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This paper presents a probabilistic approach in the modeling of stand-alone microgrids to predict their operational adequacy performance considering uncertainty of energy storage system (ESS), photovoltaic system (PVS) and conventional generator (CG). Instead of using the daily or hourly time step, operating period a minutely time step is considered to incorporate the effect of fast ramp up/down of system components on microgrid operating adequacy through expected energy not supplied (EENS) and expected energy not used (EENU), due to load and resource variations. A time varying state of charge (SOC) model is proposed to determine power output of an ESS in reliability modeling. The reliability of a PVS is modeled in detail based on the total cross-tied configuration (TCTC) of photovoltaic (PV) cells and arrays. The proposed technique and indices will be useful for system planners to select the type and size of microgrid systems that contain alternative energy sources and storage. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In a power system with high wind power penetration, reliability-based reserve expansion is a major problem of system planning and operation due to the uncertainty and fast fluctuation of wind speeds. This paper studied the impact of high wind power penetration on the system reserve and reliability from long-term planning point of view utilizing universal generating function (UGF) methods. The reliability models of wind farms and conventional generators are represented as the corresponding UGFs, and the special operators for these UGFs are defined to evaluate the customer and the system reliabilities. The effect of transmission network on customer reliabilities is also considered in the system UGF. The power output models of wind turbine generators in a wind farm considering wind speed correlation and un-correlation are developed, respectively. A reliability-based reserve expansion method is proposed to determine the conventional reserve required for power systems with high wind power penetration. The IEEE-RTS has been modified to illustrate the applications of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]