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2. Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways

Author

Popp, Alexander, Calvin, Katherine, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Havlik, Petr, Humpenöder, Florian, Stehfest, Elke, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Dietrich, Jan Philipp, Doelmann, Jonathan C., Gusti, Mykola, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Kyle, Page, Obersteiner, Michael, Tabeau, Andrzej, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Valin, Hugo, Waldhoff, Stephanie, Weindl, Isabelle, Wise, Marshall, Kriegler, Elmar, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Fricko, Oliver, Riahi, Keywan, and Vuuren, Detlef P. van

Published
2017
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3. Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives

Author

Bauer, Nico, Calvin, Katherine, Emmerling, Johannes, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Hilaire, Jérôme, Eom, Jiyong, Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, Sytze de Boer, Harmen, van den Berg, Maarten, Carrara, Samuel, Daioglou, Vassilis, Drouet, Laurent, Edmonds, James E., Gernaat, David, Havlik, Petr, Johnson, Nils, Klein, David, Kyle, Page, Marangoni, Giacomo, Masui, Toshihiko, Pietzcker, Robert C., Strubegger, Manfred, Wise, Marshall, Riahi, Keywan, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2017
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4. The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century

Author

Fricko, Oliver, Havlik, Petr, Rogelj, Joeri, Klimont, Zbigniew, Gusti, Mykola, Johnson, Nils, Kolp, Peter, Strubegger, Manfred, Valin, Hugo, Amann, Markus, Ermolieva, Tatiana, Forsell, Nicklas, Herrero, Mario, Heyes, Chris, Kindermann, Georg, Krey, Volker, McCollum, David L., Obersteiner, Michael, Pachauri, Shonali, Rao, Shilpa, Schmid, Erwin, Schoepp, Wolfgang, and Riahi, Keywan

Published
2017
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5. Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Author

Rao, Shilpa, Klimont, Zbigniew, Smith, Steven J., Van Dingenen, Rita, Dentener, Frank, Bouwman, Lex, Riahi, Keywan, Amann, Markus, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Calvin, Katherine, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gernaat, David, Havlik, Petr, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Heyes, Chris, Hilaire, Jérôme, Luderer, Gunnar, Masui, Toshihiko, Stehfest, Elke, Strefler, Jessica, van der Sluis, Sietske, and Tavoni, Massimo

Published
2017
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6. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

Author

Riahi, Keywan, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Kriegler, Elmar, Edmonds, Jae, O’Neill, Brian C., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Bauer, Nico, Calvin, Katherine, Dellink, Rob, Fricko, Oliver, Lutz, Wolfgang, Popp, Alexander, Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo, KC, Samir, Leimbach, Marian, Jiang, Leiwen, Kram, Tom, Rao, Shilpa, Emmerling, Johannes, Ebi, Kristie, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Humpenöder, Florian, Da Silva, Lara Aleluia, Smith, Steve, Stehfest, Elke, Bosetti, Valentina, Eom, Jiyong, Gernaat, David, Masui, Toshihiko, Rogelj, Joeri, Strefler, Jessica, Drouet, Laurent, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Harmsen, Mathijs, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Baumstark, Lavinia, Doelman, Jonathan C., Kainuma, Mikiko, Klimont, Zbigniew, Marangoni, Giacomo, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Obersteiner, Michael, Tabeau, Andrzej, and Tavoni, Massimo

Published
2017
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11. The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century

Author

O'Neill, Brian C., Kriegler, Elmar, Ebi, Kristie L., Kemp-Benedict, Eric, Riahi, Keywan, Rothman, Dale S., van Ruijven, Bas J., van Vuuren, Detlef P., Birkmann, Joern, Kok, Kasper, Levy, Marc, Solecki, William, and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
Monitoring, Mitigation, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Geography, Planning and Development, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, 01 natural sciences, Scenarios, Taverne, Narratives, Adaptation, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Planning and Development, Global and Planetary Change, Geography, Policy and Law, Ecology, Land use, business.industry, Environmental resource management, PE&RC, Natural resource, Human development (humanity), Management, Bodemgeografie en Landschap, Scholarship, Soil Geography and Landscape, The Conceptual Framework, Shared socioeconomic pathways, business, Futures contract
Abstract

Long-term scenarios play an important role in research on global environmental change. The climate change research community is developing new scenarios integrating future changes in climate and society to investigate climate impacts as well as options for mitigation and adaptation. One component of these new scenarios is a set of alternative futures of societal development known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The conceptual framework for the design and use of the SSPs calls for the development of global pathways describing the future evolution of key aspects of society that would together imply a range of challenges for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Here we present one component of these pathways: the SSP narratives, a set of five qualitative descriptions of future changes in demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, and environment and natural resources. We describe the methods used to develop the narratives as well as how these pathways are hypothesized to produce particular combinations of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Development of the narratives drew on expert opinion to (1) identify key determinants of these challenges that were essential to incorporate in the narratives and (2) combine these elements in the narratives in a manner consistent with scholarship on their inter-relationships. The narratives are intended as a description of plausible future conditions at the level of large world regions that can serve as a basis for integrated scenarios of emissions and land use, as well as climate impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses.

Published
2017

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