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The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) typically provides advice on fishing opportunities on a stock-by-stock basis. Nevertheless, levels of total allowable catch (TAC) are sometimes set for a collection of stocks and species (i.e. a common TAC). An explicit expectation of these is that landings will scale with ICES advice, especially when ICES advice is used to calculate the common TAC. This expectation is tested for skates and rays in the Northeast Atlantic, spanning 26 stocks, 8 species, and 3 ecoregions. Using ICES landings and ICES advice data from 2016 to 2022, we show that landings of several stocks and species have overshot their respective ICES advice, whereas others have undershot. Specifically, some stocks of blonde ray (Raja brachyura) in North Sea and Celtic Seas ecoregions are being landed at a rate that often exceeds double its ICES advice. By collating species based on their ICES assessment category and life-history traits, we find that those considered data-poor and potentially most vulnerable to fishing are consistently landed at higher-than-expected rates in the Celtic Seas. This study questions the appropriateness of a common TAC for skates and rays and calls for shifts towards the use of single-stock catch allocations and the application of advanced stock assessment methodologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adoption of the Precautionary Approach requires providing advice that is robust to uncertainty. Therefore, when conducting stock assessment alternative, model structures and data sets are commonly considered. The primary diagnostics used to compare models are to examine residuals patterns to check goodness-of-fit and to conduct retrospective analysis to check the stability of estimates. However, residual patterns can be removed by adding more parameters than justified by the data, and retrospective patterns removed by ignoring the data. Therefore, neither alone can be used for validation, which requires assessing whether it is plausible that a system identical to the model generated the data. Therefore, we use hindcasting to estimate prediction skill, a measure of the accuracy of a predicted value unknown by the model relative to its observed value, to explore model misspecification and data conflicts. We compare alternative model structures based on integrated statistical and Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models using, as an example, Indian Ocean yellowfin tuna. Validation is not a binary process (i.e. pass or fail) but a continuum; therefore, we discuss the use of prediction skill to identify alternative hypotheses, weight ensemble models and agree on reference sets of operating models when conducting Management Strategy Evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sidney J. Holt (1926–2019) was more than a founding father of quantitative fisheries science, and the man who "helped save the great whales." His accomplishments, over a career spanning seven decades, run deeper: he was a champion of reductionism (i.e. able to identify the factors essential for management) and a systemic thinker who inspired scientists to think critically about marine conservation and management. This article draws on first-hand experiences with Sidney over the last 15 years, when he regularly collaborated with scholars of the ICES Working Group on the History of Fish and Fisheries and the Oceans Past Initiative. Four main themes emerged from our reflections on Sidney's life and legacy, which constitute ongoing scientific challenges: (1) the suitability of maximum sustainable yield as a target reference point for fisheries management; (2) the future of marine mammal conservation; (3) successful implementation of ecosystem-based marine management; and (4) the value of historical perspectives for conservation and management. We consider Sidney's work across these themes, in which he readily collaborated, focused on evidence-based solutions, and, where evidence was lacking, he advocated for the "precautionary principle." We posit there is much that we, and future generations of scientists, can learn from his example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Declines in predatory fish in combination with the impact of climate change and eutrophication have caused planktivores, including three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus), to increase dramatically in parts of the Baltic Sea. Resulting impacts of stickleback on coastal and offshore foodwebs have been observed, highlighting the need for increased knowledge on its population characteristics. In this article, we quantify abundance, biomass, size structure, and spatial distribution of stickleback using data from the Swedish and Finnish parts of the Baltic International Acoustic Survey (BIAS) during 2001–2014. Two alternative methods for biomass estimation suggest an increase in biomass of stickleback in the Baltic Proper, stable or increasing mean size over time, and larger individuals toward the north. The highest abundance was found in the central parts of the Baltic Proper and Bothnian Sea. The proportion of stickleback biomass in the total planktivore biomass increased from 4 to 10% in the Baltic Proper and averaged 6% of the total planktivore biomass in the Bothnian Sea. In some years, however, stickleback biomass has ranged from half to almost twice that of sprat (Sprattus sprattus) in both basins. Given the recent population expansion of stickleback and its potential role in the ecosystem, we recommend that stickleback should be considered in future monitoring programmes and in fisheries and environmental management of the Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pretty good yield (PGY) is a sustainable fish yield corresponding to obtaining no less than a specified large percentage of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). We investigated 19 European fish stocks to test the hypothesis that the 95% PGY yield range is inherently precautionary with respect to impairing recruitment. An FMSY range was calculated for each stock as the range of fishing mortalities (F) that lead to an average catch of at least 95% of MSY in long-term simulations. Further, a precautionary reference point for each stock (FP.05) was defined as the F resulting in a 5% probability of the spawning-stock biomass falling below an agreed biomass limit below which recruitment is impaired (Blim) in long-term simulations. For the majority of the stocks analysed, the upper bound of the FMSY range exceeded the estimated FP.05. However, larger fish species had higher precautionary limits to fishing mortality, and species with larger asymptotic length were less likely to have FMSY ranges impairing recruitment. Our study shows that fishing at FMSY generally is precautionary with respect to impairing recruitment for highly exploited teleost species in northern European waters, whereas the upper part of the range providing 95% of MSY is not necessarily precautionary for small- and medium-sized teleosts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Svedäng et al. (2018) concluded that "the occurrence of locally spawned cod eggs suggests that spawning on the Swedish Skagerrak coast takes place, which belong to either a coastal subpopulation that is a remnant stock of a once much larger