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Nowadays color in scientific visualizations is standard and extensively used to group, highlight or delineate different parts of data in visualizations. The rainbow color map (also known as jet color map) is famous for its appealing use of the full visual spectrum with impressive changes in chroma and luminance. Besides attracting attention, science has for decades criticized the rainbow color map for its non-linear and erratic change of hue and luminance along the data variation. The missed uniformity causes a misrepresentation of data values and flaws in science communication. The rainbow color map is scientifically incorrect and hardly decodable for a considerable number of people due to color vision deficiency (CVD) or other vision impairments. Here we aim to raise awareness of how widely used the rainbow color map still is in hydrology. To this end, we perform a paper survey scanning for color issues in around 1000 scientific publications in three different journals including papers published between 2005 and 2020. In this survey, depending on the journal, 16 %–24 % of the publications have a rainbow color map and around the same ratio of papers (18 %–29 %) uses red–green elements often in a way that color is the only possibility to decode the visualized groups of data. Given these shares, there is a 99.6 % chance to pick at least one visual problematic publication in 10 randomly chosen papers from our survey. To overcome the use of the rainbow color maps in science, we propose some tools and techniques focusing on improvement of typical visualization types in hydrological science. We give guidance on how to avoid, improve and trust color in a proper and scientific way. Finally, we outline an approach how the rainbow color map flaws should be communicated across different status groups in science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While global streamflow reanalysis has been evaluated at different spatial scales to facilitate practical applications, its local performance in the time–frequency domain is yet to be investigated. This paper presents a novel decomposition approach to evaluating streamflow reanalysis by combining wavelet transform with machine learning. Specifically, the time series of streamflow reanalysis and observation are respectively decomposed and then the approximation components of reanalysis are evaluated against those of observed streamflow. Furthermore, the accumulated local effects are derived to showcase the influences of catchment attributes on the performance of streamflow reanalysis at different scales. For streamflow reanalysis generated by the Global Flood Awareness System, a case study is devised based on streamflow observations from the Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies. The results highlight that the reanalysis tends to be more effective in characterizing seasonal, annual and multi-annual features than daily, weekly and monthly features. The Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) values of original time series and approximation components are primarily influenced by precipitation seasonality. High values of KGE tend to be observed in catchments where there is more precipitation in winter, which can be due to low evaporation that results in reasonable simulations of soil moisture and baseflow processes. The longitude, mean precipitation and mean slope also influence the local performance of approximation components. On the other hand, attributes on geology, soils and vegetation appear to play a relatively small part in the performance of approximation components. Overall, this paper provides useful information for practical applications of global streamflow reanalysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inter-basin water transfer projects are the main measure to address the water deficit crisis caused by uneven distribution of water resources. The current water transfer operation mainly tends to be present in areas with small water transfer costs and is prone to encounter the problem of spatial and temporal imbalances in water allocation. To address these issues, this paper defines a water deficit evenness index (WDEI), aimed at minimizing regional differences in water scarcity and sharing the pressure of water scarcity as a social demand objective. This index is incorporated into a joint optimization model for the Jiangsu section of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (J-SNWDP), which comprises both the ecological objective of the total water deficit (TWD) and the economic objective of the pumping water (PW). Further, the Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm III (NSGA-III) and multi-attribute decision-making were applied to solve the model and obtain an optimal operation strategy. The results showed the following: (1) the WDEI defined in this paper can mitigate the synchronized water scarcity in certain water users. In typical normal years (wet year and dry year), the WDEI shows a reduction of 94.2 % (81.8 %, 76.7 %) compared to the historical operation strategy. (2) The optimized operation strategy can significantly reduce TWD and PW by 82.06% (37.69 %, 52.36 %) and 45.13 % (3.25 %, 21.51 %) compared with the historical values, respectively, which can improve the water supply satisfaction and reduce the project cost. At the same time, the lake storage capacity of the optimal operation strategy performs well, and the water transfer efficiency of the river is significantly improved. (3) In this paper, targeted optimal operation strategies and potential ways to secure the project tasks are proposed for different natural flow. Overall, it is of great significance to study the water supply equity in the J-SNWDP to alleviate the concentrated water deficit in Jiangsu Province and other similar regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paleoclimate research indicates that the Australian instrumental climate record (~ 100 years) does not cover the full range of hydroclimatic variability that is possible. To better understand the implications of this on catchment-scale water resources management, a 1013-year (1000-2012 common era (CE)) annual rainfall reconstruction was produced for the Williams River catchment in coastal eastern Australia. No high-resolution paleoclimate proxies are located in the region and so a teleconnection between summer sea salt deposition recorded in ice cores from East Antarctica and rainfall variability in eastern Australia was exploited to reconstruct the catchment-scale rainfall record. The reconstruction shows that significantly longer and more frequent wet and dry periods were experienced in the preinstrumental compared to the instrumental period. This suggests that existing drought and flood risk assessments underestimate the true risks due to the reliance on data and statistics obtained from only the instrumental record. This raises questions about the robustness of existing water security and flood protection measures and has serious implications for water resources management, infrastructure design and catchment planning. The method used in this proof of concept study is transferable and enables similar insights into the true risk of flood/drought to be gained for other paleoclimate proxy poor regions for which suitable remote teleconnected proxies exist. This will lead to improved understanding and ability to deal with the impacts of multi-decadal to centennial hydroclimatic variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uncertainty of hydrological forecasts is strongly related to the uncertainty of the rainfall field due to the nonlinear relationship between the spatio-temporal pattern of rainfall and runoff. Rain gauges are typically considered to provide reference data to rebuild precipitation fields. However, due to the density and the distribution variability of the rain gauge network, the rebuilding of the precipitation field can be affected by severe errors which compromise the hydrological simulation output. On the other hand, retrievals obtained from remote sensing observations provide spatially resolved precipitation fields, improving their representativeness. In this regard, the comparison between simulated and observed river flow discharge is crucial for assessing the effectiveness of merged precipitation data in enhancing the model's performance and its ability to realistically simulate hydrological processes. This paper aims to investigate the hydrological impact of using the merged rainfall fields from the Italian rain gauge network and the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) IMERG precipitation product. One aspect is to highlight the benefits of applying the cellular automata algorithm to pre-process input data in order to merge them and reconstruct an improved version of the precipitation field. The cellular automata approach is evaluated in the Tanaro River basin, one of the tributaries of the Po River in Italy. As this site is characterized by the coexistence of a variety of natural morphologies, from mountain to alluvial environments, as well as the presence of significant civil and industrial settlements, it makes it a suitable case study to apply the proposed approach. The latter has been applied over three different flood events that occurred from November to December 2014. The results confirm that the use of merged gauge–satellite data using the cellular automata algorithm improves the performance of the hydrological simulation, as also confirmed by the statistical analysis performed for 17 selected quality scores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources managers need to make decisions in a constantly changing environment because the data relating to water resources are uncertain and imprecise. The Robust Optimization and Probabilistic Analysis of Robustness (ROPAR) algorithm is a well-suited tool for dealing with uncertainty. Still, the failure to consider multiple uncertainties and multi-objective robustness hinders the application of the ROPAR algorithm to practical problems. This paper proposes a robust optimization and robustness probabilistic analysis method that considers numerous uncertainties and multi-objective robustness for robust water resources allocation under uncertainty. The copula function is introduced for analyzing the probabilities of different scenarios. The robustness with respect to the two objective functions is analyzed separately, and the Pareto frontier of robustness is generated. The relationship between the robustness with respect to the two objective functions is used to evaluate water resources management strategies. Use of the method is illustrated in a case study of water resources allocation in the Huaihe River basin. The results demonstrate that the method opens a possibility for water managers to make more informed uncertainty-aware decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In July 2021, extreme precipitation caused devastating flooding in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, particularly in the Geul River catchment. Such precipitation extremes had not been previously recorded and were not expected to occur in summer. This contributed to poor flood forecasting and, hence, extensive damage. Climate change was mentioned as a potential explanation for these unprecedented events. However, before such a statement can be made, we need a better understanding of the drivers of floods in the Geul and their long-term variability, which are poorly understood and have not been recently examined. In this paper, we use an event-based approach to identify the dominant flood drivers in the Geul. We also employ (1) a multi-temporal trend analysis to investigate their temporal variability and (2) a novel methodology to detect the dominant direction of any trend. Results suggest that extreme 24 h precipitation alone is typically insufficient to cause floods. The joint probability of extreme and prolonged rainfall combined with wet initial conditions (compound event) determines the chances of flooding. Flood-producing precipitation shows a consistent increase in the winter half-year, a period in which more than 70 % of extremely high flows have historically occurred. While no consistent trend patterns are evident in the majority