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Electricity demand forecasts are needed for decisions regarding generation dispatch for lead times as short as just a few minutes. Imbalance between generation and demand causes deviation of the system frequency from its target, which in Great Britain is 50 Hz. This, in turn, causes a change in demand, due largely to motor loads. For Great Britain, the change is estimated to be 2.5% of demand per 1 Hz of frequency deviation from its target. This can be used to calculate the demand that would have occurred if frequency had been at 50 Hz. Modeling and forecasting the resulting frequency-corrected demand provides a better basis for dispatching generation. This paper evaluates methods for forecasting frequency-corrected demand up to 10 min ahead. We introduce an exponential smoothing model that, like the system operator's proposed Kalman filter approach, jointly models frequency and demand. We also evaluate a set of univariate methods applied directly to the series of frequency-corrected demand. These methods have not previously been considered for lead times less than 10 min. In our empirical analysis, the best results were produced by a seasonal exponential smoothing method applied directly to the series of frequency-corrected demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electricity industry is significantly affected by weather conditions both in terms of the operation of the network infrastructure and electricity consumption. Following privatization and deregulation, the electricity industry in the U.K. has become fragmented and central planning has largely disappeared. In order to maximize profits, the margin of supply has decreased and the network is being run closer to capacity in certain areas. Careful planning is required to manage future electricity demand within the framework of this leaner electricity network. There is evidence that the climate in the U.K. is changing with a possible 3°C average annual temperature increase by 2080. This paper investigates the impact of weather variables on monthly electricity demand in England and Wales. A multiple regression model is developed to forecast monthly electricity demand based on weather variables, gross domestic product, and population growth. The average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the worst model is approximately 2.60% in fitting the monthly electricity demand from 1989 to 1995 and approximately 2.69% in the forecasting over the period 1996 to 2003. This error may reflect the nonlinear dependence of demand on temperature at the hot and cold temperature extremes; however, the inclusion of degree days, enthalpy latent days, and relative humidity in the model improves the demand forecast during the summer months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous methods have been proposed for forecasting load for normal days. Modeling of anomalous load, however, has often been ignored in the research literature. Occurring on special days, such as public holidays, anomalous load conditions pose considerable modeling challenges due to their infrequent occurrence and significant deviation from normal load. To overcome these limitations, we adopt a rule-based approach, which allows incorporation of prior expert knowledge of load profiles into the statistical model. We use triple seasonal Holt-Winters-Taylor (HWT) exponential smoothing, triple seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA), artificial neural networks (ANNs), and triple seasonal intraweek singular value decomposition (SVD) based exponential smoothing. These methods have been shown to be competitive for modeling load for normal days. The methodological contribution of this paper is to demonstrate how these methods can be adapted to model load for special days, when used in conjunction with a rule-based approach. The proposed rule-based method is able to model normal and anomalous load in a unified framework. Using nine years of half-hourly load for Great Britain, we evaluate point forecasts, for lead times from one half-hour up to a day ahead. A combination of two rule-based methods generated the most accurate forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We investigate the performance of two hybrid forecasting models to predict the next-day base load electricity prices on the APX power exchange for Great Britain. Hybrid models have often been advocated as a synthetic method for forecasting, but it is an open question how well they perform at the day-ahead stage. A conventional hybrid approach combines a fundamental model, formulated with supply stack modeling, with an econometric model using data on price drivers. We extend this model to one based upon logistic smooth transition regression, which represents a regime-switching for periods of structural change. Empirical results for out-of-sample forecasting using both hybrid approaches are discussed and compared to non-hybrid time series forecasting methods. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]