Search

ABSTRACT Aim This paper describes a set of integrative scenarios developed in the ALARM (Assessing LArge-scale environmental Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods) project. The ultimate aim of ALARM was to develop and test methods and protocols for the assessment of large-scale environmental risks to biodiversity and to evaluate mitigation options. Scenarios provide a tool for exploring such risks and the policy options to mitigate them; therefore they play a central role within the ALARM project. Methods Three integrative scenarios (liberalization, business as might be usual, sustainability) were developed and illustrated using the econometric model described in a subsequent paper. They are contextualized with projections from climate models and provide the input for model-based assessments of biodiversity trends. Additionally, three shock scenarios were developed (Gulf Stream collapse, peak oil, pandemic) to demonstrate the limits of linear extrapolation. As these extend beyond model capabilities, they are discussed semi-quantitatively based on modelling insights. Results Although the policy impacts on biodiversity are different for different pressures, biomes and species groups, some general trends could be identified. An extension of current EU policies will act as a brake on current trends by slowing down the loss of biodiversity in many cases and in most biomes, but it will be capable of neither halting nor of reversing the loss. Liberalization has the effect of accelerating biodiversity loss across the board, with few exceptions. A coherent sustainability scenario is clearly the most effective at preserving biodiversity, but the variant tested here still does not halt losses in all cases. Main conclusions Current EU policies for protecting biodiversity appear to be insufficient to reverse ongoing losses. Coherent sustainability strategies are effective at conserving biodiversity, but in order to assess losses and then reverse them, measures would need to be introduced that extend beyond the steps tested in the ALARM sustainability scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a probabilistic method of pollen spectra analysis. The method relies on a pollen taxon characterization using biotic and abiotic plant attribute modes, and their occurrence in a given pollen spectrum at a specific site. This type of analysis can provide an interpretation, which can lead to the reconstruction of the biome and, to an extent, of the abiotic conditions at the site.The analysis has been carried out at the European scale using data provided by the European Pollen Database for about 1000 sites. This dataset contains about 50,000 pollen spectra from the last 21 ka. In these spectra, each pollen taxon has been characterized by a set of 10 chosen attributes. These have been selected with regard to their relevance in biome reconstruction, but also on the basis of available literature. By using the probability of occurrence of each taxon in a given pollen spectrum, it is possible to calculate an affinity index for the spectrum to the attribute considered. To overcome difficulties caused by pollen identification in low diversified pollen spectra, a co-occurrence concept has been used to give more information.The method has been validated on a set of 1327 modern surface samples by comparing the results to the major climatic and environmental variables that control the distribution of the vegetation. A reconstruction exercise on various characteristics of the plants was then carried out on a 6-ka dataset. This confirmed previous studies by showing a strong dominance of deciduous forest over most of Europe, related to a milder climate than at present in the north and a wetter and colder climate than at present in the south. By analysing the change in pollen/seed dispersion strategies and the light requirement, we show that the history of vegetation dynamics in relation to human influences can be assessed using this method.Our results show that the probabilistic method is an objective tool for pollen assemblage analysis. It allows reconstruction of various characteristics of the vegetation at the continental and global scale for periods and sites with significantly different climate conditions. This method can also be used to compare maps of vegetation attributes for the validation of the new generalized dynamic ecosystems models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate change regulates autumn leaf senescence date (LSD), exhibiting a strong phenological control of plant carbon uptake. Unlike the delaying effect of daily mean temperature (Tmean) on LSD, the impact of warming asymmetry in daytime and nighttime, as evidenced by variations of the diurnal temperature range (DTR), remains elusive. The objectives of this study were to investigate physiological and ecological impacts of DTR on LSD using long‐term in situ observations and to predict the future trends of LSD under warming. Location: Europe. Time period: 1950–2015. Major taxa studied: Plant phenology. Methods: We used partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression and ridge regression to explore the impacts of DTR on LSD. To quantify the importance of potential drivers of LSD, we trained random forest models and applied the SHapley Additive exPlanations method to isolate the marginal contributions of each predictor on LSD. For LSD modelling and projection, we first evaluated two temperature‐driven LSD models [i.e., cooling‐degree‐day (CDD, without DTR effect) and day–night‐temperature CDD (DNCDD, with DTR effect)], then applied them to predict future LSDs. Results: We found that observational increases in Tmean and DTR had contrasting effects on LSD. Increased Tmean delayed the LSD, whereas larger DTR overall had an advancing effect. Considering the DTR effect, the Tmean sensitivity of LSD was 14% lower than presently estimated (2.4 vs. 2.8 days °C−1). Warming asymmetry‐related drought stress and plant functional traits (i.e., plant isohydricity and water‐use efficiency) potentially