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Abstract: This introductory paper to the special section of Global Environmental Change entitled “Global transformations, social metabolism and the dynamics of socio-environmental conflicts” argues that the emergence of new global economic centers is inducing a major expansion in the global social metabolism—the flows of energy and materials into the world economy —, a transformation in the systems for the extraction and provision of natural resources, as well as setting the conditions for socio-environmental conflicts at the commodity frontiers, particularly in areas with a dense human occupation of the territory. We point out that we are currently experiencing global transformations that constitute the beginning of a new historical phase of modern capitalism. The aim of the paper is to draw an overall picture of such transformations, to discuss some of their implications for resource-rich countries, particularly in Latin America and Africa, and by doing so to provide an analytical framework that allow us to make explicit the linkages between the different papers that compose the special section. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights • El Nino impacts on six socio-ecological systems are described. • Diverse experiences of 2015–16 El Nino event across these systems. • System resilience shaped by interaction of short and long term processes. • El Nino experiences provide window for analysing long term resilience. Abstract In a context of both long-term climatic changes and short-term climatic shocks, temporal dynamics profoundly influence ecosystems and societies. In low income contexts in the Tropics, where both exposure and vulnerability to climatic fluctuations is high, the frequency, duration, and trends in these fluctuations are important determinants of socio-ecological resilience. In this paper, the dynamics of six diverse socio-ecological systems (SES) across the Tropics – ranging from agricultural and horticultural systems in Africa and Oceania to managed forests in South East Asia and coastal systems in South America – are examined in relation to the 2015–16 El Niño, and the longer context of climatic variability in which this short-term 'event' occurred. In each case, details of the socio-ecological characteristics of the systems and the climate phenomena experienced during the El Niño event are described and reflections on the observed impacts of, and responses to it are presented. Drawing on these cases, we argue that SES resilience (or lack of) is, in part, a product of both long-term historical trends, as well as short-term shocks within this history. Political and economic lock-ins and dependencies, and the memory and social learning that originates from past experience, all contribute to contemporary system resilience. We propose that the experiences of climate shocks can provide a window of insight into future ecosystem responses and, when combined with historical perspectives and learning from multiple contexts and cases, can be an important foundation for efforts to build appropriate long-term resilience strategies to mediate impacts of changing and uncertain climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The light pollution dynamics of African reserves from 1992 to 2018 were quantified. • The impact of human activities on light pollution in protected areas was discussed. • Three patterns of light pollution from protected areas in Africa were proposed. As the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation, the core value of protected areas (PAs) is to maintain an area's natural conditions (both day and night) and to restrict human-caused disturbances to biology and the environment. Although the value of PAs has been universally recognized, light pollution within them is worsening as a result of the widespread use of artificial illumination devices. Previous studies have focused on light pollution in PAs and evaluated light radiation using nighttime light imagery. However, given the scale and span of these studies (national scale and over short periods), PA light pollution research should be advanced further. In this paper, we conducted long-term (1992–2018) monitoring and evaluation of light pollution in African PAs using aligned multi-sensor NTL data. The results showed that 1) Africa PAs were impacted by increasingly severe artificial lights during 1992–2018, with all three light indices showing an accelerating increasing trend. 2) The number of light-polluted PAs also rapidly increased, with more than 80% of PAs experiencing aggravated light pollution as of 2018. Different types of PAs had heterogeneous light pollution, which penetrates indiscriminately into all PA regulation levels. 4) Light pollution in African PAs was divided into three types, including outside invasion, internal sources, and mixed pollution. 5) Human activity intensity surrounding the PAs was highly correlated with light pollution within them, with a maximum effect distance of approximately 245 km. This paper provides new approaches for understanding the patterns of light pollution within PAs, and is a valuable reference for future PA planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examined the relationship between birth weight, precipitation, and temperature in 19 African countries. We matched recorded birth weights from Demographic and Health Surveys covering 1986 through 2010 with gridded monthly precipitation and temperature data derived from satellite and ground-based weather stations. Observed weather patterns during various stages of pregnancy were also used to examine the effect of temperature and precipitation on birth weight outcomes. In our empirical model we allowed the effect of weather factors to vary by the dominant food production strategy (livelihood zone) in a given region as well as by household wealth, mother's education and birth season. This allowed us to determine if certain populations are more or less vulnerable to unexpected weather changes after adjusting for known covariates. Finally we measured effect size by observing