1. The Pacific Salmon Treaty: A Century of Debate and an Uncertain Future
- Author
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Noakes, Donald J., Fang, Liping, Hipel, Keith W., and Kilgour, D. Marc
- Subjects
Climatic changes -- Economic aspects ,International negotiations -- Analysis ,Pacific salmon -- Environmental aspects ,Pacific salmon -- Economic aspects ,Business ,Treaty Concerning Pacific Salmon, 1985, United States-Canada - Abstract
Byline: Donald J. Noakes (1,2), Liping Fang (2,3), Keith W. Hipel (2), D. Marc Kilgour (4) Keywords: Pacific salmon; fisheries; treaty negotiation; climate change Abstract: Negotiations on a Canada-US Pacific salmon treaty began in 1908 but the first comprehensive treaty was not achieved until 1985. At that time, catches and landed values in the salmon fishery were near record levels and both countries viewed the agreement as a means of enhancing their individual prosperity. After a short period of co-operation, the 1985 treaty was undermined by arguments over catch sharing and the failure to rebuild some important salmon stocks. A revised treaty, agreed upon in 1999, established conservation of salmon as a priority and included a side-payment, in the form of two endowment funds designed in part to appease Canadian concern over catch imbalances. Major shifts in abundances combined with significant reductions in the value of the fishery were key factors in the negotiations. In this paper, we use the graph model for conflict resolution to examine the stability of the revised salmon treaty. Our assessment suggests that the treaty will be stable if the side-payment is maintained or enhanced even if both countries pursue aggressive fishing strategies. If the side-payment is not maintained, then it is likely that all groups will attempt to maximize their catch and Canada will seek a renegotiation of the treaty. Author Affiliation: (1) School of Advanced Technologies and Mathematics, Thompson Rivers University, Kamloops, British Columbia, V2C 5N3, Canada (2) Department of Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1, Canada (3) Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Ryerson University, Toronto, Ontario, M5B 2K3, Canada (4) Department of Mathematics, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3C5, Canada Article History: Registration Date: 15/09/2005 Online Date: 05/01/2006
- Published
- 2005