explained the advancing effect of DTR on LSD. We found that current projections of future LSD are overestimated because the DTR effect is discounted, suggesting the need for an adequate understanding of how plant phenology responds to warming asymmetry. Main conclusions: Our findings highlight the importance of DTR in controlling LSD variations with an advancing‐dominant effect and call for the improvement of phenology modelling incorporating the DTR effect. Given that DTR showed a globally narrowing trend over the last several decades, more efforts are needed to understand the potential ecological impacts of warming asymmetry and vegetation response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The aims of this study were to evaluate the changes in the length of the time period between leaf‐out and flowering across temperate tree species, and associate these changes with potential physiological and environmental drivers to enhance mechanistic insight into these phenomena. Location: Central Europe. Time period: 1980–2016. Major taxa studied: Six temperate woody species. Methods: Statistical analyses were carried out based on long‐term ground observations of both spring leaf‐out and flowering across temperate tree species during 1980–2016, a period characterized by rapid warming. Results: The temperature sensitivity of flowering (−5.4 ± 0.04 days/℃, mean ± SE) was higher than that of leaf‐out (−4.6 ± 0.04 days/℃) across all species, regardless of whether leaf‐out occurred before or after flowering. This study postulates a hypothesis attributing the different temperature sensitivities to different thermal sensitivities, thermal requirements, and photoperiodic controls. Main conclusions: The larger temperature sensitivity of flowering than leaf‐out resulted in an extended time period between flowering and leaf‐out in species that bloom before leafing out, but a shorter time period between these phenophases in species with the opposite strategy. We would like to emphasize the importance of changes in time period between different phenophases, and we recommend conducting experimental research to reveal the underlying mechanisms of plant phenology response to climate change, and to explore its potential ecological implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim This paper identifies socio-economic driving forces of biodiversity change and analyses their political and economic dynamics by modelling socio-economic parts of three scenario storylines developed for the ALARM (assessing large-scale risks for biodiversity with tested methods) project. In the BAMBU (business-as-might-be-usual) scenario policy decisions already made in the European Union (EU) are implemented and enforced, but no additional measures are introduced. The GRAS (growth applied strategy) scenario describes a future world orientated towards economic growth and complete deregulation. And finally, SEDG (sustainable European development goal) is a normative scenario focusing on the achievement of sustainable development. Methods The GINFORS (global inter-industry forecasting system) model is applied to quantify the effects of different sets of policy measures representing the three scenarios. It allows investigation of the inter-relations between socio-economic driving forces and the state of the environment. Results The presented results for the 25 EU countries focus on the following variables: unemployment, material extraction, energy supply and CO2 emissions. The lowest amount of unemployment is in the SEDG scenario, where it steadily decreases from 2005 to 2020. In BAMBU it falls to a level that is also below that of 2005. In GRAS, the number of unemployed people in 2020 is clearly over the value of 2005. The development of total material extraction from 2005 to 2020 is nearly stable in BAMBU, while it clearly increases in GRAS. Only in SEDG is there a reduction in resource use. None of the scenarios achieves a substantial reduction in energy use. However, the development of CO2 emissions shows a decoupling from energy supply. For BAMBU there is a slight decline in CO2 emissions over time, for GRAS they increase but with a slightly smaller growth rate than energy supply. In SEDG the emissions are reduced. The decoupling trends can be explained by a shift to more renewable energy sources in all scenarios, with the highest share in SEDG. Main conclusions The results indicate that a growth-oriented policy design, such as presented in the GRAS scenario, is not compatible with the conservation of biodiversity. Only in the SEDG scenario do the policy measures support the idea of a sustainable development, but in some respects they are still not ambitious enough. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate and land use are key determinants of biodiversity, with past and ongoing changes posing serious threats to global ecosystems. Unlike most other organism groups, plant species can possess dormant life‐history stages such as soil seed banks, which may help plant communities to resist or at least postpone the detrimental impact of global changes. This study investigates the potential for soil seed banks to achieve this. Location: Europe. Time period: 1978–2014. Major taxa studied: Flowering plants. Methods: Using a space‐for‐time/warming approach, we study plant species richness and composition in the herb layer and the soil seed bank in 2,796 community plots from 54 datasets in managed grasslands, forests and intermediate, successional habitats across a climate gradient. Results: Soil seed banks held more species than the herb layer, being compositionally similar across habitats. Species richness was lower in forests and successional habitats compared to grasslands, with annual temperature range more important than mean annual temperature for determining richness. Climate and land‐use effects were generally less pronounced when plant community richness included seed bank species richness, while there was no clear effect of land use and climate on compositional similarity between the