cod population, or a newly formed subpopulation that is now successfully inhabiting the coastal ecosystems along the Swedish Skagerrak coast". However, after carefully reviewing the results and the data presented by the authors, we were no longer convinced that the information presented provided enough evidence for a local, distinct, coastal cod population in the Swedish Skagerrak. Thus, we requested the original genotype data, which the authors kindly provided to us. This allowed us to explore the substructure of these samples further using STRUCTURE 2.3.2. Re-analysis of the data consistently rejects the existence of an independent coastal Swedish stock in contrast with Svedäng et al. (2018) conclusions. We acknowledge the observation of cod spawning in the area but, based on re-analysis of the original genetic data of Svedäng et al. (2018) , we currently lack the scientific basis to assume the existence of established local stocks, and even less the demographic expansion of an older, relict population in the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a discipline, marine historical ecology (MHE) has contributed significantly to our understanding of the past state of the marine environment when levels of human impact were often very different from those today. What is less widely known is that insights from MHE have made head way into being applied within the context of present-day and long-term management and policy. This study draws attention to the applied value of MHE.We demonstrate that a broad knowledge base exists with potential for management application and advice, including the development of baselines and reference levels. Using a number of case studies from around the world,we showcase the value of historical ecology in understanding change and emphasize how it either has already informed management or has the potential to do so soon. We discuss these case studies in a context of the science-policy interface around six themes that are frequently targeted by current marine and maritime policies: climate change, biodiversity conservation, ecosystem structure, habitat integrity, food security, and human governance. We encourage science-policy bodies to actively engage with contributions from MHE, as well-informed policy decisions need to be framed within the context of historical reference points and past resource or ecosystem changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The eastern Baltic (EB) cod (Gadus morhua) stock was depleted and overexploited for decades until the mid-2000s, when fishing mortality rapidly declined and biomass started to increase, as shown by stock assessments. These positive developments were partly assigned to effective management measures, and the EB cod was considered one of the most successful stock recoveries in recent times. In contrast to this optimistic view, the analytical stock assessment failed in 2014, leaving the present stock status unclear. Deteriorated quality of some basic input data for stock assessment in combination with changes in environmental and ecological conditions has led to an unusual situation for cod in the Baltic Sea, which poses new challenges for stock assessment and management advice. A number of adverse developments such as low nutritional condition and disappearance of larger individuals indicate that the stock is in distress. In this study, we (i) summarize the knowledge of recent changes in cod biology and ecosystem conditions, (ii) describe the subsequent challenges for stock assessment, and (iii) highlight the key questions where answers are urgently needed to understand the present stock status and provide scientifically solid support for cod management in the Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European eel (Anguilla anguilla) is considered as critical endangered and even under the best circumstances it may take decades before the stock recovers. Estimation of eel escapement biomass, Bescapement, is of critical importance to evaluate management schemes and to predict the recovery potential for the eel stock. Westerberg and Wickström (2015. Stock assessment of eels in the Baltic: reconciling survey estimates to achieve quantitative analysis. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 73: 75-83) attempt to estimate potential Bescapement based on the assumptions that all elvers at the entrance of the Baltic also migrate into the Baltic Sea and that natural mortality is low under the whole growth stage (close to 0.02 at the age of 10 years and older). As a consequence, Westerberg and Wickström estimated the present potential Bescapement at ~10-20 000 tonnes and fishing mortality close to 0.05-0.10, while it was also suggested that other sources of anthropogenic mortality may reduce the actual escapement to unknown levels. Here we argue that these conclusions are entirely speculative and contradicted by tagging experiment and fishery data, which instead indicate a much higher fishing mortality (mortality induced by legal professional fishery) rates and a considerably smaller eel biomass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explored the trends in ln-transformed catch per unit effort, defined as average weight (kg) per 1h trawling, and the spatial distribution of 32 demersal fish species in the Kattegat and Skagerrak using International Bottom Trawl Survey data collected between 1981 and 2003. As in other areas, the biomass of roundfish species such as cod, pollack, hake, and ling drastically decreased during this period most likely owing to fishing pressure. However, other commercially important fish species, e.g. haddock, whiting, and some flatfish, showed a constant or increasing trend during the same period. Non-commercial species showed no or an increasing trend in ln-cpue, by as much as 40 times in hagfish. Furthermore, analyses of the spatial distribution of 14 selected fish species by means of distribution maps of ln-cpue suggested that fish stocks contracted and expanded in response to decrease and increase of the stock biomass, respectively, with some flatfish species (i.e. plaice and flounder) and hagfish representing the exceptions to this general pattern. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

No field studies have been performed on the selectivity of herring and sprat in the southern Baltic Sea in relation to their entire range of prey. Accordingly, we tested in the field the following hypotheses: (i) sprat and herring are selective feeders and (ii) sprat and herring selectivity is size- and season- dependent. The results show that (i) smaller herring and all size classes of sprat are strictly zooplanktivorous, selecting principally Temora longicornis and Bosmina maritima during the autumn and Pseudocalanus elongatus in winter; (ii) larger herring are essentially nektobenthos feeders, predating on Mysis mixta during the autumn and amphipods and polychaetes during the winter; and (iii) herring and sprat seem to avoid Acartia spp. in both autumn and winter. During the autumn, herring are zooplanktivorous up to 18–20cm, whereas in winter herring feed on nektobenthos starting from 14–15cm. Selectivity was not an absolute process but it was related to prey relative abundance in the sea and, possibly, to prey profitability (e.g. size, conspicuousness, and reaction time). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]