of precipitation and extreme flow trends in the summer half-year, an increasing direction is visible in the recent past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has resulted in more frequent occurrences of extreme events, such as flooding and heavy snowfall, which can have a significant impact on densely populated or industrialised areas. Numerical models are used to simulate and predict these extreme events, enabling informed decision-making and planning to minimise human casualties and to protect costly infrastructure. LISFLOOD is an integrated hydrological model underpinning the European Flood Awareness System and Global Flood Awareness System (EFAS and GloFAS, respectively), developed by the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS). The CEMS_SurfaceFields_2022 dataset is a new set of high-resolution surface fields at 1 and 3 arcmin resolution (approximately 2 and 6 km at the Equator, respectively) based on a wide variety of high-resolution and up-to-date data sources. The 1 arcmin fields cover Europe, while the surface fields at 3 arcmin cover the global land surface (excluding Antarctica). The dataset encompasses (i) catchment morphology and river networks, (ii) land use, (iii) vegetation cover type and properties, (iv) soil properties, (v) lake information, and (vi) water demand. This paper details the complete workflow used to generate the CEMS_SurfaceFields_2022 fields, including the data sources and methodology. Whilst created together with upgrades to the open source LISFLOOD code, the CEMS_SurfaceFields_2022 fields can be used independently for a wide range of applications, including as input to hydrological, Earth system, or environmental models or for carrying out general analyses across spatial scales, ranging from global and regional levels to local levels (especially useful for regions outside Europe), expected to improve the accuracy, detail and realism of applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the question of how catchment-scale water and energy balances have responded to climatic and land surface changes over the last 70 years in the federal state of Saxony in eastern Germany. Therefore, observational data of hydrological and meteorological monitoring sites from 1951 to 2020 across 71 catchments are examined in a relative water- and energy-partitioning framework to put the recent drought-induced changes into a historical perspective. A comprehensive visualization method is used to analyze the observed time series. The study focuses on changes on a decadal timescale and finds the largest decline in observed runoff in the last decade (2011–2020). The observed decline can be explained by the significant increase in aridity, caused by the reduction in annual mean rainfall and a simultaneous increase in potential evaporation. In a few mainly forested headwater catchments, the observed decline in runoff was even stronger than predicted by climate conditions alone. These catchments are still recovering from past widespread forest damages sustained in the 1970s to 1980s, resulting in a continuous increase in actual evapotranspiration due to forest regrowth. On the contrary, runoff stayed almost constant in other catchments despite an increase in aridity. These results highlight that water budgets in Saxony are in an unstable, non-stationary regime due to significant climatic changes and the regional impacts of land surface changes such as forest health. The recent decreases in the mean annual runoff are substantial and must be taken into account by the authorities for freshwater management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite remote sensing (RS) data are increasingly being used to estimate total evaporation, often referred to as evapotranspiration (ET), over large regions. Since RS-based ET (RS-ET) estimation inherits uncertainties from several sources, many available studies have assessed these uncertainties using different methods. However, the suitability of methods and reference data subsequently affects the validity of these evaluations. This study summarizes the status of the various methods applied for uncertainty assessment of RS-ET estimates, discusses the advances and caveats of these methods, identifies assessment gaps, and provides recommendations for future studies. We systematically reviewed 676 research papers published from 2011 to 2021 that assessed the uncertainty or accuracy of RS-ET estimates. We categorized and classified them based on (i) the methods used to assess uncertainties, (ii) the context where uncertainties were evaluated, and (iii) the metrics used to report uncertainties. Our quantitative synthesis shows that the uncertainty assessments of RS-ET estimates are not consistent and comparable in terms of methodology, reference data, geographical distribution, and uncertainty presentation. Most studies used validation methods using eddy-covariance (EC)-based ET estimates as a reference. However, in many regions such as Africa and the Middle East, other references are often used due to the lack of EC stations. The accuracy and uncertainty of RS-ET estimates are most often described by root-mean-squared errors (RMSEs). When validating against EC-based estimates, the RMSE of daily RS-ET varies greatly among different locations and levels of temporal support, ranging from 0.01 to 6.65 mm d -1 , with a mean of 1.18 mm d -1. We conclude that future studies need to report the context of validation, the uncertainty of the reference datasets, the mismatch in the temporal and spatial scales of reference datasets to those of the RS-ET estimates, and multiple performance metrics with their variation in different conditions and their statistical significance to provide a comprehensive interpretation to assist potential users. We provide specific recommendations in this regard. Furthermore, extending the application of RS-ET to regions that lack validation will require obtaining additional ground-based data and combining different methods for uncertainty assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Braided rivers can provide substantial recharge to regional aquifers, with flow exchange between surface water and groundwater occurring at a range of spatial and temporal scales. However, the difficulty in measuring and modelling these complex and dynamic river systems has hampered process understanding and the upscaling necessary to quantify these fluxes. This is due to an incomplete understanding of the hydrogeological structures that control river–groundwater exchange. In this paper, we present a new conceptualisation of subsurface processes in braided rivers based on observations of the main losing reaches of three braided rivers in Aotearoa / New Zealand. The conceptual model is based on a range of data, including lidar, bathymetry, coring, particle size distribution, groundwater level and temperature monitoring, radon-222, electrical-resistivity tomography and fibre-optic cables. The combined results indicate that sediments within the recently active river braidplain are distinctive, with sediments that are poorly consolidated and better sorted compared with adjacent deposits from the historical braidplain that become successively consolidated and intermixed with flood silt deposits due to overbank flow. A distinct sedimentary unconformity, combined with the presence of geomorphologically distinct lateral boundaries, suggests that a "braidplain aquifer" forms within the active river braidplain through the process of sediment mobilisation during flood events. This braidplain aquifer concept introduces a shallow storage reservoir to the river system, which is distinct from the regional aquifer system, and mediates the exchange of flow between individual river channels and the regional aquifer. The implication of the new concept is that surface water–groundwater exchange occurs at two spatial scales: the first is hyporheic and parafluvial exchange between the river and braidplain aquifer; the second is exchange between the braidplain aquifer and regional aquifer system. Exchange at both scales is influenced by the state of hydraulic connection between the respective water bodies. This conceptualisation acknowledges braided rivers as whole "river systems", consisting of channels and a gravel aquifer reservoir. This work has important implications for understanding how changes in river management (e.g. surface water extraction, bank training and gravel extraction) and morphology may impact groundwater recharge (and potentially flow, temperature attenuation and ecological resilience) under dry conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global hydrological models enhance our understanding of the Earth system and support the sustainable management of water, food and energy in a globalized world. They integrate process knowledge with a multitude of model input data (e.g., precipitation, soil properties, and the location and extent of surface waterbodies) to describe the state of the Earth. However, they do not fully utilize observations of model output variables (e.g., streamflow and water storage) to reduce and quantify model output uncertainty through processes like parameter estimation. For a pilot region, the Mississippi River basin, we assessed the suitability of three ensemble-based multi-variable approaches to amend this: Pareto-optimal calibration (POC); the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE); and the ensemble Kalman filter, here modified for joint calibration and data assimilation (EnCDA). The paper shows how observations of streamflow (Q) and terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) can be utilized to reduce and quantify the uncertainty of model output by identifying optimal and behavioral parameter sets for individual drainage basins. The common first steps in all approaches are (1) the definition of drainage basins for which calibration parameters are uniformly adjusted (CDA units), combined with the selection of observational data; (2) the identification of potential calibration parameters and their a priori probability distributions; and (3) sensitivity analyses to select the most influential model parameters per CDA unit that will be adjusted by calibration. Data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter was modified, to our knowledge, for the first time for a global hydrological model to assimilate both TWSA and Q with simultaneous parameter adjustment. In the estimation of model output uncertainty, we considered the uncertainties of the Q and TWSA observations. Applying the global hydrological model WaterGAP, we found that the POC approach is best suited for identifying a single "optimal" parameter set for each CDA unit. This parameter set leads to an improved fit to the monthly time series of both Q and TWSA as compared to the standard WaterGAP variant, which is only calibrated against mean annual Q , and can be used to compute the best estimate of WaterGAP output. The GLUE approach is almost as successful as POC in increasing WaterGAP performance and also allows, with a comparable computational effort, the estimation of model output uncertainties that are due to the equifinality of parameter sets given the observation uncertainties. Our experiment reveals that the EnCDA approach performs similarly to POC and GLUE in most CDA units during the assimilation phase but is not yet competitive for calibrating global hydrological models; its potential advantages remain unrealized, likely due to its high computational burden, which severely limits the ensemble size, and the intrinsic nonlinearity in simulating Q. Partitioning the whole Mississippi River basin into five CDA units (sub-basins) instead of only one improved model performance in terms of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency during the calibration and validation periods. Diverse parameter sets achieved comparable fits to observations, narrowing the range for at least three parameters. Low coverage of observation uncertainty bands by GLUE-derived model output bands is attributed to model structure uncertainties, especially regarding artificial reservoir operations, the location and extent of small wetlands, and the lack of representation of rivers that may lose water to the subsurface. These uncertainties are also likely to be