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Abstract Background Increasing feminization of medical professions is well-acknowledged. However, this does not always equate to equitable representation of women within medicine, regarding their socio-demographic indicators, regions, sectors and fields of practice. Thus, this paper quantifies the gap in supply of female medical doctors in relation to demand, towards reaching different gender equity scenarios. Methods A retrospective review of the Health Professions Council of South Africa’s (HPCSA) database on registered medical doctors (medical practitioners and medical specialists) from 2002 until 2019 was utilized as an indicator of supply. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize data, and inferential statistics (considering a significance level of 0.05) were utilized to determine the association between the number of male and female doctors, disaggregated by demographic variables. We forecasted future gaps of South African male and female doctors up to 2030, based on maintaining the current male-to-female ratio and attaining an equitable ratio of 1:1. Results While the ratio of female doctors per 10 000 population has increased between 2000 and 2019, from 1.2 to 3.2, it remains substantially lower than the comparative rate for male doctors per 10 000 population which increased from 3.5 in 2000 to 4.7 in 2019. Men continue to dominate the medical profession in 2019, representing 59.4% (27,579) of medical doctors registered with the HPCSA with females representing 40.6% (18,841), resulting in a male-to-female ratio of 1:0.7. Female doctors from the Black population group have constantly grown in the medical workforce from 4.4% (2000), to 12.5% (2019). There would be a deficit of 2242 female doctors by 2030 to achieve a 1:1 ratio between male and female medical doctors. An independent-samples t-test revealed that there was a significant difference in the number of male and female doctors. The Kruskal–Wallis test indicated that there was a sustained significant difference in terms of the number of male and female doctors by population groups and geographical distribution. Conclusions Based on the investigation, we propose that HRH planning incorporate forecasting methodologies towards reaching gender equity targets to inform planning for production of healthcare workers.

Background: Increasing feminization of medical professions is well-acknowledged. However, this does not always equate to equitable representation of women within medicine, regarding their socio-demographic indicators, regions, sectors and fields of practice. Thus, this paper quantifies the gap in supply of female medical doctors in relation to demand, towards reaching different gender equity scenarios.Methods: A retrospective review of the Health Professions Council of South Africa's (HPCSA) database on registered medical doctors (medical practitioners and medical specialists) from 2002 until 2019 was utilized as an indicator of supply. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize data, and inferential statistics (considering a significance level of 0.05) were utilized to determine the association between the number of male and female doctors, disaggregated by demographic variables. We forecasted future gaps of South African male and female doctors up to 2030, based on maintaining the current male-to-female ratio and attaining an equitable ratio of 1:1.Results: While the ratio of female doctors per 10 000 population has increased between 2000 and 2019, from 1.2 to 3.2, it remains substantially lower than the comparative rate for male doctors per 10 000 population which increased from 3.5 in 2000 to 4.7 in 2019. Men continue to dominate the medical profession in 2019, representing 59.4% (27,579) of medical doctors registered with the HPCSA with females representing 40.6% (18,841), resulting in a male-to-female ratio of 1:0.7. Female doctors from the Black population group have constantly grown in the medical workforce from 4.4% (2000), to 12.5% (2019). There would be a deficit of 2242 female doctors by 2030 to achieve a 1:1 ratio between male and female medical doctors. An independent-samples t-test revealed that there was a significant difference in the number of male and female doctors. The Kruskal-Wallis test indicated that there was a sustained significant difference in terms of the number of male and female doctors by population groups and geographical distribution.Conclusions: Based on the investigation, we propose that HRH planning incorporate forecasting methodologies towards reaching gender equity targets to inform planning for production of healthcare workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background The shortage of a skilled health workforce is a global crisis. International efforts to combat the crisis have shown few benefits; therefore, more country-specific efforts are required. Tanzania adopted health sector reforms in the 1990s to ensure, among other things, availability of an adequate skilled health workforce. Little is documented on how the post-reform training and deployment of medical doctors (MDs) have contributed to resolving Tanzania’s shortage of doctors. The study aims to assess achievements in training and deployment of MDs in Tanzania about 20 years since the 1990s health sector reforms. Methods We developed a human resource for health (HRH) conceptual model to study achievements in the training and deployment of MDs by using the concepts of supply and demand. We analysed secondary data to document the number of MDs trained in Tanzania and abroad, and the number of MDs recommended for the health sector from 1992 to 2011. A cross-sectional survey conducted in all regions of the country established the number of MDs available by 2011. Results By 1992, Tanzania had 1265 MDs working in the country. From 1992 to 2010, 2622 MDs graduated both locally and abroad. This translates into 3887 MDs by 2011. Tanzania needs between 3326 and 5535 MDs. Our survey captured 1299 MDs working throughout the country. This number is less than 40% of all MDs trained in and needed for Tanzania by 2011. Maldistribution favouring big cities was evident; the eastern zone with less than 30% of the population hosts more than 50% of all MDs. No information was available on the more than 60% of MDs uncaptured by our survey. Conclusions Two decades after the reforms, the number of MDs trained in Tanzania has increased sevenfold per year. Yet, the number and geographical distribution of MDs practicing in the country has remained the same as before the reforms. HRH planning should consider the three stages of health workforce development conceptualized under the demand and supply model. Auditing and improvement of the HRH database is highly recommended in dealing with Tanzania’s MD crisis.