differences in birth weight outcomes in women who have one low birth weight experience and at least one healthy birth weight baby. The results indicated that climate does indeed impact birth weight and at a level comparable, in some cases, to the impact of increasing women's education or household electricity status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we examine conditions that underlie vulnerability and resilience possibilities for households and communities that face and respond to climate- and other changes, in nine East and West African countries. We base our analysis on a unique integrated qualitative and quantitative dataset composed of household surveys and village focus group studies carried out across a wide range of environments and agricultural systems. We identify human population growth, commercialization of the economy, and natural resource use policies, in addition to weather, as key drivers of change. We compare the agricultural and livelihood systems of male and female respondents, as well as their productive resources, organization and access to services. Women have less access than men to common property resources, as well as to cash to obtain goods or services. Women control less land than men, the land they control is often of poorer quality, and their tenure is insecure. Women engage in mutual insurance and risk-sharing networks, and benefit from non-agricultural services provided by social support institutions external to the village. Formally registered, public and private external organizations that foster agriculture and livestock production have tremendous anti-women biases, and tend to provide support primarily to men. Policies and strategies are needed to eliminate those prejudices so that men and women increase their resilience and manage well their changing environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Prioritizing the most vulnerable countries is a key goal of global climate change finance. • For the first time, we comprehensively assess whether the biggest climate fund, the GCF, achieves this goal. • Many of the most vulnerable countries have not been able to access GCF funds, particularly LDCs in Africa. • Institutional capacity is a major factor in determining a country's access to funding. • Capacity development and simplified approval tracks need to be strengthened in the emerging climate finance architecture. The evolving architecture of global climate change adaptation finance is shifting towards fund mechanisms with competitive application and allocation principles. At the same time, prioritization of the most vulnerable countries is a key goal within this emerging architecture. The paper analyses whether the Green Climate Fund (GCF), by far the largest climate change fund, has so far delivered on its promise to prioritize the most vulnerable countries. For our analysis, we consider the USD 2.5 billion GCF funding allocated until the end of the first mobilization phase and disaggregate it project-by-project into its mitigation and adaptation related amounts. We then analyze the adaptation flows in terms of the recipient country's level of vulnerability and institutional capacity. We further analyze whether funds are being accessed through independent national entities or international intermediaries and whether recipient countries have developing country priority status. The results show that funds-based adaptation finance creates an ambiguous picture: On the one hand, the GCF is on track in allocating its funds largely to country groups which its statutes aim to prioritize, particularly LDCs, African countries and SIDS. At the same time, the proposal process results in the fact that many countries with the highest climate vulnerability but weak government institutions and fragile state-bureaucracies have missed out and not been able to access project funding, mostly LDCs in Africa and conflict-ridden countries. Further, most countries have not yet been able to access project funds independently through their national entities, limiting direct access and country ownership – the strengthening of which is a major goal of the fund. The findings suggest that simplified approval tracks need to be strengthened in the emerging climate finance architecture so that populations in countries with the lowest institutional capacity but highest vulnerability are not being left behind in the long-run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The phosphorus (P) cycle has been significantly altered by human activities. For this paper, we explored the sustainability of current P flows in terms of resource depletion and the ultimate fate of these flows. The analysis shows that rapid depletion of extractable phosphate rock is not very likely, in the near term. Under best estimates, depletion would be around 20–35%. In worst case scenarios, about 40–60% of the current resource base would be extracted by 2100. At the same time, production will concentrate in Asia, Africa and West Asia, and production costs will likely have increased. As there are no substitutes for phosphorus plant nutrients in agriculture, arguably even partial depletion of P resources may in the long run be relevant for the sustainability of agriculture. Consumption trends lead to large flows of phosphorus to surface water and a considerable build-up of phosphorus in agricultural soils in arable lands. This may allow a reduction in future P fertiliser application rates in crop production. Results also indicate a global depletion of P pools in soils under grassland, which may be a threat to ruminant production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding different adaptive capacities is a prerequisite for targeting interventions to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change. Indicators and indices are common tools in this process, but their construction embodies many uncertainties, not least of which is their scale specificity. This paper describes the development of two empirical adaptive capacity indices for use at different scales of analysis: a national index for cross-country comparison