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Due to the diversity of power consumption patterns, the false positive rate (FPR) of data-driven electricity theft detection (ETD) methods is too high to meet practical needs, which severely restricts the engineering application of data-based methods. To reduce FPR of ETD methods based on advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), a deep neural network with low FPR (LFPR-DNN) is proposed in this paper. First, a deep model is constructed based on one-dimensional convolution and residual network, which can automatically extract features from consumption data. Then, a two-stage training scheme is used to train the network. In the first stage, the conventional gradient descent algorithm is used to update the network weights. To minimize the impact of data imbalance on detection performance, focal loss is used. Besides, grid search is used to optimize the hyper-parameters of the model. In the second stage, with FPR as the optimization objective, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to train the network. Finally, the proposed LFPR-DNN is verified by using the open Irish data set. Compared to other state-of-the-art classifiers, LFPR-DNN has the lowest FPR with 0.29% and the highest AUC with 99.42%. The FPR is reduced by an order of magnitude, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to reduce the dependence on accumulated experience that is difficult to replicate for the human dispatchers to make power generation scheduling more automatically, quickly, and intelligently, higher requirements are placed on the level of the auxiliary decision-making system. In this paper, a short-term scheduling problem was treated as a regression task that concentrates on how to learn a reliable statistic model that concludes the intrinsic logic of the dispatching policy from extensive historical dispatching experience. In this way, since Kullback-Leibler distance can better measure the distance between two distributions, we designed a novel GAN-based learning method for the scheduling task. Also, we proposed a feasible framework that combines the stage of learning, decision-making, and deployment to support the practical implementation of the proposed algorithm. In the experiment, a real case that takes short-term scheduling tasks on a regional large-scale power system is considered in our experiments. As a result, the comparison of several methods further shows the superiority of the proposed GAN-based method under our implementations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a new deep learning (DL) based model-free robust method for bulk system on-line load restoration with high penetration of wind power. Inspired by the iterative calculation of the two-stage robust load restoration model, the deep neural network (DNN) and deep convolutional neural network (CNN) are respectively designed to find the worst-case system condition of a load pickup decision and evaluate the corresponding security. In order to find the optimal result within a limited number of checks, a load pickup checklist generation (LPCG) algorithm is developed to ensure the optimality. Then, the fast robust load restoration strategy acquisition is achieved based on the designed one-line strategy generation (OSG) algorithm. The proposed method finds the optimal result in a model-free way, holds the robustness to handle uncertainties, and provides real-time computation. It can completely replace conventional robust optimization and supports on-line robust load restoration which better satisfies the changeable restoration process. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated using the IEEE 30-bus system and the IEEE 118-bus system, showing high computational efficiency and considerable accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a holistic framework of data-driven distributionally robust joint chance constrained economic dispatch (ED) optimization, which seamlessly incorporates deep learning-based optimization for effective utilization of renewable energy in power systems. By leveraging a deep generative adversarial network (GAN), an f-divergence-based ambiguity set of wind power distributions is constructed as a ball centered around the probability distribution induced by a generator neural network. In particular, the GAN is well suited for capturing complicated spatial and temporal correlations of wind power. Based upon this ambiguity set, a distributionally robust joint chance constrained ED model is developed to hedge against distributional uncertainty present in multiple constraints, without assuming a perfectly known probability distribution. The proposed deep learning based ED optimization framework greatly mitigates the conservatism inflicting on distributionally robust individual chance constrained optimization. Theoretical a priori bound on the required number of synthetic wind power data generated by GAN is explicitly derived for the multi-period ED problem to guarantee a predefined risk level. The effectiveness and scalability of the proposed approach are demonstrated in the six-bus and IEEE 118-bus systems by comparing with the state-of-the-art methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The security-constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF) is fundamental in power systems and connects the automatic primary response (APR) of synchronized generators with the short-term schedule. Every day, the SCOPF problem is repeatedly solved for various inputs to determine robust schedules given a set of contingencies. Unfortunately, the modeling of APR within the SCOPF problem results in complex large-scale mixed-integer programs, which are hard to solve. To address this challenge, leveraging the wealth of available historical data, this paper proposes a novel approach that combines deep learning and robust optimization techniques. Unlike recent machine-learning applications where the aim is to mitigate the computational burden of exact solvers, the proposed method predicts directly the SCOPF implementable solution. Feasibility is enforced in two steps. First, during training, a Lagrangian dual method penalizes violations of physical and operations constraints, which are iteratively added as necessary to the machine-learning model by a Column-and-Constraint-Generation Algorithm (CCGA). Second, another different CCGA restores feasibility by finding the closest feasible solution to the prediction. Experiments on large test cases show that the method results in significant time reduction for obtaining feasible solutions with an optimality gap below 0.1%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increased penetration of wind power introduces more operational changes of critical corridors and the traditional time-consuming transient stability constrained total transfer capability (TTC) operational planning is unable to meet the real-time monitoring need. This paper develops a more computationally efficient approach to address that challenge via the analytical deep learning-based surrogate model. The key idea is to resort to deep learning for developing a computationally cheap surrogate model to replace the original time-consuming differential-algebraic constraints related to TTC. However, the deep learning-based surrogate model introduces implicit rules that are difficult to handle in the optimization process. To this end, we derive the Jacobian and Hessian matrices of the implicit surrogate models and finally transfer them into an analytical formulation that can be easily solved by the interior point method. Surrogate modeling and problem reformulation allow us to achieve significantly improved computational efficiency and the yielded solutions can be used for operational planning. Numerical results carried out on the modified IEEE 39-bus and 68-bus systems demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in dealing with complicated TTC constraints while balancing the computational efficiency and accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demand-side management (DSM) increases the complexity of forecasting environment, which makes traditional forecasting methods difficult to meet the firm's need for predictive accuracy. Since deep learning can comprehensively consider various factors to improve prediction results, this paper improves the deep belief network from three aspects of input data, model and performance, and uses it to solve the short-term load forecasting problem in DSM. In the data optimization stage, the Hankel matrix is constructed to increase the input weight of DSM data, and the gray relational analysis is used to select strongly correlated data from the data set. In the model optimization stage, the Gauss-Bernoulli restricted Boltzmann machine is used as the first restricted Boltzmann machine of the deep network to convert the continuity feature of input data into binomial distribution feature. In the performance optimization stage, a pre-training method combining error constraint and unsupervised learning is proposed to provide good initial parameters, and the global fine-tuning of network parameters is realized based on the genetic algorithm. Based on the actual data of Tianjin Power Grid in China, the experimental results show that the proposed method is superior to other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the current competition framework governing the electricity sector, complex dependencies exist between electrical and market data, which complicates the decision-making procedure of energy actors. These must indeed operate within a complex, uncertain environment, and consequently need to rely on accurate multivariate, multi-step ahead probabilistic predictions. This paper aims to take advantage of recent breakthroughs in deep learning, while exploiting the structure of the problem to design prediction tools with tailored architectural alterations that improve their performance. The method can provide prediction intervals and densities, but is here extended with the objective to generate predictive scenarios. It is achieved by sampling the predicted multivariate distribution with a copula-based strategy so as to embody both temporal information and cross-variable dependencies. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is emphasized and compared with several other architectures in terms of both statistical performance and impact on the quality of decisions optimized within a dedicated stochastic optimization tool of an electricity retailer participating in short-term electricity markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]