responsible for significant trade-offs between optimal fits to Q and TWSA. Calibration performed exclusively against TWSA in regions without Q observations may worsen the Q simulation as compared to the uncalibrated model variant. We recommend that modelers improve the realism of the output of global hydrological models by calibrating them against observations of multiple output variables, including at least Q and TWSA. Further work on improving the numerical efficiency of the EnCDA approach is necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floodplain wetland ecosystems experience significant seasonal water fluctuation over the year, resulting in a dynamic hydroperiod, with a range of vegetation community responses. This paper assesses trends and changes in land cover and hydroclimatological variables, including air temperature, river discharge, and water level in the Upper Columbia River Wetlands (UCRW), British Columbia, Canada. A land cover classification time series from 1984 to 2022 was generated from the Landsat image archive using a random forest algorithm. Peak river flow timing, duration, and anomalies were examined to evaluate temporal coincidence with observed land cover trends. The land cover classifier used to segment changes in wetland area and open water performed well (kappa of 0.82). Over the last 4 decades, observed river discharge and air temperature have increased, precipitation has decreased, the timing of peak flow is earlier, and the flow duration has been reduced. The frequency of both high-discharge events and dry years have increased, indicating a shift towards more extreme floodplain flow behavior. These hydrometeorological changes are associated with a shift in the timing of snowmelt, from April to mid-May, and with seasonal changes in the vegetative communities over the 39-year period. Thus, woody shrubs (+ 6 % to + 12 %) have expanded as they gradually replaced marsh and wet-meadow land covers with a reduction in open-water area. This suggests that increasing temperatures have already impacted the regional hydrology, wetland hydroperiod, and floodplain land cover in the Upper Columbia River valley. Overall, there is substantial variation in seasonal and annual land cover, reflecting the dynamic nature of floodplain wetlands, but the results show that the wetlands are drying out with increasing areas of woody/shrub habitat and loss of aquatic habitat. The results suggest that floodplain wetlands, particularly marsh and open-water habitats, are vulnerable to climatic and hydrological changes that could further reduce their areal extent in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The allocation of points in a river network to pixels of a coarse-resolution hydrological modelling grid is a well-known issue, especially for hydrologists who use measurements at gauging stations to calibrate and validate distributed hydrological models. To address this issue, the traditional approach involves examining grid cells surrounding the considered river point and selecting the best candidate, based on distance and upstream drainage area as decision criteria. However, recent studies have suggested that focusing on basin boundaries rather than basin areas could prevent many allocation errors, even though the performance gain is rarely assessed. This paper compares different allocation methods and examines their relative performances. Three methods representing various families of methods have been designed: area-based, topology-based and contour-based methods. These methods are implemented to allocate 2580 river points to a 1 km hydrological modelling grid. These points are distributed along the entire hydrographic network of the French southeastern Mediterranean region, covering upstream drainage areas ranging from 5 to 3000 km 2. The results indicate that the differences between the methods can be significant, especially for small upstream catchment areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A series of numerical experiments were conducted to test the connection between streamflow hydrographs at the outlet of large watersheds and the time series of hillslope-scale runoff yield. We used a distributed hydrological routing model that discretizes a large watershed (∼ 17 000 km 2) into small hillslope units (∼ 0.1 km 2) and applied distinct surface runoff time series to each unit that deliver the same volume of water into the river network. The numerical simulations show that distinct runoff delivery time series at the hillslope scale result in indistinguishable streamflow hydrographs at large scales. This limitation is imposed by space-time averaging of input flows into the river network that are draining the landscape. The results of the simulations presented in this paper show that, under very general conditions of streamflow routing (i.e., nonlinear variable velocities in space and time), the streamflow hydrographs at the outlet of basins with Horton–Strahler (H–S) order 5 or above (larger than 100 km 2 in our setup) contain very little information about the temporal variability of runoff production at the hillslope scale and therefore the processes from which they originate. In addition, our results indicate that the rate of convergence to a common hydrograph shape at larger scales (above H–S order 5) is directly proportional to how different the input signals are to each other at the hillslope scale. We conclude that the ability of a hydrological model to replicate outlet hydrographs does not imply that a correct and meaningful description of small-scale rainfall–runoff processes has been provided. Furthermore, our results provide context for other studies that demonstrate how the physics of runoff generation cannot be inferred from output signals in commonly used hydrological models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water productivity (or efficiency) data inform water policy, zoning, and planning, along with water allocation decisions under water scarcity pressure. This paper demonstrates that different water productivity metrics lead to different conclusions about who is using water more effectively. In addition to supporting the population's drinking and sanitation needs, water generates many other public and private social, environmental, and economic values. For the group of municipalities comprising the Phoenix metropolitan area, we compare several water productivity metrics by calculating the water value intensity (WVI) of potable water delivered by the municipality to its residential and non-residential customers. Core cities with more industrial water uses are less productive by the conventional efficiency measure of water used per capita, but core cities generate more tax revenues, business revenues, and payroll per unit of water delivered, achieving a higher water productivity by these measures. We argue that policymakers should consider a more diverse set of socio-economic water productivity measures to ensure that a broader set of values are represented in water allocation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Headwater streams, which are small streams at the top of a watershed, account for the majority of the total length of streams, yet their exact locations are still not well known. For years, many algorithms were used to produce hydrographic networks that represent headwater streams with varying degrees of accuracy. Although digital elevation models derived from lidar have significantly improved headwater stream detection, the performance of the algorithms on landscapes with different geomorphologic characteristics remains unclear. Here, we address this issue by testing different combinations of algorithms using classification trees. Homogeneous hydrological processes were identified through Quaternary deposits. The results showed that in shallow soil that mainly consists of till deposits, the use of algorithms that simulate the surface runoff process provides the best explanation for the presence of a streambed. In contrast, streambeds in thick soil with high infiltration rates were primarily explained by a small-scale incision algorithm. Furthermore, the use of an iterative process that simulates water diffusion made it possible to detect streambeds more accurately than all other methods tested, regardless of the hydrological classification. The method developed in this paper shows the importance of considering hydrological processes when aiming to identify headwater streams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plastic is an emerging pollutant, and the quantities in rivers and oceans are expected to increase. Rivers are assumed to transport land-based plastic into the ocean, and the fluvial and marine transport processes have been relatively well studied to date. However, the processes controlling the transport in tidal rivers and estuaries, the interface between fluvial and marine systems, remain largely unresolved. For this reason, current estimates of riverine plastic pollution and export into the ocean remain highly uncertain. Hydrodynamics in tidal rivers and estuaries are influenced by tides and freshwater discharge. As a consequence, flow velocity direction and magnitude can change diurnally. In turn, this impacts the transport dynamics of solutes and pollutants, including plastics. Plastic transport dynamics in tidal rivers and estuaries remain understudied, yet the available observations suggest that plastics can be retained here for long time periods, especially during periods of low net discharge. Additional factors such as riparian vegetation and riverbank characteristics, in combination with bi-directional flows and varying water levels, can lead to an even higher likelihood of long-term retention. Here, we provide a first observation-based estimate of net plastic transport on a daily timescale in tidal rivers. For this purpose, we developed a simple Eulerian approach using sub-hourly observations of plastic transport and discharge during full tidal cycles. We applied our method to the highly polluted Saigon River, Vietnam, throughout six full tidal cycles in May 2022. We show that the net plastic transport is about 20 %–33 % of the total plastic transport. We found that plastic transport and river discharge are positively and significantly correlated (Pearson's R2 = 0.76). The net transport of plastic is higher than the net discharge (20 %–33 % and 16 %, respectively), suggesting that plastic transport is governed by factors other than water flow. Such factors include wind, varying plastic concentrations in the water, and entrapment of plastics downstream of the measurement site. The plastic net transport rates alternate between positive (seaward) net transport and negative (landward) net transport as a result of the diurnal inequality in the tidal cycles. We found that soft and neutrally buoyant items had considerably lower net transport rates than rigid and highly buoyant items (10 %–16 % vs. 30 %–38 %), suggesting that transport dynamics strongly depend on item characteristics. Our results demonstrate the crucial role of tidal dynamics and bi-directional flows in plastic transport dynamics. With this paper we emphasize the importance of understanding fundamental transport dynamics in tidal rivers and estuaries to ultimately reduce the uncertainties of plastic emission estimates into the ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological modelling of small mountainous catchments is particularly challenging because of the high spatio-temporal resolution required for the meteorological forcings. In situ measurements of precipitation are typically scarce in these remote areas, particularly at high elevations. Precipitation reanalyses propose different alternative forcings for the simulation of streamflow using hydrological models. In this paper, we evaluate the performances of two hydrological models representing some of the key processes for small mountainous catchments (< 300 km 2), using different meteorological products with a fine spatial and temporal resolution. The evaluation is performed on 55 small catchments of the northern French Alps. While the simulated streamflows are adequately reproduced for most of the configurations, these evaluations emphasize the added value of radar measurements, in particular for the reproduction of