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Reanalysis of A-bomb survivor data has shown the following: a) in the high-dose (> 1 Gy) subgroups of the life span study cohort of 5-y survivors, there is a significant deficit of individuals who were < 10 y or > 50 y at the time of the bomb; and b) in the cohort on in utero children, there is a significant deficit of individuals who were < 8 wk of fetal age when exposed. This paper discusses how this selection bias has affected the perception of three effects of A-bomb radiation: marrow damage, carcinogenesis, and second-generation effects.

Cancer risk coefficients for ionizing radiation are currently based on the assumption that, after the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, there were no late effects of early selection (survival of the fittest) or acute marrow damage. These negative findings were the result of applying a linear model of relative risk to the deaths of 5-y survivors. By applying a linear-quadratic model to these deaths (i.e., a model with more than one degree of freedom), we have obtained evidence of longstanding competition between selection effects of the early deaths and other radiation effects, and also evidence that late effects of radiation include marrow damage as well as cancer. Consequently, the present method of risk estimation--by linear extrapolation of high dose effects--should no longer be used for estimating the cancer effects of occupational exposures or background radiation.