seed bank and the herb layer. Main conclusions: High seed bank diversity and compositional similarity between the herb layer and seed bank plant communities may provide a potentially important functional buffer against the impact of ongoing environmental changes on plant communities. This capacity could, however, be threatened by climate warming. Dormant life‐history stages can therefore be important sources of diversity in changing environments, potentially underpinning already observed time‐lags in plant community responses to global change. However, as soil seed banks themselves appear, albeit less, vulnerable to the same changes, their potential to buffer change can only be temporary, and major community shifts may still be expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate change impacts forest functioning and services through two inter‐related effects. First, it impacts tree growth, with effects, for example, on biomass production. Second, climate change also reshuffles community composition, with further effects on forest functioning. However, the relative importance of these two effects has rarely been studied. Here, we developed a new modelling approach to investigate these relative importances for forest productivity. Location: Eleven forest sites in central Europe. Time period: Historical (1990) and end‐of‐21st‐century climate‐like conditions. We simulated 2,000 years of forest dynamics for each set of conditions. Major taxa studied: Twenty‐five common tree species in European temperate forests. Methods: We coupled species distribution models and a forest succession model, working at complementary spatial and temporal scales, to simulate the climatic filtering that shapes potential tree species pools, the biotic filtering that shapes realized communities and the functioning of these realized communities in the long‐term. Results: Under an average temperature increase (relative to 1901–1990) of between 1.5 and 1.7 °C, changes in simulated forest productivity were caused mostly by changes in the growth of persisting tree species. With an average temperature increase of 3.6–4.0 °C, changes in simulated productivity at sites that currently have a mild climate were again caused predominantly by changes in tree species growth. However, at the warmest and coldest sites, changes in productivity were related mostly to shifts in species composition. In general, at the coldest sites, forest productivity is likely to be enhanced by climate change, whereas at the warmest sites the productivity might increase or decrease depending on the future precipitation regime. Main conclusions: A combination of two complementary modelling approaches that address questions at the interface between biogeography, community ecology and ecosystem functioning, reveals that climate change‐driven community reshuffling in the long term might be crucially important for ecosystem functioning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The aim was to decipher Europe‐wide spatio‐temporal patterns of forest growth dynamics and their associations with carbon isotope fractionation processes inferred from tree rings as modulated by climate warming. Location: Europe and North Africa (30‒70° N, 10° W‒35° E). Time period: 1901‒2003. Major taxa studied: Temperate and Euro‐Siberian trees. Methods: We characterize changes in the relationship between tree growth and carbon isotope fractionation over the 20th century using a European network consisting of 20 site chronologies. Using indexed tree‐ring widths (TRWi), we assess shifts in the temporal coherence of radial growth across sites (synchrony) for five forest ecosystems (Atlantic, boreal, cold continental, Mediterranean and temperate). We also examine whether TRWi shows variable coupling with leaf‐level gas exchange, inferred from indexed carbon isotope discrimination of tree‐ring cellulose (Δ13Ci). Results: We find spatial autocorrelation for TRWi and Δ13Ci extending over a maximum of 1,000 km among forest stands. However, growth synchrony is not uniform across Europe, but increases along a latitudinal gradient concurrent with decreasing temperature and evapotranspiration. Latitudinal relationships between TRWi and Δ13Ci (changing from negative to positive southwards) point to drought impairing carbon uptake via stomatal regulation for water saving occurring at forests below 60° N in continental Europe. An increase in forest growth synchrony over the 20th century together with increasingly positive relationships between TRWi and Δ13Ci indicate intensifying impacts of drought on tree performance. These effects are noticeable in drought‐prone biomes (Mediterranean, temperate and cold continental). Main conclusions: At the turn of this century, convergence in growth synchrony across European forest ecosystems is coupled with coordinated warming‐induced effects of drought on leaf physiology and tree growth spreading northwards. Such a tendency towards exacerbated moisture‐sensitive growth and physiology could override positive effects of enhanced leaf intercellular CO2 concentrations, possibly resulting in Europe‐wide declines of forest carbon gain in the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The aim was to assess the sensitivity of butterfly population dynamics to variation in weather conditions across their geographical ranges, relative to sensitivity to density dependence, and determine whether sensitivity is greater towards latitudinal range margins. Location Europe. Time period 1980-2014. Major taxa studied Butterflies. Methods We use long-term (35 years) butterfly monitoring data from > 900 sites, ranging from Finland to Spain, grouping sites into 2° latitudinal bands. For 12 univoltine butterfly species with sufficient data from at least four bands, we construct population growth rate models that include density dependence, temperature and precipitation during distinct life-cycle periods, defined to accommodate regional variation in phenology. We use partial R2 values as indicators of butterfly population dynamics' sensitivity