point and probabilistic forecast accuracies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distributed renewable energy, particularly photovoltaics (PV), has expanded rapidly over the past decade. Distributed PV is located behind the meter and is, thus, invisible to the retailers and the distribution system operator. This invisible generation, thus, injects additional uncertainty in the net load and makes it harder to forecast. This paper proposes a data-driven probabilistic net load forecasting method specifically designed to handle a high penetration of behind-the-meter (BtM) PV. The capacity of BtM PV is first estimated using a maximal information coefficient based correlation analysis and a grid search. The net load profile is then decomposed into three parts (PV output, actual load, and residual) which are forecast individually. Correlation analysis based on copula theory is conducted on the distributions and dependencies of the forecasting errors to generate a probabilistic net load forecast. Case studies based on ISO New England data demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms other approaches, particularly when the penetration of BtM PV is high. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Scale evolution pattern recognition of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and charging demand modeling are essential for various involved sectors to promote PEV proliferation and integration into power systems. Considering that the market penetration development of PEVs will drive the evolution of charging demand, an integrated dynamic method based on an agent-based modeling technology is proposed in this paper by combining scale evolution model with charging demand model to jointly detect the possible PEVs evolution patterns and long-term charging demand profiles. Heterogeneous consumers presenting different preferences in making vehicle purchase decisions and the interactions with other consumers via social dynamics are taken into consideration in the scale evolution model. After obtain the scale of PEVs by aggregating individual consumer agents purchase behavior, the driving patterns, charging behavior habits, and charging strategies are systematically incorporated into the charging demand model. Case studies demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed methodology by taking an urban area as an example. Furthermore, the factors that affect the market evolution of PEVs and the charging demand are also simulated and analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a data-driven affinely adjustable distributionally robust method for unit commitment considering uncertain load and renewable generation forecasting errors. The proposed formulation minimizes expected total operation costs, including the costs of generation, reserve, wind curtailment, and load shedding, while guaranteeing the system security. Without any presumption about the probability distribution of the uncertainties, the proposed method constructs an ambiguity set of distributions using historical data and immunizes the operation strategies against the worst case distribution in the ambiguity set. The more historical data is available, the smaller the ambiguity set is and the less conservative the solution is. The formulation is finally cast into a mixed integer linear programming whose scale remains unchanged as the amount of historical data increases. Numerical results and Monte Carlo simulations on the 118- and 1888-bus systems demonstrate the favorable features of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Load modelling plays a key role in assessing peak load reduction and has attracted renewed interest recently due to increasing diversity and uncertainty in load characteristic resulted by emergence of new types of loads and more penetrations of distributed renewable generations onto electricity networks. This paper presents a methodology for the development of a static load model based load characteristic profile in medium voltage distribution networks from year-long field measurements. High-resolution load monitoring devices with the 1 s sampling rate installed at 60 primary substations in the U.K. distribution network are used to collect the data for the purpose of load modelling. Load models at these 60 substations comprising domestic, commercial/industrial, and mixed-type load demand are presented in the paper together with relevant model parameters. Field trials (which involve triggering transformer taps to initiate voltage changes) were performed throughout the year on 15 selected substations aimed at load profile validation. The developed load profiles take into account seasonal, weekly, and daily variations of P–V and Q–V characteristics. Representative 24 h (0.5 h) load matrices are developed for all 60 substations and provide an insight into the operational flexibility and network resilience to voltage variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most electricity spot price series exhibit price spikes. These extreme observations may significantly impact the obtained model estimates and hence reduce efficiency of the employed predictive algorithms. For markets with only positive prices, the logarithmic transform is the single most commonly used technique to reduce spike severity and consequently stabilize the variance. However, for datasets with very close to zero (like the Spanish) or negative (like the German) prices the log-transform is not feasible. What reasonable choices do we have then? To address this issue, we evaluate 16 variance stabilizing