in Africa and a household index for cross-household comparison in a village in Limpopo province, South Africa. Explaining the decisions made at each stage of construction illuminates the degree of uncertainty involved when assessing adaptive capacity, and how this uncertainty is compounded when looking across different scales of analysis. It concludes that the central elements of adaptive capacity, based on institutional collective response and the availability of and access to resources, are common at different scales, although the structure of each index is scale-specific. Hence the findings of these apparently irreconcilable scales of analysis converge to demonstrate points of leverage for policy intervention to raise resilience and the capacity to adapt to the risks posed by climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Infrastructure is essential to meet basic needs but require carbon intensive materials. • I assess the material/carbon impact of reaching in 2030 high access to 5 basic infrastructure. • Global material demand is the lowest for water and the highest for transportation. • Providing high sanitation and transportation access conflicts with low-carbon pathways. Access to infrastructure services is essential to meet human basic needs. However, infrastructure construction requires carbon-intensive materials, first and foremost cement and steel. In this paper, I assess if high level of access to 5 basic infrastructure services – electricity, water, shelter, sanitation and transportation – can be provided at the global scale in 2030 and until 2050 without compromising climate mitigation targets. Following historical patterns, I first quantify the cement and steel requirements in each country associated with providing high access levels. I then estimate the production-based carbon dioxide emissions related to manufacturing the cement and steel needs. To do so, I model influencing factors such as national production technologies mix, trade structure and mitigation actions in the cement and steel industries. Global cumulative material demand (central values) to reach high access level in 2030 is the lowest for water with 8 Gt of cement and 1 Gt of steel and the highest for transportation with 50 Gt of cement and 6 Gt of steel. Most of the cement and steel demand is concentrated in Asia, Middle-East and Africa. I show for all infrastructure services that achieving high access level in 2030 and until 2050 induces cumulative carbon dioxide emissions well below the carbon budgets related to Paris Agreement targets, with central values under baseline scenario from 10 to 53 Gt CO 2 depending on the infrastructure service. However, I find providing high sanitation and transportation access in Middle-East and Africa conflicts with existing low-carbon pathways. This calls for on one side implementing material efficiency and substitution towards less carbon-intensive construction materials, and on the other side strengthening mitigation efforts in wealthiest countries to leave enough 'carbon space' for basic infrastructure development in emerging countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• By 2100, without UHI, over 300 million urban Africans may be exposed to 15-day heat waves >42 °C. • Of those exposed approximately 27% may be sensitive to heat (<5 and >64 years old). • Including UHI could raise exposure to 950 million, with 38.7% projected to be sensitive. • In the worst case scenario ~ 2 billion urban Africans may be exposed to such heat. Urbanization and climate change are among the most important global trends affecting human well-being during the twenty-first century. One region expected to undergo enormous urbanization and be significantly affected by climate change is Africa. Studies already find increases in temperature and high temperature events for the region. How many people will be exposed to heat events in the future remains unclear. This paper attempts to provide a first estimate of the number of African urban residents exposed to very warm 15-day heat events (>42 °C). Using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways framework we estimate the numbers of exposed, sensitive (those younger than 5 and older than 64 years), and those in low-income nations, with gross national products of $4000 ($2005, purchasing power parity), from 2010 to 2100. We examine heat events both with and without urban heat island estimates. Our results suggest that at the low end of the range, under pathways defined as sustainable (SSP 1) and low relative levels of climate change (RCP 2.6) without including the urban heat island effect there will be large populations (>300 million) exposed to very warm heat wave by 2100. Alternatively, by 2100, the high end exposure level is approximately 2.0 billion for SSP 4 under RCP 4.5 where the urban heat island effect is included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper uses a content analysis of the published literature to take stock of current understanding of key social and policy drivers of migration to cities in 11 Asian and African mega-deltas and identifies commonalities and differences among them. The analysis shows that migration to urban centers in mega-deltas is an outcome of many forces: economic policies and incentives, local and destination institutions, government policies to develop small towns, and the geographic concentration of investments. Massive influx of capital to many deltas has transformed the local economic base from a primarily agricultural one to a manufacturing and processing economy. This has created uneven spatial economic development which is the underlying driver of migration to cities in the mega-deltas regardless of geographic context or size. Going forward to 2060, one critical challenge for all the deltas is to increase the labor skill of their workforce and foster technology innovation. Continued economic growth in these regions will require substantial investments in education and capacity building and the ability of urban centers to absorb the migrant labor pool. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]