flood events. However, these better performances are only obtained because the hydrological models correct the underestimations of accumulated amounts (e.g. annual) from the radar data in high-elevation areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parameter sensitivity analysis plays a critical role in efficiently determining main parameters, enhancing the effectiveness of the estimation of parameters and uncertainty quantification in hydrologic modeling. In this paper, we demonstrate an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis technique for the holistic Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT +) model coupled with new gwflow module, spatially distributed, physically based groundwater flow modeling. The main calculated groundwater inflows and outflows include boundary exchange, pumping, saturation excess flow, groundwater–surface water exchange, recharge, groundwater–lake exchange and tile drainage outflow. We present the method for four watersheds located in different areas of the United States for 16 years (2000–2015), emphasizing regions of extensive tile drainage (Winnebago River, Minnesota, Iowa), intensive surface–groundwater interactions (Nanticoke River, Delaware, Maryland), groundwater pumping for irrigation (Cache River, Missouri, Arkansas) and mountain snowmelt (Arkansas Headwaters, Colorado). The main parameters of the coupled SWAT + gwflow model are estimated utilizing the parameter estimation software PEST. The monthly streamflow of holistic SWAT + gwflow is evaluated based on the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index (NSE), percentage bias (PBIAS), determination coefficient (R2) and Kling–Gupta efficiency coefficient (KGE), whereas groundwater head is evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE). The Morris method is employed to identify the key parameters influencing hydrological fluxes. Furthermore, the iterative ensemble smoother (iES) is utilized as a technique for uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter estimation (PE) and to decrease the computational cost owing to the large number of parameters. Depending on the watershed, key identified selected parameters include aquifer specific yield, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, recharge delay, streambed thickness, streambed hydraulic conductivity, area of groundwater inflow to tile, depth of tiles below ground surface, hydraulic conductivity of the drain perimeter, river depth (for groundwater flow processes), runoff curve number (for surface runoff processes), plant uptake compensation factor, soil evaporation compensation factor (for potential and actual evapotranspiration processes), soil available water capacity and percolation coefficient (for soil water processes). The presence of gwflow parameters permits the recognition of all key parameters in the surface and/or subsurface flow processes, with results substantially differing if the base SWAT + models are utilized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In climates with a warm and a cold season, low flows are generated by different processes, which violates the homogeneity assumption of extreme value statistics. In this second part of a two-part series, we extend the mixed probability estimator of the companion paper to deal with dependency of seasonal events. We formulate a copula-based estimator for seasonal minima series and examine it in a hydrological context. The estimator is a valid generalization of the annual probability estimator and provides a consistent framework for estimating return periods of summer, winter, and annual events. Using archetypal examples we show that differences in the mixed estimator are always observed in the upper part of the distribution, which is less relevant for low-flow frequency analysis. The differences decrease as the return period increases so that both models coincide for the severest events. In a quantitative evaluation, we test the performance of the copula estimator on a pan-European data set. We find a large gain of both mixed distribution approaches over the annual estimator, making these approaches highly relevant for Europe as a whole. We then examine the relative performance gain of the mixed copula versus the mixed distribution approach in more detail. The analysis shows that the differences in the 100-year event are actually minimal. However, the differences in 2-year events are considerable in some of the catchments, with a relative deviation of -15 % to -25 % in the most affected regions. This points to a prediction bias of the mixed probability estimator that can be corrected using the copula approach. Using multiple regression models, we show that the performance gain can be well explained on hydrological grounds, with weak seasonality leading to a high potential for corrections and strong seasonal correlation reinforcing the need to take this potential into account. Accordingly, the greatest differences can be observed in mid-mountain regions in cold and temperate climates, where rivers have a strongly mixed low-flow regime. This finding is of particular relevance for event mapping, where regional severity can be misinterpreted when the seasonal correlation is neglected. We conclude that the two mixed probability estimators are quite similar, and both are conceptually more adequate than the annual minima approach for mixed summer and winter low-flow regimes. In regions with strong seasonal correlation the mixed copula estimator appears most appropriate and should be preferred over the mixed distribution approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Operational global-scale hydrological forecasting systems are used to help manage hydrological extremes such as floods and droughts. The vast amounts of raw data that underpin forecast systems and the ability to generate information on forecast skill have, until now, not been publicly available. As part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS; https://www.globalfloods.eu/ , last access: 3 December 2022) service evolution, in this paper daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecast datasets are made free and openly available through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS). They include real-time forecast data starting on 1 January 2020 updated operationally every day and a 20-year set of reforecasts and associated metadata. This paper describes the model components and configuration used to generate the real-time river discharge forecasts and the reforecasts. An evaluation of ensemble forecast skill using the continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS) was also undertaken for river points around the globe. Results show that GloFAS is skilful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1 to 3 d) and medium range (5 to 15 d) against a persistence benchmark forecast and skilful in over 80 % of catchments out to the extended range (16 to 30 d) against a climatological benchmark forecast. However, the strength of skill varies considerably by location with GloFAS found to have no or negative skill at longer lead times in broad hydroclimatic regions in tropical Africa, western coast of South America, and catchments dominated by snow and ice in high northern latitudes. Forecast skill is summarised as a new headline skill score available as a new layer on the GloFAS forecast Web Map Viewer to aid user interpretation and understanding of forecast quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this opinion paper we submit that water experts conduct comparatively little research on the more urgent challenges facing the global community. Five specific biases are identified. First, research in the field of water and sanitation is heavily biased against sanitation. Second, research on food security is biased in favour of conventional irrigation and fails to address the problems and opportunities of rainfed agriculture. Third, insufficient water research is dedicated to developmental compared to environmental issues. Fourth, too little research is conducted on adaptation to climate change by developing countries. And finally, research on water governance has a fascination for conflict but too little eye for cooperation and meeting basic needs. This paper illustrates these biases with bibliometric indicators extracted from the ISI Web of Science. There is a stark mismatch between the global demand for knowledge and the supply of it. This mismatch is identified here as a problem that we water scientists must confront and resolve. We still lack a full understanding why this divergence between demand and supply occurs and persists; an understanding that is required to guide us towards aligning our research priorities to societal demands. The paper, however, makes some inferences. On the one hand, we should promote the global South to create its own research biases and allow it to develop alternative solutions. Simultaneously we would benefit from critical examination of our own research practice. Although this paper addresses a critical challenge it does not aim to be exhaustive or definitive. We merely identify the persistence of intransigent water problems as a valid research object in itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remote sensing (RS) data are becoming an increasingly important source of information for water resource management as they provide spatially distributed data on water availability and use. However, in order to guide appropriate use of the data, it is important to understand the impact of the uncertainties of RS data on water resource studies. Previous studies have shown that the degree of closure of the water balance from remote sensing data is highly variable across basins and that different RS products vary in their levels of accuracy depending on climatological and geographical conditions. In this paper, we analyzed the water-balance-derived runoff from global RS products for 931 catchments across the globe. We compared time series of runoff estimated through a simplified water balance equation using three precipitation (CHIRPS, GPM, and TRMM), five evapotranspiration (MODIS, SSEBop, GLEAM, CMRSET, and SEBS), and three water storage change (GRACE-CSR, GRACE-JPL, and GRACE-GFZ) RS datasets with monthly in situ discharge data for the period 2003–2016. Results were analyzed through the lens of 10 quantifiable catchment characteristics in order to investigate correlations between catchment characteristics and the quality of RS-based water balance estimates of runoff and whether specific products performed better than others under certain conditions. The median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) for all gauges and all product combinations was - 0.02, and only 44.9 % of the time series reached a positive NSE. A positive NSE could be obtained for 73.7 % of stations with at least one product combination, while the overall best-performing product combination was positive for 58.4 % of stations. This confirms previous findings that the best-performing products cannot be globally established. When investigating the results by catchment characteristic, all combinations tended to show similar correlations between catchment characteristics and the quality of estimated runoff, with the exception of combinations using MODIS evapotranspiration, for which the correlation was frequently reversed. The combinations with the GPM precipitation product generally performed worse than the CHIRPS and TRMM data. However, this can be attributed to the fact that the GPM data are available at higher latitudes compared to the other products, where performance is generally poorer. When removing high-latitude stations, this difference was eliminated, and GPM and TRMM showed similar performance. The results show the highest positive correlation between highly seasonal rainfall and runoff NSE. On the other hand, increasing snow cover, altitude, and latitude decreased the ability of the RS products to close the water balance. The catchment's dominant climate zone was also found to be correlated with time series performance, with the tropical areas providing the highest (median NSE = 0.11) and arid areas the lowest (median NSE = - 0.09) NSE values. No correlation was found between catchment area and runoff NSE. The results highlight the