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This paper proposes the use of two indicators of the predictability of the load series along with an accuracy value such as mean average percentage error as standard measures of load forecasting performance. Over the last 10 years, there has been a significant increase in load forecasting models proposed in engineering journals. Most of these models provide a description of the inner design of the model, the results from applying this model to a specific data base and the conclusions drawn from this application. However, a single accuracy value may not be sufficient to describe the performance of the model when applied to other data bases. The aim of this paper is to provide researchers with a tool that is able to assess the predictability of a load series and, therefore, contextualize the forecasting accuracy reported. Nine different data bases from the U.S. have been used; all of them include hourly load and temperature data. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper proposes using phasor measurement unit (PMU) data to trigger one-shot control in response to loss of synchronism detection. Decision trees (DTs) are trained to associate voltage magnitude and angle measurements with loss of synchronism. Different approaches to the DT construction process are illustrated in an early section of the paper by restricting the input vector to only two elements. Response-based control is obtained by triggering one-shot control the first time the DT classifies measurements as “Unstable”. The same combination of one-shot controls is applied to any event the first time the DT outputs “Unstable”. The method is demonstrated on a 176-bus reduced-order model of the western U.S. interconnection. An effective one-shot control consists of a combination of fast power changes on four buses. This control is similar to 500-MW fast power increases on two HVDC interties and it reduces angle differences in the AC network. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper evaluates ERCOT's existing annual Black Start service selection analysis and subsequently presents novel selection procedures. ERCOT procures Black Start resources annually through a competitive process. It selects and awards contracts to qualifying resources after completing a Black Start unit selection analysis, which selects a group of Black Start resources that meet a set of system selection criteria consisting of system reliability and minimum cost parameters. A current analysis methodology exists, but due to its inherent limitations, it is very labor intensive. Further analysis methodology development is performed to streamline the selection process, enable additional functions, reduce the manual intervention of personnel, and overall to improve the selection analysis. This paper analyzes the current Black Start automatic program analysis, and proposes new methodologies, programming improvements, and enhanced user ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is the second of a two-part paper and describes the application of a multiperiod generalized network flow model that is used to analyze the economic efficiencies of the energy movements from the coal and natural gas suppliers to the electric load centers, providing a simulation tool that captures dynamics of and interdependencies between the coal, natural gas, and electricity networks. The modeling approach, mathematical formulation, and modeling assumptions are presented in part I. This sequel presents and discusses numerical results to illustrate the application of the model. The model enables public and private decision makers to carry out comprehensive analyses of a wide range of issues related to the energy sector, such as strategic planning, economic impact assessment, and different regulatory regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is the first of a two-part paper presenting a multiperiod generalized network flow model of the integrated energy system in the United States. Part I describes the modeling approach used to evaluate the economic efficiencies of the systemwide energy flows, from the coal and natural gas suppliers to the electric load centers. Under the proposed problem formulation, fuel supply and electricity demand nodes are connected via a transportation network, and the model is solved for the most efficient allocation of quantities and corresponding prices. The methodology includes physical, economic, and environmental aspects that characterize the different networks. Part II of this paper provides numerical results that demonstrate the application of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

FERC Order 755 requires each RTO/ISO to use market-based mechanisms to select and compensate frequency regulation resources based on a two-part payment methodology, i.e., a capacity payment to keep the capacity in reserve and a performance payment to reflect the amount of work each resource performs in real-time in response to the system operator's dispatch signal. This paper discusses how MISO enhanced its market rules to implement a market-based regulation performance payment. The market enhancement includes four key areas: quantifying the movement of regulation, modifications to the market clearing processes, performance accuracy measurement, and performance-based two-part regulation compensation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Utilities have long struggled with establishing re- source planning criteria that ensure adequate resources to meet loads at low cost. Historically, many utilities used planning reserve margin criteria. The onset of deregulation brought about a paradigm shift in which it was expected that markets would provide a more efficient mechanism for maintaining resource sufficiency in the course of system demand growth. Major power shortages in the Midwest and California in the wake of deregulation led to a reexamination by most regions of the need for centralized resource planning and integrated resource plans. Reserve margin techniques continue to be used by many resource planners to ensure resource adequacy. Simulation-based probabilistic assessments can provide a more direct measure of adequacy but are quite intensive computationally and therefore only allow exploring a limited number of scenarios. In this paper, we suggest a simple analytical probabilistic approach to maintaining resource adequacy and calculating peak load carrying capability of incremental generating units. The methodology targets a level of system adequacy, rather than a specified reserve margin, under system expansion. It provides. a powerful technique for simply calculating probability-based load carrying capability of resource additions without iteratively running computationally intensive stochastic computer models. The technique also provides a simple but effective method for developing portfolios of resources with comparable contributions to system adequacy. The latter may be employed in capacity expansion algorithms as a simpler, more efficient, and more accurate method of determining least-cost resource additions than targeting planning reserve margins. Applications of these techniques to the IEEE Reliability Test System illustrate the methods and verify the results with a stochastic model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]