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Background In patients with early hepatocellular cancer (HCC) and preserved liver function, the choice between transplantation, resection and ablation and which factors to consider is not obvious and guidelines differ. In this national cohort study, we aimed to compare posttreatment survival in patients fulfilling predefined criteria, and to analyse preoperative risk factors that could influence decision. Methods We used data from HCC-patients registered with primary transplantation, resection or ablation 2008–2016 in the SweLiv-registry. In Child A-subgroups, 18–75 years, we compared survival after transplantation or resection, with different tumour criteria; either corresponding to our transplantation criteria (N = 257) or stricter with single tumours ≤50 mm (N = 159). A subgroup with single tumours ≤30 mm, compared all three treatments (N = 193). Results We included 1022 HCC-patients; transplantation n = 223, resection n = 438, ablation n = 361. In the transplant criteria subgroup, differences in five-year survival, adjusted for age and gender, were not significant, with 71.2% (CI 62.3–81.3) after transplantation (n = 109) and 63.5% (CI 54.9–73.5) after resection (n = 148). Good liver function (Child 5 vs. 6, Albumin ≥36), increased the risk after transplantation, but decreased the risk after resection and ablation. Conclusion Even within Child A, detailed liver function assessment is important before treatment decision, and for stratifying survival comparisons.

Background: Laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy (LDP) is a challenging operation due to technical complexity and tumor-related factors. Aim of this study was to identify preoperative risk factors affecting LDP difficulty. Methods: Consecutive patients who underwent LDP between 2015 and 2018 at San Raffaele Hospital and Policlinico S.Orsola-Malpighi Hospital were enrolled retrospectively. Three variables were used to define surgical difficulty: conversion to open, duration of surgery >3rd quartile and intraoperative blood loss >3rd quartile. The presence of ≥1 of these 3 variables was considered as another measure of difficulty. Results: Overall, 191 patients were included. Conversion to open was required in 25 patients (13%). At multiple regression analysis, tumor proximity to major vessels was the only independent predictor of conversion from laparoscopic to open (p < 0.001). No variables independently predicted an excessive duration of surgery. Male gender (p = 0.033) and increasing parenchymal thickness at resection line (p = 0.018) were independent predictors of excessive blood loss. Increasing parenchymal thickness at resection line (p = 0.014) and tumor proximity to major vessels (p = 0.002) were significant risk factors for the presence of ≥1 outcome of surgical difficulty. Conclusion: Male gender, increasing parenchymal thickness at resection line and tumor proximity to major vessels represent preoperative risk factors of LDP difficulty.

Background Although most conventional risk prediction models have been based on preoperative information, intra- and post-operative events may be more relevant to mortality after surgery. We sought to develop a mortality risk calculator based on real time characteristics associated with hepatectomy. Methods Patients who underwent hepatectomy between 2014 and 2017 were identified in the ACS-NSQIP dataset. Three prediction models (pre-, intra-, post-operative) were developed and validated using perioperative data. Results Among 14,720 patients, 197 (1.3%) experienced 30-day mortality. The predictive ability of the real-time mortality risk calculator was very good based on only preoperative factors (AUC; training cohort: 0.813, validation cohort: 0.731). Incorporating intra-operative variables into the model increased the AUC (training: 0.838, validation: 0.777), while the post-operative model achieved an AUC of 0.922 in the training and 0.885 in the validation cohorts, respectively. While patients with low preoperative risk had only very small fluctuations in the estimated 30-day mortality risk during the intraoperative (Δ0.4%) and postoperative (Δ0.6%) phases, patients who were already deemed high risk preoperatively had additional increased mortality risk based on factors that occurred in the intraoperative (Δ5.4%) and postoperative (Δ9.3%) periods. Conclusion A real-time mortality risk calculator may better help clinicians identify patients at risk of death at the different stages of the surgical episode.

The Risk Analysis Index (RAI) for frailty is a rapid survey for comorbidities and performance status, which predicts mortality after general surgery. We aimed to validate the RAI in predicting outcomes after hepatopancreatobiliary surgery.Associations of RAI, determined in 162 patients prior to undergoing hepatopancreatobiliary surgery, with prospectively collected 30-day post-operative outcomes were analyzed with multivariate logistic and linear regression.Patients (age 62 ± 14, 51% female) had a median RAI of 7, range 0-25. With every unit increase in RAI, length of stay increased by 5% (95% CI: 2-7%), odds of ICU admission increased by 10% (0-20%), ICU length of stay increased by 21% (9-34%), and odds of discharge to a nursing facility increased by 8% (0-17%) (all P 0.05). Particularly in patients who suffered a first post-operative complication, RAI was associated with additional complications (1.6 unit increase in Comprehensive Complication Index per unit increase in RAI, P = 0.002). In a direct comparison in a subset of 74 patients, RAI and the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator performed comparably in predicting outcomes.While RAI and ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator comparatively predicted short-term outcomes after HPB surgery, RAI has been specifically designed to identify frail patients who can potentially benefit from preoperative prehabilitation interventions.

Background Gallbladder cancer (GBC) has a poor prognosis. The aim was to develop and validate a preoperative risk score for incidental gallbladder cancer (IGBC) in patients scheduled for cholecystectomy. Methods Data registered in the nationwide Swedish Registry for Gallstone Surgery (GallRiks) was analyzed, including the derivation cohort (n = 28915, 2007–2014) and the validation cohort (n = 7851, 2014–2016). An additive risk score model based on odds ratio was created. Results The scoring model to predict IGBC includes age, female gender, previous cholecystitis, and either jaundice or acute cholecystitis. The calibration by HL test and discrimination by AUROC was 8.27 (P = 0.291) and 0.76 in the derivation cohort (214 IGBC) and 14.28 (P = 0.027) and 0.79 in the validation cohort (35 IGBC). The scoring system was applied to three risk-groups, based on the risk of having IGBC, eg. the high-risk group (>8 points) included 7878 patients, with 154 observed and 148 expected IGBC cases. Conclusion We present the first risk score model to predict IGBC. The model estimates the expected risk for the individual patient and may help to optimize treatment strategies.