to weather and density dependence, and assess how these vary with latitudinal position within a species' distribution. Results Population growth rates appear uniformly sensitive to density dependence across species' geographical distributions, and sensitivity to density dependence is typically greater than sensitivity to weather. Sensitivity to weather is greatest towards range edges, with symmetry in northern and southern parts of the range. This pattern is not driven by variation in the magnitude of weather variability across the range, topographic heterogeneity, latitudinal range extent or phylogeny. Significant weather variables in population growth rate models appear evenly distributed across the life cycle and across temperature and precipitation, with substantial intraspecific variation across the geographical ranges in the associations between population dynamics and specific weather variables. Main conclusions Range-edge populations appear more sensitive to changes in weather than those nearer the centre of species' distributions, but density dependence does not exhibit this pattern. Precipitation is as important as temperature in driving butterfly population dynamics. Intraspecific variation in the form and strength of sensitivity to weather suggests that there may be important geographical variation in populations' responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non-native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non-native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. Location Europe. Methods We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non-native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. Results Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in>5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. Main conclusions Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To project the potential European distribution of seven broad habitat categories (needle-leaved, broad-leaved, mixed and mediterranean forest, urban, grassland and cropland) in order to assess effects of land use, climate change and increase in CO2 on predicted habitat changes up to the year 2050. Location Europe. Method We modelled the response of European vegetation to changes in land use, climate and CO2 by combining the land-use model Dyna- CLUE (based on the CORINE land-cover data) and the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Two reforestation options were explored: maintaining the current range of tree species ( EFI) or promoting naturally occurring tree species ( NAT). Climate data from two general circulation models and two SRES scenarios ( A2 and B1) were used. The broad habitat types were classified according to a combination of land use and the dominant plant species. Results Our models predicted that croplands and grasslands are expected to decrease due to land-use change. Although climate change has a negative effect on needle-leaved forest, it is expected to maintain its area or even increase in the EFI reforestation option while mediterranean, broad-leaved and mixed forests are expected to increase markedly. All investigated drivers have shown some effect, but land use is the dominant contributor to broad habitat change except for needle-leaved and mixed which are mainly influenced by climate change. Main conclusions Land use is predicted to have the greatest effect on broad habitat distribution according to our simulations. Hence in most parts of Europe mitigating actions should focus on land-use change rather than climate change. According to our simulation, the effects of the different drivers are not in general additive. In some cases they act synergistically and in some cases antagonistically. The projected habitat changes are a valuable tool for species distribution modelling and are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Mountain regions are particularly well-suited for investigating the impact of climate change on species ranges because they encompass both upper and lower limits of species distribution. Here, we investigate changes in the elevational distribution of dung beetle species ( Coleoptera: Scarabaeoidea) in two separate mountain regions in Europe. Location South-western Alps ( France) and Sierra Nevada ( Spain). Methods We compared historical and current data on dung beetle distributions along elevation gradients for 30 species in the SW Alps and 19 species in the Sierra Nevada. We tested for significant changes between survey periods in three parameters: mean elevation and upper and lower range limits. Results We found up-slope range shifts for 63% and 90% of the species in the SW Alps and Sierra Nevada, respectively. Up-slope range shifts resulted mainly from expansion of upper range limits in the SW Alps and from changes of both range limits in the Sierra Nevada. The magnitudes of range shifts were consistent with the level of warming experienced in each region, but they also reflected the asymmetrical warming observed along the elevation gradients. Smaller changes were observed for species reaching their historical range limits at the higher elevations, associated with a non-significant increase in temperature between periods. Main conclusions The differences observed between regions are related to the geographical position of each mountain range, which determines the characteristics (including thermal tolerance) of the regional species pool, and the level of warming, which determines whether maximum thermal tolerance has been exceeded for the majority of species in the region. Our results highlight the importance of considering both the biogeography of the mountain and the species pool under study when assessing the sensitivity of species to future climate change in mountain regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Bioclimatic envelope models ( BEMs) for seven economically important tree species in Europe were independently validated using a hindcasting approach and fossil pollen records spanning the last 1000 years, including the Medieval Warm Period ( MWP), the