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Aim Species richness depends on climate and land use. Maintaining locations with favourable climate and land-use patterns is critical for protecting biodiversity because the loss of either can reduce the species richness that an area supports. Currently, the Guiana Shield (GS) receives abundant precipitation and has relatively light land use. For species richness this constitutes a good–good combination of climate and land use, respectively. In contrast, much of eastern Brazil receives low levels of precipitation and has heavy land use, which is a bad–bad combination for species richness. Thus, the current distribution of precipitation and land use in northern South America is relatively favourable for biodiversity. Palaeoclimate and model studies suggest, however, that the precipitation patterns for the two regions have switched before and could switch in response to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper examines the potential consequences of reconfiguring climate with respect to existing land-use patterns using South America as an example. Location South America north of 20° S and east of the Andes. Methods Ecosystem structure and function are modelled under (1) historical climate and (2) altered precipitation following a shift in the location of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The distribution of precipitation, biomes, net primary productivity (NPP) and land use are then used to predict levels of species richness under the two climate scenarios. Results Climate changes could shift the distribution of vegetation and NPP such that conditions favourable for species richness in the GS region disappear. If land-use patterns were not prohibitive in eastern Brazil, the improved climate conditions there could compensate for the GS loss (assuming migratory barriers are overcome). Instead, existing land-use patterns cause the combined species richness projected for the two regions to plummet. Main conclusions Human activities will alter current configurations of land use and climate throughout the world. For species richness, new configurations are likely to include both positive and negative combinations of climate and land use. However, the irreversibility of past extinctions due to land-use patterns loads the dice against species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim To investigate whether trait-habitat relations in biological communities converge across three global regions. The goal is to assess the role of habitat templets in shaping trait assemblages when different assembly mechanisms are operating and to test whether trait-habitat relations reflect a common evolutionary history or environmental trait filters. Location Guiana Shield, South America; Upper Guinea Forest Block, West Africa; Borneo rain forests, Southeast Asia. Methods We compared large anuran amphibian data sets at both the regional and cross-continental scale. We applied a combination of three-table ordinations (RLQ) and permutation model-based multivariate fourth-corner statistics to test for trait-habitat relationships at both scales and used phylogenetic comparative methods to quantify phylogenetic signal in traits that enter these analyses. Results Despite the existence of significant trait-habitat links and congruent trait patterns, we did not find evidence for the existence of a universal trait-habitat relationship at the assemblage level and no clear sign for cross-continental convergence of trait-habitat relations. Patterns rather varied between continents. Despite the fact that a number of traits were conserved across phylogenies, the phylogenetic signal varied between regions. Trait-habitat relations therefore not only reflect a common evolutionary history, but also more recently operating environmental trait filters that ultimately determine the trait composition in regional assemblages. Main conclusions Integrating trait-habitat links into analyses of biological assemblages can enhance the predictive power and general application of species assembly rules in community and macroecology, particularly when phylogenetic comparative methods are simultaneously applied. However, in order to predict trait composition based on habitat templets, trait-habitat links cannot be assumed to be universal but rather have to be individually established in different regions prior to model building. Only then can direct trait-based approaches be useful tools for predicting fundamental community patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With increasing availability of plant distribution data, the information about global plant diversity is improving rapidly. Recently, Ulloa Ulloa et al. (2017) presented the first comprehensive overview of the native vascular flora of the Americas, yielding a total count of 124,993 native species. Of these, 51,241 occur in North America and 82,052 in South America. By combining these data with the information in the Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database of naturalized alien floras, we point out that for a complete picture of the regional and continental plant richness, the naturalized alien species need to be considered. Ignoring this novel component of regional floras can lead to an inaccurate picture of overall change in biodiversity in the Anthropocene. We show that North and South America might face contrasting challenges in terms of potential threats to biodiversity posed by alien plant species, because of the different past and present dynamics of invasions and predictions of future development. In total, there are 7,042 naturalized alien plants occurring in the Americas, with 6,122 recorded in North America and 2,677 in South America; if only introductions from other continents are considered additions to the native continental flora make up 6.9 and 1.4 %, respectively. Nevertheless, predictions of naturalized plant trajectories based on global trade dynamics and climate change suggest that considerable increases in naturalized plant numbers are expected in the next 20 years for emerging South American economies, which could reverse the present state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Our aims were: (1) to characterize the linear relationship between the proportion of woody dicotyledonous species with entire-margined leaves ( E) and mean annual temperature (MAT) from a southern temperate flora that still harbours many lineages that originated under warmer climates; (2) to compare this relationship with those developed from floras of different regions of the world; and (3) to contrast temperature predictions based on leaf margins of the native southern flora versus the naturalized alien flora, mostly of boreal origin. Location The temperate forest of southern South America (TFSA). Methods At each 1° latitudinal band, we estimated E based on species latitudinal ranges and MAT from both an isotherm map and a global temperature grid. We also calculated E from five local floras located between 40 and 43° S, and from the naturalized alien flora of Nahuel Huapi National Park in southern Argentina. Results We found a close relationship between E and MAT for the TFSA. Equations developed from floras of the Northern Hemisphere overestimated extant temperatures of this biome by 6–10 °C at both geographical and local spatial scales. On the other hand, MAT predictions from leaf margins of the alien flora were similar to the actual MAT. A published regression between E and MAT from tropical South America was remarkably similar to the one we estimated from the TFSA. This tropical equation predicted accurately the temperatures observed for this temperate biome based on leaf margins of the native flora. Main conclusions Despite massive plant extinction due to environmental cooling and biogeographical isolation during the Tertiary, leaf-margin analysis reveals that the flora of the TFSA still reflects its original development under the warmer conditions of western Gondwana and its past connections with low-latitude forest floras of tropical South America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]