Background: The shortage of a skilled health workforce is a global crisis. International efforts to combat the crisis have shown few benefits; therefore, more country-specific efforts are required. Tanzania adopted health sector reforms in the 1990s to ensure, among other things, availability of an adequate skilled health workforce. Little is documented on how the post-reform training and deployment of medical doctors (MDs) have contributed to resolving Tanzania's shortage of doctors. The study aims to assess achievements in training and deployment of MDs in Tanzania about 20 years since the 1990s health sector reforms.Methods: We developed a human resource for health (HRH) conceptual model to study achievements in the training and deployment of MDs by using the concepts of supply and demand. We analysed secondary data to document the number of MDs trained in Tanzania and abroad, and the number of MDs recommended for the health sector from 1992 to 2011. A cross-sectional survey conducted in all regions of the country established the number of MDs available by 2011.Results: By 1992, Tanzania had 1265 MDs working in the country. From 1992 to 2010, 2622 MDs graduated both locally and abroad. This translates into 3887 MDs by 2011. Tanzania needs between 3326 and 5535 MDs. Our survey captured 1299 MDs working throughout the country. This number is less than 40% of all MDs trained in and needed for Tanzania by 2011. Maldistribution favouring big cities was evident; the eastern zone with less than 30% of the population hosts more than 50% of all MDs. No information was available on the more than 60% of MDs uncaptured by our survey.Conclusions: Two decades after the reforms, the number of MDs trained in Tanzania has increased sevenfold per year. Yet, the number and geographical distribution of MDs practicing in the country has remained the same as before the reforms. HRH planning should consider the three stages of health workforce development conceptualized under the demand and supply model. Auditing and improvement of the HRH database is highly recommended in dealing with Tanzania's MD crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Migration and ethical recruitment of health care workers is receiving increased attention worldwide. Europe's aging population is creating new opportunities for medical doctors for finding employment in other countries, particularly those of a better standard of living.Methods: We conducted a survey among 1214 medical students in five out of eleven universities in Poland with medical schools in October 2008. A series of statistical tests was applied to analyse the characteristics of potential migrants. Projections were obtained using statistical analyses: descriptive, multifactorial logistic regression and other statistical methods .Results: We can forecast that 26-36% of Polish medical students will emigrate over the next few years; 62% of respondents estimated the likelihood of emigration at 50%. Students in their penultimate year of study declared a stronger desire to migrate than those in the final year. At the same time, many students were optimistic about career opportunities in Poland. Also noted among students were: the decline in interest in leaving among final year students, their moderate elaboration of departure plans, and their generally optimistic views about the opportunities for professional development in Poland.Conclusions: The majority of Polish students see the emigration as a serious alternative to the continuation of their professional training. This trend can pose a serious threat to the Polish health care system, however the observed decline of the interest in leaving among final year students, the moderate involvement in concrete departure plans and the optimistic views about the opportunities for professional development in Poland suggest that the actual scale of brain drain of young Polish doctors due to emigration will be more limited than previously feared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]