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To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2010.06.003 Byline: Steven R. Chesley (a), James Baer (b), David G. Monet (c) Keywords: Asteroids; Comets Abstract: In this paper, we discuss the detection of systematic biases in star positions of the USNO A1.0, A2.0, and B1.0 catalogs, as deduced from the residuals of numbered asteroid observations. We present a technique for the removal of these biases, and validate this technique by illustrating the resulting improvements in numbered asteroid residuals, and by establishing that debiased orbits predict omitted observations more accurately than do orbits derived from non-debiased observations. We also illustrate the benefits of debiasing to high-precision astrometric applications such as asteroid mass determination and collision analysis, including a refined prediction of the impact probability of 99942 Apophis. Specifically, we find the IP of Apophis to be lowered by nearly an order of magnitude to 4.5x10.sup.-6 for the 2036 close approach. Author Affiliation: (a) Jet Propulsion Laboratory/Caltech, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA (b) James Cook University, School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia (c) United States Naval Observatory, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA Article History: Received 26 January 2010; Revised 29 May 2010; Accepted 2 June 2010

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2009.05.029 Byline: Andrea Milani (a), Steven R. Chesley (b), Maria Eugenia Sansaturio (c), Fabrizio Bernardi (a)(d), Giovanni B. Valsecchi (d), Oscar Arratia (c) Keywords: Asteroids; Dynamics; Impact processes; Orbit determination Abstract: The potentially hazardous Asteroid (101955) 1999 RQ.sub.36 has a possibility of colliding with the Earth in the latter half of the 22nd century, well beyond the traditional 100-year time horizon for routine impact monitoring. The probabilities accumulate to a total impact probability of approximately 10.sup.-3, with a pair of closely related routes to impact in 2182 comprising more than half of the total. The analysis of impact possibilities so far in the future is strongly dependent on the action of the Yarkovsky effect, which raises new challenges in the careful assessment of longer term impact hazards. Even for asteroids with very precisely determined orbits, a future close approach to Earth can scatter the possible trajectories to the point that the problem becomes like that of a newly discovered asteroid with a weakly determined orbit. If the scattering takes place late enough so that the target plane uncertainty is dominated by Yarkovsky accelerations then the thermal properties of the asteroid, which are typically unknown, play a major role in the impact assessment. In contrast, if the strong planetary interaction takes place sooner, while the Yarkovsky dispersion is still relatively small compared to that derived from the measurements, then precise modeling of the nongravitational acceleration may be unnecessary. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Largo Pontecorvo 5, 56127 Pisa, Italy (b) Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Calif. Inst. of Tech., Pasadena, CA 91109, USA (c) E.T.S. de Ingenieros Industriales, University of Valladolid, Paseo del Cauce 59, 47011 Valladolid, Spain (d) IASF-Roma, INAF, via Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Roma, Italy Article History: Received 22 January 2009; Revised 4 May 2009; Accepted 18 May 2009

When a new near Earth asteroid is discovered, it is important to know whether or not there is the possibility of an impact with the Earth in the near future. In this paper, we describe the technical approaches employed by the two operational second-generation asteroid impact monitoring systems, CLOMON2 and Sentry, paying particular attention to the similarities and differences between these independent systems. The detection and characterization of a potential impact requires the propagation of the orbital probability density function from the time of discovery to the time of hypothetical impact. Since the N-body problem is not integrable, this can be done only by sampling the orbital elements space with a finite number of Virtual Asteroids (VAs), the orbit of each one being propagated numerically. Our methods, illustrated in this paper, use the Line Of Variation (LOV), a unidimensional subspace, to perform this sampling. The primary goal is to detect Virtual Impactors (VIs), which are regions in the initial conditions space leading to dynamically distinct collision solutions; then a probability integral needs to be computed on the volume of the VI. An important issue is how to assure completeness of such a search down to some impact probability threshold. This problem cannot be efficiently solved just by computing more VAs, but requires a geometric description of the behavior of the LOV in order to identify the critical segments of this curve. We have studied these behaviors on the Target Plane (TP) through our analytical theory and the output of many numerical tests. Assuming that the geometry is the simplest compatible with the data available from the sampling, we obtain a classification which allows us to use iterative methods, appropriate for each case, to find the closest approach distance possible along the LOV. After an LOV minimum has been identified, it is possible to use a probability density linearized at this point. However, when the cross section of the Earth is not crossed by the LOV, there is no guarantee that nonlinearity would be negligible in the direction on the TP transversal to the LOV. We describe how to test for such nonlinearity, and thus reduce or eliminate the possibility of spurious VIs. In this way, the performance of our impact monitoring systems has been significantly increased in comparison to the earlier and simpler solitary system. These more advanced systems have identified and then eliminated (through additional observations) more than one hundred cases of asteroids with VIs in the years 2002-2003. Keywords: Celestial mechanics; Asteroids, dynamics; Impacts

