1. Asymptotically Optimal Change Point Detection for Composite Hypothesis in State Space Models
- Author
-
Cheng-Der Fuh
- Subjects
Markov chain ,Probability (math.PR) ,Markov process ,020206 networking & telecommunications ,02 engineering and technology ,Library and Information Sciences ,Random walk ,Computer Science Applications ,symbols.namesake ,Distribution (mathematics) ,Asymptotically optimal algorithm ,Stopping time ,FOS: Mathematics ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,symbols ,Applied mathematics ,State space ,Random variable ,Mathematics - Probability ,Information Systems ,Mathematics - Abstract
This paper investigates change point detection in state space models, in which the pre-change distribution $f^{\theta_0}$ is given, while the poster distribution $f^{\theta}$ after change is unknown. The problem is to raise an alarm as soon as possible after the distribution changes from $f^{\theta_0}$ to $f^{\theta}$, under a restriction on the false alarms. We investigate theoretical properties of a weighted Shiryayev-Roberts-Pollak (SRP) change point detection rule in state space models. By making use of a Markov chain representation for the likelihood function, exponential embedding of the induced Markovian transition operator, nonlinear Markov renewal theory, and sequential hypothesis testing theory for Markov random walks, we show that the weighted SRP procedure is second-order asymptotically optimal. To this end, we derive an asymptotic approximation for the expected stopping time of such a stopping scheme when the change time $\omega = 1$. To illustrate our method we apply the results to two types of state space models: general state Markov chains and linear state space models., Comment: 17 pages. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1801.04756 by other authors
- Published
- 2021