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The online retail market shows a sharp increase in traffic during holiday sales. The ability to distinguish customers who will likely purchase is critical for provisioning traffic and for providing cost-effective promotions. This paper uniquely studies the browsing and purchasing behaviors of online shoppers during a yearly sale event in China, the world’s largest online marketplace. Based on 31 million action logs gathered from wide residential areas, we characterize the steps leading to purchases and determine their precursors. We investigate the effect of time (e.g., date, time of date), environment (e.g., platform, viewed category), and action (e.g., session time, clicks, sequence) on purchases. Action cues from shopping behaviors can be used for early detection. While most shoppers start with strong intentions to purchase, yet the moment of ordering comes rather impulsively within 30 seconds to several minutes of browsing. The predictive accuracy reaches as a high AUC of 0.924. The findings in this paper provide an understanding of traffic during mega sale events that can help online shops plan and provide a better user experience for upcoming shopping festivals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stationless bike-sharing systems such as Mobike are currently becoming extremely popular in China as well as some other big cities in the world. Compared to traditional bicycle-sharing systems, stationless bike-sharing systems do not need bike stations. Users can rent and return bikes at arbitrary locations through an App installed on their smart phones. Such a convenient and flexible bike-sharing mode greatly solves the last mile issue of the commuters, and better meets their real bike usage demand. However, it also poses new challenges for operators to manage the system. The first primary challenge is how to accurately estimate the real bike usage demand in different areas of a city and in different time intervals, which is crucial for the system planning and operation. This paper for the first time proposes a data driven approach for bike usage demand inference in stationless bike-sharing systems. The idea is that we first estimate the demands in some regions and time intervals from a small number of observed bike check-out/in data directly, and then use them as seeds to infer the region-level bike usage demands of an entire city. Specifically, we formulate this problem as a matrix completion task by modeling the bike usage demand as a matrix whose two dimensions are time intervals of a day and regions of a city, respectively. With the observation that POI distribution of a region is an important indicator to bike demand, we propose to utilize inductive matrix factorization by considering POIs as side information. As the bike usage data are highly correlated in both spatial and temporal dimensions, we also incorporate the spatial-temporal correlations as well as the balanced bike usage constraint into a joint optimization framework. We evaluate the proposed model on a large Mobike trip dataset collected from Beijing, and the experimental results show its superior performance by comparison with various baseline methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]