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Background The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate the performance of prognostic survival models for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) when validated in an external dataset. Furthermore, it sought to identify common prognostic factors across models, and assess methodological quality of the studies in which the models were developed. Methods The PRISMA guidelines were followed. External validation studies of prognostic models for patients with iCCA were searched in 5 databases. Model performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration. Results Thirteen external validation studies were identified, validating 18 different prognostic models. The Wang model was the sole model with good performance (C-index above 0.70) for overall survival. This model incorporated tumor size and number, lymph node metastasis, direct invasion into surrounding tissue, vascular invasion, Carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Methodological quality was poor in 11/12 statistical models. The Wang model had the highest score with 13 out of 17 points. Conclusion The Wang model for prognosis after resection of iCCA has good quality and good performance at external validation, while most prognostic models for iCCA have been developed with poor methodological quality and show poor performance at external validation.

Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent complication after liver transplantation. Although numerous risk factors for AKI have been identified, their cumulative impact remains unclear. Our aim was therefore to design a new model to predict post-transplant AKI. Methods Risk analysis was performed in patients undergoing liver transplantation in two centres (n = 1230). A model to predict severe AKI was calculated, based on weight of donor and recipient risk factors in a multivariable regression analysis according to the Framingham risk-scheme. Results Overall, 34% developed severe AKI, including 18% requiring postoperative renal replacement therapy (RRT). Five factors were identified as strongest predictors: donor and recipient BMI, DCD grafts, FFP requirements, and recipient warm ischemia time, leading to a range of 0–25 score points with an AUC of 0.70. Three risk classes were identified: low, intermediate and high-risk. Severe AKI was less frequently observed if recipients with an intermediate or high-risk were treated with a renal-sparing immunosuppression regimen (29 vs. 45%; p = 0.007). Conclusion The AKI Prediction Score is a new instrument to identify recipients at risk for severe post-transplant AKI. This score is readily available at end of the transplant procedure, as a tool to timely decide on the use of kidney-sparing immunosuppression and early RRT.

Background: Although several classifications of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC) include vascular involvement, its prognostic value has not been investigated. Our aim was to assess the prognostic value of unilateral and main/bilateral involvement of the portal vein (PV) and hepatic artery (HA) on imaging in patients with PHC. Methods: All patients with PHC between 2002 and 2014 were included regardless of stage or management. Vascular involvement was defined as apparent tumor contact of at least 180 degrees to the PV or HA on imaging. Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank test was used to compare overall survival (OS) between groups. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Results: In total, 674 patients were included with a median OS of 12.2 (95% CI 10.6-13.7) months. Patients with unilateral PV involvement had a median OS of 13.3 (11.0-15.7) months, compared with 14.7 (11.7-17.6) in patients without PV involvement (p = 0.12). Patients with main/bilateral PV involvement had an inferior median OS of 8.0 (5.4-10.7, p

Background Conditional survival is the life expectancy from a point in time for a patient who has survived a specific period after presentation. The aim of the study was to estimate conditional survival for patients with unresectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma. Methods Patients with unresectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma from two academic hospitals in the Netherlands between 2002 and 2012 were assessed. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to identify risk factors associated with overall survival. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method to evaluate factors associated with overall survival. Results In total, 572 patients were included. Overall survival was 42% at one year and 6% at three years. The conditional chance of surviving three years was 15% at 1 year and increased to 38% at 2 years. Independent poor prognostic factors for overall survival were age ≥65 years, tumor size >3 cm on imaging, bilirubin levels (>250 μmol/L), CA19-9 level at presentation (>1000 U/ml), and suspected distant metastases on imaging. The conditional survival of patients with and without these prognostic factors was comparable after patients survived the first two or more years. Conclusion The conditional chance of surviving for patients with unresectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma increases with time. Poor prognostic factors become less relevant once patients have survived two years.