transformations within a comprehensive forecasting study involving two model classes (regression models, neural networks) and 12 datasets from diverse power markets. We show that the probability integral transform combined with the standard Gaussian distribution yields the best approach, significantly better than many of the considered alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demand response (DR) is a versatile tool capable of providing sophisticated solutions and competitive services. Currently, the utilities pursue such services, as the reliability improvement, by continuous infrastructure investment and maintenance. In many cases, DR can provide reliability benefits, as it allows distribution network operators to reshape the load profile when a contingency is imminent. The quantification of the DR benefits is necessary to understand its economic and financial impact on the power sector. Methodologies used in risk management can be adapted for this purpose. In this paper, we propose a method to build a detailed reliability model, to assess the expected reliability indices, and to manage the financial risk of the reliability performance by DR in distribution networks subject to performance-based regulation. The outcome of the proposed method is the quantification of the relation between the risk and return of DR portfolios, in terms of conditional value-at-risk and ex-pected return, respectively. The results demonstrate that the method can be used as a decision support system for optimal DR allocation to trade off efficiently between the reliability performance risk and the expected return. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

A basic principle of electricity market design is that cost allocation should follow cost causation as closely as possible. As renewable resources play a larger role in electricity generation, system operators have become increasingly concerned about costs related to variability in net load. While variable generation resources have attracted a great deal of attention along these lines, load is a larger source of variability in most systems. This paper introduces a Shapley value framework to assess the total system cost attributable to electricity market participants that either exacerbate or alleviate net load variability. Furthermore, this paper investigates the extent to which these costs are adequately reflected in wholesale market prices. Numerical tests indicate that the cost of variability on the hourly time scale is in most cases internalized by market-integrated generators and buyers, mitigating concerns that variability imposes a socialized cost from ramping or cycling of thermal generators. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

An outage detection framework for power distribution networks is proposed. Given the tree structure of a distribution system, a detection method is developed combining the use of real-time power flow measurements on the edges of the tree with load forecasts at the nodes of the tree. The maximum likelihood detection decision for an arbitrary number of outages is shown to be efficiently computable due to decoupling across local areas determined by the sensor locations. To minimize the maximum missed detection probability, the optimal sensor placement is efficiently computed as well. Finally, a set of case studies is conducted using feeder data from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratories. It is shown that $10\%$ mean detection error probability can be achieved by a sensor density of $30\%$ for a typical feeder with the proposed optimal sensor placement and outage detection methods. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The widespread penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) will cause an increase in energy demand. To achieve an effective demand response approach, the participation of EV users is a crucial factor. Nevertheless, the discharging price found in the literature is generally set in accordance with the spot electricity price. A fair pricing strategy is thus desirable to motivate EV users to regulate their charging behavior for less bill payment, and at the same time to achieve load regulation as well as benefit for power companies. The charging and discharging prices should be cohesively equilibrated to achieve the task. This paper presents a new V2G (Vehicle-to-Grid) pricing policy by incorporating the system load condition, maximum power limit, and price rate for user load in a fair manner. The price setting follows a hierarchical optimization procedure between the operator and end users with the aim to maximize operator's profit and balance end users’ bill and comfort level. The optimization for the operator is achieved via genetic algorithm whereas the energy management of each user is decomposed as a single power optimization problem. Simulation results have confirmed the benefit of liberating the discharging price from the user load tariff and have verified the effectiveness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study develops and compares several networked control and estimation algorithms to manipulate the power consumption of a population of residential thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) to fulfill PJM frequency regulation requests given an imperfect communication network and modeling error. The algorithms rely on a model of the plant to reduce the effects of communication delays, and include a stochastic, predictive controller and two Kalman filter-based state estimation techniques. The first estimator