Little Ice Age ( LIA) and the 20th century ( PRES). The aim was to determine the accuracy of combining BEMs and palaeoecological data to predict continental-scale changes in distribution, and the availability of fossil data to hindcast economically important species. Location Europe, 11 ° W-33 ° E, 33-72 ° N. Methods Eight types of BEMs were implemented in this study, covering most state-of-the-art modelling techniques. Present and palaeoclimatic data were obtained from the atmosphere-ocean global circulation model ECHO- G. The last millennium was divided into three climatically distinct periods: the MWP ( ad 900-1300), the LIA ( ad 1600-1850) and PRES ( ad 1900-2000). Models were calibrated for each period and validated with climatic and pollen data from the remaining periods. Successfully validated models were projected onto a 1° European grid. Results BEMs were successfully validated with independent data. The average area under the curve statistic showed strong model performance, indicating: (1) the strength of BEMs for modelling current and future distributions and, (2) the potential of fossil pollen records to undertake these approaches. European-scale 1°- gridded maps of probability of occurrence largely agreed with observed 20th-century distributions for most taxa, allowing the construction of past modelled species distributions. Main conclusions Results suggest a high potential for BEMs to be used to model future species distributions, and highlight the importance of palaeoecological data to independently validate these models, taking into account the scales at which these data operate. Although valid, BEMs showed poorer performance with heavily managed species and/or those growing in heterogeneous terrain or with discontinuous distributions. The last millennium in Europe was characterized by an increase in woody crop species and a decline of forest species, suggesting increasing land use by humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000 yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To assess whether the water availability measures commonly used in species distribution models might be misleading because they do not account for the hydrological effects of changes in vegetation structure and functioning. Location Europe. Methods We compared different methods for estimating water availability in species distribution models with the soil water content predicted by a process-based ecosystem model. The latter also accounted for the hydrological effects of dynamic changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including potential physiological effects of increasing CO2. Results All proxies showed similar patterns of water availability across Europe for current climate, but when projected into the future, the changes in the simpler water availability measures showed no correlation with those projected by the more complex ecosystem model, even if CO2 effects were switched off. Main conclusions Results from species distribution modelling studies concerning future changes in species ranges and biodiversity should be interpreted with caution, and more process-based representations of the water balance of terrestrial ecosystems should be considered within these models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To analyse the effects of nine species trait variables on the accuracy of bioclimatic envelope models built for 98 butterfly species. Location Finland, northern Europe. Methods Data from a national butterfly atlas monitoring scheme (NAFI) collected from 1991–2003 with a resolution of 10 × 10 km were used in the analyses. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were constructed for 98 butterfly species to predict their occurrence as a function of climatic variables. Modelling accuracy was measured as the cross-validation area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver–operating characteristic plot. Observed variation in modelling accuracy was related to species traits using multiple GAMs. The effects of phylogenetic relatedness among butterflies were accounted for by using generalized estimation equations. Results The values of the cross-validation AUC for the 98 species varied between 0.56 and 1.00 with a mean of 0.79. Five species trait variables were included in the GAM that explained 71.4% of the observed variation in modelling accuracy. Four variables remained significant after accounting for phylogenetic relatedness. Species with high mobility and a long flight period were modelled less accurately than species with low mobility and a short flight period. Large species (>50 mm in wing span) were modelled more accurately than small ones. Species inhabiting mires had especially poor models, whereas the models for species inhabiting rocky outcrops, field verges and open fells were more accurate compared with other habitats. Main conclusions These results draw attention to the importance of species traits variables for species–climate impact models. Most importantly, species traits may have a strong impact on the performance of bioclimatic envelope models, and certain trait groups can be inherently difficult to model reliably. These uncertainties should be taken into account by downweighting or excluding species with such traits in studies applying bioclimatic modelling and making assessments of the impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Species can respond to global climate change by range shifts or by phenotypic adaptation. At the community level, range shifts lead to a turnover of species, i.e. community reassembly. In contrast, phenotypic adaptation allows species to persist in situ, conserving community composition. So far, community reassembly and adaptation have mostly been studied separately. In nature, however, both processes take place simultaneously. In migratory birds, climate change has been shown to result in both exchange of species and adaptation of migratory behaviour. The aim of our study is to predict the impact of global climate change on migratory bird communities and to assess