importance of further studies on the uncertainties of the different data products and how these interact when combining them, as well as of new approaches to using the data rather than simple water-balance-type approaches. Efforts to improve specific satellite products can also be better targeted using the results of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical modelling is a reliable tool for flood simulations, but accurate solutions are computationally expensive. In recent years, researchers have explored data-driven methodologies based on neural networks to overcome this limitation. However, most models are only used for a specific case study and disregard the dynamic evolution of the flood wave. This limits their generalizability to topographies that the model was not trained on and in time-dependent applications. In this paper, we introduce shallow water equation–graph neural network (SWE–GNN), a hydraulics-inspired surrogate model based on GNNs that can be used for rapid spatio-temporal flood modelling. The model exploits the analogy between finite-volume methods used to solve SWEs and GNNs. For a computational mesh, we create a graph by considering finite-volume cells as nodes and adjacent cells as being connected by edges. The inputs are determined by the topographical properties of the domain and the initial hydraulic conditions. The GNN then determines how fluxes are exchanged between cells via a learned local function. We overcome the time-step constraints by stacking multiple GNN layers, which expand the considered space instead of increasing the time resolution. We also propose a multi-step-ahead loss function along with a curriculum learning strategy to improve the stability and performance. We validate this approach using a dataset of two-dimensional dike breach flood simulations in randomly generated digital elevation models generated with a high-fidelity numerical solver. The SWE–GNN model predicts the spatio-temporal evolution of the flood for unseen topographies with mean average errors in time of 0.04 m for water depths and 0.004 m 2 s -1 for unit discharges. Moreover, it generalizes well to unseen breach locations, bigger domains, and longer periods of time compared to those of the training set, outperforming other deep-learning models. On top of this, SWE–GNN has a computational speed-up of up to 2 orders of magnitude faster than the numerical solver. Our framework opens the doors to a new approach to replace numerical solvers in time-sensitive applications with spatially dependent uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater age or residence time is important for identifying flow and contaminant pathways through groundwater systems. Typically, groundwater age and age distributions are inferred via lumped parameter models based on measured age tracer concentrations. However, due to cost and time constraints, age tracers are usually only sampled at a small percentage of the wells in a catchment. This paper describes and compares two methods to increase the number of groundwater age data points and assist with validating age distributions inferred from lumped parameter models. Two machine learning techniques with different strengths were applied to develop two independent metamodels that each aim to establish relationships between the hydrochemical parameters and the modelled groundwater age distributions in one test catchment. Ensemble medians from the best model realisations per age distribution percentile were used for comparison with the results from traditional lumped parameter models based on age tracers. Results show that both metamodelling techniques predict age distributions from hydrochemistry with good correspondence to traditional lumped parameter model (LPM)-derived age distributions. Therefore, these techniques can be used to assist with the interpretation of lumped parameter models where age tracers have been sampled, and they can also be applied to predict groundwater age distributions for wells in a similar hydrogeological regime that have hydrochemistry data available but no age tracer data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatially distributed hydrology and land surface models are typically applied in combination with river routing schemes that convert instantaneous runoff into streamflow. Nevertheless, the development of such schemes has been somehow disconnected from hydrologic model calibration research, although both seek to achieve more realistic streamflow simulations. In this paper, we seek to bridge this gap to understand the extent to which the configuration of routing schemes affects hydrologic model parameter searches in water resources applications. To this end, we configure the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model coupled with the mizuRoute routing model in the Cautín River basin (2770 km2), Chile. We use the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method to generate 3500 different model parameters sets, for which basin-averaged runoff estimates are obtained directly (no routing or instantaneous runoff case) and are subsequently compared against outputs from four routing schemes (unit hydrograph, Lagrangian kinematic wave, Muskingum–Cunge, and diffusive wave) applied with five different routing time steps (1, 2, 3, 4, and 6 h). The results show that incorporating routing schemes may alter streamflow simulations at sub-daily, daily, and even monthly timescales. The maximum Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) obtained for daily streamflow increases from 0.64 (instantaneous runoff) to 0.81 (for the best routing scheme), and such improvements do not depend on the routing time step. Moreover, the optimal parameter sets may differ depending on the routing scheme configuration, affecting the baseflow contribution to total runoff. Including routing models decreases streamflow values in flood frequency curves and may alter the probabilistic distribution of the medium- and low-flow segments of the flow duration curve considerably (compared to the case without routing). More generally, the results presented here highlight the potential impacts of river routing implementations on water resources applications that involve hydrologic models and, in particular, parameter calibration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the availability and affordability of unmanned aerial systems (UASs) has led to the rapid development of remote sensing applications in hydrology and hydrometry, uncertainties related to such measurements must be quantified and mitigated. The physical instability of the UAS platform inevitably induces motion in the acquired videos and can have a significant impact on the accuracy of camera-based measurements, such as velocimetry. A common practice in data preprocessing is compensation of platform-induced motion by means of digital image stabilisation (DIS) methods, which use the visual information from the captured videos – in the form of static features – to first estimate and then compensate for such motion. Most existing stabilisation approaches rely either on customised tools developed in-house, based on different algorithms, or on general purpose commercial software. Intercomparison of different stabilisation tools for UAS remote sensing purposes that could serve as a basis for selecting a particular tool in given conditions has not been found in the literature. In this paper, we have attempted to summarise and describe several freely available DIS tools applicable to UAS velocimetry. A total of seven tools – six aimed specifically at velocimetry and one general purpose software – were investigated in terms of their (1) stabilisation accuracy in various conditions, (2) robustness, (3) computational complexity, and (4) user experience, using three case study videos with different flight and ground conditions. In an attempt to adequately quantify the accuracy of the stabilisation using different tools, we have also presented a comparison metric based on root mean squared differences (RMSDs) of inter-frame pixel intensities for selected static features. The most apparent differences between the investigated tools have been found with regards to the method for identifying static features in videos, i.e. manual selection of features or automatic. State-of-the-art methods which rely on automatic selection of features require fewer user-provided parameters and are able to select a significantly higher number of potentially static features (by several orders of magnitude) when compared to the methods which require manual identification of such features. This allows the former to achieve a higher stabilisation accuracy, but manual feature selection methods have demonstrated lower computational complexity and better robustness in complex field conditions. While this paper does not intend to identify the optimal stabilisation tool for UAS-based velocimetry purposes, it does aim to shed light on details of implementation, which can help engineers and researchers choose the tool suitable for their needs and specific field conditions. Additionally, the RMSD comparison metric presented in this paper can be used in order to measure the velocity estimation uncertainty induced by UAS motion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological applications such as storm-water management usually deal with region-specific reference rainfall regulations based on intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves. Such curves are usually obtained via frequency analysis of rainfall and exceedance probability estimation of rain intensity for different durations. It is also common for reference rainfall to be expressed in terms of precipitation P , accumulated in a duration D , with a return period T. Meteorological modules of hydro-meteorological models used for the aforementioned applications therefore need to be capable of simulating such reference rainfall scenarios. This paper aims to address three research gaps: (i) the discrepancy between standard methods for defining reference precipitation and the strong multi-scale intermittency of precipitation, (ii) a lack of procedures to adapt multi-fractal precipitation modelling to specified partial statistical references, and (iii) scarcity of proper multi-scale tools to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of such simulation procedures. Therefore, it proposes (i) a procedure based on extreme non-Gaussian statistics in two scaling regimes due to earth's finite size to tackle multi-scale intermittency head on, (ii) a renormalization technique to make simulations comply with the aforementioned partial statistical references, and (iii) multi-scale metrics to compare simulated rainfall time series with those observed. While the first two proposals are utilized to simulate reference rainfall scenarios for three regions (Paris, Nantes, and Aix-en-Provence) in France that are characterized by different climates, the last one is used to validate them. The scope of this paper is that the baseline precipitation scenarios simulated here can be used as realistic inputs into hydrological models for applications such as the optimal design of storm-water management infrastructure, especially green roofs. Although only purely temporal simulations are considered, this approach could possibly be generalized to space–time as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To date, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have been successfully applied to a key problem in hydrology: the prediction of runoff. Unlike traditional conceptual models, LSTM models are built on concepts that avoid the need for our knowledge of hydrology to be formally encoded into the model. The question, then, is how we can still make use of our domain knowledge and traditional practices, not to build the LSTM models themselves, as we do for conceptual models, but to use them more effectively. In the present paper, we adopt this approach, investigating how we can use information concerning the hydrologic characteristics of catchments for LSTM runoff models. In this first application of LSTM in a French context, we use 361 gauged catchments with very diverse hydrologic conditions from across France. The catchments have long time series of at least 30 years. Our main directions for