uses a set of independent Kalman filters that run in parallel, and the second incorporates individual TCL models that rely on identified thermal parameters. We use simulations to examine 1) the algorithms’ ability to adequately provide frequency regulation under a range of delay severities, and 2) the effect of increased modeling error. We find that both estimator–controller combinations provide acceptable frequency regulation with average delays of 20 s and minor modeling error. When we increase the modeling error by using a higher order model to represent the TCLs within the plant, the first estimator provides acceptable frequency regulation, whereas the second estimator provides poor frequency regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Active research activity in power systems areas has focused on developing computational methods to solve load flow equations where a key question is the maximum number of solutions. Although several upper bounds exist, recent studies have hinted that much sharper upper bounds that depend on the topology of underlying power networks may exist. This paper provides a significant refinement of these observations. We also develop a geometric construction called adjacency polytope that accurately captures the topology of a power network and is immensely useful in the computation of the solution bound. Finally, we highlight the significant implications of the development of such solution bounds in numerically solving load flow equations. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

For large power systems with huge proportions of industrial loads, dynamic var sources (DVSs) such as STATCOMs and generators provide significant protection against short-term voltage instability. Simultaneously optimizing the locations and capacities of STATCOMs and the settings for adjustment coefficients of generator excitation systems is a goal of this paper; thus, we formulate a multi-objective, mixed-integer dynamic optimization (MOMIDO) model subject to short-term voltage security and rotor-angle stability under multiple contingencies. We also present a reduced convex relaxation (RCR) method to handle STATCOM locations (which are integer variables) and to avoid their combinatorial explosion, and convert the MOMIDO model into a multi-objective nonlinear programming problem via Radau collocation. To obtain complete Pareto optimal solutions for the MOMIDO model, we propose a reduced wide normalized normal constraint (RWNNC) method by enlarging the Utopia plane so that the Pareto optimal solutions are covered completely by its vertical projection, while pruning redundant sections on the Utopia plane to reduce the amount of calculations. Moreover, the simulation results on an IEEE standard 39-bus system and a real provincial power system demonstrate that the proposed method can handle integer variables effectively and obtain complete Pareto optimal solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The ability to manage loads can play a significant role in the future operation and planning of electricity networks. One way of unlocking this source of flexibility without directly involving thousands or millions of customers is to exploit the positive correlation between supplied voltage and demand, i.e., voltage-led load management. Distribution network operators, in particular, could achieve this by adequately controlling voltage regulation devices. Nonetheless, to quantify this it is key to understand the extent to which voltages can be changed (reduced) while considering the dependencies across different voltage levels. A methodology is proposed here to quantify the aggregated demand reduction unlocked by controlling primary substations considering the voltage interactions and constraints throughout the whole distribution network. Given the complexity and dimensions, the influence of the upstream network on primary substations and the effects on low voltage customers are analyzed separately whilst maintaining their dependencies. The methodology, developed within the largest UK load management trial, is applied to real 132 to 0.4 kV distribution networks adopting realistic load models. Results demonstrate not only the significance of the scheme as a source of flexibility but, crucially, that the interactions and constraints across voltage levels are key in its adequate time-varying quantification. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper presents a new method to model induction machines (IMs) in multiphase load-flow calculations. Fast convergence of the load-flow solution is achieved using an iterative Newton method in the modified-augmented-nodal-analysis formulation. The multiphase modeling approach allows accounting for unbalanced networks. The IM is modeled using either a constraint of electrical power input, mechanical power, or mechanical torque output. The slip of the IM becomes a load-flow variable computed iteratively while the reactive power is not fixed. In addition, the initialization of time-domain simulations using load-flow solution in the computation of electromagnetic transients is demonstrated using balanced and unbalanced network cases. It is shown that a seamless transition between load-flow and time-domain average powers is obtained when the slip of the IM is formulated as a variable in load-flow and its reactive power is not fixed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In power systems today, considerable developments are being made in the energy transition from centralized fossil fuels to renewable distributed generation (DG) sources. However, this ongoing progress has presented several challenges to the operation and planning of distribution systems due to the variability of intermittent renewable generation. Demand response (DR) is widely regarded as a feasible tool to provide a seamless transition by altering the load profiles according to the intermittent generation profile. However, the resultant volatile power flows can be taxing for network capacity. This paper offers a framework from the distribution system operator's perspective for the optimal utilization of DR between DG curtailment mitigation and network management. The application of the developed framework to a generic Finnish distribution system demonstrates that the benefits of DR should be envisioned for network management as long as the wind curtailment rate is below a certain level. This means that, beyond the threshold energy curtailment rate, the distribution system operator would be more economically efficient by making network reinforcements. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper proposes a unified load flow (LF) model for AC–DC hybrid distribution systems (DSs). The proposed model can be applied in hybrid DSs with mixed configurations for AC/DC buses and AC/DC lines. A new classification of DS buses is also introduced for LF analysis. A set of generic LF equations has been derived based on comprehensive analysis of the possible AC–DC hybrid system configurations. Three binary matrices, which are used as a means of describing the configuration of the AC and DC buses and lines, have been employed in the construction of the unified power equations. These matrices enable a single configuration at a time to be activated in the power equations. The proposed LF model is generic and can be used for both grid-connected and isolated hybrid DSs. The new model has been tested using several case studies of hybrid DSs that include different operational modes for the AC and DC distributed generators. As a means of evaluating the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model, the LF solution was compared to the solution produced by PSCAD/EMTDC. A comparison of the results reveals the efficacy of the proposed model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The feasible equilibria of operation of distribution-level power system models interfaced with solid-state transformers (SST) are analyzed and presented through a set of analytical relationships. The active and reactive power balances in the SST are realized through control of power electronic converters with appropriate choices for voltage and current setpoints. These setpoints parameterize the nonlinear model of the SST. Therefore, choosing them appropriately in sync with the generation and load profiles in the system is critical for maintaining a feasible equilibrium. These equilibrium sets are derived by first considering a fundamental physics-based model of a single-SST system, and thereafter, by extending them to systems with multiple SSTs connected to a radial distribution feeder. Power sharing methods are developed by which multiple SSTs can share a given change in load by generating an appropriate set of feasible setpoints for their input stage rectifiers. A control architecture is proposed for executing these load-sharing methods for both instantaneous and predictive load commands. The algorithms are verified by simulations on a representative distribution test system with nine SSTs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to maintain power system security at the appropriate level and low cost, it is essential to accurately assess steady-state stability limits and power flow feasibility boundaries, i.e., power system marginal states (MS). This paper is devoted to researching the closest MS models in the p-norms. The theoretical studies have revealed that the model of the closest MS in the weighted max-norm, which considers errors of the power change forecast by means of the weighted Euclidean norm, corresponds most closely to requirements of the system operator (SO) for an assessment of the steady-state stability reserve and for the preventive control. At the same time the model of the closest MS in the one-norm best satisfies SO requirements for the corrective and emergency control, and for moving a system state into the power flow feasibility region. This model gives a control action to a critical bus, adding others only in the case of a dosage lack. As a result minimum number of buses will be affected, and minimum loads will be shed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To help the integration of various distributed energy resources (DERs), this paper proposes a transactive approach to the optimal scheduling for prosumers in coupled energy systems. DERs are coordinately operated in the form of a virtual power plant (VPP), which actively participates in the day-ahead and real-time electricity market, as well as the wholesale gas market. In the day-ahead electricity and wholesale gas markets, a VPP aims to maximize expected profits by determining the unit commitments and hourly scheduling of DERs. In the real-time balancing market, a VPP adjusts DER schedules to minimize imbalance costs. In this paper, we address the energy conversions between electric power and gas loads and investigate the interacting operations of gas and power systems. Our simulation results show that hierarchical, coordinated power and gas scheduling can identify more accurate operation plans for coupled transactive energy systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]