the extent to which reassembly and adaptation may contribute to alterations. Location Europe. Methods We analysed the relationship between current climate and the proportion of migratory species across bird assemblages in Europe. The magnitude of community reassembly was measured using spatial variation in the proportion of potentially migratory species. Adaptation was inferred from spatial variation in the proportion of potentially migratory species that actually migrate at a specific site. These spatial relationships were used to make temporal predictions of changes in migratory species under global climate change. Results According to our models, increasing winter temperature is expected to lead to declines in the proportion of migratory species, whereas increasing spring temperature and decreasing spring precipitation may lead to increases. Changes in winter and spring temperature are expected to cause mainly adaptation in migratory activity, while changes in spring precipitation may result in both changes in the proportion of potentially migratory species and adaptation of migratory activity. Main conclusions Under current climate change forecasts, changes in the proportion of migratory species will be modest and the communities of migratory birds in Europe are projected to be altered through adaptation of migratory activity rather than through exchange of species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim This study uses a high-resolution simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate to assess: (1) whether LGM climate still affects the geographical species richness patterns in the European tree flora and (2) the relative importance of modern and LGM climate as controls of tree species richness in Europe. Location The parts of Europe that were unglaciated during the LGM. Methods Atlas data on the distributions of 55 tree species were linked with data on modern and LGM climate and climatic heterogeneity in a geographical information system with a 60-km grid. Four measures of species richness were computed: total richness, and richness of the 18 most restricted species, 19 species of medium incidence (intermediate species) and 18 most widespread species. We used ordinary least-squares regression and spatial autoregressive modelling to test and estimate the richness–climate relationships. Results LGM climate constituted the best single set of explanatory variables for richness of restricted species, while modern climate and climatic heterogeneity was best for total and widespread species richness and richness of intermediate species, respectively. The autoregressive model with all climatic predictors was supported for all richness measures using an information-theoretic approach, albeit only weakly so for total species richness. Among the strongest relationships were increases in total and intermediate richness with climatic heterogeneity and in restricted richness with LGM growing-degree-days. Partial regression showed that climatic heterogeneity accounted for the largest unique variation fraction for intermediate richness, while LGM climate was particularly important for restricted richness. Main conclusions LGM climate appears to still affect geographical patterns of tree species richness in Europe, albeit the relative importance of modern and LGM climate depends on range size. Notably, LGM climate is a strong richness control for species with a restricted range, which appear to still be associated with their glacial refugia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Global climate change is increasingly influencing ecosystems. Long-term effects on the species richness and composition of ecological communities have been predicted using modelling approaches but, so far, hardly demonstrated in the field. Here, we test whether changes in the composition of bird communities have been influenced by recent climate change. Location Europe. Methods We focus on the proportion of migratory and resident bird species because these groups are expected to respond differently to climatic change. We used the spatial relationship between climatic factors and bird communities in Europe to predict changes in 21 European bird communities under recent climate change. Results Observed changes corresponded significantly to predicted changes and could not be explained by the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Alternative factors such as changes in land use were tested in a first approximation as well but no effects were found. Main conclusions This study demonstrates that global climate change has already influenced the species richness and composition of European bird communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Climate is an important determinant of species distributions. We assess different aspects of risk arising from future climate change by quantifying changes in the spatial distribution of future climatic conditions compared with the recent past. Location Europe. Methods A 10′ × 10′ resolution gridded data set of five climate variables was used to calculate expected changes to the area, distance and direction of 1931–60 climatic conditions under the HadCM3 climate model for four future climate scenarios based on different rates of greenhouse gas emissions (SRES scenarios). Three levels of tolerance ranges determined the thresholds for which future conditions are considered analogous to 1931–60 (pre-warming) conditions. Results For many parts of Europe, areas with pre-warming analogous climate conditions will be smaller and further away in the future than they are now. For any location in Europe, areas with pre-warming analogous mean annual temperature conditions will, on average, be reduced between 23.7% (B1 scenario) and 49.7% (A1FI scenario) by 2100 when assuming a medium tolerance range. The mean distance to these areas will, on average, increase between 272 km (B1) and 645 km (A1FI). These changes are more pronounced for temperature than for water availability variables and also for narrow tolerance ranges compared to