investigation include (a) the relationship between LSTM performance and the length of the LSTM input sequence within different hydrologic regimes, (b) the importance of the hydrologic homogeneity of catchments when training LSTMs on a group of catchments, and (c) the interconnected influence of the local tuning of the two important LSTM hyperparameters, namely the length of the input sequence and the hidden unit size, on the performance of group-trained LSTMs. We present a classification built on three indices taken from the runoff, precipitation, and temperature regimes. We use this classification as our measure of homogeneity: catchments within the same regime are assumed to be hydrologically homogeneous. We train LSTMs on individual catchments (local-level training), on catchments within the same regime (regime-level training), and on the entire sample (national-level training). We benchmark local LSTMs using the GR4J conceptual model, which is able to represent the water gains/losses in a catchment. We show that LSTM performance has the highest sensitivity to the length of the input sequence in the Uniform and Nival regimes, where the dominant hydrologic process of the regime has clear long-term dynamics; thus, long input sequences should be chosen in these cases. In other regimes, this level of sensitivity is not found. Moreover, in some regimes, almost no sensitivity is observed. Therefore, the size of the input sequence in these regimes does not need to be large. Overall, our homogeneous regime-level training slightly outperforms our heterogeneous national-level training. This shows that the same level of data adequacy with respect to the complexity of representation(s) to be learned is achieved in both levels of training. We do not, however, exclude a potential role of the regime-informed property of our national LSTMs, which use previous classification variables as static attributes. Last but not least, we demonstrate that the local selection of the two important LSTM hyperparameters (the length of the input sequence and the hidden unit size) combined with national-level training can lead to the best runoff prediction performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of Eucalyptus plantations on water balance is thought to be more severe than for commercial alternatives such as Pinus species. Although this perception is firmly entrenched, even in the scientific community, only four direct comparisons of the effect on the water balance of a Eucalyptus species and a commercial alternative have been published. One of these, from South Africa, showed that Eucalyptus grandis caused a larger and more rapid reduction in streamflow than Pinus patula. The other three, one in South Australia and two in Chile, did not find any significant difference between the annual evapotranspiration of E. globulus and P. radiata after canopy closure. While direct comparisons are few, there are at least 57 published estimates of annual evapotranspiration of either the Eucalyptus or Pinus species. This paper presents a meta-analysis of these published data. Zhang et al. (2004) fitted a relationship between the vegetation evaporation efficiency and the climate wetness index to published data from catchment studies and proposed this approach for comparing land uses. We fitted this model to the published data for Eucalyptus and Pinus and found that the single parameter of this model did not differ significantly between the two genera (p=0.48). This was also the case for all parameters of an exponential relationship between evapotranspiration and rainfall (p=0.589) and a linear relationship between the vegetation evaporation index and rainfall (p=0.155). These results provide strong evidence that, for a given climate wetness index, the two genera have similar annual water use. The residuals compared to the model of Zhang et al. (2004) were significantly correlated with soil depth for Eucalyptus, but this was not the case for Pinus. For Eucalyptus, the model overestimates the vegetation evaporation efficiency on deep soils and underestimates the vegetation evaporation efficiency on shallow soils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The "Digital Earth" (DE) metaphor is very useful for both end users and hydrological modelers (i.e., the coders). In this opinion paper, we analyze different categories of models with the view of making them part of Digital eARth Twin Hydrology systems (DARTHs). We stress the idea that DARTHs are not models, rather they are an appropriate infrastructure that hosts (certain types of) models and provides some basic services for connecting to input data. We also argue that a modeling-by-component strategy is the right one for accomplishing the requirements of the DE. Five technological steps are envisioned to move from the current state of the art of modeling. In step 1, models are decomposed into interacting modules with, for instance, the agnostic parts dealing with inputs and outputs separated from the model-specific parts that contain the algorithms. In steps 2 to 4, the appropriate software layers are added to gain transparent model execution in the cloud, independently of the hardware and the operating system of computer, without human intervention. Finally, step 5 allows models to be selected as if they were interchangeable with others without giving deceptive answers. This step includes the use of hypothesis testing, the inclusion of error of estimates, the adoption of literate programming and guidelines to obtain informative clean code. The urgency for DARTHs to be open source is supported here in light of the open-science movement and its ideas. Therefore, it is argued that DARTHs must promote a new participatory way of performing hydrological science, in which researchers can contribute cooperatively to characterize and control model outcomes in various territories. Finally, three enabling technologies are also discussed in the context of DARTHs – Earth observations (EOs), high-performance computing (HPC) and machine learning (ML) – as well as how these technologies can be integrated in the overall system to both boost the research activity of scientists and generate knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep learning techniques have been increasingly used in flood management to overcome the limitations of accurate, yet slow, numerical models and to improve the results of traditional methods for flood mapping. In this paper, we review 58 recent publications to outline the state of the art of the field, identify knowledge gaps, and propose future research directions. The review focuses on the type of deep learning models used for various flood mapping applications, the flood types considered, the spatial scale of the studied events, and the data used for model development. The results show that models based on convolutional layers are usually more accurate, as they leverage inductive biases to better process the spatial characteristics of the flooding events. Models based on fully connected layers, instead, provide accurate results when coupled with other statistical models. Deep learning models showed increased accuracy when compared to traditional approaches and increased speed when compared to numerical methods. While there exist several applications in flood susceptibility, inundation, and hazard mapping, more work is needed to understand how deep learning can assist in real-time flood warning during an emergency and how it can be employed to estimate flood risk. A major challenge lies in developing deep learning models that can generalize to unseen case studies. Furthermore, all reviewed models and their outputs are deterministic, with limited considerations for uncertainties in outcomes and probabilistic predictions. The authors argue that these identified gaps can be addressed by exploiting recent fundamental advancements in deep learning or by taking inspiration from developments in other applied areas. Models based on graph neural networks and neural operators can work with arbitrarily structured data and thus should be capable of generalizing across different case studies and could account for complex interactions with the natural and built environment. Physics-based deep learning can be used to preserve the underlying physical equations resulting in more reliable speed-up alternatives for numerical models. Similarly, probabilistic models can be built by resorting to deep Gaussian processes or Bayesian neural networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Real-time operational flood forecasting most often concentrates on issuing streamflow predictions at specific points along the rivers of a watershed. However, we are now witnessing an increasing number of studies aimed at also including flood mapping as part of the forecasting system. While this additional new information (flood extent, depth, velocity, etc.) can potentially be useful for decision-makers, it could also be overwhelming. This is especially true for probabilistic and ensemble forecasting systems. While ensemble streamflow forecasts for a given point in space can be visualized relatively easily, the visualization and communication of probabilistic forecasts for water depth and extent pose additional challenges. Confusion typically arises from too much information, counterintuitive interpretation, or simply too much complexity in the representation of the forecast. The communication and visualization of probabilistic streamflow forecasts has been studied in the past, but this is not the case for the probabilistic flood forecast map, which is still an emerging product. In this paper, we synthesize the results of a large-scale survey (28 government representatives, 52 municipalities, 9 organizations, and 38 citizens and farmers, for a total of 140 people) regarding the users' preferences in terms of visualizing probabilistic flood forecasts over an entire river reach. The survey was performed through interviews, during which the interviewees were asked about their needs in terms of hydrological forecasting. We also presented the interviewees with four prototypes representing alternative visualizations of the same probabilistic forecast in order to understand their preferences in terms of colour maps, wording, and the representation of uncertainty. Our results highlight several issues related to the understanding of probabilities in the specific context of visualizing forecasted flood maps. We propose several suggestions for visualizing probabilistic flood maps and also describe potential adaptations for different categories of end users. This study is the first to investigate the visualization of probabilistic flood maps, which are gaining popularity. Given that the interview questions were not tied to a specific geographical location, our findings are applicable outside of the study area and, therefore, to other operational centres interested in providing probabilistic flood forecast maps to decision-making organizations and citizens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Media such as television, newspapers and social media play a key role in the communication between scientists and the general public. Communicating your science via the media can be positive and rewarding by providing the inherent joy of sharing your knowledge with a broader audience, promoting science as a fundamental part of culture and society, impacting decision- and policy-makers, and giving you a greater recognition by institutions, colleagues and funders. However, the interaction between scientists and journalists is not always straightforward. For instance, scientists may not always be able to translate their work into a compelling story, and journalists may sometimes misinterpret scientific output. In this paper, we present insights from hydrologists and journalists discussing the advantages and benefits as well as the potential pitfalls and aftermath of science--media interaction. As we perceive interacting with the media as a rewarding and essential part of our work, we aim to encourage scientists to participate in the diverse and evolving media landscape. With this paper, we call on the scientific community to support scientists who actively contribute to a fruitful science--media relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaporation from open water is among the most rigorously studied problems in hydrology. Robert E. Horton, unbeknownst to most investigators on the subject, studied it in great detail by conducting experiments and heuristically relating his observations to physical laws. His work furthered known theories of lake evaporation, but it appears that it was dismissed as simply empirical. This is unfortunate because Horton's century-old insights on the topic, which we summarize here, seem relevant for contemporary climate-change-era problems. In rediscovering his overlooked lake evaporation works, in this paper we (1) examine several of his publications in the period 1915–1944 and identify his theory sources for evaporation physics among scientists of the late 1800s, (2) illustrate his lake evaporation formulae, which require several equations, tables, thresholds, and conditions based on physical factors and assumptions, and (3) assess his evaporation results over the continental U.S. and analyze the performance of his formula in a subarctic Canadian catchment by comparing it with five other calibrated (aerodynamic and mass transfer) evaporation formulae of varying complexity. We find that Horton's method, due to its unique variable vapor pressure deficit (VVPD) term, outperforms all other methods by ∼3 %–15 % of R2 consistently across timescales (days to months) and at an order of magnitude higher at subdaily scales (we assessed up to 30 min). Surprisingly, when his method uses input vapor pressure disaggregated from reanalysis data, it still outperforms other methods which use local measurements. This indicates that the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) term currently used in all other evaporation methods is not as good an independent control for lake evaporation as Horton's VVPD. Therefore, Horton's evaporation formula is held to be a major improvement in lake evaporation theory which, in part, may (A) supplant or improve existing evaporation formulae, including the aerodynamic part of the combination (Penman) method, (B) point to new directions in lake evaporation physics, as it leads to a "constant" and a nondimensional ratio (the former is due to Horton, John Dalton (1802), and Gustav Schübler (1831) and the latter to Jožef Štefan (1881) and Horton), and (C) offer better insights behind the physics of the evaporation paradox (i.e., globally, decreasing trends in pan evaporation are unanimously observed, while the opposite is expected due to global warming). Curiously, Horton's rare observations of convective vapor plumes from lakes may also help to explain the mythical origins of the Greek deity Venus and the dancing Nereids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The young water fraction (Fyw*), defined as the fraction of catchment outflow with transit times of less than 2–3 months, is increasingly used in hydrological studies that exploit the potential of isotope tracers. The use of this new metric in catchment intercomparison studies is helpful to understand and conceptualize the relevant processes controlling catchment functioning. Previous studies have shown surprising evidence that mountainous catchments worldwide yield low Fyw*. These low values have been partially explained by isolated hydrological processes, including deep vertical infiltration and long groundwater flow paths. However, a thorough framework illustrating the relevant mechanisms leading to a low Fyw* in mountainous catchments is missing. The main aim of this paper is to give an overview of what drives Fyw* variations according to elevation, thus clarifying why it generally decreases at high elevation. For this purpose, we assembled a data set of 27 study catchments, located in both Switzerland and Italy, for which we calculate Fyw*. We assume that this decrease can be explained by the groundwater storage potential, quantified by the areal extent of Quaternary deposits over a catchment (Fqd), and the low-flow duration (LFD) throughout the period of isotope sampling (PoS). In snow-dominated systems, LFD is strictly related to the snowpack persistence, quantified through the mean fractional snow cover area (FSCA). The drivers are related to the catchment storage contribution to the stream that we quantify by applying a cutting-edge baseflow separation method to the discharge time series of the study sites and by estimating the mean baseflow fraction (Fbf) over the PoS. Our results suggest that Quaternary deposits could play a role in modulating Fyw* elevation gradients via their capacity to store groundwater, but subsequent confirmation with further, more detailed geological information is necessary. LFD indicates the proportion of PoS in which the stream is sustained and dominated by stored water coming from the catchment storage. Accordingly, our results reveal that the increase of LFD at high elevations, to a large extent driven by the persistence of winter snowpacks and the simultaneous lack of a liquid water input to the catchments, results in lower Fyw*. In our data set, Fbf reveals a strong complementarity with Fyw* , suggesting that the latter could be estimated as Fyw*≃1-Fbf for catchments without stable water isotope measurements. As a conclusion, we develop a perceptual model that integrates all the results of our analysis into a framework for how hydrological processes control Fyw* according to elevation. This lays the foundations for an improvement of the theory-driven models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately predicting the seasonal streamflow supply (SSS), i.e., the inflow into a reservoir accumulated during the snowmelt season (April to August), is critical to operating hydroelectric dams and avoiding hydrology-related hazard. Such forecasts generally involve numerical models that simulate the hydrological evolution of a basin. The operational department of the French electric company Electricité de France (EDF) implements a semi-distributed model and has carried out such forecasts for several decades on about 50 basins. However, both scarce observation data and oversimplified physics representation may lead to significant forecast errors. Data assimilation has been shown to be beneficial for improving predictions in various hydrological applications, yet very few have addressed the seasonal streamflow supply prediction problem. More specifically, the assimilation of snow observations, though available in various forms, has been rarely studied, despite the possible sensitivity of the streamflow supply to snow stock. This is the goal of the present paper. In three mountainous basins, a series of four ensemble data assimilation experiments – assimilating (i) the streamflow (Q) alone, (ii) Q and fractional snow cover (FSC) data, (iii) Q and local cosmic ray snow sensor (CRS) data and (iv) all the data combined – is compared to the climatologic ensemble and an ensemble of free simulations. The experiments compare the accuracy of the estimated streamflows during the reanalysis (or assimilation) period September to March, during the forecast period April to August, and the SSS estimation. The results show that Q assimilation notably improves streamflow estimations during both reanalysis and the forecast period. Also, the additional combination of CRS and FSC data to the assimilation further ameliorates the SSS prediction in two of the three basins. In the last basin, the experiments highlight a poor representativity of the CRS observations during some years and reveal the need for an enhanced observation system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the question of how the interpolation of precipitation in space by using various spatial gauge densities affects the rainfall–runoff model discharge if all other input variables are kept constant is investigated. The main focus was on the peak flows. This was done by using a physically based model as the reference with a reconstructed spatially variable precipitation model and a conceptual model calibrated to match the reference model's output as closely as possible. Both models were run with distributed and lumped inputs. Results showed that all considered interpolation methods resulted in the underestimation of the total precipitation volume and that the underestimation was directly proportional to the precipitation amount. More importantly, the underestimation of peaks was very severe for low observation densities and disappeared only for very high-density precipitation observation networks. This result was confirmed by using observed precipitation with different observation densities. Model runoffs showed worse performance for their highest discharges. Using lumped inputs for the models showed deteriorating performance for peak flows as well, even when using simulated precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy and water vapor exchange between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer plays a critical role in regional climate simulations. This paper implemented a hybrid data assimilation and machine learning framework (DA-ML method) into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to optimize surface soil and vegetation conditions. The hybrid method can integrate remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI), multi-source soil moisture (SM) observations, and land surface models (LSMs) to accurately describe regional climate and land–atmosphere interactions. The performance of the hybrid method on the regional climate was evaluated in the Heihe River basin (HRB), the second-largest endorheic river basin in Northwest China. The results show that the estimated sensible (H) and latent heat (LE) fluxes from the WRF (DA-ML) model agree well with the large aperture scintillometer (LAS) observations. Compared to the WRF (open loop – OL), the WRF (DA-ML) model improved the estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) and generated a spatial distribution consistent with the ML-based watershed ET (ETMap). The proposed WRF (DA-ML) method effectively reduces air warming and drying biases in simulations, particularly in the oasis region. The estimated air temperature and specific humidity from WRF (DA-ML) agree well with the observations. In addition, this method can simulate more realistic oasis–desert boundaries, including wetting and cooling effects and wind shield effects within the oasis. The oasis–desert interactions can transfer water vapor to the surrounding desert in the lower atmosphere. In contrast, the dry and hot air over the desert is transferred to the oasis from the upper atmosphere. The results show that the integration of LAI and SM will induce water vapor intensification and promote precipitation in the upstream of the HRB, particularly on windward slopes. In general, the proposed WRF (DA-ML) model can improve climate modeling by implementing detailed land characterization information in basins with complex underlying surfaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For modeling flow and transport processes in the soil–plant–atmosphere system, knowledge of the unsaturated hydraulic properties in functional form is mandatory. While much data are available for the water retention function, the hydraulic conductivity function often needs to be predicted. The classical approach is to predict the relative conductivity from the retention function and scale it with the measured saturated conductivity, Ks. In this paper we highlight the shortcomings of this approach, namely, that measured Ks values are often highly uncertain and biased, resulting in poor predictions of the unsaturated conductivity function. We propose to reformulate the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity function by replacing the soil-specific Ks as a scaling factor with a generally applicable effective saturated tortuosity parameter τs and predicting total conductivity using only the water retention curve. Using four different unimodal expressions for the water retention curve, a soil-independent general value for τs was derived by fitting the new formulation to 12 data sets containing the relevant information. τs was found to be approximately 0.1. Testing of the new prediction scheme with independent data showed a mean error between the fully predicted conductivity functions and measured data of less than half an order of magnitude. The