Astrometric uncertainty is a crucial component of the asteroid orbit determination process. However, in the absence of rigorous uncertainty information, only very crude weighting schemes are available to the orbit computer. This inevitably leads to a correspondingly crude characterization of the orbital uncertainty and in many cases to less accurate orbits. In this paper we describe a method for carefully assessing the statistical performance of the various observatories that have produced asteroid astrometry, with the ultimate goal of using this statistical characterization to improve asteroid orbit determination. We also include a detailed description of our previously unpublished automatic outlier rejection algorithm used in the orbit determination, which is an important component of the fitting process. To start this study we have determined the best fitting orbits for the first 17,349 numbered asteroids and computed the corresponding O-C astrometric residuals for all observations used in the orbit fitting. We group the residuals into roughly homogeneous bins and compute the root mean square (RMS) error and bias in declination and right ascension for each bin. Results are tabulated for each of the 77 bins containing more than 3000 observations; this comprises roughly two thirds of the data, but only 2% of the bins. There are several interesting results, including substantial bias from several observatories, and some distinct non-Gaussian characteristics that are difficult to explain. Several limitations of our approach and possible future improvements are discussed. The correlation of errors among observations taken closely together in time is in many cases an important issue that has rarely been considered. We have computed the mean correlation between observations with varying time separations and obtained empirical functions that model the results. This has been done for several observatories with very large data sets (the remainder has been lumped into a single mixed batch). These functions could be used for estimating correlation coefficients among different observations of the same observatory, supplying a new observation weighting scheme based upon an empirically tested observational error model. Keywords: Asteroids; Data reduction techniques; Orbits

Spacecraft have successfully landed on the Moon, Venus, and Mars, and have penetrated the atmosphere of Jupiter. On 2001 February 12, the Near-Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) Shoemaker spacecraft landed on the surface of the asteroid (433) Eros after a year of observations in orbit about the asteroid. NEAR Shoemaker was not designed to land on an asteroid, complicating the design of operations needed to accomplish this feat. However, the NEAR Shoemaker team wanted to attempt a landing after the year of orbital operations that consumed most of the remaining spacecraft fuel, operations funding, and planned Deep Space Network tracking. This would be a fitting end to the mission, and it would be possible to obtain images at much greater resolution during the descent than could be obtained from orbit. The operations were more successful than the NEAR Shoemaker team had hoped, obtaining 70 high-resolution images during the descent and two weeks of gamma-ray spectrometer data from the surface after the successful soft landing. Key Words: asteroids; Eros; surface, asteroids; orbits.

Predictions of future potential Earth impacts by near-Earth objects (NEOs) have become commonplace in recent years, and the rate of these detections is likely to accelerate as asteroid survey efforts continue to mature. In order to conveniently compare and categorize the numerous potential impact solutions being discovered we propose a new hazard scale that will describe the risk posed by a particular potential impact in both absolute and relative terms. To this end, we measure each event in two ways, first without any consideration of the event's time proximity or its significance relative to the so-called background threat, and then in the context of the expected risk from other objects over the intervening years until the impact. This approach is designed principally to facilitate communication among astronomers, and it is not intended for public communication of impact risks. The scale characterizes impacts across all impact energies, probabilities and dates, and it is useful, in particular, when dealing with those cases which fall below the threshold of public interest. The scale also reflects the urgency of the situation in a natural way and thus can guide specialists in assessing the computational and observational effort appropriate for a given situation. In this paper we describe the metrics introduced, and we give numerous examples of their application. This enables us to establish in rough terms the levels at which events become interesting to various parties. Key Words: asteroids; comets.