wide tolerance ranges. Using a combined measure of both temperature and precipitation variables, areas with prewarming analogous conditions are predicted to be in a more northeasterly direction in the future, but there are considerable regional differences within Europe. Main conclusions The results suggest that, for some parts of Europe, the loss of area with any suitable climatic conditions represents the greatest risk to biodiversity, but in other regions the distances that species may have to move to reach suitable climatic conditions may be a greater problem. Quantifying the distance and direction in analyses of change of climatically suitable areas can add additional information for climate change risk assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims To describe the pattern of mean body size of native mammals in Europe, and to investigate its relationships with environmental predictors related to four hypotheses: (1) dispersal; (2) heat conservation; (3) heat dissipation; and (4) resource availability. Location Continental western Europe and Great Britain. Methods We used range maps to estimate the mean body size (average log mass) of mammals in 386 cells of 12,100 km2 each. Environmental conditions in each cell were quantified using nine historical, climatic and primary production variables. We attempted to tease apart the effects of these variables using correlation, multiple regression and spatial autocorrelation analyses. Results In the part of the continent covered by ice during the Pleistocene, body mass decreases southwards, and annual average temperature explains 73% of the variance in body size, consistent with the heat-conservation hypothesis. However, in warmer, non-glaciated areas the best predictor is an estimate of seasonality in plant production, but it explains only 18% of the variance. Carnivores, omnivores and herbivores show similar relationships, but the pattern for herbivores is substantially weaker than for the other groups. Main conclusions Overall, the relationship between mean body size and temperature is non-linear, being strong in cold environments but virtually disappearing above a temperature threshold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To produce a statistical stratification of the European environment, suitable for stratified random sampling of ecological resources, the selection of sites for representative studies across the continent, and to provide strata for modelling exercises and reporting. Location A ‘Greater European Window’ with the following boundaries: 11° W, 32° E, 34° N, 72° N. Methods Twenty of the most relevant available environmental variables were selected, based on experience from previous studies. Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to explain 88% of the variation into three dimensions, which were subsequently clustered using an ISODATA clustering routine. The mean first principal component values of the classification variables were used to aggregate the strata into Environmental Zones and to provide a basis for consistent nomenclature. Results The Environmental Stratification of Europe (EnS) consists of 84 strata, which have been aggregated into 13 Environmental Zones. The stratification has a 1 km2 resolution. Aggregations of the strata have been compared to other European classifications using the Kappa statistic, and show ‘good’ comparisons. The individual strata have been described using data from available environmental databases. The EnS is available for noncommercial use by applying to the corresponding author. Main conclusions The Environmental Stratification of Europe has been constructed using tried and tested statistical procedures. It forms an appropriate stratification for stratified random sampling of ecological resources, the selection of sites for representative studies across the continent and for the provision of strata for modelling exercises and reporting at the European scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioclimatic envelope models are often used to make projections of species’ potential responses to climate change. It can be hypothesized that species with different kinds of distributions in environmental niche and geographical space may respond differently to changes in climate. Here, we compare projections of shifts in species ranges with simple descriptors of species niche (position and breadth) and geographical (range size) distributions. Europe. The future distribution for 1200 European plant species were predicted by niche-based models using seven climate variables known to have an important role in limiting plant species distributions. Ecological niche properties were estimated using a multivariate analysis. Species range changes were then related to species niche properties using generalized linear models. Generally, percentage of remaining suitable habitat in the future increased linearly with niche position and breadth. Increases in potential suitable habitat were associated with greater range size, and had a hump-shaped relationship with niche position on temperature gradient. By relating species chorotypes to percentage of remaining or gained habitat, we highlighted biogeographical patterns of species sensitivity to climate change. These were clearly related to the degree of exposure according to regional patterns of projected climate change. This study highlights general patterns about the relationships between sensitivity of species to climate change and their ecological properties. There is a strong convergence between simple inferences based on ecological characteristics of species and projections by bioclimatic ‘envelope’ models, confirming macroecological assumptions about species sensitivity based on niche properties. These patterns appear to be most strongly driven by the exposure of species to climate change, with additional effects of species niche characteristics. We conclude that simple species niche properties are powerful indicators of species’ sensitivity to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]