new scheme can be used when insufficient or no conductivity data are available. The model also helps to predict the saturated conductivity of the soil matrix alone and thus to distinguish between the macropore conductivity and the soil matrix conductivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting major floods during extreme rainfall events remains an important challenge. Rapid changes in flows over short timescales, combined with multiple sources of model error, makes it difficult to accurately simulate intense floods. This study presents a general data assimilation framework that aims to improve flood predictions in channel routing models. Hurricane Florence, which caused catastrophic flooding and damages in the Carolinas in September 2018, is used as a case study. The National Water Model (NWM) configuration of the WRF-Hydro modeling framework is interfaced with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts and analyses. Instantaneous streamflow observations from 107 United States Geological Survey (USGS) gauges are assimilated for a period of 1 month. The data assimilation (DA) system developed in this paper explores two novel contributions, namely (1) along-the-stream (ATS) covariance localization and (2) spatially and temporally varying adaptive covariance inflation. ATS localization aims to mitigate not only spurious correlations, due to limited ensemble size, but also physically incorrect correlations between unconnected and indirectly connected state variables in the river network. We demonstrate that ATS localization provides improved information propagation during the model update. Adaptive prior inflation is used to tackle errors in the prior, including large model biases which often occur in flooding situations. Analysis errors incurred during the update are addressed using posterior inflation. Results show that ATS localization is a crucial ingredient of our hydrologic DA system, providing at least 40 % more accurate (root mean square error) streamflow estimates than regular, Euclidean distance-based localization. An assessment of hydrographs indicates that adaptive inflation is extremely useful and perhaps indispensable for improving the forecast skill during flooding events with significant model errors. We argue that adaptive prior inflation is able to serve as a vigorous bias correction scheme which varies both spatially and temporally. Major improvements over the model's severely underestimated streamflow estimates are suggested along the Pee Dee River in South Carolina, and many other locations in the domain, where inflation is able to avoid filter divergence and, thereby, assimilate significantly more observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While conflict-and-cooperation phenomena in transboundary basins have been widely studied, much less work has been devoted to representing the process interactions in a quantitative way. This paper identifies the main factors in the riparian countries' willingness to cooperate in the Eastern Nile River basin, involving Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, from 1983 to 2016. We propose a quantitative model of the willingness to cooperate at the national and river basin scales. Our results suggest that relative political stability and foreign direct investment can explain Ethiopia's decreasing willingness to cooperate between 2009 and 2016. Further, we show that the 2008 food crisis may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate with Ethiopia. Long-term lack of trust among the riparian countries may have reduced basin-wide cooperation. While the proposed model has some limitations regarding model assumptions and parameters, it does provide a quantitative representation of the evolution of cooperation pathways among the riparian countries, which can be used to explore the effects of changes in future dam operation and other management decisions on the emergence of conflict and cooperation in the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Computational simulators of complex physical processes, such as inundations, require a robust characterization of the uncertainties involved to be useful for flood hazard and risk analysis. While flood extent data, as obtained from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery, have become widely available, no methodologies have been implemented that can consistently assimilate this information source into fully probabilistic estimations of the model parameters, model structural deficiencies, and model predictions. This paper proposes a fully Bayesian framework to calibrate a 2D physics-based inundation model using a single observation of flood extent, explicitly including uncertainty in the floodplain and channel roughness parameters, simulator structural deficiencies, and observation errors. The proposed approach is compared to the current state-of-practice generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework for calibration and with a simpler Bayesian model. We found that discrepancies between the computational simulator output and the flood extent observation are spatially correlated, and calibration models that do not account for this, such as GLUE, may consistently mispredict flooding over large regions. The added structural deficiency term succeeds in capturing and correcting for this spatial behavior, improving the rate of correctly predicted pixels. We also found that binary data do not have information on the magnitude of the observed process (e.g., flood depths), raising issues in the identifiability of the roughness parameters, and the additive terms of structural deficiency and observation errors. The proposed methodology, while computationally challenging, is proven to perform better than existing techniques. It also has the potential to consistently combine observed flood extent data with other data such as sensor information and crowdsourced data, something which is not currently possible using GLUE calibration framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new theoretical approach to estimate the contribution of distant areas to the measurement signal of cosmic-ray neutron detectors for snow and soil moisture monitoring. The algorithm is based on the local neutron production and the transport mechanism, given by the neutron–moisture relationship and the radial intensity function, respectively. The purely analytical approach has been validated with physics-based neutron transport simulations for heterogeneous soil moisture patterns, exemplary landscape features, and remote fields at a distance. We found that the method provides good approximations of simulated signal contributions in patchy soils with typical deviations of less than 1 %. Moreover, implications of this concept have been investigated for the neutron–moisture relationship, where the signal contribution of an area has the potential to explain deviating shapes of this curve that are often reported in the literature. Finally, the method has been used to develop a new practical footprint definition to express whether or not a distant area's soil moisture change is actually detectable in terms of measurement precision. The presented concepts answer long-lasting questions about the influence of distant landscape structures in the integral footprint of the sensor without the need for computationally expensive simulations. The new insights are highly relevant to support signal interpretation, data harmonization, and sensor calibration and will be particularly useful for sensors positioned in complex terrain or on agriculturally managed sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In seasonal climates with a warm and a cold season, low flows are generated by different processes so that the annual extreme series will be a mixture of summer and winter low-flow events. This leads to a violation of the homogeneity assumption for all statistics derived from the annual series and gives rise to inaccurate conclusions. In this first part of a two-paper series, a mixed distribution approach to perform frequency analysis in catchments with mixed low-flow regimes is proposed. We formulate the theoretical basis of the mixed distribution approach for the lower extremes based on annual minima series. The main strength of the model is that it allows the user to estimate return periods of summer low flows, winter low flows, and annual return periods in a theoretically sound and consistent way. Using archetypal examples, we show how the model behaves for a range of low-flow regimes, from distinct winter and summer regimes to mixed regimes where seasonal occurrence in summer and winter is equally likely. The examples show in a qualitative way the loss in accuracy one has to expect with conventional extreme value statistics performed with the annual extremes series. The model is then applied to a comprehensive Austrian data set to quantify the expected gain of using the mixed distribution approach compared to conventional frequency analysis. Results indicate that the gain of using a mixed distribution approach is indeed large. On average, the relative deviation is 21 %, 39 %, and 63 % when estimating the low flow with a 20-, 50-, and 100-year return period. For the 100-year event, 75 % of stations show a performance gain of >10 %, 41 % of stations > 50 %, and 25 % of stations > 80.6 %. This points to a broad relevance of the approach that goes beyond highly mixed seasonal regimes to include the strongly seasonal ones. We finally correlate the performance gain with seasonality indices in order to show the expected gain conditional to the strength of seasonality expressed by the ratio of average summer and winter low flow seasonality ratio (SR). For the 100-year event, the expected gain is about 70 % for SR=1.0 , 20 % for SR=1.5 , and 10 % for SR=2.0. The performance gain is further allocated to the spatial patterns of SR in the study area. The results suggest that the mixed estimator is relevant not only for mountain forelands but to a much wider range of catchment typologies. The mixed distribution approach provides one consistent approach for summer, winter, and annual probabilities and should be used by default in seasonal climates with a cold winter season where summer and winter low flows can occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we implement a degree day snowmelt and glacier melt model in the Dynamic fluxEs and ConnectIvity for Predictions of HydRology (DECIPHeR) model. The purpose is to develop a hydrological model that can be applied to large glaciated and snow-fed catchments yet is computationally efficient enough to include model uncertainty in streamflow predictions. The model is evaluated by simulating monthly discharge at six gauging stations in the Naryn River catchment (57 833 km 2) in central Asia over the period 1951 to a variable end date between 1980 and 1995 depending on the availability of discharge observations. The spatial distribution of simulated snow cover is validated against MODIS weekly snow extent for the years 2001–2007. Discharge is calibrated by selecting parameter sets using Latin hypercube sampling and assessing the model performance using six evaluation metrics. The model shows good performance in simulating monthly discharge for the calibration period (NSE is 0.74

Recursive digital filtering of hydrographs is a widely used method to identify streamflow components, which react to precipitation with varying degrees of attenuation and delay. In this context, a distinction is often made between physically based and non-physically based algorithms. A well-known example of a physically based algorithm is that of Furey and Gupta (2001). In this paper, it is contrasted with the widely used algorithm of Eckhardt (2005). This algorithm is often considered merely a non-physically based low-pass filter. However, the comparison shows that both algorithms largely agree. The algorithm of Eckhardt (2005) differs from the algorithm of Furey and Gupta (2001) only in the time delay assumed between precipitation and the exfiltration of baseflow into surface waters and in the fact that two parameters are combined into one, BFImax. This parameter can thus be interpreted physically, and an approach for its calculation emerges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]